| 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.43 | | 资产负债率% | 56.59 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 5,677/4,640 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-05 10-05 11-05 12-05 01-05 02-05 03-05 04-05 05-05 06-05 07-05 08-05 09-05 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 山西焦煤 沪深300指数 (收益率) 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 05 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.05 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 10.51/5.97 | | 市净率 | 1.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.12 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 32,714 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,812.51/12,590.56 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 相关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 1.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87.89 million yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin improved by 9.53 percentage points to 33.49% [6] - The core IDC business continues to show robust growth, effectively offsetting short-term revenue pressures from other internet services [6] - The company has expanded its IDC service revenue to 895 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.22% [6] - The company is actively optimizing its asset structure and expanding its renewable energy projects, with 310 domestic grid-connected projects and approximately 283 MW connected [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company expects total revenue to reach 2.512 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.0% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 208 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 67.6% year-on-year [5] - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 1.262 billion yuan, with corresponding EV/EBITDA multiples of 21, 16, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company focuses on its Prophet platform to provide AI capabilities, with a product structure that includes standardized and customized offerings. The revenue split for 2024 is expected to be 70% from the Prophet platform and products, and 30% from application development and other services [7]. - The management team is composed of top-tier technical experts with backgrounds in leading internet companies, which enhances the company's competitive edge [7]. - The standardization strategy is expected to drive rapid customer expansion in the short term and ensure long-term product stickiness and competitiveness [7][10]. - The company is also expanding into the consumer electronics market, which could generate over 2 billion yuan in annual revenue [7]. - The company is positioned as a domestic counterpart to Palantir, with similarities in product form, customer expansion, and development stages [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: - 2023A: 4,204 million yuan - 2024A: 5,261 million yuan - 2025E: 6,852 million yuan - 2026E: 8,819 million yuan - 2027E: 11,226 million yuan - The expected revenue growth rates are 36.4% for 2023A, 25.1% for 2024A, 30.2% for 2025E, 28.7% for 2026E, and 27.3% for 2027E [6]. - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to turn positive by 2025E, with figures of 55 million yuan, 283 million yuan, and 568 million yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, reflecting growth rates of 416.6% and 100.9% in subsequent years [6][8]. Key Assumptions - The revenue from the Prophet platform and products is expected to grow at rates of 43%, 36%, and 32% from 2025 to 2027, while the application development and other services are projected to decline slightly [9]. - The company has accumulated significant industry know-how through benchmark projects, which supports its standardization strategy [10][44]. Market Position - The company ranks first in the Chinese machine learning platform market share for 2024 and has been a leader for seven consecutive years [25][26]. - The report highlights the company's ability to adapt to the unique characteristics of the Chinese software market, focusing on standardization while addressing customization needs [10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from a standardized product strategy that enhances customer acquisition in the short term and maintains competitive advantages in the long term [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projections of 68.52 billion, 88.19 billion, and 112.26 billion CNY for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 27% respectively [7][8] - The company aims to transition towards standardized products, which is anticipated to improve market penetration and customer retention [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million CNY) for the years 2023A to 2027E is projected as follows: - 2023A: 4,204 - 2024A: 5,261 - 2025E: 6,852 - 2026E: 8,819 - 2027E: 11,226 - The revenue growth rates are expected to be 36.4% in 2023, 25.1% in 2024, 30.2% in 2025, 28.7% in 2026, and 27.3% in 2027 [5][7] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders (in million CNY) is forecasted as follows: - 2023A: -909 - 2024A: -269 - 2025E: 55 - 2026E: 283 - 2027E: 568 - The net profit growth rates are projected to be 416.6% in 2026 and 100.9% in 2027 [5][7] Business Segmentation - The company's business can be divided into two main segments: 1. Prophet Platform and Products (70% of 2024 revenue) 2. Application Development and Other Services (30% of 2024 revenue) [6][22] - The Prophet Platform includes standardized software and hardware products, while Application Development encompasses SHIFT intelligent solutions and AIGS services [6][22] Market Positioning - The company is recognized as a leader in the Chinese machine learning platform market, having maintained the top position for seven consecutive years [20][21] - The company’s strategy focuses on leveraging industry know-how accumulated through benchmark projects to enhance its standardized product offerings [9][38] Growth Catalysts - Key growth drivers include exceeding revenue growth expectations, increased revenue contribution from the Prophet platform, successful expansion into the consumer electronics market, and rising downstream AI demand [10]

2025 年 09 月 05 日 港股通 ROE 持续回暖，关注科技+ 深度价值 ——港股通 2025 年中报分析 相关研究 《重点关注港股大众消费的行业轮 动！——港股行业比较之育儿补贴 政策影响分析》 2025/07/29 《成长扩散——2025 下半年港股 行业比较投资策略》 2025/06/10 《港股盈利企稳，科技、医药量价齐 升——港股通 2024 年年报分析》 2025/05/14 证券分析师 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘雅婧 (8621)23297818× liuyj@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 25H1 港股通收入增速走弱，但港股通（非金融）利润 ...

