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信用周报20250824:本轮信用债调整还会持续吗?-20250825
Western Securities· 2025-08-25 07:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The current adjustment of credit bonds is mainly due to the hot equity market and the decline in the profit - making effect of pure bonds, which leads to the diversion of funds from the bond market. Risk preference may be the main driving factor for the recent trend of credit bonds, and the stock - watching and bond - trading pattern may continue in the short term. If the scale of fixed - income + wealth management continues to grow, it may support the demand for medium - to - high - grade, medium - and short - duration non - financial credit bonds, but it may be difficult to reverse the overall trend of credit bonds. It is recommended to shorten the duration, moderately sink the medium - and short - duration of urban investment bonds, mainly allocate medium - to - high - grade industrial bonds, and institutions with strong trading ability for bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds can trade quickly in and out [2][11][17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1本轮信用债调整或仍将持续? - **1.1本轮信用债调整原因探析** - There is an obvious calendar effect. Around August, credit bonds are relatively weak. This is because around August, there are intensive policies for stable growth such as wide - fiscal and stable - real - estate. The concentrated issuance of government bonds disturbs the capital market, and the wide - credit guides the expectation to turn, which cools the bond market sentiment. Since July 2025, the hot equity market and the decline in the profit - making effect of pure bonds have led to the diversion of funds from the bond market, and credit bond yields have fluctuated upward [10][11] - **1.2每轮调整阶段信用债特征** - In the comparable historical adjustment stages from 2023 - 2025, in terms of the maximum callback amplitude, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds generally have a larger callback amplitude than other credit bonds, and medium - and short - duration bonds have a relatively large callback amplitude; in terms of the callback start time, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, medium - and short - duration bonds, and high - grade bonds tend to start the callback first; in terms of the callback end time, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds end the callback first, and 7 - 10 - year bonds end the callback later [12][14] - **1.3信用债后续走势判断** - Risk preference may be the main driving factor for the recent trend of credit bonds. The dovish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the increasing expectation of US interest rate cuts are beneficial to boosting risk preference. The equity market is expected to continue to have a significant impact on the bond market. If the scale of fixed - income + wealth management continues to grow, it may support the demand for medium - to - high - grade, medium - and short - duration non - financial credit bonds, but it may be difficult to reverse the overall trend of credit bonds. It is recommended to shorten the duration [15][17] 3.2信用债收益率全览 - Last week (August 18 - 22, 2025), the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. Credit bonds continued to weaken, performed worse than interest - rate bonds, and the spreads widened overall. Short - duration credit bond yields rose relatively slightly, with a maximum increase of no more than 8bp; among medium - and long - duration bonds, the 10 - year AAA - grade urban investment bond had the largest increase of 13bp. Urban investment bonds had the largest average increase in yields, and short - end industrial bonds were similar to urban investment bonds, while medium - and long - duration industrial bonds performed better than urban investment bonds. The 3 - year financial bonds performed the worst [22] 3.3一级市场 - **3.1发行量** - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the net financing scale increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly driven by financial bonds. From August 18 - 22, the credit bond issuance scale was 401.875 billion yuan, an increase of 49.2 billion yuan month - on - month and a decrease of 30.1 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of credit bonds was 102.761 billion yuan [34] - **3.2发行成本** - The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased month - on - month. Last week, the average issuance interest rate of credit bonds was 2.21%, an increase of 1bp month - on - month. The average issuance interest rates of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by 8bp and 2bp respectively month - on - month, while that of financial bonds decreased by 3bp month - on - month [41] - **3.3发行期限** - The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. Last week, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 3.15 years, a decrease of 0.27 years month - on - month. The average issuance terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.28, 0.05, and 0.6 years respectively month - on - month [43] - **3.4取消发行情况** - Last week, the number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased month - on - month but were still the fifth - highest since 2023. From August 18 - 22, 18 bonds were cancelled, a decrease of 1 bond month - on - month; the total scale of cancelled issuances was 15.275 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.745 billion yuan month - on - month [46] 3.4二级市场 - **4.1成交量** - Last week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.2863 trillion yuan, an increase of 93 billion yuan month - on - month. Except for the bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds