Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales growth of consumer goods has shown a marginal decline, primarily due to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the diminishing effects of the "old-for-new" policy. However, with the release of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve, leading to a gradual recovery in consumer demand for the food and beverage sector. The white liquor industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with a low likelihood of further demand decline. The report suggests appropriate positioning in the white liquor sector due to its relatively low valuation and stable chip structure. In the mass consumer goods sector, new consumption targets are expected to maintain high growth rates throughout the year, with a focus on new channels, new products, and new markets [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods in September 2025 increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points from August. The food and beverage sector is anticipated to gradually improve as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [4][5]. Subsector Performance - In September 2025, the retail sales growth for grain and oil products, beverages, and tobacco and alcohol was 6.3%, -0.8%, and 1.6% year-on-year, respectively. The beverage sector showed relatively weak consumption, while the tobacco and alcohol sector saw improved growth due to pre-holiday stocking and a slight relaxation of alcohol bans [4][10][12]. Quarterly Insights - In Q3 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to Q2. The food and beverage sectors experienced varying growth rates, with grain and oil products at 6.7%, beverages at 1.4%, and tobacco and alcohol at 0.8%, indicating a general softening in consumer demand [5][6]. Specific Company Insights - The white liquor sector is nearing a demand bottom, with recent policy relaxations leading to a recovery in consumption. Meanwhile, companies like Ximai Foods are accelerating the launch of new products and channels, which is expected to enhance profit elasticity and certainty in 2026 due to sustained raw material cost advantages [6].

行 业 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房二手房成交面积环比增长，编 制 智 能 化 市 政 基 础 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.10.19 开发投资额降幅扩大，房企资金压力犹存 2025 年 1-9 月，房地产开发投资额 6.77 万亿元，同比-13.9%（1-8 月-12.9%）， 其中住宅开发投资额同比-12.9%，降幅持续扩大，新开工数据下滑、三季度以来 销售回暖不及预期仍影响投资意愿。2025 年 1-9 月，房地产开发企业到位资金 7.23 万亿元，同比-8.4%（1-8 月-8.0%），其中国内贷款、自筹资金、定金及预收 款、个人按揭贷款累计同比分别-1.4%、-9.3%、-10.3%、-10.6%（1-8 月+0.2%、 -8.9%、-10.5%、-10.5%），除定金及预收款外其他来源资金同比降幅均扩大或增 速转负，在销售数据走弱情况下，房企销售回款压力仍较大。 《新房成交面积同环比下降， ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The Q3 economic slowdown aligns with expectations, with GDP growth at 4.8% year-on-year, matching consensus forecasts, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1% [3][4] - The second industry has weakened significantly, particularly in the construction sector, which is expected to show a notable decline in GDP [3][4] - Exports have rebounded, boosting industrial production, while the service sector remains resilient, with industrial added value increasing by 1.3% year-on-year in September [3][4] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - New housing transactions have weakened, with a significant year-on-year decline in sales volume observed in major cities, indicating a challenging market environment [11][13] - The average transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities fell by 3% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 32% and 28% compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively [13][34] - Second-hand housing prices have also shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [33][37] Group 3: Fixed Income and Fiscal Policy - National public budget revenue increased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, while expenditure grew by 3.1% [16][17] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments from debt limits, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [16][18] - Tax revenue has shown steady growth, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty revenue, which rose by 342.4% year-on-year [17][19] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The electric vehicle and battery management sectors are experiencing growth, with companies like Huazhi Jie expanding into new application areas such as new energy vehicles and drones [22][24] - The coal industry is witnessing a price surge, with thermal coal prices nearing 750 yuan per ton, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [44][45] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Guobang Pharmaceutical, is showing steady growth in performance and profitability, indicating a robust market position [47]