2025 年 09 月 05 日 金价突破新高：驱动逻辑、资金动 向与后市空间测算 ——全球资产配置方法论黄金框架性报告之五 热点思考：伦敦金现再创新高后，金价后市如何演绎？ 在经历近 4 个月的高位震荡后，近期伦敦金现突破震荡区间上限迅速冲高，2025 年 9 月 3 日 伦敦金现最高点接近 3580 美元/盎司，本轮金价走高的核心逻辑是什么，后续黄金将如何演绎？ （一）交易层面看本轮金价创新高的四大特征 在持续四个月的宽幅震荡降波后，金价在波动率处于阶段性低位的背景下突破。在 2025 年 4 月之后金价开启了长达四个月的宽幅震荡，而波动率持续回落，近期在特朗普动摇美联储独立 性+欧洲财政赤字担忧导致全球央行（主权基金）抛售欧美长期国债并且购买黄金+非农预期利 好美联储降息预期升温的加持下，伴随着波动率大幅上升，金价快速突破区间上限。 本轮金价杠杆资金和实物供需共同定价。在 COMEX 黄金高位震荡中，COMEX 黄金投机净多 头持仓从低位上升，同时代表实物黄金需求的 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓量持续上升，和 2025 年 3 月的金价加速上涨更多由实物资金驱动不同，金价本轮具备杠杆资金和实物资金的共同 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a weakening revenue growth for Hong Kong Stock Connect in H1 2025, with a year-on-year revenue growth rate of 1.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from 2024, while net profit growth is at 4.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from 2024 [8] - Despite the overall decline in revenue growth, there is a marginal improvement in profit growth, ROE, and net profit margin for non-financial sectors, indicating a positive trend in the context of China's economic transformation [8] - The report suggests that the fundamentals of Hong Kong Stock Connect assets are stronger in internet and new consumption sectors, while A-share assets are stronger in technology hardware and military industries [8] Industry and Company Analysis - Key industries showing improvement include computer (equipment and software development), light industry manufacturing, real estate, semiconductors, medical services, and biopharmaceuticals, with revenue and profit growth showing marginal improvements [8] - Conversely, industries such as coal and passenger vehicles are experiencing declines in both revenue and profit growth [8] - The report emphasizes the continued positive outlook for broad growth directions, noting that the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index saw a decline in profit growth in H1 2025, with a notable downward revision in profit forecasts since Q3 [8] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies deep value sectors with low reversal opportunities, particularly in real estate and domestic consumption companies, where some firms have cash holdings exceeding their market value [3][8] - It also points out the potential for recovery in real estate stocks driven by improving revenue and profit growth, as well as the low valuation levels in the sector [3][8] - The report recommends focusing on internet platforms with AI and new consumption characteristics, as well as innovative pharmaceuticals and medical services, which are showing continuous improvement in fundamentals [3][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7][17] Core Insights - The company's mid-year report for 2025 shows revenue of 19.652 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.646 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 52.6% [7] - The optimization of product structure has led to a gross margin of 19.8%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, with gross profit of approximately 3.894 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20% [7] - The high-end transformation of the mobile business is significant, with mobile business revenue of 13.25 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, despite a decline in shipment volumes for mobile lenses and modules [7] - The company has maintained its position as the global leader in automotive lens shipments since 2012, with automotive business revenue of 3.4 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [7] - The company is vertically integrated across the entire supply chain, positioning itself at the core of the XR supply chain, with XR business revenue of 1.2 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.1% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 31.681 billion RMB - 2024: 38.294 billion RMB - 2025E: 41.601 billion RMB - 2026E: 43.705 billion RMB - 2027E: 45.916 billion RMB - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2023: 1.099 billion RMB - 2024: 2.699 