and brokerage sub - bonds, the trading volume of other credit bond varieties decreased. In terms of remaining term, trading terms of different types of bonds shifted; in terms of implied rating, trading of different types of bonds also shifted [50][53][54] - **4.2成交流动性** - Last week, the turnover rates of urban investment bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of industrial bonds decreased. For urban investment bonds, except for the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year bonds, the turnover rates of other terms increased; for industrial bonds, the turnover rates of all terms decreased; for financial bonds, except for the under - 1 - year bonds, the turnover rates of other terms increased [56] - **4.3利差跟踪** - Last week, most credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened. Except for the 1 - year AAA - grade and AA+ - grade bonds, the spreads of other terms and ratings widened. Most spreads of AAA - grade industrial bonds, except for the commercial trade industry, widened, and all spreads of AA - grade industrial bonds widened. Most spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened. The spreads of brokerage sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds widened across the board [60][68][70] 3.5周度热债一览 - The report selected the top 20 credit bonds in terms of liquidity scores for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds respectively, providing reference for investors [75] 3.6信用评级调整回顾 - According to domestic rating agencies, there were no debt - rating adjustments last week [80]
西部证券晨会纪要-20250825
Western Securities· 2025-08-25 07:47
Group 1: Resident Deposit Migration - The report indicates that resident deposit migration is expected to begin, typically occurring 10-12 months after a market transition from bear to bull, with the current period being 11 months since the last transition [1][6][7] - Initial signs of deposit migration have emerged, with a notable increase in non-bank deposit growth turning positive, suggesting potential for significant market inflow [6][9] - Short-term market consolidation of 2-3 months is anticipated as deposits begin to migrate, based on historical patterns observed in previous bull markets [8][9] Group 2: Unmanned Sanitation Vehicles - The unmanned sanitation vehicle market is projected to reach a scale of approximately 123 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth expected as the industry transitions from the 0-1 stage to mass production [12][14] - The economic benefits of unmanned sanitation vehicles are substantial, with potential labor cost savings of 12-16 million yuan per vehicle by replacing 3-4 workers, leading to a cost reduction of up to 66% under certain conditions [13][15] - The market for unmanned sanitation vehicles is estimated to be worth between 1.16 trillion and 2.91 trillion yuan, depending on the replacement rate of sanitation workers [14][15] Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment - The report highlights a significant growth potential in the semiconductor equipment sector, particularly in the context of domestic AI development and the need for self-sufficient supply chains [3][18] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market has an average annual scale of approximately 41.7 billion USD, with expectations for continued expansion driven by AI applications [19] - Key companies in the semiconductor equipment space are recommended for investment, including those involved in front-end and back-end equipment, as well as the photolithography supply chain [19] Group 4: Power Prediction Business - The company is recognized as a leader in power prediction, with a projected net profit growth of 40% to 27% from 2025 to 2027, supported by a strong market demand and technological barriers [4][22][24] - The number of service sites for power prediction has increased significantly, indicating robust growth in this segment, with a 55.14% increase in revenue from power prediction services [23] - The company is actively investing in strategic partnerships to enhance its market position in the renewable energy sector [24] Group 5: Wind Power Equipment - The company has reported a 41.26% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by a significant rise in wind turbine sales, which saw a 106.58% increase in sales capacity [32][33] - The company’s gross margin for wind turbine sales has improved, reflecting operational efficiencies and increased demand [33] - Future projections indicate continued growth in net profit, with expectations of 63.8% growth from 2025 to 2027 [35] Group 6: Lithium Battery Materials - The company has achieved a 28.97% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with expectations for further price stabilization and growth in the second half of the year [37][38] - The company is focusing on innovation in lithium battery materials, with significant investments in new technologies and production capabilities [38][39] - Projections for net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 are robust, with an anticipated increase of 68.5% [39]
会稽山(601579):高端化驱动毛利率抬升,全国化拓展初见成效
Western Securities· 2025-08-25 07:21
产品结构升级,毛利率显著提升:公司高端化、年轻化战略成效显著。高端 "兰亭"系列与次高端"1743"系列延续高增态势,带动公司 2025H1 毛利率高 增 5.4pct 至 55.4%(25Q2 毛利率+3.1pct 至 47.9%)。25H1 中高端/普通/ 其他黄酒收入同比分别+7.2%/+2.5%/+60.5%至 5.2/2.0/0.7 亿元(25Q2 上 述 3 档黄酒营收同比分别-0.7%/+5%/+147.4%至 1.9/0.9/0.5 亿元)。 品宣成本拉高销售费用率,管理费用有所优化:25H1 公司销售/管理/研发/ 财务费用率同比分别+7.3pct/-3.4pct/-0.6pct/+0.3pct。销售费用同比大增 53.7%至 2.2 亿元,主因广宣费高增 87%至 1.2 亿元;管理费用率节约主要 来自折旧费、排污检验费、职工薪酬等。25Q2 销售/管理/财务费用率同比分 别+8pct/-5.2pct/-3.2pct/+0.7pct。 公司点评 | 会稽山 高端化驱动毛利率抬升,全国化拓展初见成效 会稽山(601579.SH)2025 年半年报点评 事件:公司发布 25 年半年报,25H1 ...
