资金跟踪系列之一百六十三 个人投资者继续退潮，ETF 阶段成为主要买入力量 2025 年 04 月 07 日 ➢ 宏观流动性：上周(20250331-20250403)美元指数继续回落，中美利差"倒 挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均下降，通胀预期回落。对于海外而 言，流动性边际有所收紧(3 个月日元与美元/欧元与美元互换基差均回落)。对于 国内而言，银行间资金面月末偏紧、后转松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)有所收窄。 ➢ 交易热度、波动与流动性：市场交易热度与波动率均继续回落。行业上，机 械、消费者服务等板块的交易热度均处于 80%分位数以上，计算机、通信、传媒 的波动率仍处于 80%历史分位数以上。 ➢ 机构调研：电子、银行、计算机、家电、医药、商贸零售等板块调研热度居 前，各类板块的调研热度环比均下降。 ➢ 分析师预测：全 A 的 2025/2026 年净利润预测同时被继续下调。行业上， 非银、商贸零售、有色等板块 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调。指数上，沪深 300、 中证 500、创业板指、上证 50 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被下调。风格上，大盘 /中盘成长、大盘/中盘/小盘价值的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the issuance of new special-purpose bonds in 2025, analyzes which urban investment platforms have received the bonds, whether there is financing substitution, and the performance of the outstanding bonds of urban investment platforms that have received the bonds [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025, How is the Issuance of Special-Purpose Bonds? - As of March 31, 2025, the issuance of new special-purpose bonds this year is 960.2 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 22%. The issuance scale is higher than that in 2024, but the overall progress is still relatively slow compared with 2022 and 2023 [10]. - This year, 843 billion yuan of ordinary special-purpose bonds and 117.2 billion yuan of special new special-purpose bonds have been issued [11]. - In 2025, urban and rural construction and transportation construction remain the key directions for special-purpose bonds. Land reserve special-purpose bonds were restarted this year [15]. 3.2 2025, Which Urban Investment Platforms Have Received Special-Purpose Bonds? - As of March 21, 2025, since 2019, a total of 2,513 bond-issuing urban investment platforms across the country have received special-purpose bond projects. Among them, 587 bond-issuing urban investment platforms have received special-purpose bond projects since 2025, including 4 first-time recipients in 2025 and 248 in 2024 [19]. - In terms of administrative levels, district-level and prefecture-level cities are the main recipients, accounting for 42% and 30% respectively. In terms of subject ratings, AA+ and AA subjects account for a relatively large proportion, accounting for 32% and 46% respectively [23]. - Since 2019, self-review and self-issuance provinces such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan have more bond-issuing urban investment platforms in undertaking special-purpose bond projects, significantly more than non-self-review and self-issuance provinces. In non-self-review and self-issuance provinces, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Chongqing have more than 100 bond-issuing urban investment platforms, accounting for more than 60% of all bond-issuing urban investment platforms [22]. - In terms of the scale of special-purpose bond funds obtained by different urban investment platforms, prefecture-level city urban investment platforms have the highest scale, followed by district-level and municipality-level platforms. The scale of special-purpose bond funds obtained by AA urban investment platforms is much smaller than that of AAA urban investment platforms [28][29]. - For urban investment projects in districts and counties with relatively weak financial resources, the importance of special-purpose bond funds is significantly higher [31]. - Self-review and self-issuance provinces have a larger overall scale of special-purpose bond funds than non-self-review and self-issuance provinces. In non-self-review and self-issuance provinces, Chongqing's urban investment platforms received nearly 20 billion yuan in special-purpose bond funds in 2025, and Hubei's urban investment platforms received more than 10 billion yuan [35][36]. 3.3 Does Receiving Special-Purpose Bonds Have Financing Substitution? - Before 2023, the net financing of urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds was significantly higher than that of those that did not. However, since 2024, due to the large overall maturity scale of urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds, the net financing of these platforms has declined significantly, and this trend continued in 2025 [50]. - In self-review and self-issuance provinces, the net financing of urban investment platforms has declined in the past two years, and the net financing of urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds is weaker than that of those that did not. In non-self-review and self-issuance provinces, the net financing of most provinces' urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds was better than that of those that did not in 2025 [54]. - In self-review and self-issuance provinces, the growth rate of interest-bearing debt of urban investment platforms declined in 2024, and the growth rate of most urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds was lower than that of those that did not. In non-self-review and self-issuance provinces, the growth rate of interest-bearing debt in some provinces still increased [55]. 