行业报告 | 行业研究周报 通信 证券研究报告 英伟达一季报超预期，AI 产业持续向好 本周行业动态： DeepSeek 宣布 R1 小版本试升级：实测编程能力已达到国际一线水平 近日，DeepSeek 在官方交流群中发布通知：DeepSeek R1 模型已完成小版本试升 级，欢迎前往官方网页、App、小程序测试，API 接口和使用方式保持不变。有人 实测了开源 R1 最新 0528 版本，其编程能力已达到国际一线水平。此外，无论是 网页生成、小游戏制作，还是复杂的绘图板 Bug 修复、图片画廊灯箱效果，R1 新 版都展现了极强的代码生成、理解和修正能力，部分任务表现优于 Claude 4。 NVIDIA 发布 2026 财年第一季度财务报告 NVIDIA 发布一季报，第一季度收入为 441 亿美元，较上一季度增长 12%，较去年 同期增长 69%。NVIDIA 对 2026 财年第二季度的展望：收入预计将达 450 亿美元， 上下浮动 2%。GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率预计分别为 71.8%和 72.0%，上下浮动 50 个 基准点，公司正持续优化毛利率，力争今年末将毛利率提升至 70%区间中位水平。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement clinker price in the Yangtze River Delta has increased by 30 CNY/ton, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and a proactive approach from companies to stabilize prices and protect profits [3][14] - The overall cement shipment rate in May was 48%, showing a slight decline year-on-year, but the recent price increase is expected to boost market confidence [3][17] - The report highlights that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to high demand and domestic substitution opportunities [19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while the building materials sector rose by 0.59%, with the ceramics sector showing the highest increase of 3.77% [12][17] - Key stocks in the recommended portfolio include Zhongcai Technology (+5.1%), Western Cement (+4.1%), and others [12][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 2.46% year-on-year, but government policies are aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][14] - The report anticipates that cement prices will rise following the clinker price increase, supported by a decrease in coal prices [3][14] Key Sub-Industries Tracking - Cement: The national average price fell by 0.8%, but the Yangtze River Delta has initiated price increases, indicating potential stabilization in the market [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market is under pressure, with prices declining, while float glass prices have also seen a slight decrease [18][19] - Fiberglass: The market for alkali-free yarn continues to decline, with prices dropping by 0.62% week-on-week [19] Long-term Value and Growth Potential - Traditional building material leaders are expected to show significant long-term value, while new energy materials are likely to continue their growth [19] - Recommendations include companies like Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and others that are positioned to benefit from improving infrastructure and real estate demand [19]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 22 周周报：猪价中枢持续回落，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1、生猪板块：猪价中枢持续回落，主动&被动因素加大去化概率，重视生猪板块预期差！1）本周猪价&仔 猪价格偏弱。本周全国生猪均价 14.41 元/kg，环比下跌 0.69%（涌益），周度均价创年内新低，行业自繁自养 盈利约 129 元/头，环比-13 元/头；本周 7kg 仔猪和 50kg 二元母猪价格为 501 元/头和 1628 元/头，环比继 续偏弱。供应端，本周出栏均重为 129.18kg（环比-0.15%），150kg 以上生猪出栏占比为 4.92%（环比-0.06pct）， 小部分区域猪病增加，或加快行业出栏进度；需求端，本周消费端受端午备货支撑，终端消费表现回暖，带 动屠企宰杀意愿增强，本周日度屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比+1.99%。端午备货过后，消费或有降级，叠加气温 升高，猪肉进入年内季节性消费疲软期，且近期肥标价差倒挂加速前期大猪出栏，猪价或呈季节性走弱趋势， 行业或再度进入亏损状态。且南方雨季或带动猪病有所反复（历年 6-7 月份 90 kg 以下生猪出栏占比提升）， 或加 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant breakthroughs in China's controllable nuclear fusion technology, with the "Chinese Circulation No. 3" achieving a plasma current of one million amperes and ion temperature reaching 100 million degrees, marking a new high in fusion parameters [3][6] - The advancements in nuclear fusion technology position China as a leader in the field, paving the way for future commercialization and potential growth opportunities for related upstream and downstream enterprises [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the continuous progress in controllable nuclear fusion technology in China, with key projects like the "Xuanlong-50U" achieving critical engineering breakthroughs [3][4] - The comprehensive parameters of fusion triple product have reached the order of 10^20, indicating significant advancements in the field [3] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include: - Lianchuang Optoelectronics, a leading supplier of high-temperature superconducting magnets, which are crucial for compact tokamak devices [4] - Yongding Co., a major supplier of high-temperature superconducting strips [4] - Guoguang Electric, which provides various components for controllable nuclear fusion devices [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [10] Core Viewpoints - The pig price center continues to decline, with both active and passive factors increasing the probability of destocking, highlighting the expected difference in the pig sector [2][14] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising, indicating strong growth resilience in pet consumption [3][16] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white chickens and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens [4][18] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average national pig price is 14.41 yuan/kg, down 0.69% week-on-week, marking a new low for the year, with self-breeding profits around 129 yuan/head, down 13 yuan/head [2][14] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in average weight for slaughtered pigs, while demand is supported by pre-festival stocking, but may decline post-festival due to seasonal consumption fatigue [2][14] - The sector is characterized by low