Economic Overview - Q3 2025 GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while quarter-on-quarter growth was 1.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate narrowed the gap with real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a mild recovery in price levels[3] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value, driven by sectors like automotive and food manufacturing[3][15] - The service sector maintained resilience with a production growth rate of 5.6% year-on-year, consistent with previous values[3][15] Consumer Behavior - Disposable income growth slowed slightly to 5.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, with a consumption rate of 68.1% in Q3 2025, lower than the levels in 2023-2024[20] - Retail sales in September saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%, with a monthly decline of 0.4 percentage points to 3.0%[4][23] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, with real estate investment down 13.9%[14][27] - Infrastructure investment saw a significant drop, with broad infrastructure down 8.0% year-on-year, while narrow infrastructure improved to -4.7%[6][33] Future Economic Outlook - To achieve an annual growth target of approximately 5.0%, Q4 2025 GDP needs to reach 4.6%[7][35] - The government is focusing on policy financial tools, including a 500 billion yuan initiative to stimulate investment and consumption[7][35] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy changes that may fall short of expectations and an unexpected recession in the U.S. economy[8][36]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with cement dispatch rates and grinding mill operation rates also low compared to historical averages[13] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining historical highs and PTA rates at historical lows[22] - Building demand remains weak, while automotive sales show signs of recovery, with rolling sales of passenger cars increasing year-on-year[31] Price Trends - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a downward trend[42] - International commodity prices are mixed, with oil prices declining while copper, aluminum, and gold prices are rising[39] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show an expanding year-on-year decline, with a 3% decrease in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and declines of -32% and -28% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are weakening, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities: Beijing -38%, Shanghai -23%, and Shenzhen -34%[62] Export Performance - Export growth for the period before October 19 is estimated at 2-3%, with port throughput increasing by 8.1% year-on-year[65] Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.41% as of October 17[67] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 22,018 million yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[69] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[72]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the new housing sales prices in 70 cities have seen a month-on-month decline, while the year-on-year decline has narrowed. The first-tier cities have experienced an expanded decline in new housing prices. For second-hand housing, the month-on-month decline has remained stable, but the year-on-year decline has also narrowed. The overall real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at halting the decline [8][29]. Summary by Sections New Housing Price Trends - In September 2025, the month-on-month decline in new housing prices for first, second, and third-tier cities was -0.3%, -0.4%, and -0.4% respectively, with the overall decline for 70 cities at -0.4%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to August. Year-on-year, the declines for first, second, and third-tier cities were -0.7%, -2.1%, and -3.4%, with the overall year-on-year decline for 70 cities narrowing by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7% [5][15][17]. Second-Hand Housing Price Trends - The month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices for 70 cities was -0.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month. Year-on-year, the decline was -5.2%, which is a reduction of 0.3 percentage points. The first, second, and third-tier cities saw year-on-year declines of -3.2%, -5.0%, and -5.7% respectively, with all declines narrowing compared to August [6][21][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong credit ratings that can cater to improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, China Overseas Land & Investment, and others. It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group. Additionally, it highlights quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8][30][32].

Group 1: Haibo Sichuang - Haibo Sichuang is a leading provider of electrochemical energy storage systems and solutions, benefiting from the industry's shift from price-driven to value-driven models [1][12][23] - The company has established a strong market position in the domestic energy storage system integration market, ranking second in 2023 and first in 2022 and 2021 in terms of shipment volume [12][24] - The global energy storage market is expected to exceed 270GW by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of over 40%, driven by strong demand from new application scenarios such as communication bases and data centers [1][23][36] Group 2: Huazhi Jie - Huazhi Jie is a leading enterprise in the electric tool components market, expanding into new application areas such as new energy vehicles and drones [2][24] - The company has established a strong market position in the electric tool components sector, with increasing demand from the global electric tool industry since January 2025 [2][24] - Huazhi Jie is enhancing its global supply capabilities and optimizing customer service, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position in the future [2][24] Group 3: Zhongli Co., Ltd. - Zhongli Co., Ltd. is a leader in the electric forklift industry in China, focusing on green, intelligent, and digital transformation [3][24] - The company has maintained the highest sales volume of electric warehouse forklifts for 12 consecutive years and lithium battery forklifts for 6 consecutive years, showcasing its strong market position [3][24] - Zhongli is actively expanding into overseas markets, with plans for factories in Southeast Asia and strategic