billion RMB - 2025E: 3.498 billion RMB - 2026E: 3.982 billion RMB - 2027E: 4.439 billion RMB [6][8]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent short-term adjustment in the A-share market is due to a combination of factors, including a rapid rise in the market since late June and the need for market expectations to be re-anchored, leading to a potential impulse adjustment [1] - Despite the short-term adjustments, the report maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting that high-growth sectors will continue to increase over time, with significant improvements expected in the midstream manufacturing sector around mid-2026 [1] - The report anticipates that 2026 may witness the first effective rebound in profitability and double-digit growth in net profit for the past five years across the A-share market, driven by structural improvements in fundamentals [1] Market Trends - The report highlights that the channel for residents to increase equity allocation will become smoother over time, with public funds issued in 2020-21 nearing their net asset value [1] - Although the broad market indices are currently adjusting, nearly half of the stocks are still rising, indicating a maintained profit-making effect, which is beneficial for institutional net value returns [1] - The report suggests that the market's slowdown could lead to increased clues about economic recovery and enhanced market elasticity, forming a solid foundation for sustained market growth [1] Structural Selection - The report emphasizes that the potential mainline structures for future investments are domestic technological advancements and advanced manufacturing, which are expected to yield high returns, although key catalysts are still awaited [1] - Key economic indicators to watch in September and October include the ongoing demand for computing power and the progress of Tesla's Optimus product, as well as potential demand highlights in certain cyclical products [1] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market currently offers better value than the A-share market, reflecting a more optimistic economic trend with fewer bullish expectations [1]

Overall Performance - In Q2 2025, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones reported TTM revenue growth of 5.18%, 9.80%, and 7.49% respectively, with Nasdaq showing the highest growth[3] - The proportion of companies exceeding revenue expectations was 91.1% for Nasdaq and 80.5% for S&P 500, significantly above historical averages[24] - EPS growth for S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones was 7.25%, 16.28%, and 0.48% respectively, indicating a slowdown in growth for S&P 500 and Nasdaq[3] Industry Insights - The top three sectors for revenue growth were light industry manufacturing (29.0%), electronics (20.7%), and non-ferrous metals (16.9%) in Q2 2025[16] - Profit growth leaders included media (115.8%), non-ferrous metals (84.1%), and pharmaceutical biology (33.3%) in Q2 2025[16] - Technology sector outperformed others, with high revenue and profit exceeding expectations, particularly in electronics and media[25][26] Economic Indicators - Consumer spending showed signs of slowing, with commercial and residential delinquency rates rising to 0.47% and 1.38% respectively in Q2 2025[3] - Manufacturing investment showed marginal improvement, with energy and industrial revenue growth at 0.2% and 3.2% respectively[3] - The overall gross margin for S&P 500 remained stable at 34.4%, with some sectors like utilities and real estate showing significant improvements[3] AI Impact - AI's influence on revenue growth was mixed, with hardware sectors lagging while software sectors, particularly AI solutions, saw significant growth[3] - Employment data indicated a decline in white-collar job growth in sectors like IT and finance post-AI adoption, while productivity in non-financial sectors improved[3] Risks - Short-term asset price volatility may not reflect long-term trends, and potential economic downturns could exceed expectations[3]