| | | | 124.34 | 119.29 | 124.80 | 131.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -7.98 | -4.06 | 4.62 | 5.22 | | 17.51 | 18.43 | 19.56 | 21.04 | | -0.84 | 5.24 | 6.16 | 7.54 | | 29.40 | 28.95 | 29.43 | 30.87 | | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.92 | | 11.27 | 10.71 | 10.09 | 9.38 | | 市场数据 | 2025-03-28 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 600720.SH | | A 股收盘价(元) | 8.58 | | 上证指数 | 3,373.75 | | 总股本(万股) | 229,460 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 77,616 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 66.59 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 | 利润表(亿元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Datang Power Generation [2] Core Insights - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a notable increase in net profit and cash flow, primarily due to a decrease in coal prices [5][6] - The company has substantial growth potential in installed capacity, with over 30% of its capacity under construction or approved, supporting long-term growth [5][6] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2024 to 2027 are 123,473.63 million, 120,598.42 million, 124,721.10 million, and 127,416.75 million respectively, with a revenue growth rate of 0.86% in 2024, declining to -2.33% in 2025, and then recovering to 3.42% and 2.16% in 2026 and 2027 [5][7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same period are 4,506.18 million, 5,184.03 million, 5,576.03 million, and 6,212.03 million, with a remarkable profit growth of 229.70% in 2024 [5][7] - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is projected to improve from 14.87% in 2024 to 15.94% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 3.65% to 4.88% over the same period [5][7] - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 11.70 in 2024 to 8.49 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation as earnings grow [5][7] Segment Performance - **Coal and Hydropower Segments**: The coal segment's profit is expected to increase significantly due to lower coal prices, while the hydropower segment also shows growth, contributing to overall profitability [5][6] - **Installed Capacity**: As of the end of 2024, the company has an operational capacity of 79.11 GW, with 24.74 GW under construction or approved, indicating strong future growth potential [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company, Kailaiying, reported a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 25.82%. However, excluding the impact of large orders, revenue grew by 7.40% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 42% [3]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the high base from large orders delivered in 2023. The revenue from large pharmaceutical companies was 2.691 billion yuan, growing by 4.78% year-on-year after excluding large orders, while revenue from small and medium pharmaceutical companies was 3.114 billion yuan, growing by 9.78% [3]. - The company's small molecule CDMO business achieved a revenue of 4.571 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.85% after excluding large orders, and a gross margin of 47.95% [3]. - Emerging businesses generated a revenue of 1.226 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.25% and a gross margin of 21.67%, indicating room for improvement [3]. - The company has a total order backlog of 1.052 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of over 20%, and significant growth in orders from European and American markets [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 949 million yuan, a decrease of 58.17% year-on-year. The forecast for 2025 estimates a net profit of 1.141 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.23% [4][6]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 6.572 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.21% [4][6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 43.03% in 2025 and 44.51% by 2027 [4][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 3.16 yuan in 2025, increasing to 4.46 yuan by 2027 [4][6].

北交所周报 交易活跃度回落,专精特新市场布局加速 2025 年 03 月 29 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ☎：010-8092-7663 @: fanxiangxiang _yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 网: zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2024 中期策略_新质生产力赋能 北证,关注国央企投资价值 2. 【银河北交所】深化国企改革,迈向高质量发展- 北交所国央企专题报告 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度策略_并购重组助高质 发展,抓两新两重投资机遇 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-03-28 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 北证 50 指数周涨跌幅为 0.07%。本周,北证 50 涨跌幅为 0.07%。北交所 ● 265 家上市公司中,有 122 家公司周涨幅为正,新股开发科技(+150.36%) 涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, there are three main investment lines with high allocation value in the Hong Kong stock market: the consumer sector may see improved performance and rising stock prices due to domestic policies; the technology sector is expected to rise continuously with policy support and industry trends; the high - dividend strategy in the Hong Kong stock market, especially high - dividend targets of central state - owned enterprises, is attractive and can provide stable returns [2]. - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue rising as earnings recover steadily, but the impact of US trade policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm should be noted [49]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 This Week's Important Events 3.1.1 Domestic Aspect - From January to February 2025, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 2.8% year - on - year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the whole year of 2024. Their profits decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points compared to the whole year of 2024. The manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries showed obvious improvements [2][4]. 