资产配置月报 202504 四月配置视点：港股估值与美元流动性冲击敏感度 2025 年 04 月 07 日 ➢ 港股估值与美元流动性冲击敏感度 2. 基于过去五年估值的历史分位数，各板块的低估程度排序为：恒生医疗保 健>恒生消费>恒生科技>恒生高股息率。与美股 MAG7 相比，港股科技龙头仍 有重估向上空间；高股息板块、消费板块与医药板块估值也都处于历史相对低位。 3. 美元指数与中国香港市场表现之间存在明显负相关关系。对于流动性正向冲 击（美元指数下行），恒生科技指数和恒生医疗保健指数更为敏感；对于流动性负 向冲击（美元指数上行），恒生医疗保健指数与恒生消费指数更为敏感。 ➢ 大类资产量化观点 1. 权益：工业景气度有所见底，四月或先下后上。景气度 3 月整体继续下探， 金融中银行、非银景气度都进一步下降，工业景气度有见底迹象。信用扩张有望 延续，结构上政府债券继续发力；从结构来看，政府债券高增继续支撑社融增长， 企业信贷表现回暖。3 月市场整体回撤，流动性处下降趋势，波动率有抬升苗头。 2. 利率：4 月 10Y 国债利率或下行 5BP 至 1.77%。经济增长因子继续回落， 通货膨胀因子有所回落，债务杠 ...

农业行业点评 关税落地，中国关税反制影响几何？ 2025 年 04 月 07 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：徐菁 研究助理：杜海路 邮箱：xujing@mszq.com 邮箱：duhailu@mszq.com 执业证号：S0100523120004 执业证号：S0100123070067 ➢ 事件概述：自 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等 关税"后，2025 年 4 月 4 日，国务院关税税则委员会公告称，对原产于美国的 所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。现行保税、减免税政 策不变，此次加征的关税不予减免。 ➢ 【牛肉】关税反制抬高美国牛肉进口价格，落实推进肉牛产业纾困。2024 年 12 月商务部开启进口牛肉进行保障措施调查，中央一号文件首次提出帮助肉牛 纾困。2025 年 3 月国务院宣布对美部分商品加征关税，其中对牛肉加征 10%， 持续释放积极信号。 ➢ 海外牛周期有望景气同步，并通过进口传导的方式影响国内牛价。在过去两 年由于中国消费增速放缓，南美主要国家主动进行了产能清算；而美国 2020- 2022 年连续三年的干旱造成牧场退化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in its autonomous new energy vehicles, with significant growth in sales and a clear strategy for electrification and global expansion [2][3][4]. - The company aims to achieve a total sales target of 3 million vehicles by 2025, with 1 million of those being new energy vehicles [2]. - The report highlights the successful launch of new models such as the Avita 06 and the Deep Blue S09, which are expected to contribute to sales growth [3]. Sales Performance - In March, the company's wholesale sales reached 268,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a month-on-month increase of 66.0% [1]. - The cumulative wholesale sales for the first three months of the year were 705,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [1]. - The company's autonomous passenger vehicle sales in March were 166,000 units, up 5.5% year-on-year and 75.8% month-on-month [2]. New Energy Vehicle Growth - The wholesale sales of autonomous new energy vehicles in March reached 125,000 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 135.2% and a month-on-month increase of 214.4% [2]. - Cumulative sales for new energy vehicles in the first three months were 232,000 units, representing an 80.0% year-on-year growth [2]. Global Expansion - The company's overseas sales in March were 50,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 50.3% [4]. - The company plans to establish 8 new operating entities and 16 logistics nodes overseas by 2025, aiming to enhance its global market presence [4]. Financial Forecast - The report projects revenues of 163 billion, 188.6 billion, and 212.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 6.1 billion, 8.2 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan for the same years [5][21]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.61, 0.83, and 1.09 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 14.645 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.115 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.15% and 16.61% respectively [1] - The company aims to expand its market share and is optimistic about industry recovery in 2025, driven by improved consumer demand and strategic initiatives in high-end non-consumption channels [4] - The company has experienced a slight decline in gross margin due to increased depreciation costs from the new factory and pressure on beer prices, with a gross margin decrease of 0.57 percentage points [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.937 billion yuan, 15.206 billion yuan, and 15.457 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.0%, 1.8%, and 1.7% respectively [5] - Expected net profits for the same years are 1.285 billion yuan, 1.340 billion yuan, and 1.388 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.3%, 4.3%, and 3.6% respectively [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company maintained its market share despite a 0.75% decline in sales volume, achieving a market share increase of approximately 0.3 percentage points [2] - The company is actively promoting high-end products and enhancing its product matrix and digital marketing strategies to adapt to changing market conditions [2][4] Financial Metrics - The company reported a slight decrease in beer price per ton by 1.14%, with revenue from high-end, mainstream, and economy beers showing varied performance [2] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 104% for 2024, indicating strong cash flow management [4]

