Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Fund Position Estimation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to estimate the complete stock holdings of public funds based on disclosed top 10 heavy holdings and industry allocation information, addressing the time lag in fund reports[2][8][9] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use quarterly fund reports to obtain the top 10 heavy holdings and industry allocation data[9] 2. Combine this with the top 10 shareholders' information from listed companies[8] 3. Assume that non-heavy holdings remain unchanged in terms of stock types across two periods, with only proportional weight adjustments[10] 4. Scale the weights of non-heavy holdings from the previous period (T-1) to simulate the current period (T) non-heavy holdings[10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a practical approach to estimate fund positions with limited disclosed data, though it relies on assumptions about non-heavy holdings' stability[8][10] - **Model Name**: Fund Style Monitoring Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model monitors the daily style exposure of public funds by decomposing their stock holdings into large-cap and small-cap components[3][11] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use simulated fund holdings to estimate stock positions[11] 2. Decompose stock holdings into large-cap and small-cap components[3] 3. Apply weighted least squares regression using fund daily returns and large-cap/small-cap index daily returns to estimate fund allocations to large-cap and small-cap portfolios[11] 4. Monitor fund positions daily and analyze style changes across dimensions such as size exposure and industry allocation[3][11] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures dynamic changes in fund styles, providing insights into size and industry exposures[3][11] Model Backtesting Results - **Fund Position Estimation Model**: - Median stock position for equity funds: 87.39% as of 2025-05-30, up 0.10% from two weeks prior[4][16] - Median stock position for hybrid funds: 83.76% as of 2025-05-30, down 0.18% from two weeks prior[4][16] - Large-cap allocation changes: +2.48% for equity funds, +1.34% for hybrid funds[4][16] - Small-cap allocation changes: -2.37% for equity funds, -1.52% for hybrid funds[4][16] - **Fund Style Monitoring Model**: - Equity funds' large-cap allocation: 44.2%, small-cap allocation: 43.2% as of 2025-05-30[15] - Hybrid funds' large-cap allocation: 36.8%, small-cap allocation: 47.0% as of 2025-05-30[15] - Current position percentiles (2016 onwards): 34.43% for equity funds, 35.04% for hybrid funds[16] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Size Allocation Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor quantifies the allocation of fund holdings to large-cap and small-cap stocks[3][11] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Decompose fund holdings into large-cap and small-cap components based on simulated positions[11] 2. Use weighted least squares regression to estimate allocation weights for large-cap and small-cap portfolios[11] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a clear measure of size exposure, aiding in understanding fund style dynamics[3][11] - **Factor Name**: Industry Allocation Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weight of fund holdings in different industries based on simulated positions[3][24] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Classify stocks into industries using the CITIC Level-1 industry classification[24] 2. Calculate the weight of each industry in the fund's simulated holdings[24] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures industry preferences and shifts in fund allocations[24] Factor Backtesting Results - **Size Allocation Factor**: - Equity funds: Large-cap 44.2%, Small-cap 43.2% as of 2025-05-30[15] - Hybrid funds: Large-cap 36.8%, Small-cap 47.0% as of 2025-05-30[15] - **Industry Allocation Factor**: - Top industries for equity funds: Electronics (14.32%), Medicine (10.99%), Electrical Equipment (9.29%), Machinery (6.51%), Food & Beverage (8.46%)[20] - Top industries for hybrid funds: Electronics (16.46%), Medicine (9.29%), Electrical Equipment (8.36%), Machinery (8.00%), Food & Beverage (6.10%)[20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter an accelerated development phase in 2025, driven by rapid store expansion, the acquisition of Qinglu, and the growth of the group meal business [3][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.45%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 37 million yuan, a decrease of 6.13% [1][2]. Revenue Summary - The company plans to add 1,000 new stores by 2025, reaching a total of 6,000 stores, with a narrowing gap in single-store performance expected to be more evident in Q2 and Q3 [2][3]. - The group meal business is actively collaborating with major clients like Yonghui, which is expected to gradually increase volume [2][3]. Profit Summary - The gross profit margin stabilized, while the expense ratio decreased, with interest income impacting the non-recurring profit [2]. - The non-recurring net profit margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 10.5%, and the net profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points [2]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 10% for 2025, 9% for 2026, and 8% for 2027, with total revenues expected to be 1.85 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 270 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of -3.9%, +10.3%, and +11.3% for the following years [3][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1,846.34 million yuan, with a growth rate of 10.46% [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 18X for 2025, 16X for 2026, and 14X for 2027 [3][5].