3.1.2 Overseas Aspect - On March 24, Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil and gas, effective April 2. On March 26, he said he would impose a 25% tariff on all non - US - made cars, and tariffs on the pharmaceutical and timber industries. The US 2 - month core PCE price index rose more than expected, with the year - on - year increase at 2.8% and the month - on - month increase at 0.4%, the highest since January 2024 [2][9]. 3.2 This Week's Review of the Hong Kong Stock Market 3.2.1 Index Gains and Losses - From March 24 to March 28, most global stock indices fell. The three major Hong Kong stock indices declined again, with the Hang Seng Index, Technology Index, and State - owned Enterprises Index falling 1.11%, 2.36%, and 0.82% respectively. Three Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, and nine declined. The healthcare, raw materials, and conglomerates sectors led the gains, while the information technology, industrial, and financial sectors led the losses [2][14][16]. 3.2.2 Capital Flows - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this week was HK$237.557 billion, a decrease of HK$49.847 billion from last week. The average daily short - selling amount was HK$29.347 billion, a decrease of HK$2.091 billion from last week. The average daily ratio of short - selling amount to trading volume was 12.48%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from last week. Southbound funds had a net inflow of HK$37.18 billion this week, an increase of HK$14.155 billion from last week [2][21]. 3.2.3 Valuation and Risk Premium - As of March 28, the PE and PB of the Hang Seng Index were 10.34 times and 1.1 times respectively. The PE increased by 0.95% and the PB decreased by 0.49% compared to last Friday. The Hang Seng Index's risk - premium rate relative to the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 5.4%, at the 14% quantile since 2010. The Hang Seng Index's risk - premium rate relative to the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 7.9%, at the 75% quantile since 2010. Industry valuations were highly differentiated [23][28][33]. 3.3 Investment Outlook for the Hong Kong Stock Market - In the long - term, there are three main investment lines: the consumer sector supported by policies, the technology sector with expected performance realization, and the high - dividend sector providing stable investment returns [49].

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.03.28) ■ 成交金额（合计/亿元) -换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-18 02-12 02-14 02-18 02-24 02-28 03-04 03-06 03-10 03-12 03-14 03-28 02-10 02-20 02-26 02-06 03-20 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 ■A股算数平均涨跌幅 ■ 北交所算数平均涨跌幅 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 北交所日报 □国银河证券|CGS 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.03.28) 可证券|CGS 北交所日报 | | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 所属行业 | 今日涨跌幅 | 市值 | 营业收入 | 归母净利润 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in April, with a focus on economic data and corporate earnings reports, which will influence investor sentiment and market direction [6][12] - The report highlights the importance of structural opportunities in sectors such as technology and consumer goods, suggesting a strategy that balances growth and defensive positions [6][12] - The report identifies ten key stocks for April, including companies like Guangxun Technology, Ningde Times, and Tencent Holdings, which are expected to benefit from strong earnings and market trends [4][11] Group 2 - Guangxun Technology is positioned to benefit from the growth in AI computing power and the high demand for optical modules, with a focus on domestic production capabilities [7][49] - Ningde Times maintains a strong market position with continuous growth expectations, highlighting its value as a key investment [8][12] - Tencent Holdings shows robust growth potential across its main business segments, with increasing commercialization of traffic entry points and a strategic focus on AI [8][15] Group 3 - Lexin Technology is experiencing high growth driven by innovation and ecosystem development, positioning it well for future expansion [9][12] - Yunlu Co. is recognized as a global leader in amorphous materials, with significant market growth expected in the coming years [9][36] - Dongpeng Beverage is set to benefit from expanding consumer demographics and product categories, particularly in functional beverages [9][12] Group 4 - Henghui Security is expanding its production capacity and exploring new material applications, which are expected to drive growth [10][20] - Gree Electric Appliances is adapting to market changes with a focus on channel reform and digital transformation, which is anticipated to enhance growth [26][30] - Dou Shen Education is leveraging AI technology in education, with a focus on product launches and market recovery following previous challenges [42][46] Group 5 - The amorphous alloy market is projected to grow significantly, with increasing demand for energy-efficient solutions in various industries [36][41] - The functional safety glove market is expected to recover, driven by economic growth and increased production intensity [20][21] - The home appliance market, particularly air conditioning, is forecasted to see steady growth due to favorable policies and market dynamics [26][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 25.