valuations and expected differences, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs being highlighted for their profitability [2][15] Pet Sector - The 618 pre-sale event on Taobao showed strong sales for domestic brands, with significant growth in live-streaming channels [3][16] - Pet food exports have seen continuous growth, with 11.02 million tons exported in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.17% [3][16] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., with a focus on companies with high domestic income growth [3][17] Poultry Sector - The uncertainty in breeding imports for white chickens remains, with a significant decline in breeding stock updates [4][18] - The yellow chicken supply is confirmed to be shrinking, with prices sensitive to demand changes, suggesting potential benefits from a recovery in consumption [5][21] - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices due to restricted imports, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Xiaoming Co. due to their market share advantages [6][22] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving high yields through the integration of good land, good seeds, good machinery, and good practices, contributing significantly to national food security [7][23] - The emphasis on biotechnology and precision breeding is expected to enhance agricultural competitiveness, with leading seed companies recommended [7][23] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended for its market share increase and consistent performance in the feed sector [8][25] - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands and competition, with a focus on innovative products and potential growth in pet health products [8][26]

据 Wind，0524-0531 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 216.79 万平 米，同比-2.46%。2025 年《政府工作报告》中指出要"持续用力推动房地 产市场止跌回稳"，在政策导向上给予房地产业发展支持。据住房城乡建设 部、财政部、中国人民银行印发的《全国住房公积金 2024 年年度报告》 显示，2024 年，我国住房公积金制度惠及面不断扩大，全国共发放住房公 积金贷款超 1.3 万亿元，政策支持力度不断加大，打好政策组合拳，推动 建设安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的"好房子"。 上周长三角地区水泥熟料价格公布上涨 30 元/吨，同时企业计划在 6-8 月 份执行错峰生产，其中 6 月份错峰 12 天，若落实情况好，则 7-8 月继续 执行每月 12-15 天。5 月份水泥整体出货率达 48%，环比基本持平，同比- 6pct，同比降幅较 4 月份有所扩大，当前需求端持续偏弱，二季度以来水 泥价格呈现持续下滑趋势，一方面因为需求表现低于预期，另一方面系前 期盈利有所好转后，市场抢量情况有所加剧，当前时点价已基本跌回涨前 水平，而此次长三角熟料涨价彰显出企业重新调整预期，稳价格、保利润 的积极心态。Q2 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 周新宇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524070007 zhouxinyu@tfzq.com 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 吴立 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517010002 wuli1@tfzq.com 中国可控核聚变技术持续取得重大突破，重点关注核聚变产业链！ 我国可控核聚变装置取得重大突破，综合参数聚变三乘积达到 10 的 20 次方量级。近日，中核 集团核工业西南物理研究院宣布，新一代人造太阳"中国环流三号"实现了百万安培亿度高约 束模式（H 模）运行，等离子体电流达到一百万安培，离子温度达到 1 亿度，综合参数聚变三 乘积再创新高，达到 10 的 20 次方量级。 自 2020 年 12 月建成并实现首次等离子体放电以来，"中国环流三号"已多次刷新我国可控核 聚变装置运行纪录： 行业走势图 -12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 中小市值 沪深300 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Fund Position Estimation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to estimate the complete stock holdings of public funds based on disclosed top 10 heavy holdings and industry allocation information, addressing the time lag in fund reports[2][8][9] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use quarterly fund reports to obtain the top 10 heavy holdings and industry allocation data[9] 2. Combine this with the top 10 shareholders' information from listed companies[8] 3. Assume that non-heavy holdings remain unchanged in terms of stock types across two periods, with only proportional weight adjustments[10] 4. Scale the weights of non-heavy holdings from the previous period (T-1) to simulate the current period (T) non-heavy holdings[10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a practical approach to estimate fund positions with limited disclosed data, though it relies on assumptions about non-heavy holdings' stability[8][10] - **Model Name**: Fund Style Monitoring Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model monitors the daily style exposure of public funds by decomposing their stock holdings into large-cap and small-cap components[3][11] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use simulated fund holdings to estimate stock positions[11] 2. Decompose stock holdings into large-cap and small-cap components[3] 3. Apply weighted least squares regression using fund daily returns and large-cap/small-cap index daily returns to estimate fund allocations to large-cap and small-cap portfolios[11] 4. Monitor fund positions daily and analyze style changes across dimensions such as size exposure and industry allocation[3][11] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures dynamic changes in fund styles, providing insights into size and industry exposures[3][11] Model Backtesting Results - **Fund Position Estimation Model**: - Median stock position for equity funds: 87.39% as of 2025-05-30, up 0.10% from two weeks prior[4][16] - Median stock position for hybrid funds: 83.76% as of 2025-05-30, down 0.18% from two weeks prior[4][16] - Large-cap allocation changes: +2.48% for equity funds, +1.34% for hybrid funds[4][16] - Small-cap allocation changes: -2.37% for equity funds, -1.52% for hybrid funds[4][16] - **Fund Style Monitoring Model**: - Equity funds' large-cap allocation: 44.2%, small-cap allocation: 43.2% as of 2025-05-30[15] - Hybrid funds' large-cap allocation: 36.8%, small-cap allocation: 