Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for J&T Express [2][6] Core Insights - J&T Express continues to experience high growth in Southeast Asia, with a significant increase in package volume driven by e-commerce penetration and company competitiveness [6][7] - The company has expanded its new market operations, achieving a 47.9% year-on-year growth in package volume for Q3 2025, supported by investments and partnerships with e-commerce platforms [6][7] - The report anticipates a recovery in profit margins due to rising delivery prices in the express delivery industry, following a trend of price increases since August [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for J&T Express are as follows: - 2023: $8,849 million - 2024: $10,259 million - 2025E: $12,719 million - 2026E: $16,015 million - 2027E: $20,449 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 21.77% for 2023, 15.93% for 2024, and 23.97% for 2025E [3][7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: $368 million - 2026E: $592 million - 2027E: $853 million - Corresponding year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are 83.91% for 2025E, 60.77% for 2026E, and 43.94% for 2027E [3][7] Market Performance - As of October 14, 2025, J&T Express's closing price is HKD 9.61, with a market capitalization of HKD 862.75 billion [4][6] - The company has a market share of 32.8% in Southeast Asia, reflecting a 5.4 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the oil and petrochemical industry [3][6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, crude oil prices increased slightly on a quarter-over-quarter basis, while downstream sectors are still awaiting recovery [6]. - The average Brent crude oil price for July, August, and September 2025 was $69.6, $67.3, and $67.6 per barrel, respectively, with a Q3 average of $68.2 per barrel, reflecting a 2.1% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 13.4% decrease year-over-year [6][7]. - The report forecasts performance for key industry companies, indicating stable growth in upstream oil and gas exploration and development, with slight recovery in midstream refining profits [6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Q3 2025 saw a cumulative adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices, with a total decrease of 75 yuan per ton for both [6]. - The price differences for various petrochemical products showed mixed trends, with some margins expanding while others contracted [6][8]. Company Performance Forecasts - Key company forecasts for Q3 2025 include: - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC): Expected net profit of 38 billion yuan (YoY -13%, QoQ +2%) [6]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): Expected net profit of 34 billion yuan (YoY -8%, QoQ +3%) [6]. - Sinopec: Expected net profit of 8.5 billion yuan (YoY -1%, QoQ +3%) [6]. - CNOOC Services: Expected net profit of 1.2 billion yuan (YoY +41%, QoQ +11%) [6]. - Offshore Oil Engineering: Expected net profit of 600 million yuan (YoY +9%, QoQ +8%) [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for polyester companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials due to expected recovery in polyester market conditions [6]. - It recommends focusing on quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, given the favorable competitive landscape [6]. - The report also highlights the resilience of upstream exploration and development, recommending offshore service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering for potential performance improvement [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests increasing attention to the military industry, focusing on flexible and thematic varieties [4]. Core Viewpoints - The military industry is entering a new upward cycle due to significant changes in the Middle East arms trade market, an expansion of domestic demand, and the expected implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the BEST project entering a new phase of main engine assembly, with large orders for controllable nuclear fusion expected to be tendered in Q4 2025, indicating a period of intensive catalysts for the industry [6][66]. - Key areas of focus include next-generation equipment, rapid realization of unmanned and counter-unmanned weapons starting in 2025, and the rapid expansion of information and intelligence capabilities with the introduction of new equipment [6]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan" Completion and "15th Five-Year Plan" Expectations - The completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to boost performance, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to continue to develop [28]. - The military cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia is expected to deepen, with significant military demands arising from geopolitical tensions [29][34]. 2. Military Trade Demand and Market Trends - The demand for military trade is rapidly expanding, particularly in the Middle East, where ongoing conflicts are likely to increase military spending and weapon imports [35][38]. - The global military trade market is on an upward trend, with the U.S. being the largest exporter, accounting for approximately 47% of the global military trade market in 2024 [41]. 3. Financial Performance and Revenue Trends - The report highlights the revenue growth trends across various military equipment sectors, with significant fluctuations observed in recent quarters due to order delays and stricter acceptance criteria [22][23]. - The military trade business is expected to significantly enhance the revenue and profitability of listed companies, as military trade products typically have higher profit margins compared to domestic sales [49][56]. 4. Technological Advancements and Future Outlook - The report discusses advancements in military technology, including the development of new aircraft, missiles, and drones, positioning China as a core exporter in these areas [42][45]. - The transition from single product sales to integrated equipment systems is anticipated to enhance competitiveness and expand market share in military trade [46].