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent surge in AI glasses releases, indicating a growing market for AI glasses as a new frontier for large models [9] - The performance of major overseas tech companies, such as Nvidia and Microsoft, has been strong, with significant revenue growth driven by AI contributions [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of Micro OLED technology and its expanding applications in various sectors, including AR glasses [9] Summary by Sections AI Glasses Market - Multiple domestic AI glasses have been launched recently, with notable products from companies like Raybird and Rokid, indicating a trend towards integrating AI capabilities into consumer electronics [4][12] - Raybird's new flagship AR glasses, RayNeo X3 Pro, feature advanced technology such as Micro-LED displays and a Snapdragon AR1 platform, enhancing user experience and energy efficiency [12][14] - Rokid has partnered with Gaode Map to introduce a smart navigation application for its AR glasses, aiming to improve user interaction through voice and visual cues [18][19] - The market for AR glasses is heating up, leading to increased investment in upstream near-eye display projects, with several domestic companies expanding their Micro OLED production capacity [22][23] Overseas Tech Performance - Nvidia reported Q1 2026 revenue of $44.062 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, with significant growth in data center and gaming sectors [34] - Microsoft's Q3 2025 revenue reached $70.1 billion, a 13% increase, driven by strong performance in its cloud services, particularly Azure [38][41] - Meta's Q1 2025 revenue was $42.314 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth, with substantial investments planned for AI infrastructure [34] Micro OLED Technology - The report notes that Micro OLED technology is expected to see further development in 2025, with increased investment in related projects to meet rising demand [23] - Companies like Yisui Technology are investing heavily in Micro OLED production capabilities, anticipating a growing market for these displays in various applications [25]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 潘暕 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517070005 panjian@tfzq.com 许俊峰 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110520110003 xujunfeng@tfzq.com 包恒星 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524100001 baohengxing@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -12% -4% 4% 12% 20% 28% 36% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 消费电子 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《消费电子-行业研究周报:小米玄戒 O1 发布，赋能"人车家"AI 生态进阶》 2025-05-25 3 《消费电子-行业专题研究:英伟达虚 拟仿真技术主导，驱动人形机器人行 业》 2025-05-20 消费电子 证券研究报告 AI 眼镜密集发布，看好软硬件方案成熟带动渗透率提升 AI 眼镜：雷鸟、Rokid、李未可等 AI眼镜发布，看好 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 105.7 CNY, based on a 35X PE for 2025 [5][48]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the precision stamping special steel materials sector for twenty years and is now venturing into the humanoid robot field, applying its materials innovatively in harmonic and planetary gear reducers [1][12]. - The domestic automotive market shows strong demand for precision stamping materials, with opportunities for domestic substitution as the country still relies on imports for high-end materials [2][28]. - The company has developed significant core technologies in precision cold rolling and heat treatment, allowing it to compete effectively with international giants like Wills, offering products at 30%-50% lower prices than foreign competitors [2][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in customized precision stamping special steel materials, primarily used in various automotive components, and plans to expand into the robot sector by 2024 [1][12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the chairman holding 30.16% of the shares, which is favorable for long-term development [14]. Main Business - The demand for precision stamping materials in the automotive sector is robust, with a current market demand of approximately 1 million tons per year in China [2][28]. - The company has maintained a strong focus on independent research and development, achieving performance levels close to international competitors [2][32]. - The new plant in Anhui is expected to add 150,000 tons of capacity, expanding the company's total capacity to 300,000 tons [2][34]. Robotics Sector - The company is innovatively applying precision stamping technology to the harmonic reducer flexible wheel material, which is crucial for reducing costs and improving efficiency in humanoid robot production [3][38]. - The flexible wheel's quality is critical for the fatigue life of harmonic reducers, which are essential components in humanoid robots [38]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 1.78 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 20%, and net profit is expected to be 245 million CNY, growing by 18.45% [4][45]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins as it expands into high-end markets [4][45]. Valuation - The report compares the company with peers like Siling Co., Longsheng Technology, and Keda Li, with an average valuation of 41X for 2025, leading to a target PE of 35X for the company [48][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter an accelerated development phase in 2025, driven by internal expansion, the acquisition of Qinglu, and the growth of the group meal business [3][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.45%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 37 million yuan, a decrease of 6.13% [1][2]. Revenue Summary - The company plans to add 1,000 new stores by 2025, reaching a total of 6,000 stores, with a narrowing gap in single-store performance expected to be more evident in Q2 and Q3 [2][3]. - The group meal business is actively collaborating with clients like Yonghui, which is expected to gradually increase volume [2][3]. Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin stabilized, while the expense ratio decreased, with interest income impacting the non-recurring profit [2]. - The non-recurring net profit margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 10.5%, and the net profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points [2]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 10% for 2025, 9% for 2026, and 8% for 2027, with total revenues expected to be 1.85 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 270 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of -3.9%, +10.3%, and +11.3% for the following years [3][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.89% [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to be 18X for 2025, 16X for 2026, and 14X for 2027 [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 105.7 CNY, based on a 35X PE for 2025 [5][48]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the precision stamping special steel materials sector for twenty years and is now venturing into the humanoid robot field, applying its materials innovatively in harmonic and planetary gear reducers [1][12]. - The domestic automotive