3.4 How is the Performance of the Outstanding Bonds of Urban Investment Platforms that Have Received Special-Purpose Bonds? - A total of 1,355 urban investment platforms with outstanding bonds participated in receiving special-purpose bonds this year. The scale of the outstanding bonds of urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds this year is 8.7 trillion yuan, of which about 95% of the outstanding bonds of urban investment platforms have a valuation of less than 3%, and 5% have a valuation of more than 3% [57]. - In terms of credit spreads, the proportions of credit spreads within 50bp, 50-100bp, 100-200bp, and 200-300bp are 22%, 64%, 13%, and 1% respectively [57]. - Bonds with slightly higher valuations are mostly private placement bonds, or those with a subject rating of AA or below, or those with a longer term. A list of public bonds in 2025 that have received special-purpose bonds, with a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a credit spread of more than 150BP is provided for market reference [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the liquor industry, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others [4][5]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a transformation driven by instant retail, which is expected to reduce the survival space of traditional distributors and retail stores, leading to increased concentration [1][11]. - Consumer demand has reached a bottom, with structural upgrades being the main supporting logic for recovery, dependent on the activity level of the economy [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of brand proximity to consumers, with increased investment in consumer-facing marketing, although short-term profit growth may be impacted [2][18]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Trends - The 112th National Sugar and Wine Products Trade Fair showed a decline in traditional trading functions, with a shift towards trend forums and new product showcases [10]. - Instant retail is becoming a crucial channel for brand promotion, with significant growth in the sector, projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [12][15]. - The report notes that the liquor industry is seeing a reduction in supply, with a stable profit growth forecast for 2024, despite a slight decline in production [27][31]. Section 2: Company Strategies - Wuliangye is reforming its marketing system and adjusting its organizational structure to enhance direct sales and control over pricing [38][39]. - Water Well Square is focusing on a dual-brand strategy to cater to different market segments, with plans to launch high-end products priced above 800 yuan [42][43]. - Shede Liquor is implementing an employee stock incentive plan to align interests and drive performance, with ambitious growth targets set for the coming years [47][48]. Section 3: Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts for key companies, indicating stable revenue and profit growth for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Jinhuijiu, while some mid-tier brands face profitability challenges [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive recommendation for the company's convertible bond, suggesting active participation in the new bond subscription with an expected listing price of around 124 yuan, reflecting a 25% premium on the first day of trading [3][13]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in distributed photovoltaic (PV) brackets, with a strong international market strategy and a focus on product quality and technological innovation [5][35]. - The company has shown resilience in a challenging market, with a slight increase in revenue despite a decline in net profit, indicating potential for recovery and growth [4][29]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the photovoltaic industry, driven by increasing installation capacities and favorable market conditions [19][41]. Summary by Sections Convertible Bond Basic Situation Analysis - The convertible bond has an issuance scale of 500 million yuan, with a bond and issuer rating of A+/A+. The conversion price is set at 12.93 yuan, and as of April 3, 2025, the conversion value is 99.3 yuan. The bond has a maturity of 6 years and an average annual coupon of 1.23 yuan, with a maturity compensation rate of 14% [1][10]. Subscription Value Analysis - The company operates in the photovoltaic auxiliary materials industry, with a current PE (TTM) of 29 times and a PB (MRQ) of 3 times, placing it above average among peers. The company's market capitalization is 3.516 billion yuan, and it has shown a stock price increase of 2.88% year-to-date [3][13]. Company Operating Situation Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.76%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.49% to 98 million yuan [4][29]. Competitive Advantage Analysis - The company has established a strong international presence with marketing headquarters and service centers in multiple countries. It has also achieved various international certifications for its products, enhancing its competitive edge [5][35][36]. Industry and Market Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase in installed capacity. The report anticipates that by 2030, China's photovoltaic installed capacity could reach 317 GW, driven by declining costs and improved technology [19][41]. Fundraising Project Analysis - The funds raised from the convertible bond issuance will be allocated to projects such as the establishment of an intelligent factory for distributed photovoltaic brackets and an energy research and development center, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing production capabilities and innovation [40][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report mainly analyzes the bond market situation in the week of April 7, 2025, including the changes in wealth management scale, bond market leverage ratio, bond fund duration, and bond issuance progress [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Wealth Management Scale Increased by Over 50 Billion Yuan Week-on-Week - After the quarter-end, funds flowed back to wealth management institutions, driving the recovery of the wealth management scale. As of April 6, the week-on-week increase was 518.7 billion yuan, reaching 29.5 trillion yuan. The scale of fixed-income and cash management wealth management products increased significantly [1][9]. - The newly issued scale of wealth management products decreased slightly compared with the previous week. The performance comparison benchmarks of most newly issued products declined, while the average annualized yield of wealth management products increased slightly, and the net value breakage rate continued to decline [15][18]. 