Group 1: ETF Day Trading Momentum Strategy - The report upgrades the original day trading momentum strategy to version 2.0, addressing execution difficulties, premature exits, and profit retracement issues, resulting in improved applicability and enhanced risk-reward ratios [1][6][8] - The improved strategy shows an annualized return of 18.9% from January 25, 2013, to October 10, 2025, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.10 and a Calmar ratio of 2.86, maintaining a win rate above 50% [9][10] - Implementing a 50% base position in ETFs and ETF combinations leads to significant excess returns compared to a buy-and-hold strategy, with an annualized excess return of 10.1% and 9.2% for the respective ETFs [10] Group 2: Lithium Battery Industry Strategy - The lithium battery supply-demand landscape is expected to reverse in 2026, driven by stable growth in global power battery demand and high demand for energy storage batteries in domestic and overseas markets [11][12] - Key recommendations include companies like Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy in the battery segment, and Keda Li and Dongsheng Technology in the materials segment, with a focus on head manufacturers benefiting from capacity concentration and high-end trends [11][12] Group 3: Power Equipment Industry Strategy - The power equipment sector is projected to grow due to rising global power infrastructure investment and domestic market reforms, with a focus on high demand for power equipment exports and energy structure changes [15][16] - Key investment themes include the expansion of AI-driven power demand and the ongoing market reforms that will enhance grid investment, with recommendations for companies like Sanyuan Electric and Dongfang Electric [16] Group 4: Automotive Industry Strategy - The automotive industry is expected to develop steadily, driven by exports and the integration of AI technologies, with recommendations for companies such as Li Auto, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [18][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-end and export-oriented strategies for both complete vehicles and components, with a focus on the growth of new energy vehicles and the recovery of commercial vehicle sales [20][21]

Core Conclusions - The report upgrades the original intraday momentum strategy to version 2.0, addressing issues such as execution difficulties, premature exits, and profit retracement, resulting in improved applicability and enhanced risk-reward ratios [1][2] - The improved strategy utilizes delayed exits and tiered profit-taking to enhance the risk-reward ratio and win rate [1] - By applying the strategy with a 50% base position in individual ETFs and ETF combinations, it achieves returns that exceed those of a relative buy-and-hold strategy [1] Summary by Sections 1. Review of Intraday Momentum Strategy and Out-of-Sample Performance - The original strategy faced challenges in executing trades at the next minute's opening price after a signal was generated, leading to the adoption of a 5-minute VWAP/TWAP for execution, which improved the strategy's feasibility [19] - The strategy's performance from January 25, 2013, to October 10, 2025, showed an annualized return of 18.9% with a Sharpe ratio of 2.10 and a Calmar ratio of 2.86, maintaining a win rate above 50% [2] 2. Improvements to the Intraday Momentum Strategy 2.1 Issue 1: Execution Difficulties - The strategy was modified to use the 5-minute VWAP/TWAP for trade execution instead of the next minute's opening price, which improved the strategy's feasibility while still providing an advantage over a buy-and-hold approach [19][20] 2.2 Issue 2: Premature Exits - The original strategy's strict exit conditions led to premature closures of positions. By relaxing these conditions, the strategy was able to capture more intraday gains, significantly improving returns [24][29] 2.3 Issue 3: Profit Retracement - The introduction of tiered profit-taking methods helped mitigate profit retracement, thereby reducing drawdowns and enhancing overall performance [1][2] 3. Application of the Improved Strategy - The improved strategy was applied to the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 1000 ETF, yielding annualized excess returns of 10.1% and 9.2%, respectively, while also reducing maximum drawdowns [3] - A portfolio of 22 industry ETFs, allocated equally with a 50% total position, achieved an annualized return of 10.4%, outperforming the buy-and-hold strategy by approximately 3 percentage points [3]

Group 1 - The communication sector experienced a significant increase in valuation, with the communication index rising by 73.0% in 2025, ranking second among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan classification [1][15][24] - The growth in the communication industry is primarily driven by AI computing power, leading to accelerated technological iterations and scale growth across the entire AI computing power supply chain [1][15] - The report emphasizes the focus on the supply-demand imbalance in AI computing power and the evolution of new technologies, particularly the entry of low-orbit satellites into a prosperous cycle [1][2] Group 2 - AI computing power is entering a new stage, with structural changes expected in 2026, including a shift in demand from training to inference computing power [2][26] - The capital expenditure (Capex) investment structure is stabilizing among leading cloud providers, with second-tier cloud providers beginning to join the market [2][35] - The architecture of computing power networks is evolving, with scale-up and scale-across strategies contributing to increased network demand [2][42] Group 3 - The optical interconnection sector is facing supply-demand imbalances, particularly in optical modules, optical chips, and Faraday rotators, with a focus on technological trends such as 1.6T, silicon photonics, OCS, and CPO [3][51][54] - The liquid cooling market is at a historic turning point, with significant demand in North America, Southeast Asia, and China, particularly driven by the North American computing power market [3][11] - The IDC industry is expected to maintain an expansion trend driven by AI development, with an increase in AIDC penetration rates anticipated for 2026 [4][11] Group 4 - The report highlights the importance of breakthroughs in rocket capacity as a key variable for the commercial aerospace industry in China, with low-orbit satellite internet expected to enter an accelerated prosperity phase [1][11][24] - The commercial aerospace industry is