Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company,阅文集团 (772 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 24.85 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the delay in the 新丽 project impacts the 2024 profit expectations, while growth is anticipated in short dramas and derivative IP businesses [2]. - The company is expected to face a net loss of RMB 150-250 million for 2024, primarily due to non-cash goodwill impairment related to the acquisition of 新丽传媒 [5]. - Revenue expectations for 2024 have been slightly reduced by 1% to RMB 7.7 billion, with online business remaining stable and core IP operations expected to grow by 34% [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in core IP operations, driven by the integration of 腾讯动漫 and the launch of short dramas [5][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2026 are as follows: RMB 7,012 million (2023), RMB 7,695 million (2024E), RMB 7,882 million (2025E), and RMB 8,220 million (2026E), with a projected growth rate of 9.8% in 2024 [3][8][13]. - Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 1,130 million (2023), RMB 1,139 million (2024E), RMB 1,445 million (2025E), and RMB 1,568 million (2026E), with a notable increase of 23.7% in 2025 [3][8][13]. - The report indicates a decrease in the adjusted net profit expectation for 2024 by 18% to RMB 1.1 billion, reflecting a profit margin of 15% [5][8]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a projected adjusted net profit of RMB 1.4 billion for 2025, with a reference to a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for comparable quality content and copyright companies [5][8]. - The target price has been slightly adjusted from HKD 29.00 to HKD 28.00, maintaining a neutral stance on the stock [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Power (836 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 23.10, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HKD 18.38 [1][2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion. This growth is partly attributed to the increase in market trading volume and a decrease in the fire power price difference [2][7]. - The target price adjustment reflects a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 22% and 21% respectively, due to anticipated limitations on wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices [2][7]. - The report highlights that the current P/E ratio of 6.8 for 2025 is below the historical average, suggesting that the market has partially priced in uncertainties regarding electricity prices and utilization hours for 2025 [7]. Financial Forecasts - The updated financial forecasts for the company are as follows: - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.132 billion, with a slight decrease in the forecast for 2025 to HKD 105.084 billion, reflecting a 6.8% reduction from previous estimates [6][15]. - Operating profit for 2024 is estimated at HKD 21.965 billion, with a decrease in 2025 to HKD 21.947 billion, indicating a 19.2% drop from prior forecasts [6][15]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be HKD 12.727 billion, with a forecasted decline to HKD 13.954 billion in 2025, representing a 21.9% reduction from earlier predictions [6][15]. Operational Metrics - The company’s installed capacity is projected to increase significantly, with total capacity expected to reach 68,507 MW by 2024 and 78,507 MW by 2025, with a growing share of renewable energy [8]. - The report anticipates that the proportion of renewable energy in the total installed capacity will rise from 48% in 2024 to 53% in 2025 [8]. Valuation - The valuation breakdown indicates that the thermal power segment is valued at HKD 16.837 billion, while the renewable energy segment is valued at HKD 102.778 billion, leading to a total valuation of HKD 119.6 billion [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion [2][7] - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 23.1, reflecting a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price [2][7][13] - The adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are due to changes in wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices, with profit estimates reduced by 22% and 21% respectively [2][7] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.1 billion, with a slight decrease in operating profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 [6][15] - The expected net profit for 2024 is HKD 12.7 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.2% [6][15] - The company is projected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%, with dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.9% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7] Capacity and Sales Forecast - The total installed capacity is expected to increase from 68,507 MW in 2024 to 78,507 MW in 2025, with a significant rise in renewable energy capacity [8] - The total electricity sales volume is projected to grow from 207,638 GWh in 2024 to 223,796 GWh in 2025 [8] Valuation - The valuation of the thermal power segment is based on a 0.7x 2025E P/B ratio, while the renewable energy segment is valued at 8.0x 2025E P/E [9] - The total estimated value of the company is HKD 119.6 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 23.10 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20, reflecting a potential upside of 0.4% from the current price of $7.17 [1][19][22]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at RMB 10,015 million, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1,239 million due to increased overseas product investments [1][6][24]. - The company announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, representing a payout ratio of 29% and a dividend yield of 4%. Additionally, the share repurchase program has been extended to March 31, 2027, with an increased buyback amount of $200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2,636 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94 million [6][16]. - The adjusted gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 36%, reflecting a decline due to changes in revenue structure and increased operational costs [6][17]. - The company’s market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of $1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][4]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The revenue forecast for 2025 is maintained at RMB 10,015 million, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 at RMB 1,239 million and RMB 1,354 million, respectively [5][17]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1,217 million, with an operating profit margin of 12.2% [5][17]. Market Context - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 7%, with a 52-week high of $8.15 and a low of $4.84 [4][24]. - The company’s main platform, Momo, and its subsidiary, Tantan, continue to face challenges due to reduced user engagement and competition in the social networking space [6][16].