partnerships in Europe and America [3][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly and has entered the horizontal part of the second L-shaped curve [7] - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7] - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation: bond yields and the stock market are expected to rise continuously [7] Summary by Related Catalogs General Public Budget Income - In September, general public budget income increased by 2.6% year - on - year, with central income up 3.5% and local income up 2.0% [4] - Tax revenue increased by 8.7% year - on - year, maintaining positive growth for 6 consecutive months. Except for some taxes, most tax types improved compared to August [4] - Securities trading stamp duty revenue continued to soar, with a year - on - year increase of 342.4% due to active stock market trading and a low base in 2024 [4] - Enterprise income tax increased by 19.6% year - on - year, driven by market vitality and improved industrial enterprise profits [4] - Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.4% year - on - year in September [4] Expenditure - In September, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.1% year - on - year, with central expenditure up 3.2% and local expenditure up 3.1% [5] - Infrastructure expenditure items such as urban and rural community affairs and agriculture, forestry and water affairs still declined, but the decline narrowed, driving the increase in fiscal expenditure [5] Governmental Fund Budget Income - In September, governmental fund income increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with central income up 2.4% and local income up 5.9% [6] - Land transfer income decreased by 1.0% year - on - year in September, and the cumulative decline from January to September was 4.2%, reaching the peak in 2025 [6] Expenditure - In September, governmental fund expenditure increased by 0.4% year - on - year, with central expenditure up 19.7% and local expenditure down 0.3% [6] - Land transfer expenditure decreased by 3.1% year - on - year in September, and the growth rate of governmental fund expenditure slowed down compared to August [6] Market - The market was insensitive to fundamental data. On October 17, affected by the US regional bank credit fraud event, the long - term yield trended downwards during the day [7] - The bond market trading may still be affected by the performance of the equity market and the implementation of regulations on fund redemption fees [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guobang Pharmaceutical is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.47 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.17%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 670 million yuan, up 15.78% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14.94% [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability, with projected net profits of 995 million yuan, 1.235 billion yuan, and 1.391 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.6, 10.2, and 9.0 for the respective years, indicating high valuation attractiveness [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.444 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.39% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 23.17% to 215 million yuan. The gross margin was 27.00%, up 1.64 percentage points [4][5] - The company maintained a research and development expense ratio of 3.43%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points, indicating improved cost management [5] - The company’s revenue from domestic operations was 1.735 billion yuan (57% of total), while overseas revenue was 1.291 billion yuan (43% of total) as of H1 2025, reflecting a strong global market presence [6] Valuation Metrics - The projected revenue for 2025 is 6.786 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.2%. The gross margin is expected to be 24.8%, and the net margin is projected at 14.7% [7][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve to 11.4% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 12.9% by 2027 [7][10]

Group 1: Overall Market Activity - The number of disclosed control transactions has reached 118 since the implementation of the "Merger Six Guidelines," more than doubling compared to the previous year[2] - Approximately 40% of these transactions have been completed, indicating a significant increase in market activity[14] - The majority of transactions (over 80%) have utilized the agreement transfer method, which is simpler and more certain[15] Group 2: Seller Characteristics - Over 40% of the companies involved in control transactions have a market capitalization below 3 billion yuan[3] - High-end manufacturing sectors, including machinery, pharmaceuticals, and computers, have seen the most control changes[17] - More than 30% of the target companies report revenues below 500 million yuan, with over 50% showing net losses, highlighting a clear intent for restructuring[32] Group 3: Buyer Dynamics - Private enterprises have become more active in control transactions, accounting for over 60% of buyers[36] - More than 50% of transactions involve acquiring over 20% of the target company[35] - Control transactions valued below 3 billion yuan represent 42.39% of the total, indicating a trend towards lower-value acquisitions[41] Group 4: Emerging Trends - New acquisition models are emerging, including private equity and collaborations between state-owned and industrial capital[39] - Notable cases include unicorn companies acquiring listed firms as a capital operation strategy, reflecting a shift in market dynamics[39]