market shows strong demand for precision stamping materials, with a significant opportunity for domestic substitution as the country still relies on imports for high-end materials [2][28]. - The company has developed core technologies in precision cold rolling and heat treatment, allowing it to produce materials that are competitive with international giants while offering lower prices [2][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in customized precision stamping special steel materials, primarily used in various automotive components, and plans to expand into the robotics sector in 2024 [1][12]. - The ownership structure is stable, with the chairman holding 30.16% of the shares, which is favorable for long-term development [14]. Main Business - The company is a leader in the domestic precision stamping materials market, with a focus on high-end product substitution [2][28]. - The automotive sector accounts for over 75% of the demand for precision stamping materials, with a current market demand of approximately 1 million tons per year [28][29]. - The company has a production capacity of 180,000 tons, with plans to expand by an additional 150,000 tons through a new plant in Anhui [2][34]. Robotics Sector - The company is innovatively applying precision stamping technology to the production of harmonic reducer flexible wheels, which are critical components in humanoid robots [3][38]. - This new application is expected to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs, opening a second growth curve for the company [3][44]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 1.78 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 20%, and net profit is expected to be 245 million CNY, growing by 18.45% [4][45]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 309.24 million CNY in 2025, with a steady increase in profit margins as it moves into higher-end markets [4][46]. Valuation - The report compares the company with peers and sets a target valuation based on a 35X PE for 2025, reflecting a favorable market position and growth potential [48][49].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 06 月 01 日 -15% -7% 1% 9% 17% 25% 33% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 金属与材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:黄金重 回 升 势 ，关 注权 益 板块 配 置机 会 》 2025-05-24 2 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观情 绪 回 暖 ，看 好基 本 金属 向 上修 复 》 2025-05-18 3 《 金 属 与 材 料 - 行 业 深 度 研 究:24&2 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The basic metals sector is experiencing a continued destocking support, with copper and aluminum prices fluctuating at high levels. Copper prices are expected to remain stable with slight fluctuations, while aluminum prices have shown a slight increase due to low social inventory and positive economic data [4][12][16] - Precious metals are supported by strong safe-haven buying, with gold and silver prices showing upward trends. The market is reacting to reduced trade uncertainties, although concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices [5][24] - The small metals sector is witnessing price increases for tungsten products, driven by tight resources and market dynamics. However, demand from downstream sectors remains cautious, affecting overall market activity [6][55] Summary by Sections 1. Basic and Precious Metals - Copper: Prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with social inventory decreasing. The market is seeing a slight recovery in demand as prices adjust [12][13] - Aluminum: External and domestic aluminum prices have decreased, but spot prices have slightly increased due to low inventory levels and positive consumer data [16][20] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have increased, supported by safe-haven demand amid trade uncertainties and economic concerns [24][25] 2. Small Metals - Tungsten: Prices for tungsten products are rising, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 169,500 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate reaching 248,000 CNY/ton [6][55] - Lithium: The lithium market remains weak, with prices stable but demand sluggish [36][37] - Cobalt: Cobalt prices are stable, but market activity is low due to weak demand and high prices [39][40] - Tin: Tin prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply from resumed mining operations [48][49] - Molybdenum: The molybdenum market is strong, with prices increasing due to tight supply and active demand [60][61]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies showed a month-on-month increase, but the year-on-year decline expanded. The sales amount reached 294.58 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, with the decline widening by 2.7 percentage points compared to April [11][12] - The new housing market continues to face pressure with fluctuating growth rates, despite a month-on-month recovery in sales. The recent interest rate cuts may take time to show their effects, and there is a possibility of continued weakness in year-on-year growth [11][12] - The report highlights the resilience of state-owned enterprises in sales performance, with significant differences observed among different types of companies. Central enterprises showed a decline of 7.0%, while private enterprises faced a much larger decline of 29.5% [12][13] Summary by Sections Sales Performance Overview - In May 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 294.58 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%. Cumulative sales from January to May reached 1,312.75 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [11] - The sales performance varied significantly among different tiers of companies, with the top 10 companies experiencing a year-on-year change of -11.1%, while those ranked 11-30 saw a 12.3% increase [12] Market Dynamics - The new housing market recorded a transaction area of 2.99 million square meters in the last week of May, with a year-on-year decline of 15.96%. However, there was a slight improvement compared to the previous month [20] - The second-hand housing market also faced challenges, with a transaction area of 1.91 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.89% [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises that may benefit from debt restructuring and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages. It also highlights the potential of regional companies and second-hand intermediaries benefiting from improved transaction conditions [15][16]