非银行业周报 20250406 险企持续举牌，提升权益投资收益空间 2025 年 04 月 06 日 ➢ 头部险企举牌持续，有望提升权益投资弹性。1）新华保险 4 月 2 日发布公 告，公司于 3 月 26 日通过二级市场集中竞价交易方式增持北京控股无限售条件 流通股 150000 股，占比北京控股已发行普通股总股本 0.01%，增持后持有比例 达到总股本的 5%，合计投资北京控股港股普通股账面余额达 16 亿元。2）分账 户来看，传统险账户、分红账户和万能账户投资规模分别为 11.37 亿元、4.48 亿 元、0.15 亿元，占比分别为 71.1%、28.0%和 0.9%，传统险账户、分红账户和 万能账户的平均持有期分别为 13.28 年、8.07 年、3.69 年。从持股结构看，投 资期限较长传统险账户占比较高，体现了长期股票投资匹配负债久期，做好资负 匹配的思路，我们认为长期来看有望提升权益投资弹性。3）本次举牌是新华保 险近期继举牌国药股份、上海医药、海通证券、杭州银行后的又一次举牌，整体 体现了青睐高股息标的，为"长期股权投资"储备底层标的的思路和"长钱长投" 的风格，分账户的精细化管理也有助于提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration has significantly increased global trade costs, leading to a substantial adjustment in commodity prices. However, domestic demand resilience is expected to offset external risks and support industrial metal prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that the domestic manufacturing PMI for March remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, indicating strong internal demand that may cushion the impact of external pressures [2]. - Supply constraints in copper due to protests blocking access to key mining operations have exacerbated supply tightness, while domestic copper cable manufacturers have seen an increase in operating rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes significant price declines for industrial metals, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changing by -6.37%, -11.18%, -6.37%, -5.49%, -10.73%, and -2.48% respectively [1][12]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index reported a decrease of 2.26 USD/ton, reflecting ongoing supply tightness due to protests affecting key mining routes [2][39]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Western Mining based on their performance and market conditions [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, while lithium prices have seen a decline amid stable downstream demand [3][84]. - Nickel prices are projected to continue rising due to tight supply conditions, despite some fluctuations in demand from the stainless steel sector [3][56]. Precious Metals - The report expresses optimism for precious metal prices, particularly gold, which has seen a rise due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [4][67]. - Silver prices are under pressure in the short term but are expected to rebound once economic conditions stabilize [4][67]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with EPS estimates for 2024E to 2026E showing growth for companies like Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt, with PE ratios indicating favorable valuations [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the electricity sector, including Sanxia Energy, Changjiang Electric Power, and China Nuclear Power, while providing a "Cautious Recommendation" for China General Nuclear Power and others [24][25]. Core Insights - The electricity sector outperformed the market this week, with the public utility sector index rising by 2.55% and the electricity sub-sector by 2.81%, ranking first among 31 primary sectors [1][9]. - The report highlights the recent government policy aimed at optimizing pricing mechanisms for electricity, gas, and water, which is expected to enhance the sustainability of public utility pricing [2][22]. - The national carbon market has stabilized at a price of 100 yuan per ton, with increased trading activity and mandatory green certificate consumption, indicating a maturing green certificate market [2][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The public utility sector index closed at 2346.99 points, up 58.31 points, while the electricity sub-sector closed at 3129.43 points, up 85.49 points, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [1][9]. - Sub-sector performance included increases in wind power (3.49%), thermal power (3.61%), and hydropower (2.92%) [1][16]. Policy Developments - The Central Committee and State Council issued guidelines to improve pricing mechanisms for public utilities, focusing on market-driven pricing for electricity, gas, and water [2][22]. - The guidelines propose a phased approach to market-oriented pricing reforms for various power sources and emphasize the establishment of a unified green power