交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 13 日 今日焦点 | 传奇生物 | | | LEGN US | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carvykti 逐季放量能见度高，指引 | | 2Q26 经营层面 | 评级: 买入 | | 盈亏平衡，维持买入 | | | | | 收盘价: 美元 37.19 目标价: | 美元 | 72.00↓ | 潜在涨幅: +93.6% | | 丁政宁 | Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com | | | 2025 年指引强劲表现，维持买入评级：2025 年业绩指引包括：1）生命 科学业务收入增长 10-15%，毛利率保持在 50%以上；2）CDMO 业务收 入增长 15-20%，礼新项目首付款分成将全额确认为 2025 年收入；3）百 斯杰人民币计价收入增长 20-25%，毛利率提升至 45%左右。基于此，我 们调整公司 2025-26 年收入预测至 9.1 亿/7.9 亿美元、净利润预测至 2.4 亿/1.8 亿美元，扣除礼新交易影响后分別对应 14%/17%的 2025/26 年收 入增速。我们维持买入评级和 28.75 港元的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 0.90, indicating a potential upside of 53.3% from the current price of HKD 0.59 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's profit margins have improved due to better discount control and operational efficiency, with a stable performance expected in 2025 [6]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue decline of 8.0% to RMB 18.45 billion, but it expects to maintain a stable profit margin through cost control and efficiency improvements [6]. - The company plans to enhance its multi-channel strategy, including the introduction of new brands and digital transformation initiatives to capture new growth opportunities [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 20,064 million in 2023, RMB 18,454 million in 2024, and RMB 18,831 million in 2025, with a projected growth of 2.0% in 2025 [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 490 million in 2023 to RMB 546 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 11.1% [5][9]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 34.5% in 2025, up from 34.2% in 2024 [10]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 18.0% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 3,057.68 million [4][6]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 0.70 and HKD 0.48, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 7.66, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is facing significant challenges, including a large impairment leading to a larger-than-expected loss. The average selling price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, impacting revenue projections [2][7]. - The report highlights strong financial support from the controlling shareholder, which is expected to help the company navigate through the current downturn in the market [7]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting anticipated losses in 2024 but a potential recovery in 2026 [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 37,541 million in 2022 to RMB 20,788 million in 2024, with a further drop to RMB 17,657 million in 2025 before recovering to RMB 23,255 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn negative in 2024, with a forecasted loss of RMB 3,936 million, followed by a smaller loss of RMB 248 million in 2025, and a return to profit in 2026 with RMB 1,534 million [3][15]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is expected to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year to around RMB 38,000 per ton in 2024, significantly below cash costs [7][8]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the power station and inverter segments at RMB 88 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 102 billion [9]. - The target price of HKD 7.66 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 times for 2026, with the power station segment contributing approximately HKD 6.62 per share [7][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 14.02%, with a 52-week high of HKD 11.66 and a low of HKD 6.30 [6]. - The average trading volume is reported at 3.98 million shares per day, indicating active trading interest [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices due to supply-side reforms and seasonal factors affecting electricity prices, which could lead to improved financial performance in 2026 [7]. - The company is expected to reduce production to mitigate losses, with a forecasted output of 10,000 tons in 2025 [7][8].

| 52周高位 (港元) | 17.28 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 8.23 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 27,121.66 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 28.89 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 30.08 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 11.38 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 丁政宁 交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 12.80 | 港元 28.75 | +124.6% | | | 金斯瑞生物 (1548 HK) | | | | | | 2H24 核心业务板块增速复苏，新业务将迎增长拐点，维持买入 剔除传奇生物（LEGN US/买入）脱表影响后的 2024 全年收入和经调整净利润 基本符合业绩预告或我们的预期，生命科学和 CDMO 业务在 2H24 迎来增速反 弹，2025 年蓬勃生物和百斯杰有望迎来关键增长拐点。维持买入评级和 28.75 港元目标价。 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Legend Biotech (LEGN US), with a target price of $72.00, indicating a potential upside of 93.6% from the current price of $37.19 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve positive net profit of $0.26 million in Q4 2024, aligning with previous expectations, and has sufficient cash reserves of $1.1 billion to support operations until Q2 2026, when it is projected to reach operational breakeven [2][6]. - The current stock price does not fully reflect the long-term market potential of Carvykti, the company's key product, and has already incorporated expectations regarding competitive landscape changes [2][6]. - The report highlights significant sales growth for Carvykti, with Q4 2024 sales increasing by 17% and 15% in the U.S. and internationally, respectively, reaching $304 million and $31 million [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are updated to $1.061 billion, a 0.9% increase from previous estimates, with further growth expected to $1.480 billion in 2026 and $1.830 billion in 2027 [5][11]. - Gross profit is projected to be $676 million in 2025, with a gross margin of 63.8%, and is expected to improve to $951 million and 64.2% in 2026 [5][11]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is revised to a loss of $55 million, improving to a profit of $131 million in 2026 and $315 million in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [5][11]. Market and Product Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new production capacity and market penetration strategies for Carvykti, with expectations of sales reaching $1.92 billion in 2025 and $2.85 billion in 2026 [6][7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence by increasing the number of hospitals offering Carvykti treatment and enhancing education for primary care physicians [6][7]. - The report also suggests monitoring early data releases for other CAR-T therapies, such as DLL-3 and Claudin 18.2, which could provide additional growth