2. The Leverage Ratio of the Interbank Bond Market Continued to Rise - The leverage ratio of the interbank bond market increased slightly this week. After the quarter-end disturbances subsided, the interbank liquidity improved significantly, and the level of bank fund lending continued to rise. As of April 3, the interbank bond market leverage ratio was 107.4%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [2][22]. - The leverage ratio of the exchange bond market fluctuated at a high level. As of April 3, it was 124.6%, up 0.02 percentage points from the previous week [2][22]. 3. The Duration of Interest Rate Bond Funds Resumed to Rise - This week, the bond market priced in the implementation of the tariff policy and speculated on the central bank's hedging measures. The 10-year treasury bond yield dropped to 1.72%. On the one hand, the unexpected implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy increased market risk aversion, which was beneficial to the bond market. On the other hand, after the quarter-end, the funding situation eased, and the market's expectation of the central bank's loose hedging policy increased, leading to a significant recovery in the bond market [3][25]. - The duration of interest rate bond funds increased this week. As of April 3, the median duration of partial interest rate bond funds was 3.74 years, up 0.18 years from the previous week; the median duration of pure interest rate bond funds was 3.82 years, up 0.22 years from the previous week. The duration of credit bond funds also increased slightly [3][28][30]. 4. The Issuance Progress of Replacement Bonds Reached 72.5% - From April 7 - 11, 2025, the disclosed planned issuance of interest rate bonds was 232.9 billion yuan, with a net financing of -612.7 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of -574.6 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds was 201.9 billion yuan, with a net financing of 163.9 billion yuan; the issuance of policy bank bonds was 31 billion yuan, with a net financing of -202 billion yuan [4][34]. - As of April 3, the total issuance and planned issuance scale of replacement bonds this year was 1.4507 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 72.5%. The cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 34.9%, and that of new special bonds was 21.8% [4][36][40]. 5. The Issuance Plan of Local Bonds in Q2 2025 - As of April 3, 2025, 28 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government had disclosed their Q2 local government bond issuance plans, with a total planned issuance scale of 1.9793 trillion yuan. In April, May, and June, the planned issuance scales were 777 billion yuan, 538.4 billion yuan, and 663.8 billion yuan respectively [5][44]. - By region, the top three regions in terms of the planned issuance scale of local bonds in Q2 2025 were Hunan (247.6 billion yuan), Shandong (191.7 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (168.2 billion yuan); the top three regions in terms of the planned issuance scale of refinancing special bonds were Guizhou (83.1 billion yuan), Yunnan (65.5 billion yuan), and Hunan (65.3 billion yuan) [44].

清源转债：分布式光伏支架龙头 2025 年 04 月 07 日 可转债打新系列 ➢ 转债基本情况分析： 清源转债发行规模 5.00 亿元，债项与主体评级为 A+/A+级；转股价 12.93 元，截至 2025 年 4 月 3 日转股价值 99.3 元；发行期限为 6 年，各年票息的算 术平均值为 1.23 元，到期补偿利率 14%，属于新发行转债高水平。按 2025 年 4 月 3 日 6 年期 A+级中债企业债到期收益率 6.18%的贴现率计算，债底为 83.41 元，纯债价值一般。其他博弈条款均为市场化条款，若全部转股对总股本的摊薄 压力为 14.12%，对流通股本的摊薄压力为 14.21%，存在一定的摊薄压力。 ➢ 中签率分析： 截至 2025 年 4 月 3 日，公司前三大股东 HONG DANIEL、厦门金融控股 有限公司、王小明分别持有占总股本 29.73%、15.07%、5.40%的股份，前十大 股东合计持股比例为 55.95%，根据现阶段市场打新收益与环境来预测，首日配 售规模预计在 60%左右。剩余网上申购新债规模为 2.00 亿元，因单户申购上限 为 100 万元，假设网上申购账户数量介于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue reaching 3.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 429 million yuan, up 6.49% year-on-year [3]. - The growth drivers for 2024 include the expansion of industrial power supply business driven by AI development and the increasing demand for electric vehicle charging products due to supportive policies [3][4]. - The company has diversified its product lines, particularly in the charging pile sector, which saw a revenue increase of 43% year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 39.20%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.98%, down 1.15 percentage points [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.03 billion yuan from industrial power supply, a 13% increase, and 12.16 billion yuan from charging piles, a 43% increase [4]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates revenues of 4.068 billion, 5.371 billion, and 6.956 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 34.0%, 32.0%, and 29.5% respectively [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 560 million, 778 million, and 1.054 billion yuan, with growth rates of 30.5%, 39.1%, and 35.4% respectively [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in downstream sectors such as data centers and charging piles [5].