Group 1: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market has shifted from pessimistic liquidity expectations to improved economic outlooks, influenced by tariff impacts and risk preference changes [3][11] - The strategy for Q4 2025 focuses on short-term certainty while continuing to control duration, with expectations for 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.75% and 1.90% [11] - The market is facing challenges from mid-term logic shifts and potential changes in risk preferences, suggesting a cautious approach to long-term bonds [11] Group 2: TOP TOY and the Trend of the Toy Industry - TOP TOY, a brand under Miniso, has shown strong growth since its establishment in 2020, with a complete ecosystem from IP incubation to multi-channel sales [4][12] - The Chinese toy industry is experiencing rapid growth, with retail sales expected to rise from 207 billion yuan in 2019 to 587 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23.2% [12][4] - The company has a diverse IP matrix, with 17 self-owned IPs and over 600 licensed IPs, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [12][13] Group 3: Coal Industry Performance - Domestic coal production increased by 2.8% year-on-year, while coal imports decreased by 11.1%, indicating a tightening supply [14][15] - The average price of thermal coal in Q3 2025 showed a recovery, with expectations for further performance improvement in Q4 [15][14] - Key companies in the coal sector are projected to report varying earnings, with some exceeding expectations due to stable pricing and production increases [15][14] Group 4: Public Utilities Sector - The hydropower sector is expected to recover due to improved rainfall conditions, while thermal power profitability is anticipated to remain strong despite fluctuating coal prices [25][24] - Nuclear power generation is on the rise, with new units expected to contribute significantly to output growth [25][24] - The gas sector is witnessing a gradual recovery in consumption, supported by lower costs and improved pricing strategies [25][24]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3865 | -0.62 | -0.14 | -0.45 | | 深证综指 | 2440 | -1.91 | -0.92 | -3.16 | 2025 年 10 月 15 日 煎熬已过，余波未平——2025 年四季度债券市场展望 ⚫ 2025 年 1 月至今债券市场行情的运行逻辑：从流动性悲观预期到经济改善 预期->"对等关税"冲击下的风险偏好切换->反内卷预期下的股债跷跷板 效应及资金分流->债基赎回压力。 ⚫ 4 季度债市策略：把握短端确定性，继续控久期 风险提示：宏观调控力度超预期、金融监管超预期、市场风险偏好超预 期、海外环境变化超预期。（详见正文） | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -1.18 | -0.22 | 20.87 | | 中盘指数 | -2.62 | 1.62 | 29.44 | | 小盘指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [14]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector will see significant earnings growth in Q3 2025, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth [3][7]. - The performance growth is primarily driven by rising metal prices and increased production and sales volumes [3]. - The report highlights the impact of recent economic events, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and government shutdown, on gold prices, suggesting a long-term upward trend for gold due to low domestic reserves in China [5]. - Industrial metals like copper are expected to see price increases due to supply constraints from incidents like the mudslide at Freeport's Grasberg mine [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side adjustments and export demand in the steel sector, recommending stable dividend-paying stocks [5]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast - Companies with over 50% year-on-year growth include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Shandong Gold [3]. - Companies with 20-50% growth include Huayou Cobalt and Baosteel [3]. - Companies with 0-20% growth include Shengda Resources and Western Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are expected to rise due to interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [5]. - Silver is also highlighted as a potential investment due to a favorable gold-silver ratio [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to increase due to supply disruptions, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended [5]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as domestic production capacity becomes constrained [5]. Steel Sector - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and potential for valuation recovery, such as Baosteel and Hesteel [5]. Minor Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Huayou Cobalt recommended [5]. - Lithium supply is currently more relaxed, with attention on changes in Yichun's mica mines [5]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends investing in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry, highlighting companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

官 2025 年 10 月 14 日 有色金属行业 2025 年三季度业绩前瞻 相关研究 证券分析师 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 2025 三季度业绩前瞻: 我们对重点公司 2025 三季度业绩进行预测，2025 年前三季度业绩同比增速在 50%以上的有紫金 O 矿业、洛阳铝业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金、山金国际、株冶集团、湖南黄金、金诚信、 金力永磁，同比增速在 20-50%区间的有华友钻业、宝钢股份、南钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立特材, 同比增速在 0-20%区间的有盛达资源、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天山铝业、中信特钢, 业绩增长主要受益于相关金属价格同比上涨、产销量同比增长；2025Q3 业绩环比增速在 50%以 上的有盛达资源、铜陵有色、金力永磁，在 20-50%区间的有山东黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金，在 0-20%区间的有紫金矿业、山金国际、株冶集团、金诚信、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天 山铝业、新疆众和、华友钻业、 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the investment outlook for the toy industry as positive, highlighting the growth potential of TOP TOY as a leading player in the market [3]. Core Insights - TOP TOY, a