三祥新材(603663):2025年半年报业绩点评:25H1业绩符合预期,锆铪分离有望贡献业绩弹性
Western Securities· 2025-08-25 07:21
公司点评 | 三祥新材 25H1 业绩符合预期,锆铪分离有望贡献业绩弹性 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 三祥新材(603663.SH)2025 年半年报业绩点评 事件:公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。25H1 公司实现营收 5.62 亿元,同比-7.35%; 实现归母净利润 0.45 亿元,同比-28.45%,实现扣非归母净利润 0.45 亿元,同 比-17.78%;实现销售毛利率 23.10%,同比-4.47pct,销售净利率 8.04%,同 比-3.44pct。分季度看,25Q2 公司实现营收 3.31 亿元,同环比-5.59%/+43.51%, 实现归母净利润 0.31 亿元,同环比-27.79%/+132.44%,实现扣非归母净利润 0.33 亿元,同环比-17.34%/+192.51%。业绩符合市场预期。 公司海绵锆市占率较高,积极探索新兴应用场景。国内核电建设稳步推进,2025 年上半年新增核电装机容量约 2GW,带动核级海绵锆需求提升。锆基催化剂在 PTA、环氧丙烷等化工领域需求稳定,成为海绵锆消费的重要支撑。欧美市场需 求有所回暖,出口量同比增长 8%。2025 年上半年, ...
康农种业(837403):2025半年报点评:多区域成本下降,玉米杂交种子毛利率稳定提升
Western Securities· 2025-08-22 08:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 0.46 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.68%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.09 billion yuan, an increase of 12.22% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 0.22 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 67.73%, and a net profit of 0.10 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4] - The decline in revenue from hybrid corn seeds was primarily due to the earlier timing of the Lunar New Year in 2025, which led to a concentration of sales in December 2024 [2][3] - The gross margin for H1 2025 reached 39.46%, an increase of 13.47 percentage points year-on-year, with hybrid corn seeds achieving a gross margin of 40.45% [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - H1 2025 revenue breakdown: hybrid corn seeds 0.43 billion yuan (down 5.12%), no revenue from konjac seeds and traditional Chinese medicine seedlings, and other revenues of 0.03 billion yuan (up 56.37%) [2] Profitability - The company’s gross margin improved significantly, with hybrid corn seeds and other businesses achieving margins of 40.45% and 25.97%, respectively [2] Market Strategy - Domestically, the company is strengthening its core position in the Southwest and expanding into the Huanghuaihai market, while also innovating sales strategies and enhancing online presence [3] - Internationally, the company has developed multiple hybrid corn varieties suitable for different climates and is actively entering markets in Southeast Asia and Africa [3] Financial Projections - Future revenue projections are 4.49 billion yuan for 2025, 5.80 billion yuan for 2026, and 7.22 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits expected to reach 1.03 billion yuan, 1.32 billion yuan, and 1.67 billion yuan respectively [3][8]
北交所市场点评:指数回调1.6%,持续关注中报业绩及科技主线标的
Western Securities· 2025-08-22 07:28
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a focus on high-growth sectors and mentions the potential for structural differentiation in the market [4][34]. Core Insights - The market experienced a decline, with the North Exchange A-share trading volume reaching 36.819 billion yuan, down by 3.87 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1589.40, down 1.60% [2][8]. - There is a notable divergence in stock performance, with certain sectors like information technology and healthcare showing resilience, while others, particularly in the automotive parts sector, faced significant adjustments [4]. - The report highlights the importance of government support for specialized and innovative enterprises, indicating that the recent deep adjustment in the North Exchange specialized and innovative index may provide a window for medium to long-term investment [4][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On August 21, the North Exchange A-share trading volume was 36.819 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.87 billion yuan from the previous day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1589.40, down 1.60% [2][8]. - Among 272 companies listed on the North Exchange, 71 saw an increase, 6 remained flat, and 195 experienced a decline [16]. Key Company Announcements - Haisheng Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 130 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.04%, with a net profit of 31 million yuan, up 35.87% [22]. - Kangle Guardian reported a revenue of 102 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.66%, with a net profit of 10 million yuan, up 1.47% [23]. Important News - The government plans to introduce a 500 billion yuan "quasi-fiscal" tool to support emerging industries and infrastructure, focusing on areas such as the digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon initiatives [20]. - DeepSeek released a new version optimized for next-generation domestic chips, enhancing efficiency and agent capabilities [21].
