Economic Performance - The Politburo meeting affirmed the good performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[2] - The meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery and address prominent issues in economic operations, such as insufficient effective demand and low price levels[2] Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the importance of "bottom-line thinking" to safeguard domestic economic and social stability, prioritizing employment as a key policy goal[2] - It was stated that macro policies should continue to exert force and be implemented in a timely manner, with a focus on more proactive fiscal policies in the second half of the year[3] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with expectations for 1-2 interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, totaling a reduction of 20-30 basis points[3] - The meeting indicated that structural monetary policy tools would be utilized to support technology innovation, boost consumption, and stabilize foreign trade, with a new focus on small and micro enterprises[3] Market Competition and Consumption - The meeting called for the promotion of a unified national market and the optimization of market competition order to eliminate disorderly competition[3] - Service consumption is emphasized as a new growth point, with per capita service consumption expenditure increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, accounting for 45% of total per capita consumption expenditure[3] Long-term Planning - The decision to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October to formulate the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal reflects a long-term strategic vision[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as crucial for achieving the long-term goal of socialist modernization, with a focus on new quality productivity and emerging pillar industries[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [3]. Core Insights - The importance of urban renewal has been emphasized, with the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, highlighting the need for high-quality urban renewal in line with the central urban work conference [1][5]. - The urbanization development phase is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, with the urbanization rate expected to reach 67% in 2024, an increase of 6.76 percentage points from 60.24% in 2017 [5]. - Urban renewal is seen as a key driver for improving living conditions, particularly through the renovation of urban villages, with 1,790 projects planned across over 300 cities in 2024 [5]. - The report suggests that urban renewal and the renovation of dilapidated housing will support the construction of livable cities, with potential for overall industry valuation recovery as policy effects become evident [5]. Summary by Sections Urban Renewal - The report discusses the significance of urban renewal as a strategic focus for enhancing urban dynamics and quality of life [5]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting reiterated the importance of urban renewal as a means to optimize urban structure and promote green transformation [5]. Urbanization Trends - The transition of urbanization from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase is noted, with a significant increase in urbanization rates over the past decade [5]. - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% in 2024, reflecting a steady upward trend [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several companies as favorable investment opportunities, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group, among others [5]. - It suggests that the overall industry valuation may see recovery, particularly for leading real estate firms with lower financing costs and high market share in core areas [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the construction industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment growth remains robust, with a broad infrastructure investment growth rate of 8.9% in the first half of 2025, despite a slight decline from previous values [3][30] - Real estate investment continues to face pressure, with a 11.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment in the first half of 2025 [44] - The construction sector is experiencing a slight increase in fund holdings, with a fund holding market value ratio of 0.43% in Q2 2025, which is still below the standard allocation ratio of 1.77% [65][66] Summary by Sections Special Debt Issuance - The pace of special debt issuance has accelerated, with a total of 2.16 trillion yuan issued in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45% [6][3] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds in 2025, focusing on investment construction and land acquisition [6] Infrastructure Investment - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed, with a total of 248,654 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 2.8% year-on-year increase [27] - Infrastructure investment remains resilient, with significant growth in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors, which saw a 22.8% year-on-year increase [35][30] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment and sales continue to decline, with a 3.5% decrease in commodity housing sales area in the first half of 2025 [44] - New construction and completion areas have seen a narrowing decline, with new construction down 20.0% year-on-year but improving from previous months [46] Fund Holdings in Construction - Fund holdings in the construction sector have slightly increased, with a market value of 132.95 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 9.24% increase from Q1 2025 [65] - The construction sector remains underweight compared to the standard allocation, indicating potential for growth [65][66] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stable growth, high dividends, overseas expansion, and regional construction projects, highlighting companies such as China State Construction, China Railway, and others [3][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the construction industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment growth remains robust, with a broad infrastructure investment growth rate of 8.9% in the first half of 2025, despite a slight decline from previous values [3][30] - Real estate investment continues to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 11.2% in real estate development investment in the first half of 2025 [45] - The construction sector is experiencing a slight increase in fund holdings, indicating a low allocation compared to standard configuration ratios [66] Summary by Sections Special Bonds Issuance - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 2.16 trillion yuan issued in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45% [6] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds in 2025, focusing on investment construction and land acquisition [6] Infrastructure Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 248,654 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [27] - The