资产配置月报 202504 四月配置视点：港股估值与美元流动性冲击敏感度 2025 年 04 月 07 日 ➢ 港股估值与美元流动性冲击敏感度 2. 基于过去五年估值的历史分位数，各板块的低估程度排序为：恒生医疗保 健>恒生消费>恒生科技>恒生高股息率。与美股 MAG7 相比，港股科技龙头仍 有重估向上空间；高股息板块、消费板块与医药板块估值也都处于历史相对低位。 3. 美元指数与中国香港市场表现之间存在明显负相关关系。对于流动性正向冲 击（美元指数下行），恒生科技指数和恒生医疗保健指数更为敏感；对于流动性负 向冲击（美元指数上行），恒生医疗保健指数与恒生消费指数更为敏感。 ➢ 大类资产量化观点 1. 权益：工业景气度有所见底，四月或先下后上。景气度 3 月整体继续下探， 金融中银行、非银景气度都进一步下降，工业景气度有见底迹象。信用扩张有望 延续，结构上政府债券继续发力；从结构来看，政府债券高增继续支撑社融增长， 企业信贷表现回暖。3 月市场整体回撤，流动性处下降趋势，波动率有抬升苗头。 2. 利率：4 月 10Y 国债利率或下行 5BP 至 1.77%。经济增长因子继续回落， 通货膨胀因子有所回落，债务杠 ...

农业行业点评 关税落地，中国关税反制影响几何？ 2025 年 04 月 07 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：徐菁 研究助理：杜海路 邮箱：xujing@mszq.com 邮箱：duhailu@mszq.com 执业证号：S0100523120004 执业证号：S0100123070067 ➢ 事件概述：自 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等 关税"后，2025 年 4 月 4 日，国务院关税税则委员会公告称，对原产于美国的 所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。现行保税、减免税政 策不变，此次加征的关税不予减免。 ➢ 【牛肉】关税反制抬高美国牛肉进口价格，落实推进肉牛产业纾困。2024 年 12 月商务部开启进口牛肉进行保障措施调查，中央一号文件首次提出帮助肉牛 纾困。2025 年 3 月国务院宣布对美部分商品加征关税，其中对牛肉加征 10%， 持续释放积极信号。 ➢ 海外牛周期有望景气同步，并通过进口传导的方式影响国内牛价。在过去两 年由于中国消费增速放缓，南美主要国家主动进行了产能清算；而美国 2020- 2022 年连续三年的干旱造成牧场退化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in its autonomous new energy vehicles, with significant growth in sales and a clear strategy for electrification and global expansion [2][3][4]. - The company aims to achieve a total sales target of 3 million vehicles by 2025, with 1 million of those being new energy vehicles [2]. - The report highlights the successful launch of new models such as the Avita 06 and the Deep Blue S09, which are expected to contribute to sales growth [3]. Sales Performance - In March, the company's wholesale sales reached 268,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a month-on-month increase of 66.0% [1]. - The cumulative wholesale sales for the first three months of the year were 705,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [1]. - The company's autonomous passenger vehicle sales in March were 166,000 units, up 5.5% year-on-year and 75.8% month-on-month [2]. New Energy Vehicle Growth - The wholesale sales of autonomous new energy vehicles in March reached 125,000 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 135.2% and a month-on-month increase of 214.4% [2]. - Cumulative sales for new energy vehicles in the first three months were 232,000 units, representing an 80.0% year-on-year growth [2]. Global Expansion - The company's overseas sales in March were 50,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 50.3% [4]. - The company plans to establish 8 new operating entities and 16 logistics nodes overseas by 2025, aiming to enhance its global market presence [4]. Financial Forecast - The report projects revenues of 163 billion, 188.6 billion, and 212.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 6.1 billion, 8.2 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan for the same years [5][21]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.61, 0.83, and 1.09 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][21].