| 证券 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 107.52 | 美元 | 美元 135.00↑ | +25.6% | | | 富途控股 (FUTU US) | | | | | | 4 季度盈利超预期，2025 | | 年客户增长指引强劲 | | | 交银国际研究 公司更新 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% FUTU US MSCI中国指数 股份资料 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 4 季度盈利超预期。富途2024 年4 季度Non-GAAP 净利润为19.52 亿港元， 显著高于我们和市场预期，同比/环比增长 105%/40%，创下单季历史新 高。盈利超预期，主要由于 4 季度交易金额和孖展贷款增长均超预期。 2024 全年 Non-GAAP 净利润为 57.68 亿港元，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Futu Holdings (FUTU US) with a target price raised to $135.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.6% from the current closing price of $107.52 [1][5][12]. Core Insights - Futu's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, with Non-GAAP net profit reaching HKD 19.52 billion, a significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 105% and 40% respectively, marking a record high for a single quarter [5]. - The company reported strong guidance for customer growth in 2025, with a forecast of 800,000 new paying users, representing a growth rate of 33% based on the existing market [5]. - Futu's trading volume in Q4 reached HKD 2.89 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 202%, with 72% of the volume coming from U.S. stocks [5]. - The wealth management business is steadily improving, with assets under management growing to HKD 110.9 billion, accounting for 15% of client assets, an increase of 3 percentage points from 2023 [5]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the recent surge in investor interest in Chinese AI-related stocks, benefiting Futu's business structure and customer growth [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Futu are as follows: HKD 10,008 million in 2023, HKD 13,590 million in 2024, and HKD 16,812 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31%, 36%, and 24% respectively [4][14]. - Net profit is expected to grow from HKD 4,279 million in 2023 to HKD 6,556 million in 2025E, with corresponding growth rates of 46%, 27%, and 21% [4][14]. - The report indicates an increase in the price-to-earnings ratio from 27.3 in 2023 to 17.8 in 2025E, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][15].

美国 2025 年 2 月 CPI 同比增 2.8%，低于预期 2.9%和上月 3.0%；2 月 CPI 环比增 0.2%，预期 0.3%，上月 0.5%；2 月核心 CPI 同比 3.1%，预期 3.2%，上月 3.3%；2 月核心 CPI 环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%，上月 0.4%。 2 月 CPI 数据全面低于预期，缓解了市场近期对于滞胀的担忧。从数据 结构层面来看，本次 CPI 的回落来自于食品、能源、商品和服务全部分 项的贡献，一定程度上体现了近一段时间美债利率上涨和特朗普政府裁 员、缩减支出等收缩性行为对于需求端的抑制。尽管短期通胀有所放缓 ，但服务业价格，以及关税带来的商品价格上行隐忧犹存。 交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 14 日 今日焦点 | 全球宏观 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通胀暂缓，隐忧犹存—美国 | 2 | 月 | CPI | 点评 | 宏观策略 | | 李少金 | Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | | | | 后市观察：特朗普政策高度不确定性导致当前宏观能见度较低，美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20 from $7.40, indicating a potential upside of 0.4% [1][2][19]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1.24 billion due to increased investment in potential new overseas products [1][6]. - The company has announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, with a payout ratio of 29% and a dividend yield of 4%. Additionally, the share repurchase program has been extended to March 31, 2027, with an increased buyback amount of $200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, while the adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94.1 million [6][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 12%, a decline of 5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased proportion of revenue from new overseas applications and rising operational costs [6][16]. - The company expects a 4% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, with the main platform's live streaming business under pressure [6][17]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 10.015 billion, with the main platform MOMO expected to generate RMB 9.328 billion and Tantan projected at RMB 683 million [5][17]. - The adjusted gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 3.630 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 36.2% [5][17]. - The adjusted operating profit is forecasted to be RMB 1.217 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 12.2% [5][17]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of $1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][6]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $8.15 and a low of $4.84, with a year-to-date change of -7% [4][19].

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The strong foundation project in healthcare is expected to create new opportunities in the medical device sector, with a focus on innovative drugs, prescription drugs, and CXO during the annual report season [1][4]. - The report highlights the potential benefits of the healthcare strong foundation project, which aims to enhance grassroots medical services and infrastructure, thereby driving growth in the medical device market [4][6]. - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector still has significant room for recovery, given the favorable policies expected to be implemented in the second half of 2025, alongside the current low valuations of the sector [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 3.2% during the week of March 6-12, 2025, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index decreased by 2.8%, ranking 10th among 12 industry indices [4][8]. - Sub-sectors such as biotechnology, life sciences tools and services, and pharmaceuticals experienced declines of 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.6% respectively [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sub-sectors with potential for above-expectation performance, including innovative drugs, prescription drugs, and CXO [4]. - Specific companies highlighted for their growth potential include 康方生物 (CanSino Biologics), 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics), and 传奇生物 (Legend Biotech), which are expected to benefit from short-term catalysts and high growth [4][6]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of AI in healthcare, suggesting investment in companies with clear applications in health management [4]. Company Updates - 康方生物 has completed patient enrollment for its Phase III clinical trial of 卡度尼 (AK104) for high-risk liver cancer [6]. - 云顶新耀 has initiated the first human trial for its mRNA personalized cancer vaccine EVM16 [7]. - 翰森制药 received approval for a new indication for 阿美替尼 (Amehtinib) for non-small cell lung cancer [7]. - 中国生物制药's injection of 甲磺酸艾立布林 has been approved by the FDA for metastatic breast cancer treatment [7]. Valuation Overview - The report provides a valuation summary indicating that the pharmaceutical sector has a TTM P/E ratio of 11.3, while other sectors like life sciences tools and services have a TTM P/E of 7.3 [13].

交银国际研究 行业更新 房地产行业月报 低基数下销售跌幅收窄， 小阳春成色或可期待 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 新鸿基地产 | 16 HK | 买入 | 96.10 | 76.00 | 8.425 | 9.058 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 5.5 | | 华润置地 | 1109 HK | 买入 | 24.94 | 26.65 | 3.664 | 3.782 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 0.57 ...