47.0% as of 2025-05-30[15] - Current position percentiles (2016 onwards): 34.43% for equity funds, 35.04% for hybrid funds[16] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Size Allocation Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor quantifies the allocation of fund holdings to large-cap and small-cap stocks[3][11] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Decompose fund holdings into large-cap and small-cap components based on simulated positions[11] 2. Use weighted least squares regression to estimate allocation weights for large-cap and small-cap portfolios[11] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a clear measure of size exposure, aiding in understanding fund style dynamics[3][11] - **Factor Name**: Industry Allocation Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weight of fund holdings in different industries based on simulated positions[3][24] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Classify stocks into industries using the CITIC Level-1 industry classification[24] 2. Calculate the weight of each industry in the fund's simulated holdings[24] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures industry preferences and shifts in fund allocations[24] Factor Backtesting Results - **Size Allocation Factor**: - Equity funds: Large-cap 44.2%, Small-cap 43.2% as of 2025-05-30[15] - Hybrid funds: Large-cap 36.8%, Small-cap 47.0% as of 2025-05-30[15] - **Industry Allocation Factor**: - Top industries for equity funds: Electronics (14.32%), Medicine (10.99%), Electrical Equipment (9.29%), Machinery (6.51%), Food & Beverage (8.46%)[20] - Top industries for hybrid funds: Electronics (16.46%), Medicine (9.29%), Electrical Equipment (8.36%), Machinery (8.00%), Food & Beverage (6.10%)[20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter an accelerated development phase in 2025, driven by rapid store expansion, the acquisition of Qinglu, and the growth of the group meal business [3][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.45%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 37 million yuan, a decrease of 6.13% [1][2]. Revenue Summary - The company plans to add 1,000 new stores by 2025, reaching a total of 6,000 stores, with a narrowing gap in single-store performance expected to be more evident in Q2 and Q3 [2][3]. - The group meal business is actively collaborating with major clients like Yonghui, which is expected to gradually increase volume [2][3]. Profit Summary - The gross profit margin stabilized, while the expense ratio decreased, with interest income impacting the non-recurring profit [2]. - The non-recurring net profit margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 10.5%, and the net profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points [2]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 10% for 2025, 9% for 2026, and 8% for 2027, with total revenues expected to be 1.85 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 270 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of -3.9%, +10.3%, and +11.3% for the following years [3][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1,846.34 million yuan, with a growth rate of 10.46% [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 18X for 2025, 16X for 2026, and 14X for 2027 [3][5].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent surge in AI glasses releases, indicating a growing market for AI glasses as a new frontier for large models [9] - The performance of major overseas tech companies, such as Nvidia and Microsoft, has been strong, with significant revenue growth driven by AI contributions [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of Micro OLED technology and its expanding applications in various sectors, including AR glasses [9] Summary by Sections AI Glasses Market - Multiple domestic AI glasses have been launched recently, with notable products from companies like Raybird and Rokid, indicating a trend towards integrating AI capabilities into consumer electronics [4][12] - Raybird's new flagship AR glasses, RayNeo X3 Pro, feature advanced technology such as Micro-LED displays and a Snapdragon AR1 platform, enhancing user experience and energy efficiency [12][14] - Rokid has partnered with Gaode Map to introduce a smart navigation application for its AR glasses, aiming to improve user interaction through voice and visual cues [18][19] - The market for AR glasses is heating up, leading to increased investment in upstream near-eye display projects, with several domestic companies expanding their Micro OLED production capacity [22][23] Overseas Tech Performance - Nvidia reported Q1 2026 revenue of $44.062 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, with significant growth in data center and gaming sectors [34] - Microsoft's Q3 2025 revenue reached $70.1 billion, a 13% increase, driven by strong performance in its cloud services, particularly Azure [38][41] - Meta's Q1 2025 revenue was $42.314 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth, with substantial investments planned for AI infrastructure [34] Micro OLED Technology - The report notes that Micro OLED technology is expected to see further development in 2025, with increased investment in related projects to meet rising demand [23] - Companies like Yisui Technology are investing heavily in Micro OLED production capabilities, anticipating a growing market for these displays in various applications [25]