无人车系列专题报告1:无人环卫车:千亿市场空间设备+运营双重受益
Western Securities· 2025-08-22 06:30
证券研究报告 千亿市场空间,设备+运营双重受益 —无人车系列专题报告1:无人环卫车 西部证券研发中心 2025年8月22日 分析师 |王昊哲 S0800525080003 邮箱地址:wanghaozhe@xbmail.com.cn 分析师 |张恒晅 S0800525020001 邮箱地址:zhanghengxuan@research.xbmail.com.cn 联系人 | 郭义俊 邮箱地址:guoyijun09660@xbmail.com.cn 核心结论 设备+运营构筑核心壁垒,测算无人环卫对项目利润弹性可达172% 投资建议 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 3 • 我国城市道路清扫保洁面积以及环卫行业市场规模稳步提升,我们认为环卫行业属于刚性支出,但受宏观影响近年政府回款履约进度有些拖累, 环卫领域上市公司的应收账款周转率处于历史低点。我们认为,随着无人环卫走过0-1阶段进入量产,智慧环卫类专项资金以及化债等政策的逐 步落地,环卫领域企业回款有望迎来修复拐点。 • 不止于设备销售,自营项目无人渗透加速释放利润弹性。无人环卫持续强化行业的核心竞争壁垒,环卫服务的本质仍是对人力和车辆资源的精细 化管 ...
金斯瑞生物科技(01548):2025年半年报点评:CDMO核心业务持续复苏,生命科学稳健增长
Western Securities· 2025-08-22 05:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $519 million in the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 81.9%. The gross profit was approximately $320 million, up 140.1%, and the adjusted net profit was about $178 million, reflecting a significant increase of 509.6%. The net loss was reduced to $24.5 million compared to a net loss of $216 million in the same period of 2024 [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the life sciences services and products generated approximately $248 million in revenue, a growth of 11.3%, with an adjusted gross profit of $126 million, up 5.3%. The adjusted operating profit was about $46.35 million, down 3.2% [2]. - The CDMO segment reported revenue of approximately $247 million, a remarkable increase of 511.1%, with an adjusted operating profit of $150 million, compared to a loss of $18.88 million in H1 2024. This growth was driven by significant licensing revenue and double-digit growth in regular income [2]. - The company secured 20 new CDMO projects for antibody protein drugs, with over 50% from global clients, and 30 new CDMO projects in CGT, including one CAR-T project [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of $927 million, $803 million, and $905 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 56.0%, -13.4%, and 12.6% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to be $84 million in 2025, with a significant recovery projected in subsequent years [4]. Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 48.8% in 2023, expected to rise to 56.8% in 2025, and a projected return on equity (ROE) of 1.9% in 2025, improving to 6.4% by 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be $0.04 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 472.05 [4][10].