certificate trading system [2][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on defensive sectors with strong dividend yields, highlighting companies like Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, and Funiu Co., which are expected to maintain good growth in Q1 2025 [3][22]. - Specific recommendations include favoring companies with significant wind power assets and low-cost thermal power operations, while also monitoring potential mergers and acquisitions in the sector [22][23]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Sanxia Energy projected at 0.25 yuan for 2023, Changjiang Electric Power at 1.11 yuan, and China Nuclear Power at 0.55 yuan [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.946 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 178 million yuan, a decrease of 2.99% [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog exceeding 10 billion yuan, with significant contributions from its renewable energy, gas turbine, and robotics segments [2][3]. - The gas turbine segment is expected to grow due to its high efficiency and flexibility, while the exoskeleton robot segment shows potential in various industries [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.946 billion yuan, with a slight growth of 2.71% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 178 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 2.99% [1][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.62% [1]. Business Segments - The wind power business generated revenue of 2.469 billion yuan in 2024, up 7.92% year-on-year, while the photovoltaic business reported revenue of 901 million yuan, down 6.68% [2]. - The company has secured orders worth 2.583 billion yuan as of February 2025, with 2.265 billion yuan from wind power equipment and 106 million yuan from photovoltaic equipment [2]. Growth Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.572 billion yuan, 6.878 billion yuan, and 8.127 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 41%, 23%, and 18% [3][4]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 314 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 584 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 76%, 44%, and 29% [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 for 2024, decreasing to 17, 12, and 9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][10]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected to decline from 2.2 in 2024 to 1.5 by 2027 [4][10].

电力设备及新能源周报 20250406 "对等关税"靴子落地，钠电池商用方案实现突破 2025 年 04 月 06 日 ➢ 本周（20250331-20250404）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周下跌 3.51%，涨跌幅排名第 30，弱于上证指数。 本周风力发电指数涨幅最大，太阳能指数跌幅最大。风力发电指数上涨 3.49%， 核电指数上涨 0.77%，储能指数下跌 1.08%，工控自动化下跌 1.60%，新能源 汽车指数下跌 2.36%，锂电池指数下跌 4.82%，太阳能指数下跌 5.75%。 ➢ 新能源车：中科海钠钠电池商用方案落地，"技术+产业"实现双重突破 25 年中科海钠推出【中科海钠·海星】钠离子电池商用车解决方案。技术性能 方面，钠离子电池循环寿命提升至 8000 次，充电时间缩短至 20-25 分钟，电 量利用率提升至 85%。经济性方面，钠离子电池容量从 423 度电降至 226 度 电，减重 1 吨，全生命周期总输出电量提升 30%，充放电损耗成本降低 45%。 产业化进程方面，广西南宁的 10 兆瓦时电网侧储能项目稳定运行，预计 2025 年二季度完成小批量测试，三季度批量推广，20 ...

Policy Overview - The current market's core conflict has shifted to the struggle between economic downturn and policy countermeasures, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market as a macroeconomic indicator[3] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to set the tone for new reserve policies[3] Currency Stability - The exchange rate's bottom line is expected to remain unbroken, serving as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a critical level of 7.35 (USD/CNY) to be defended[3][4] - A depreciation of the RMB is seen as more harmful than beneficial, potentially exacerbating capital outflow risks[3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A reduction in reserve requirements (RRR) is anticipated to occur before interest rate cuts, with structural monetary policy tools being prioritized[5] - The focus on structural monetary policy is to support low-cost funding in key consumption areas while maintaining exchange rate stability[5] Consumption Focus - Increasing service consumption is identified as a priority policy option, as traditional investment potential is diminishing[5] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to better guide market expectations compared to traditional investment stimuli[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, fluctuations in exports, and unforeseen U.S. trade policies[5]