investment in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sector grew by 22.8% year-on-year, although it showed a decline from the previous month [35] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with the decline slightly widening [45] - New housing starts decreased by 20.0% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [47] Construction Sector Holdings - The fund's holdings in the construction sector increased slightly to 0.43% by the end of Q2 2025, still below the standard allocation ratio of 1.77% [66] - Major state-owned enterprises remain the focus of institutional investors, with significant increases in holdings for companies like China State Construction and Sichuan Road and Bridge [72]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment growth remains robust, with special bond issuance accelerating to support major projects [3][6] - Real estate investment and sales are under pressure, but the decline in new construction and completion has narrowed [3][44] - The construction sector is experiencing a slight increase in fund holdings, indicating a low allocation compared to standard benchmarks [3][65] Summary by Sections Special Bond Issuance - The pace of special bond issuance has accelerated in 2025, with a total of 2.16 trillion yuan issued in the first half of the year, a 45% year-on-year increase [6] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds this year, focusing on infrastructure and housing projects [6] Infrastructure Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24.87 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [3][27] - Broad infrastructure investment growth was 8.9%, while narrow infrastructure investment growth was 4.6% [30] - Investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water supply grew by 22.8%, while transportation and storage investment increased by 5.6% [3][35] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment totaled 46.66 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, with sales area declining by 3.5% [44] - New construction area decreased by 20.0%, but the decline rate has narrowed [46] - The policy measures are expected to improve the supply-demand structure in the real estate market [3][44] Fund Holdings in Construction - As of Q2 2025, the fund holdings in the construction sector accounted for 0.43% of the total market, slightly up from the previous quarter [65] - The construction sector remains underweight compared to the standard allocation ratio of 1.77% [65] - Institutional investors are increasingly favoring segments such as housing construction, decoration, and engineering consulting [65][71]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is a significant step towards the "investment in people" policy direction, with a current annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child under three years old, potentially reaching a scale of 1188 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [2][3][6] - The subsidy reflects a new paradigm of central-local cooperation, with a funding distribution ratio of 9:1 between central and local governments, allowing provinces to adjust subsidy standards based on local conditions [4] - The expected gradual increase in birth rates due to the subsidy may lead to a more direct boost in consumption, with an estimated consumption increment of about 780 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] Group 2: Fixed Income and Special Bonds - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated but remains below the average levels of previous years, with a cumulative issuance progress of 49% by the end of June 2025, primarily directed towards debt repayment and real estate [9][10] - The structural changes in project construction indicate a shift towards land acquisition and storage, with significant regional disparities in bond allocation [10][11] - The potential for new infrastructure investments is expected to grow, with traditional infrastructure remaining a key support for economic stability [12][13] Group 3: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing increased fund holdings, with a notable rise in military fund allocations, indicating a favorable investment opportunity driven by domestic demand and military trade [23][25] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is expected to serve as a catalyst for the industry, alongside positive earnings expectations from Q2 reports [25] - The long-term outlook for military equipment demand is optimistic, with significant growth potential anticipated as geopolitical tensions rise [25][26] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - The "anti-involution" sentiment is gaining traction, leading to a strong rebound in lithium prices, which have increased by 27% recently due to stricter mining approvals and a crackdown on low-price competition [27][30] - The current market dynamics suggest that lithium prices may continue to rise, supported by supply uncertainties and ongoing policy adjustments [30] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has shown significant growth, with various metals experiencing price increases [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TCL Electronics with a "Buy" rating [2][5]. Core Views - TCL Electronics is focusing on high-end MiniLED televisions to enhance its global brand strength, with expectations to surpass Samsung in global brand sales within three years [5]. - The company has set ambitious performance targets through stock incentive plans, aiming for significant profit growth in the coming years [5][36]. - The global black television market is shifting in favor of Chinese brands, with TCL positioned to benefit from this trend as competitors like Samsung and LG exit the LCD panel production market [5][63]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for TCL Electronics are as follows: - 2024: 99,322 million HKD - 2025: 114,834 million HKD (growth of 15.6%) - 2026: 128,495 million HKD (growth of 11.9%) - 2027: 142,249 million HKD (growth of 10.7%) [2][5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 1,759 million HKD - 2025: 2,378 million HKD (growth of 35.2%) - 2026: 2,878 million HKD (growth of 21.1%) - 2027: 3,463 million HKD (growth of 20.3%) [2][5]. Market Trends - The global television market is experiencing stable demand, with a notable increase in Mini LED technology adoption, expected to grow significantly in the coming years [49][50]. - The trend towards larger screen sizes is becoming mainstream, with a projected increase in demand for televisions over 80 inches [57]. - High refresh rate televisions are also seeing rapid growth, with expectations for significant increases in market share [60]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a shift in the competitive landscape, with Korean companies like Samsung and LG exiting the LCD panel market, which may benefit TCL and other Chinese brands [63][64]. - TCL's strategy of focusing on high-end products and large screens is expected to improve its market position against traditional competitors [5][63].