无人车系列专题报告1:无人环卫车:千亿市场空间,设备+运营双重受益
Western Securities· 2025-08-22 05:24
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the unmanned sanitation vehicle sector addresses the aging workforce and rising labor costs in the sanitation industry [4] - The total bidding amount for unmanned sanitation projects in the first half of 2025 has already exceeded the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a market potential reaching hundreds of billions [5][34] - The report estimates that the market space for unmanned sanitation vehicles could reach up to 1 trillion yuan, with various scenarios predicting market sizes of 1164 billion, 1746 billion, and 2910 billion yuan based on different labor replacement ratios [10][39] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The unmanned sanitation vehicle is a key segment in the low-speed unmanned vehicle market, primarily focusing on cleaning public spaces using advanced sensors and algorithms [10] - In 2024, the sales scale of the low-speed unmanned driving industry in China is projected to be approximately 12.3 billion yuan, with the unmanned cleaning market holding the largest share [10] Economic Analysis - The report calculates significant cost savings from using unmanned sanitation vehicles, estimating a reduction of 25% to 66% in labor costs depending on the vehicle's cost and the number of workers replaced [30][32] Industry Trends - The report notes a rapid increase in the number of projects awarded in the unmanned sanitation sector, with 70 billion yuan in contracts awarded in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [34] - The technology reliability of unmanned sanitation equipment has been validated, with vehicles designed to operate safely and efficiently in various environments [34] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by collaboration between technology companies and sanitation service providers, with a focus on integrating unmanned vehicles into operational scenarios to enhance profitability [46] - The report identifies key players in the market, including companies like Jinjun Environment, Yuhua Tian, and Fulongma, which are actively developing and deploying unmanned sanitation solutions [55][66][74] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as the unmanned sanitation sector transitions from the initial phase to mass production, companies in this field are expected to experience significant growth in both equipment sales and operational profitability [82]
西部证券晨会纪要-20250822
Western Securities· 2025-08-22 01:22
Group 1: Zhongtong Express (中通快递) - Profitability under pressure, adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 decreased by 26.8% YoY, with a single ticket net profit of 0.21 CNY, down 12 cents YoY [2][7][10] - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached 11.8 billion CNY, a 10.3% increase YoY, while H1 2025 revenue was 22.7 billion CNY, up 9.8% YoY [7][9] - Market share increased to 19.5% in Q2 2025, with a package volume of 9.85 billion pieces, up 16.5% YoY [9][10] - Capital expenditure for 2025 expected to remain flat or slightly decrease, with H1 2025 capital expenditure at 3.1 billion CNY [9][10] - Mid-term dividend of 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [9][10] Group 2: Yuanda Pharmaceutical (远大医药) - Revenue for H1 2025 was 6.107 billion HKD, a 1.0% increase YoY, with net profit of 1.169 billion HKD, slightly down by 5.9% YoY [3][12] - The nuclear medicine segment saw a revenue increase of 105.5% YoY, contributing significantly to overall growth [12][13] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.254 billion, 13.376 billion, and 14.779 billion HKD, with net profits of 2.185 billion, 2.462 billion, and 2.706 billion HKD respectively [14] Group 3: Yuandong Bio (苑东生物) - H1 2025 revenue was 654 million CNY, down 2.3% YoY, with net profit of 137 million CNY, down 6.8% YoY [4][16] - The company is focusing on self-research and strategic investments to accelerate innovation [16][17] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.501 billion, 1.795 billion, and 2.202 billion CNY, with net profits of 282 million, 345 million, and 431 million CNY respectively [18] Group 4: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) - H1 2025 revenue reached 13.876 billion CNY, a 204.4% increase YoY, with net profit of 4.574 billion CNY, up 396.5% YoY [19][20] - The company is expanding its global presence, with significant growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions [19][20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.128 billion, 15.332 billion, and 20.295 billion CNY, with substantial YoY growth rates [21] Group 5: Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 28.944 billion CNY, down 14.06% YoY, while net profit increased by 18.63% to 1.463 billion CNY [23][24] - High-end products contributed significantly to profit, with advanced steel materials accounting for 29.77% of total sales [24] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, including a new coke production base in Indonesia [24] Group 6: Huayang Group (华阳集团) - H1 2025 revenue was 5.311 billion CNY, a 26.65% increase YoY, with net profit of 341 million CNY, up 18.98% YoY [26][27] - The automotive electronics and precision die-casting segments are driving growth, with significant new orders from major global clients [26][27] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.71 billion, 15.89 billion, and 19.17 billion CNY, with net profits of 870 million, 1.15 billion, and 1.43 billion CNY respectively [27] Group 7: Shenhuo Co. (神火股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 20.428 billion CNY, up 12.12% YoY, while net profit decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion CNY [29][30] - The aluminum business is the main contributor to revenue, while coal business faced significant price declines [30][31] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.41, 2.67, and 2.96 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [31] Group 8: Beixin Building Materials (北新建材) - H1 2025 revenue was 13.558 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.29% YoY, with net profit down 12.85% [33][34] - The gypsum board business is under pressure, while waterproof and paint businesses are showing growth [34][35] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.935 billion, 4.464 billion, and 4.952 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 2.33, 2.64, and 2.93 CNY [35]