brand under Miniso, has established a comprehensive integrated platform for the toy industry, achieving significant growth since its inception in 2020. The company has expanded its store count to 293 and increased its self-developed product ratio to 47.2%, resulting in substantial revenue and profit growth [3][4]. - The Chinese toy industry is experiencing rapid growth, with retail sales projected to rise from 207 billion yuan in 2019 to 587 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2%. This growth is driven by consumer demand for identity recognition and emotional resonance through products [3][4]. - TOP TOY has built a diverse IP matrix and a robust multi-channel sales strategy, enhancing its competitive advantage. The company has developed 17 proprietary IPs and collaborates with 43 licensed IPs, alongside over 600 external IPs, to strengthen its market presence [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - TOP TOY has demonstrated strong performance, with revenue increasing from 6.79 billion yuan in 2022 to 19.09 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a record growth rate of 115.3% in 2023. The company turned a profit in 2023 with a net profit of 2.12 billion yuan, and further growth is expected in 2024 [18][21]. - The company's gross margin improved significantly, reaching 32.4% in the first half of 2025, driven by an increase in self-developed products [21][24]. Industry Growth - The global entertainment merchandise industry is expanding, with the market size projected to grow from $44.8 billion in 2019 to $82.2 billion in 2024, and further to $194.8 billion by 2030, indicating a CAGR of 12.9% [35][36]. - The Chinese toy industry is expected to grow rapidly, with retail sales projected to reach 2.133 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by emotional connections and social interactions among consumers [35][36]. IP and Product Strategy - TOP TOY has developed a comprehensive IP matrix, including proprietary, licensed, and external IPs, enhancing its product offerings and market reach. The company has successfully launched popular self-developed IPs, contributing significantly to its revenue [53][57]. - The product matrix includes diverse categories such as figurines, 3D models, and plush toys, with figurines expected to dominate the market share, projected to reach 51.2% by 2030 [43][60]. Sales Channels and Marketing - The company has established a mature multi-channel sales network, with significant contributions from offline distributors and franchisees. Online sales are also growing rapidly, with a notable increase in revenue from e-commerce platforms [66][70]. - TOP TOY employs a comprehensive marketing strategy that includes immersive in-store experiences and online engagement through social media and e-commerce, enhancing customer interaction and brand loyalty [84][90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.86 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 333 million yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year [7]. - The company's proprietary brand revenue is accelerating, with online GMV for its brands increasing by 24% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025. The "Wang Pi" brand showed significant growth, with a 30% increase in Q3 [7]. - The overseas business is steadily growing, with the company expanding its global supply chain, including new factories in Mexico and improvements in existing facilities in the U.S. and Canada [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 5.44 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 451 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.5% [6][9]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 30.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 15.8% [6][9]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth of 22% in 2026 and 23% in 2027, with net profits expected to grow by 26% and 28% respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the food and beverage sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][14]. Core Insights - The report predicts that among the 38 tracked A-share listed food and beverage companies, only 2 are expected to achieve a net profit growth exceeding 20%: Dongpeng Beverage (35%) and Kuaijishan (28%). A total of 14 companies are projected to have growth between 0% and 20%, while 19 companies are expected to see a decline in performance [4][6]. - The report emphasizes that the industry is still in a phase of bottoming out, particularly in the liquor segment, which requires patience. It suggests that food companies should seek structural opportunities from the bottom up [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Forecast for Food and Beverage Companies - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, highlighting expected revenue and profit changes for Q3 2025. For instance, Kweichow Moutai is projected to have a revenue of 41.65 billion with a 5% year-on-year increase, while Wuliangye is expected to see a revenue drop of 15% [6][7]. 2. Key Company Profitability Predictions - The report includes a profitability prediction table for major companies, indicating that Kweichow Moutai is rated as "Buy" with a projected net profit of 93.96 billion for 2025, while Wuliangye is also rated "Buy" with a forecast of 31.90 billion [8][9]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend stocks and companies with long-term competitive advantages. Key recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor segment, and Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Dongpeng Beverage in the consumer goods segment [4][5][8].