建筑材料 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 22 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 朱芸 SAC：S1350524070001 zhuyun@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 由单边下行走向结构分化，赛道及龙头α开始显现 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建材行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述 投资要点： 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，化债力度不及预期，房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 | 1. 综述:行业压力仍存,结构性拐点逐步显现…………………………………………………………………………………… 5 | | --- | | 2. 消费建材:行业逐步探底,结构分化开始显现. | | 3. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a national-level "little giant" in precision injection molded parts, with expected capacity release in 2026 to support new products and expansion into new fields [5]. - The company has made a strategic investment in Moxun Technology, which focuses on the development and manufacturing of brushless motors and automotive actuators, enhancing production capabilities and synergies [6]. - The company has established strong relationships with leading automotive brands, including BYD, Huawei, and Tesla, and has seen significant growth in its new energy vehicle parts business, which accounted for 30% of sales in 2024 [6][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 286 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.63%, and a net profit of 63 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 56.86% [8]. - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 are 364 million yuan and 80 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 27.21% and 28.47% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.94 yuan in 2024 to 1.21 yuan in 2025, indicating a positive growth trajectory [9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leader in the domestic market for precision injection molded parts, with a market share increase from 25% to 30% for key products like wiper motor gears [6]. - The company is actively expanding its international market presence, with exports to countries such as France, Mexico, and Germany, achieving export revenue of 38.36 million yuan in 2024 [6]. - The company is committed to digital transformation and smart manufacturing, having established intelligent production workshops and implemented advanced manufacturing technologies [6].

Fixed Income - The new policy for "Science and Technology Innovation Bonds" (科创债) has led to banks, particularly state-owned banks, being the primary issuers, with a total issuance of 115 billion yuan from May 6 to May 16, 2025 [7][8] - The issuers of these bonds are predominantly high-rated central and state-owned enterprises, with AAA-rated bonds accounting for 83.39% of the total issuance [8] - The new policy has relaxed restrictions on the use of funds raised through these bonds, allowing for a broader range of applications, including loans for technology innovation [9] New Consumption - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [11] - The growth in retail sales was driven by essential consumption, with food and daily necessities showing robust growth, while discretionary spending on jewelry and communication devices also increased significantly [12] - Furniture and home appliances saw particularly strong growth, with retail sales increasing by 26.9% and 38.8% respectively [12] Metals and New Materials - The profitability of the gold and copper-aluminum sectors has significantly increased due to rising metal prices, while the energy metals sector has seen a substantial decline in profitability [14] - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 147.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.73% and 2.61% respectively [14] - Gold prices have shown a notable increase, with an average price of 560.8 yuan/gram in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year, and 673.5 yuan/gram in Q1 2025, up 37.2% year-on-year [15][19] Pharmaceuticals - Sanofi's licensing agreement for PD-1/VEGF dual antibody rights outside of China with Pfizer is valued at 1.25 billion USD upfront, with potential milestone payments of up to 4.8 billion USD [26][27] - The agreement is expected to enhance the company's valuation significantly, with a target market value of 59.5 billion yuan (approximately 64.5 billion HKD) [4][29] - Warner Pharmaceuticals is focusing on innovative antidepressants and the replacement of endangered medicinal materials, with a new antidepressant ZG001 showing promise as a fast-acting, non-addictive option [31][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights a significant overseas licensing deal for the PD1/VEGF dual antibody with Pfizer, exceeding market expectations with a transaction scale of over $1.25 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, along with a double-digit percentage sales share [7] - The company is expected to show substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues reaching RMB 19.1 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 109.7% [6][8] - The report anticipates a dramatic increase in net profit, forecasting RMB 9.8 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 368.2% [6][8] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position with core products like Teibiao and Mandi showing robust growth, with Teibiao's sales projected at RMB 5.06 billion in 2024, a 20.4% increase [7] - The report suggests that the company's innovative products and partnerships with various pharmaceutical companies will provide additional revenue growth opportunities [7] Financial Summary - The company's projected operating income for 2025 is RMB 19,102 million, with a gross profit margin of 86.5% [8] - The estimated earnings per share for 2025 is RMB 4.08, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 4.37 [6][8] - The report estimates a target market value of approximately RMB 595 billion, equivalent to about HKD 645 billion, based on the company's stable growth and the high elasticity provided by innovative products [7]

Investment Rating - The report gives an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The core investment logic suggests that the impact of centralized procurement on existing formulations is gradually clearing, and with a continuously enriched product matrix and structural upgrades, the company's performance is expected to return to a growth trajectory. Additionally, the exploration of diversified innovative models opens up new possibilities [5][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2001, the company has over 20 years of experience in the pharmaceutical field, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of chemical drug formulations, chemical raw materials, and traditional Chinese medicine formulations. The company was successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2021 [15]. Market Performance - The company aims to expand its high-end pharmaceutical industrialization platform with an "integrated raw material and formulation" advantage, solidifying its generic drug segment. The formulation products are the core contributors to the company's revenue, with significant contributions from the digestive, respiratory, and