交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 25 日 今日焦点 | 蔚来汽车 | | 9866 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 业绩不及预期，降本增效下 | 2 季度估值或迎来拐 | 评级: 买入 | | 点，维持买入 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 35.90 | 目标价: 港元 48.96↓ | 潜在涨幅: +36.4% | | 陈庆 | angus.chan@bocomgroup.com | | 2024 年业绩超市场预期，阿美乐表现亮眼：收入和净利润分别增长 21.3%/33.4%至 123 亿/43.7 亿元，阿美乐全年销售额同比增长 29%。管理层 对于 2025 年的指引包括：1）全年收入录得双位数增速，其中创新药产品收 入 100 亿元，同比增长 25%以上；2）阿美乐销售达到 60 亿元；3）派息率 与 2024 年相似水平。 创新管线蓄势待发，长期高成长能见度强：1）两款已出海 ADC：GSK 计划 于 4Q25 启动 B7H3 ADC 的注册研究，B7H4 ADC 今年读出 I 期数据，2026 年 进入注册临床；2）GLP-1 系列管线：GIP/GLP-1 双靶 ...

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the March FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations, indicating a challenging environment for rate cuts amid stagflation concerns [2][3] - The economic forecast has been downgraded, with 2025 GDP growth revised from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%, reflecting a stagflation narrative [6][8] - The Fed's decision to slow down balance sheet reduction from $25 billion to $5 billion per month is seen as a proactive measure to mitigate risks amid economic uncertainties [17][20] Interest Rate Outlook - The median interest rate forecast suggests two rate cuts, but the number of committee members supporting this has decreased from 15 to 11, indicating a higher threshold for future cuts [6][8] - The current unemployment rate of 4.1% is expected to rise to 4.4% by the end of 2025, which historically correlates with recessionary conditions [8][10] - The Fed faces pressure from the White House regarding high interest rates, which conflict with fiscal goals such as reducing the deficit and encouraging manufacturing return [22][27] Economic Projections - The economic projections indicate a shift towards a potential shallow recession, with the likelihood of rate cuts increasing as economic conditions evolve [22][27] - The Fed's economic outlook reflects a balance of risks, with inflation expectations rising among committee members, complicating the path for rate cuts [5][6] - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, which may impact economic stability and the Fed's decision-making process [3][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 44.00, indicating a potential upside of 84.1% from the current price of HKD 23.90 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve profitability again in 2024, driven by strong overseas sales of Furmonertinib and effective cost control measures. The focus for 2025 will be on the NDA submission for SAVANNAH in the U.S. and the progress of new product approvals in mainland China [3][7]. - Despite a decline in one-time collaboration income, the company has managed to maintain a positive outlook due to robust sales performance and cost management [3][7]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected at USD 708 million, with a slight decrease from previous estimates, while net profit is expected to rise significantly to USD 452 million, reflecting a 15% increase from prior forecasts [6][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 show a slight downward adjustment of 1-4% for revenue, but an increase in net profit projections due to ongoing cost control efforts [7][12]. - The company anticipates oncology and immunology revenue to reach USD 350-450 million in 2025, with a projected growth of over 30% in product market sales [7]. - The DCF model estimates the company's equity value at approximately USD 4.916 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 44.00 [8][12]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 5.99%, with a 52-week high of HKD 34.70 and a low of HKD 20.25 [5][11]. - The report highlights the significant growth in oncology product revenue, which increased by 65% year-on-year, primarily due to the strong market performance of Furmonertinib [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Anta (2020 HK) [2][6][7] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue reaching 70.83 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The guidance for 2025 indicates revenue growth in the high single to double digits [6][9] - The company is focusing on enhancing its global multi-brand strategy, with significant growth expected in Southeast Asia and an expansion target for overseas business to contribute 15% within five years [6][9] - The report projects a target price of 113.3 HKD, corresponding to a 22x P/E ratio for 2025, reflecting a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price [6][7] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 62.36 billion RMB in 2023, 70.83 billion RMB in 2024, and 77.16 billion RMB in 2025, with growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, and 8.9% respectively [5][9] - Net profit is expected to be 10.24 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 15.60 billion RMB in 2024, but projected to decrease to 14.08 billion RMB in 2025 [5][9] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 50%, with a proposed final dividend of 1.18 HKD per share for 2024 [6][9] Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue grew by 10.6% to 33.52 billion RMB, while FILA brand revenue increased by 6.1% to 26.63 billion RMB, indicating strong performance in the high-end market [6][9] - Other brands contributed significantly, with a 53.7% increase in revenue to 10.68 billion RMB, driven by brands like Descente and Kolon [6][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its product mix by increasing the proportion of lower-margin footwear products, which has led to a slight decline in gross margin to 62.2% [6][9] - The management is optimistic about the upcoming sports events in 2024, which are expected to boost advertising and promotional expenditures [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 583, indicating a potential upside of 8.0% from the current price of HKD 540 [1][4][50]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are expected to rapidly integrate into Tencent's ecosystem, contributing to revenue growth. The anticipated revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 713.8 billion, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year increase [2][8]. - The financial performance for Q4 2024 shows total revenue of RMB 172.4 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, surpassing market expectations. The adjusted net profit reached RMB 55.3 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth in domestic gaming revenue, which increased by 23% year-on-year, driven by new game launches and the performance of established titles [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: RMB 609.0 billion - 2024: RMB 660.3 billion - 2025E: RMB 713.8 billion - 2026E: RMB 767.9 billion - 2027E: RMB 818.9 billion - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 157.7 billion - 2024: RMB 222.7 billion - 2025E: RMB 244.8 billion - 2026E: RMB 268.6 billion - 2027E: RMB 289.5 billion [3][52]. Segment Performance - The report details segment performance for Q4 2024: - Value-added services revenue: RMB 79.0 billion, up 14% year-on-year - Social network revenue: RMB 29.8 billion, up 6% year-on-year - Financial technology and enterprise services: RMB 56.1 billion, up 3% year-on-year - Marketing services revenue: RMB 35.0 billion, up 17% year-on-year [8][45]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 19 times for 2025, with an expected share buyback of HKD 80 billion and a dividend of HKD 41 billion, enhancing shareholder returns [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Corporation (3888 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 33 to HKD 50, indicating a potential upside of 18.1% [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Kingsoft's Q4 profits exceeded expectations, with a projected 31% revenue growth in the gaming segment for 2024, driven by new game releases. The operating profit margin for the gaming business is expected to improve by 15 percentage points to 42% [2][6]. - The application of AI features in WPS is anticipated to continue driving rapid growth in WPS 365 and personal subscription services. The report adjusts profit forecasts based on a 10x/25x P/E ratio for gaming/WPS businesses and an increase in Kingsoft Cloud's market value [2][6]. - The report notes that WPS had a total of 41.7 million paid users by the end of 2024, a 17% year-on-year increase, with AI functionalities enhancing user engagement and conversion rates [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the revenue forecast is set at RMB 11,495 million, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous estimate. The gaming segment is expected to generate RMB 5,475 million, a 6% increase, while WPS is projected to reach RMB 6,019 million, a 3% increase [5][13]. - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 9,542 million, with a gross margin of 83%, up from 80% in the previous forecast [5][13]. - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted at RMB 4,079 million for 2025, with an adjusted operating margin of 35% [5][13]. Stock Performance - Kingsoft's stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 25.85%, with a 52-week high of HKD 46.90 and a low of HKD 20.10 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised from HKD 33 to HKD 50, indicating a potential upside of 18.1% from the current price of HKD 42.35 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's fourth-quarter profits exceeded expectations, with a total revenue growth of 21% year-on-year, driven by a 26% increase in gaming revenue and a 17% increase in WPS revenue. The adjusted operating profit rose by 47% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 18% due to optimized expense ratios [6][7]. - The gaming business is expected to achieve a 31% revenue growth in 2024, supported by new game releases. The WPS AI features are anticipated to continue driving rapid growth in WPS 365 and personal subscription services [2][6]. - The report projects revenue for 2025 to reach RMB 11,495 million, with a gross profit of RMB 9,542 million, reflecting a gross margin of 83% [5][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 10,318 million, with a significant increase in adjusted operating profit to RMB 4,079 million, maintaining a robust operating margin of 35% [5][13]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1,819 million, with a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 2,756 million, indicating a net profit margin of 24% [5][13]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 56,188.29 million, with a year-to-date stock price change of 25.85% [4].

2024 年游戏业务在新游的带动下实现 31%的收入增长，游戏业务运营利 润率同比提升 15 个百分点至 42%。预计 2025 年在新游的带动下仍有稳 定增长的潜力。 交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 20 日 今日焦点 | 金山软件 | | | | | 3888 HK | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 季度利润好于预期，预计 | | 2025 | 年 | WPS 及游 | 评级: 买入 | | 戏稳健增长 | | | | | | | 收盘价: 港元 42.35 | 目标价: | | 港元 | 50.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +18.1% | | 孙梦琪 | | | | mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com | | WPS AI 功能应用有望继续推动 WPS 365 及 WPS 个人订阅业务快速增 长。 基于 2025 年游戏/WPS 业务 10 倍/25 倍市盈率，以及金山云市值上升， 我们将目标价从 33 港元上调至 50 港元，维持买入。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 41.6% from the current price of HKD 95.10 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, and the report is optimistic about the upcoming product cycle in 2025. Although revenue was slightly below expectations, the automotive gross margin was 10.0%, surpassing market expectations of 9-9.5% due to scale effects and efficient cost control [2][8]. - The company is expected to narrow its net loss from RMB 10.376 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.790 billion in 2024, with a projected net loss of RMB 613 million in 2025 [2][16]. - Xiaopeng Motors has guided for Q1 2025 sales of 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles, with March sales expected to be between 31,000 and 33,000 vehicles, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 30.676 billion in 2023 to RMB 86.172 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 110.9% [7][16]. - The company plans to launch new models, including the G6 and G9, which are expected to enhance sales and improve gross margins [8]. - The report anticipates that the strong product cycle and effective cost management will lead to a turnaround in profitability by Q4 2025 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 72.79, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current price of RMB 58.65 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-recurring performance met expectations, with a significant increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company experienced a 60.9% year-on-year revenue growth in 2023, but a projected decline of 46.7% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [3][15]. - The report highlights a rapid increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 24% of total revenue last year, up 19 percentage points year-on-year, with a peak of 47% in the fourth quarter [7][8]. - The company is focusing on improving production efficiency and reducing costs, with a target of increasing the average conversion efficiency of TOPCon batteries by over 0.5% this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 18,657 million in 2023, RMB 9,952 million in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 15,737 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 591 million in 2024 to RMB 1,718 million by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [3][15]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, with a target gross margin of 19.6% by 2026 [17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks third in total shipments and first in N-type shipments within the industry, indicating a strong market position [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's overseas expansion plans, particularly the delayed project in Oman, which is expected to commence operations by the end of the year [7][8]. - The recent surge in battery prices due to increased demand is expected to support the company's recovery and profitability in the second half of the year [7].