Group 1: Subsidy Overview - The childcare subsidy program will provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for infants under three years old starting January 1, 2025[1] - The estimated total fiscal support for the subsidy will reach approximately 118.8 billion yuan in 2025, 117.7 billion yuan in 2026, and 116.2 billion yuan in 2027[1] - By 2028, the estimated fiscal subsidy amount will decrease to 95.7 billion yuan as the subsidies for children born before 2025 will have been fully disbursed[1] Group 2: Financial Structure - The central government will cover a significant portion of the subsidy, with a cost-sharing ratio of 9:1 between central and local governments, varying by region[1] - The central government will bear 85% of the costs in the eastern region, 90% in the central region, and 95% in the western region[1] - The 2025 fiscal budget indicates a significant increase in health spending, with an additional 102.4 billion yuan allocated compared to 2024, creating room for the childcare subsidy[1] Group 3: Economic Impact - The subsidy represents approximately 0.1% of China's nominal GDP for 2024, which is relatively low compared to OECD countries where similar subsidies can reach 1.5-2.5% of GDP[1] - The expected consumption increase from the subsidy is around 78 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.16% of total retail sales[1] - The program is expected to have a gradual impact on birth rates, while providing a more immediate boost to consumer spending[1] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The childcare subsidy signals a significant shift towards more substantial birth support policies, with potential for future increases in subsidy amounts[1] - There is a possibility of developing a comprehensive policy framework that includes economic support for families, housing, and education to enhance long-term birth rates[1] - The government is also focusing on improving early childhood education and care services, as indicated by recent policy discussions[1]

Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) was significantly positive, with a peak increase of 25.26% for Hengli Aluminum (恒立铝具) on July 28, 2025[8] - The average daily change for A-shares (A股) was lower, indicating a divergence in market performance between the two exchanges[7] Trading Volume and Turnover - The total trading volume on the North Exchange reached 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of July 28, 2025[6] - The trading activity reflects a robust engagement in the North Exchange compared to historical data[5] Sector Analysis - The top-performing sectors included machinery and automotive, with notable stocks like Hengli Aluminum and Mingyang Technology showing substantial gains[8] - Conversely, the technology sector faced declines, with stocks like Tianrun Technology dropping by 14.90%[9] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the North Exchange companies varied significantly, with some sectors like machinery showing higher valuations compared to others like basic chemicals[13] - The overall market valuation trends indicate a potential overvaluation in certain sectors, raising concerns about sustainability[10] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights risks including lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, and increased market competition, which could impact future performance[14] - Market volatility remains a concern, necessitating cautious investment strategies moving forward[14]

网：lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 宏观研究报告 育儿补贴快评："投资于人"具像化 事件:7月28日,中办、国办印发《育儿补贴制度实施方案》,从2025年1月 1 日起,对 3 周岁以下婴幼儿每年发放 3600元补贴。 2025 年 7 月 29 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎: 010-8092-7780 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 一、育儿补贴正式公布,财政支持千亿规模。育儿补贴成为国家制度,是"投 o 资于人"政策方向的坚实一步。根据方案公布的补贴标准,育儿补贴按年发放, 现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年 3600 元。其中对 2025 年 1 月 1 日之前出生、不 满 3 周岁的婴幼儿(2022~2024 年出生),按应补贴月数折算计发补贴。2022- 2024 年我国出生人口数量分别为 956、902、954 万人 ...