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.65 billion yuan, up 3.49% year-on-year [3] - The gypsum board business faced short-term pressure, but the overall business remains resilient, with the gypsum board revenue slightly declining by 4.79% to 13.11 billion yuan [3] - The company is focusing on internal and external growth strategies, with significant expansion in its waterproof and paint businesses, achieving revenue growth of 19.32% and 327.99% respectively in 2024 [3] - The company reported a strong operating cash flow of 5.13 billion yuan, an increase of 8.45% year-on-year, and a high dividend payout ratio of 40.07% [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 14.30% in 2025, 11.58% in 2026, and 7.10% in 2027, with net profit expected to reach 4.48 billion yuan in 2025 [4][6] - The gross margin for the gypsum board and keel business was 38.51% and 18.98% respectively, showing slight improvements [3] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 35.14 billion yuan in 2024 to 47.69 billion yuan by 2027 [5] Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "One Body, Two Wings" strategy to enhance its core gypsum board business while expanding its waterproof and paint segments [3] - The international sales revenue reached 417 million yuan in 2024, marking an 87.59% increase, indicating successful international expansion efforts [3] - The company plans to invest in a new production line for gypsum fiberglass boards, which is expected to further strengthen its market position [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Supor (stock code: 002032) [2][56] Core Views - The company focuses on stability and high dividend payouts, with a dividend payout ratio of 99.74% in 2024 [5] - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 22.979 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.46% [2][56] - The company's return on equity (ROE) remains high, projected at 36.13% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [56] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 22.427 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.27% [2][56] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.979 billion yuan, 23.686 billion yuan, and 24.573 billion yuan respectively [2][56] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is forecasted at 2.244 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.97% [2][56] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.328 billion yuan, 2.398 billion yuan, and 2.490 billion yuan respectively [2][56] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The diluted EPS for 2024 is projected to be 2.80 yuan, with forecasts of 2.90 yuan, 2.99 yuan, and 3.11 yuan for the following years [2][56] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - The P/E ratio is expected to be 19.10x in 2025, decreasing to 17.86x by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [2][56] Business Segmentation - **Revenue by Segment**: - The electrical appliances segment generated 15.3 billion yuan in 2024, while the cookware segment contributed 6.836 billion yuan [6] - **Sales Performance**: - Domestic sales in 2024 are projected at 14.925 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.2% year-on-year [7] - Export sales are expected to reach 7.502 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant increase [7] Market Trends - The small home appliance market is experiencing weak demand, particularly in kitchen appliances, while cleaning and personal care appliances are performing better [5] - The company has improved its marketing efficiency on platforms like Douyin to boost sales [5] - The export market is recovering, with significant growth in orders from SEB, projected to reach 73.69 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.6% increase from 2024 [5][7]

Macro Insights - The report highlights that AI technology will drive China's economic transition from "large-scale advantages" to "global collaborative advantages" by 2035, leveraging its unique capabilities in knowledge reorganization and cross-domain collaboration [5][2] - AI is expected to contribute approximately 10% to GDP by 2035, with an average increase of 1.3% in total factor productivity (TFP) from 2025 to 2035, leading to an additional 14.8% increase in actual GDP [3][4] Company-Specific Insights China Guangke (003816) - The company reported a revenue of 868.04 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a net profit of 108.14 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase [18] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.95 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 44.36% [18] - The upcoming commissioning of the Huizhou Unit 1 is expected to support the company's performance in 2025 [22] China Merchants Bank (600036) - The bank's net profit for 2024 is projected to grow by 1.22% year-on-year, with a revenue decline of 0.48% [6] - The bank's annualized weighted average ROE is 14.49%, with a significant improvement in non-interest income [6][7] - The bank's dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 35.32%, leading the industry [11] Zhongyu Technology (871694) - The company focuses on fluid transmission hoses and plans to expand its market presence in the Middle East [25] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 59.93 million yuan, a decrease of 10.23%, primarily due to reduced orders from the US and Middle East markets [25] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings in oil and gas extraction and mineral development [27] Morning Glory Co., Ltd. (603899) - The company achieved a revenue of 24.23 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%, but net profit decreased by 8.58% [29] - The company is focusing on optimizing its traditional core business and expanding its online and overseas operations [31] - The retail segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by the expansion of its retail stores [33] Fosun Pharma (600196) - The company reported a revenue of 41.07 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.80%, while net profit increased by 16.08% [35] - The pharmaceutical segment is focusing on high-margin innovative products, contributing to the overall profit growth [36] - The company plans to enhance its international presence and continue its innovation-driven growth strategy [39]