a key focus area supported by national policies, with significant growth potential anticipated as satellite and computing power converge for space data processing [11][24][25] - The report suggests monitoring the success rates of various rocket models and their capacity planning as the industry matures [11][24]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the power equipment sector, with the power equipment index rising by 36.37% as of December 16, 2025, driven by the surge in power demand from AI and the robust domestic energy storage needs [1][12][14] - The outlook for 2026 anticipates continued growth in global power infrastructure investment, focusing on two main themes: overseas expansion of power equipment and domestic market reforms [1][18] Group 1: Global Power Demand and Investment - The AI wave is driving an increase in global power demand, leading to higher requirements for power grids, particularly in North America, where aging infrastructure needs replacement [2][20] - Global power grid investment is projected to reach $413.3 billion in 2025, a 6.63% increase from 2024, with North America, Europe, and China being the primary growth regions [20][21] - The report recommends companies such as Sanyuan Electric, Dongfang Electric, and Shunhua Power as potential beneficiaries of this trend [2][18] Group 2: Domestic Market Reforms and Opportunities - The introduction of policies requiring all renewable energy to enter market trading is expected to enhance investment in power grids, particularly in high-voltage and distribution networks [19][39] - The report emphasizes the need for companies that can address regional resource mismatches through high-voltage and main grid construction, recommending firms like XJ Electric and Pinggao Electric [19][39] - The ongoing reforms in the electricity market are anticipated to create new opportunities for investment in power grid infrastructure, particularly in digitalization and resource optimization [19][39] Group 3: Export Opportunities and Market Dynamics - The report notes a strong performance in exports of power equipment, with transformers, high-voltage switches, insulators, and cables showing over 30% growth, indicating a robust overseas demand [20][22] - Companies with overseas capabilities, such as Dongfang Electric and Siemens Energy, are expected to benefit from the increasing backlog of orders in the global gas turbine market [25][33] - The report highlights that the demand for gas-fired power generation equipment is rising due to the growing electricity needs in North America, particularly from data centers [31][33]

Core Conclusions - The report highlights the potential impact of Japan's interest rate hike on global liquidity, suggesting that while there are concerns, the actual shock may be limited due to previous adjustments in the market [7][8][9] - The medical device and healthcare sectors are expected to rebound, driven by innovation and international expansion, despite current pressures from macroeconomic factors [2][14] - The energy storage industry is poised for growth, supported by favorable policies and increasing demand, with key players identified for investment [3][18][19] Group 1: Strategy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for AH shares, with strategic allocations in government bonds and gold, while US stocks and bonds may remain volatile [1][13] - Japan's potential interest rate hike is seen as a catalyst for global liquidity concerns, but the actual impact may be mitigated by prior market adjustments and the current economic environment [7][8][9] Group 2: Medical Device and Healthcare Sector - The medical device sector is currently undervalued, with significant potential for recovery driven by innovation and government support for healthcare services [2][14] - Key areas of focus include domestic device upgrades, international market expansion, and the recovery of hospital services, with specific recommendations for investment in leading companies [14][15][16] Group 3: Energy Storage Industry - The energy storage sector is experiencing robust growth, with a projected global installed capacity of 329 GWh by 2025, reflecting an 87% year-on-year increase [19] - Key recommendations include investing in leading battery manufacturers and energy storage system providers, as demand continues to outpace supply [20][19] Group 4: Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market is facing challenges, with a notable decline in sales volume and prices, indicating ongoing pressure in the sector [21][22] - The report anticipates a continued low-level fluctuation in the market, with potential policy adjustments expected after the Spring Festival [23]

Group 1 - The report highlights that domestic and international policies are driving significant growth in the energy storage industry, with China's "136" document and various provincial regulations promoting independent energy storage development [1][19]. - In 2025, global energy storage installations are expected to reach 329 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 87%, with a compound annual growth rate of 86% projected from 2025 to 2027 [2][40]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: the first focuses on energy storage battery manufacturers like CATL and EVE Energy, while the second emphasizes energy storage system providers such as Sungrow and Canadian Solar [3][18]. Group 2 - The report outlines that various countries are implementing supportive policies for energy storage, with China introducing market-oriented reforms and capacity compensation mechanisms [19][20]. - In the U.S., states are actively promoting energy storage through subsidies and regulatory measures, with California and New York setting ambitious storage installation targets [24][25]. - European countries are also enhancing their energy storage policies, with significant subsidies being introduced to support the integration of renewable energy sources [29][31]. Group 3 - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a tightening supply of upstream battery cells, while leading companies in the energy storage system segment are expected to maintain strong performance [2][33]. - The report notes that as renewable energy installations increase, the demand for energy storage products will grow, driven by the need for energy consumption management [17][40]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of energy storage battery manufacturers is likely to improve due to rising prices and demand exceeding supply [2][3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - In November, the sales area and sales amount decreased by 18.6% and 27.6% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline in sales amount widening while the decline in sales area narrowed [1][2] - The average residential sales price in November was 9,594 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, indicating significant market pressure [1][2] - The central economic work conference emphasized stability in real estate policies for the coming year, focusing on using existing stock for affordable housing, but did not mention strong expectations for mortgage subsidies [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - November's residential sales area decreased by 18.6% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the decline compared to the previous month [1] - The cumulative sales area from January to November showed a decline of 8.1%, which is a worsening of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The sales amount in November fell by 27.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.03 percentage points from the previous month [1][2] Investment and Construction - The industry development investment in November decreased by 30.3% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 7.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - New construction area in November was down by 27.6% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month [2] - The completion area also saw a significant decline of 25.5% year-on-year, with the decline worsening by 25.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Funding Sources - The funds received in November decreased by 32.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 10.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Personal mortgage loans fell by 35.4% year-on-year, indicating a tightening in funding availability [2] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on second-hand housing transaction leaders such as Beike, regional leaders like Binjiang Group, quality state-owned enterprises like Yuexiu Property, and private enterprises with valuation recovery potential like New Town Holdings [3] - It also recommends paying attention to industry leaders among central state-owned enterprises such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Greentown China [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) [6] Core Views - Luoyang Molybdenum has announced the acquisition of 100% equity in three gold mining assets in Brazil from Equinox Gold for a total consideration of $1.015 billion, expected to close in Q1 2026, pending regulatory approvals [1][6] - The acquisition includes Aurizona, RDM, and Bahia mining complexes, with a total gold resource of 156 tons and an estimated production of approximately 7.7 tons in 2024 [2][3] - The company is accelerating its gold asset layout, aiming for nearly 20 tons of annual gold production post-acquisition, which is expected to initiate a second growth curve for the company [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 186.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 241.72 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.7% [4] - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from 8.25 billion CNY in 2023 to 28.08 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 36% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.39 CNY in 2023 to 1.31 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 46.5 to 13.7 over the same period [4][10]

Group 1: Banking Sector - The report anticipates that banks will maintain a certain demand for bond allocation in 2026, with an estimated bond allocation amount of 9.19 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.4% [1][8] - In 2025, the bond allocation scale of banks increased significantly, with a cumulative bond allocation of 8.2 trillion yuan from January to October, representing a 24% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [7] - The report highlights a structural differentiation in bond allocation, with state-owned banks and city commercial banks increasing their allocation due to relatively sufficient funds, while rural commercial banks showed weaker allocation due to higher deposit pressure [7] Group 2: Defense and Military Industry - The defense industry is expected to focus on domestic demand and military trade breakthroughs, with a projected defense budget of 1.78 trillion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.15% [12] - Key investment areas include the military aircraft engine supply chain, infrared technology for dual-use, and laser weapons with high application prospects in anti-drone fields, with specific companies recommended for investment [2][13] - The report notes that the military-civilian integration will provide long-term alpha for military enterprises, emphasizing the importance of transitioning from scale expansion to high-quality development [2][13] Group 3: Macroeconomic Overview - The report indicates that economic growth momentum remains weak, particularly in domestic demand, with industrial and service sector growth rates continuing to decline [3][15] - November data shows a significant drop in fixed asset investment, with a cumulative decline of 2.6% from January to November, and a 30.3% year-on-year decrease in real estate development investment [16] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to expand domestic demand and implement more proactive fiscal policies to address the supply-demand imbalance [17] Group 4: Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance sector is advised to focus on leading companies with strong configuration value, particularly in the white goods segment, with recommendations for Haier and Midea [4][24] - The report highlights the importance of innovation in smart terminals and suggests monitoring companies like Anker Innovation and Roborock for potential growth opportunities [4][24] - The impact of subsidy policies and market sentiment is noted, with expectations for a stable domestic market for home appliances if subsidy policies continue [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", the previous rating was also "Overweight", and the rating remains unchanged [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, fiscal policy was proactive. The issuance scale of government bonds increased significantly year - on - year and the issuance rhythm was advanced, leading to an increase in banks' bond allocation scale. The bond allocation rhythm was low in the first half and high in the second half, with structural differentiation. Banks increased their allocation of treasury bonds and reduced their allocation of certificates of deposit [12]. - It is expected that in 2026, banks will still maintain a certain demand for bond allocation, with a slightly stronger intensity than in 2025. The estimated bond allocation amount for banks in 2026E is 9.