anti-infection sectors [6][38]. Key Products and Innovations - The antidepressant ZG001 is expected to become a new generation of fast-acting, non-addictive, oral antidepressants, which could revolutionize the treatment landscape for depression. The global antidepressant market is projected to reach $17.6 billion by 2030 [7]. - The company is also advancing research on endangered animal material substitutes, with the ZY-022 project set to progress to clinical trials in 2025 [8]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 178 million, 196 million, and 218 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 9.6%, and 11.3%, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 24, 21, and 19 times for the respective years [9][24]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched its first round of equity incentives in early 2025, which is expected to invigorate new development momentum. The incentive plan aims for revenue growth of no less than 10% and 20% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [22][11]. Research and Development - The company is continuously increasing its R&D investment, with a projected R&D expense ratio of 11.2% in 2024, reflecting a 4.0 percentage point increase year-on-year. This is primarily due to increased investment in R&D projects [28][30]. Competitive Landscape - The company maintains a strong domestic market position, with over 70% market share for its leading products, such as Entecavir. The integration of raw materials and formulations enhances its competitive edge in the market [35][36]. Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with 56 chemical drug formulation approvals and 19 traditional Chinese medicine formulation approvals as of the 2024 report date. The company plans to submit 21 generic drug registration applications in 2025 [45][46].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential in the precision motion control solutions sector [5]. Core Insights - The company specializes in customized precision motion control solutions, benefiting from the anticipated acceleration of the humanoid robot industry. In Q1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 136% year-on-year [5]. - The company has established a long-term strategic partnership with Mindray Medical, focusing on domestic substitution in the medical equipment sector, which is supported by favorable policies [5]. - The humanoid robot sector is seeing active product platform development, with the company making significant advancements in core technologies [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 224 million yuan, with a net profit of 39 million yuan. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 59 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.76% [5]. - The company forecasts revenues of 265 million yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 46 million yuan, and expects continued growth in subsequent years [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a stock incentive plan to motivate its core team, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [5]. - It is actively expanding its product offerings in the medical device sector and humanoid robotics, with ongoing collaborations with various industry players [5][8]. - The company is investing in new manufacturing facilities and establishing a global marketing network to enhance supply chain security and support business growth [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][43] Core Viewpoints - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with furniture and home appliances showing rapid growth [4][5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April reached 37,174 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. Excluding automobiles, the total was 33,548 billion, growing by 5.6% [4][5] - Urban and rural retail sales in April were 32,376 billion and 4,798 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5.2% and 4.7% [4][5] Summary by Category Overall Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April was 37,174 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. Excluding automobiles, the total was 33,548 billion, with a growth of 5.6% [4][5] Essential Consumption - Essential consumption showed steady growth. The retail sales of essential goods such as grain and oil increased by 14.0%, beverages by 2.9%, tobacco and alcohol by 4.0%, and daily necessities by 7.6% [16][22] Optional Consumption - In optional consumption, gold, silver, jewelry, and communication equipment saw rapid growth. Retail sales for gold and silver jewelry increased by 25.3%, and communication equipment by 19.9% [22][32] Other Consumer Goods - In other consumer categories, furniture and home appliances showed significant growth. Retail sales for furniture increased by 26.9%, and home appliances by 38.8%. Building materials grew by 9.7%, while petroleum and products decreased by 5.7% [32][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown overall profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant performance differentiation among sub-sectors. The gold and copper-aluminum sectors benefited from rising metal prices, while the energy metals sector experienced a substantial profit decline [5][6] - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.73%, and a net profit of 147.13 billion yuan, up 2.61% year-on-year. The gross margin was 11.46%, up 0.34 percentage points, while the net margin decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 4.04% [11][18] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector's revenue and profit increased year-on-year, with a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan and a net profit of 147.13 billion yuan [11] - The gross margin improved to 11.46%, while the net margin slightly decreased to 4.04% [11] 2. Price Changes in 2024 and Q1 2025 - Gold prices saw significant increases, with an average price of 560.8 yuan/gram in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year, and 673.5 yuan/gram in Q1 2025, up 37.2% year-on-year [24][28] - Industrial metals generally increased in price, with copper averaging 75,000 yuan/ton in 2024, up 10.5% year-on-year, and 77,000 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, up 11.5% year-on-year [28] - Energy metals prices fell significantly due to oversupply, with lithium carbonate averaging 91,000 yuan/ton in 2024, down 65% year-on-year [24][28] 3. Sector and Sub-Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.2% in 2024 and 12.0% in Q1 2025, ranking 15th and 1st among the Shenwan sectors, respectively [29] - The gold sector saw a profit increase of 29% year-on-year in 2024, while the lithium sector experienced a profit decline of 126.9% [16][22] 4. Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, the proportion of active funds holding non-ferrous metals stocks increased by 0.71 percentage points to 3.82% [32] - The top ten active fund holdings included companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, with a focus on gold sector companies [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of current policy support and high market attention, combined with the diversified innovation of relevant policies and issuance terms of science - innovation bonds, the credit risk of science - innovation bonds is generally low in the short term. Currently, the issuance of science - innovation bonds has not reached a large scale, especially the issuance scale of science - innovation bonds of equity investment institutions is relatively small. It is recommended to select issuers with good qualifications and pay attention to the bidding opportunities for the primary issuance of their science - innovation bonds. Structurally, it is advisable to focus on science - innovation bonds with innovative terms such as conversion options and coupon rate linkage, or those with corresponding credit risk mitigation certificates created by third - party credit enhancement institutions, to seek excess returns from the liquidity premium at the initial stage of the bonds' listing [3][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - rated Central State - owned Enterprises Predominate, and Equity Investment Institutions' Issuance Has Not Reached a Large Scale - **Expansion of Issuer Scope**: The "Notice No. 8" expands the scope of science - innovation bond issuers, including financial institutions, technology - based enterprises, and equity investment institutions. Exchanges and the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) have also adjusted their regulations on issuer types and scopes [6]. - **Characteristics of Issuers in the First Week**: Banks are the main issuers of science - innovation bonds in the first week after the new policy, mainly large national and joint - stock banks. The issuers of science - innovation bonds are characterized by high ratings and being central or local state - owned enterprises. From May 6 to May 16, 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of AAA - rated issuers was 147.9 billion yuan, accounting for 83.39% of the total scale; the cumulative issuance scale of central and local state - owned enterprises was 168.6 billion yuan, accounting for 95.04% of the total scale [3][11]. - **Issuance Status of Equity Investment Institutions**: As of May 16, 2025, the issuance scale of equity investment institutions' science - innovation bonds has not reached a large scale. A total of 10 bonds were issued, with a cumulative issuance scale of 420 million yuan. However, many equity investment institutions' science - innovation bonds are in the application or registration process. It is expected that the issuance scale of equity investment institutions' science - innovation bonds will increase significantly in the future [14]. 3.2 The New Policy on "Science - innovation Bonds" Relaxes the Restrictions on the Use of Raised Funds - **Exchange Regulations**: Previously, the proportion of raised funds invested in the science - innovation field by certain types of issuers should be no less than 70%. The new policy does not set specific requirements for the proportion of funds invested by newly - supported financial institutions and equity investment institutions. It also supports equity investment institutions in using raised funds for the establishment and expansion of private equity investment funds [18]. - **NAFMII Regulations**: Previously, at least 50% of the raised funds of use - specific science - innovation notes should be used to support the science - innovation field. The new policy only requires that at least 50% of the raised funds of equity investment institutions' science - innovation bonds be invested in science - innovation enterprises. It also supports technology - based enterprises to issue science - innovation bonds through their parent companies [18][19]. - **Use of Raised Funds by Different Issuers**: Banks mainly use the raised funds to issue loans in the science - innovation field, which helps guide long - term funds into the real science - innovation sector. Equity investment institutions mainly use the funds to invest in private equity investment funds, subscribe for fund shares directly, or replace their own capital contributions within one year, providing low - cost and long - term capital support for venture capital institutions [3][21]. 3.3 Creation of Diversified Innovative Terms - **Exchange and NAFMII Initiatives**: Exchanges and the NAFMII encourage issuers to innovate in terms of issuance methods, term structures, interest rate determination, and other aspects, and support the setting of innovative terms such as expected income pledge guarantee, intellectual property pledge guarantee, and convertible to equity [24]. - **Existing Innovative Terms**: The innovative terms of issued science - innovation bonds mainly include conversion options, over - issuance rights, etc. Some credit enhancement institutions have also created credit risk mitigation certificates (CRMW) for some issued science - innovation bonds. These terms can attract different types of investors, flexibly determine the issuance scale, enhance bond attractiveness, and reduce investors' risks [3][25]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions Select issuers with good qualifications and pay attention to the bidding opportunities for the primary issuance of their science - innovation bonds. Structurally, focus on science - innovation bonds with innovative terms or third - party credit enhancement [3][28].

Investment Insights - The report highlights a cautious outlook on risk assets following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, emphasizing the importance of US Treasury liquidity in the upcoming months [2][9] - The coal industry narrative is shifting from "elasticity" to "duration," with companies like Shaanxi Coal outperforming others due to lower extraction costs and stable performance [11][12] - The report indicates that the valuation gap between Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua is expected to narrow as the market recognizes the long-term value of low-cost coal producers [13][14] Company Summaries Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - The company is transitioning from an "elasticity narrative" to a "duration narrative," with a significant performance gap observed in 2024 compared to China Shenhua [11][12] - Shaanxi Coal's extraction costs position it favorably within the industry cost curve, enhancing its long-term investment value [12][13] - The projected net profits for Shaanxi Coal from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 190.2 billion, 199.3 billion, and 210.0 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.3, 9.8, and 9.3 [14] Jiyuan Precision (836720.BJ) - The company focuses on high-precision zinc-aluminum alloy die-casting products, with a projected net profit of 56.75 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.63% [16][21] - Jiyuan Precision is expanding its international presence through acquisitions, including the purchase of German company Dico to develop the European market [20][21] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for lightweight components in the electric vehicle sector, with significant revenue growth expected in automotive parts [17][21]