opportunities [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 38.2% from the current price of HKD 97.45 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the widespread adoption of intelligent driving technology, with a strong new product cycle anticipated in 2025, including the launch of the upgraded G6 and G9 models [7]. - Xiaopeng Motors is projected to achieve a significant sales increase of 133% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 440,000 units, driven by competitive pricing strategies and enhanced intelligent driving features [7]. - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards, with expected revenues growing from RMB 30,676 million in 2023 to RMB 85,431 million in 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [6][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Xiaopeng Motors are as follows: RMB 26,855 million in 2022, RMB 30,676 million in 2023, RMB 41,457 million in 2024E, RMB 85,431 million in 2025E, and RMB 112,408 million in 2026E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 28.0%, 14.2%, 35.1%, 106.1%, and 31.6% respectively [6][11]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 10,376 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 630 million in 2025, with a projected profit of RMB 1,431 million in 2026 [6][11]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 150.81 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 97.45 and a low of HKD 26.05 [4][8]. Product Development - The upcoming models, G6 and G9, will feature significant enhancements in design, interior, and intelligent driving capabilities, with the G6 offering a range of six new body colors and the G9 adopting a new design language [7]. - The intelligent driving systems in both models will transition to a pure vision approach, eliminating the need for lidar, which is expected to enhance their market competitiveness [7]. Market Position - Xiaopeng Motors has recently surpassed its competitor, Li Auto, in weekly sales, indicating a strong market position among new energy vehicle manufacturers [7]. - The company is strategically expanding its product matrix to include models priced between RMB 100,000 to 150,000, aiming to capture a larger market share through competitive pricing and superior intelligent driving features [7].

此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM或https://research.bocomgroup.com 港股估值重估仍有空间，外围不确定性增强 两会政策指引符合预期，AI持续进化，港股"空中加油"： 市场关注重心或将回到宏观基本面和企业业绩验证，重视外围扰动与短期调整压力： 市场策略 港股周报 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 钱昊 Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852)37661853 2025年3月12日 2025年3月12日 2 • 政策支持与技术进步共振，港股过去一周续创新高，领跑全球主要股指：1）技术层面，中国内地AI持续进步，上周阿 里发布新AI开源模型+内地创业公司推出通用AIAgent智能体产品Manus，继续强化科技主线叙事；2）两会政策符合 预期，并延续了"924"以来的积极定调，产业政策层面强调对消费、科技领域的支持，而后续政策持续兑现有望成为 行情上涨的新催化剂。 • 海外流动性延续缓和，港股AI科技资产迎来资金配置机会。特朗普政策不 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 3 月 11 日 行业评级 领先 2 月乘用车销量同比增 26%，以旧换新政策+车企促销推动车市回暖 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 350.20 | 23.261 | 28.629 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 3.11 | 2.42 | 0.1 | | 理想汽车 | 2015 HK | 买入 | 120.34 | 113 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Leading" [4] Core Insights - The automotive market in February 2025 saw a retail sales increase of 26% year-on-year, driven by trade-in policies and promotional activities from car manufacturers [4][6] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) maintained a strong growth trend, recording 686,000 units sold in February, representing a year-on-year increase of 79.7% [6] - The market is expected to continue its recovery in March 2025, with significant month-on-month growth anticipated due to increased promotional efforts and new model launches from various manufacturers [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In February 2025, the total retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.386 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 26% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.8% [4] - The cumulative retail sales for January and February 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [4] Brand Performance - Domestic brands performed well, with retail sales of 910,000 units in February, marking a year-on-year increase of 51% [6] - The market share of domestic brands increased to 65.6%, up by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Export Trends - Passenger vehicle exports totaled 349,000 units in February, with a year-on-year increase of 11% [6] - New energy vehicles accounted for 34% of total exports, with 118,000 units exported, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality stocks in the passenger vehicle sector, particularly BYD and XPeng Motors, due to their strong product offerings and market positioning [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 18.00 to HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% [1][2]. Core Insights - The revenue is expected to achieve low double-digit growth in 2025, driven by prior investments that enhance revenue growth. Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize as the company continues to invest in fulfillment efficiency and market expansion [2][6]. - The report revises the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 upwards by 3.8% and 6.0%, respectively, based on a consistent price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, JD Logistics reported a revenue of RMB 52.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with adjusted net profit rising 23% to RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 4.3% [6][7]. - The company expects a revenue increase of 11% in 2025, supported by external business growth and prior investments enhancing market reach and fulfillment efficiency [6][9]. - The financial projections for 2025 estimate total revenue at RMB 202.1 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 22.5 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB 8.4 billion, maintaining a net profit margin of 4.1% [15][16]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The updated forecasts for 2025 include: - Revenue: RMB 202,053 million (up from RMB 194,624 million, +3.8%) - Adjusted net profit: RMB 8,384 million (up from RMB 7,910 million, +6.0%) [5][15]. - The report anticipates continued growth in external customer contributions, with external revenue projected to reach RMB 107,657 million in 2025 [9][15]. Market Position and Valuation - JD Logistics' market capitalization is approximately HKD 102.71 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 20.78% [4][11]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 16.34 and a low of HKD 7.55, indicating significant price movement within the year [4][11].