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.4% [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Commercial Bank Bond Allocation Review 1.1 Fiscal Policy Is Proactive, and Banks' Bond Allocation Scale Increases Year - on - Year - The issuance scale of government bonds increased significantly year - on - year in 2025, and the issuance rhythm was advanced. From January to November, the net financing of government bonds (treasury bonds + local special bonds) increased by 3.07 trillion yuan year - on - year, and 96% of the annual issuance plan was completed [17]. - From January to October, commercial banks' cumulative bond allocation scale was 8.2 trillion yuan, a 24% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The allocation proportion of treasury bonds reached a peak in the past three years (56%), and the market share of narrow - sense interest - rate bond allocation also increased significantly [19] 1.2 Banks' Bond Allocation Rhythm Is Low in the First Half and High in the Second Half - In the first quarter, banks' bond allocation demand was weak due to the "good start" of credit and the upward pressure on long - term interest rates. Since the second quarter, with the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, the decline in infrastructure and industrial investment, and the weakening of public - sector credit demand, combined with the periodic rise of long - term interest rates, banks' bond allocation demand has recovered [25] 1.3 Structural Differentiation: State - owned Big Banks and City Commercial Banks Strengthen Their Bond Allocation - State - owned big banks have a strong customer base and stable core deposits. Their deposit growth rate has continued to pick up this year, and their bond allocation intensity has increased moderately due to the imbalance between deposit and loan growth rates [32]. - The deposit growth of joint - stock banks has slowed down. Although their financial investment growth rate has generally recovered, their overall bond allocation intensity is weaker than that of state - owned big banks due to the limited scale of available funds [32]. - City commercial banks have sufficient available funds due to high deposit growth and high expansion rates, so their bond allocation intensity has increased [35]. - Rural commercial banks may have greater deposit - taking pressure and less new available funds. They have disposed of more financial investment assets to make up for profits, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of investment assets [35] 1.4 Increase in Treasury Bond Allocation and Decrease in Certificate of Deposit Allocation - The proportion of listed banks' financial investment has generally increased, with a significant increase in the investment proportion of state - owned banks. As of the end of October 2025, the proportion of treasury bond allocation in banks' stock bond investment structure increased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year, while the proportion of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1.4 percentage points [41]. - The increase in treasury bond allocation is due to the weak credit expansion of the private sector and the continuous increase in government financing demand. The decrease in certificate of deposit allocation is due to the continuous decline in the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit and the narrowing of the spread with banks' deposit - taking costs [46] 2026 Commercial Bank Bond Allocation Outlook 2.1 From the Total Amount Perspective: The Available Funds for Allocation Will Grow Steadily, and the Bond Allocation Demand Is Expected to Recover - Deposit growth has stabilized and increased. The deposit growth rate of residents has remained stable, and the deposit growth rate of non - financial enterprises has turned positive. The bond - issuing rate of large banks with good credit has increased significantly in the first three quarters, while that of small and medium - sized banks has decreased [51]. - The repair of the public - sector expenditure side will drive the recovery of effective financing demand, and the bond allocation scale of commercial banks is expected to increase steadily [57] 2.2 From the Duration Perspective - **① The demand for medium - and long - term bond allocation may increase under the trend of deposit term - to - maturity**: Since 2018, the proportion of time deposits on the liability side of banks has continued to rise. It is expected that the trend of deposit term - to - maturity will continue in 2026, and banks may increase their allocation of medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds to cover the more rigid deposit interest - payment costs [60]. - **② Banks' allocation of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may be restricted under duration constraints**: Banks need to consider indicators such as interest - rate risk sensitivity, liquidity coverage ratio, and economic value change when allocating bonds. As of the end of 2024, some state - owned big banks' ΔEVE has exceeded 14% of their Tier - 1 capital, and their allocation space for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may be relatively limited [64][68] 2.3 From the Liability Cost Perspective: The Cost of FTP for Proprietary Investment Decreases - Banks have actively adjusted the liability term structure and controlled costs. It is expected that the deposit repricing effect will continue in 2026, driving the cost of the liability side to decline further and the cost of proprietary bond investment to decrease, which is conducive to banks' bond allocation [79] 2.4 Summary of Banks' Bond Allocation Outlook - It is expected that in 2026, banks will still maintain a certain demand for bond allocation, with a slightly stronger intensity than in the previous year. From the perspective of asset growth rate, available funds are expected to grow steadily; from the perspective of asset - liability duration, banks may increase their allocation of medium - and long - term bonds, but the allocation of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may be restricted; from the perspective of liability cost, banks' willingness to allocate bonds in the financial market may be further enhanced [82]