-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.03.28) ■ 成交金额（合计/亿元) -换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-18 02-12 02-14 02-18 02-24 02-28 03-04 03-06 03-10 03-12 03-14 03-28 02-10 02-20 02-26 02-06 03-20 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 ■A股算数平均涨跌幅 ■ 北交所算数平均涨跌幅 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 北交所日报 □国银河证券|CGS 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.03.28) 可证券|CGS 北交所日报 | | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 所属行业 | 今日涨跌幅 | 市值 | 营业收入 | 归母净利润 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in April, with a focus on economic data and corporate earnings reports, which will influence investor sentiment and market direction [6][12] - The report highlights the importance of structural opportunities in sectors such as technology and consumer goods, suggesting a strategy that balances growth and defensive positions [6][12] - The report identifies ten key stocks for April, including companies like Guangxun Technology, Ningde Times, and Tencent Holdings, which are expected to benefit from strong earnings and market trends [4][11] Group 2 - Guangxun Technology is positioned to benefit from the growth in AI computing power and the high demand for optical modules, with a focus on domestic production capabilities [7][49] - Ningde Times maintains a strong market position with continuous growth expectations, highlighting its value as a key investment [8][12] - Tencent Holdings shows robust growth potential across its main business segments, with increasing commercialization of traffic entry points and a strategic focus on AI [8][15] Group 3 - Lexin Technology is experiencing high growth driven by innovation and ecosystem development, positioning it well for future expansion [9][12] - Yunlu Co. is recognized as a global leader in amorphous materials, with significant market growth expected in the coming years [9][36] - Dongpeng Beverage is set to benefit from expanding consumer demographics and product categories, particularly in functional beverages [9][12] Group 4 - Henghui Security is expanding its production capacity and exploring new material applications, which are expected to drive growth [10][20] - Gree Electric Appliances is adapting to market changes with a focus on channel reform and digital transformation, which is anticipated to enhance growth [26][30] - Dou Shen Education is leveraging AI technology in education, with a focus on product launches and market recovery following previous challenges [42][46] Group 5 - The amorphous alloy market is projected to grow significantly, with increasing demand for energy-efficient solutions in various industries [36][41] - The functional safety glove market is expected to recover, driven by economic growth and increased production intensity [20][21] - The home appliance market, particularly air conditioning, is forecasted to see steady growth due to favorable policies and market dynamics [26][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 25.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.65 billion yuan, up 3.49% year-on-year [3] - The gypsum board business faced short-term pressure, but the overall business remains resilient, with the gypsum board revenue slightly declining by 4.79% to 13.11 billion yuan [3] - The company is focusing on internal and external growth strategies, with significant expansion in its waterproof and paint businesses, achieving revenue growth of 19.32% and 327.99% respectively in 2024 [3] - The company reported a strong operating cash flow of 5.13 billion yuan, an increase of 8.45% year-on-year, and a high dividend payout ratio of 40.07% [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 14.30% in 2025, 11.58% in 2026, and 7.10% in 2027, with net profit expected to reach 4.48 billion yuan in 2025 [4][6] - The gross margin for the gypsum board and keel business was 38.51% and 18.98% respectively, showing slight improvements [3] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 35.14 billion yuan in 2024 to 47.69 billion yuan by 2027 [5] Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "One Body, Two Wings" strategy to enhance its core gypsum board business while expanding its waterproof and paint segments [3] - The international sales revenue reached 417 million yuan in 2024, marking an 87.59% increase, indicating successful international expansion efforts [3] - The company plans to invest in a new production line for gypsum fiberglass boards, which is expected to further strengthen its market position [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Supor (stock code: 002032) [2][56] Core Views - The company focuses on stability and high dividend payouts, with a dividend payout ratio of 99.74% in 2024 [5] - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 22.979 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.46% [2][56] - The company's return on equity (ROE) remains high, projected at 36.13% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [56] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 22.427 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.27% [2][56] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.979 billion yuan, 23.686 billion yuan, and 24.573 billion yuan respectively [2][56] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is forecasted at 2.244 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.97% [2][56] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.328 billion yuan, 2.398 billion yuan, and 2.490 billion yuan respectively [2][56] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The diluted EPS for 2024 is projected to be 2.80 yuan, with forecasts of 2.90 yuan, 2.99 yuan, and 3.11 yuan for the following years [2][56] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - The P/E ratio is expected to be 19.10x in 2025, decreasing to 17.86x by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [2][56] Business Segmentation - **Revenue by Segment**: - The electrical appliances segment generated 15.3 billion yuan in 2024, while the cookware segment contributed 6.836 billion yuan [6] - **Sales Performance**: - Domestic sales in 2024 are projected at 14.925 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.2% year-on-year [7] - Export sales are expected to reach 7.502 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant increase [7] Market Trends - The small home appliance market is experiencing weak demand, particularly in kitchen appliances, while cleaning and personal care appliances are performing better [5] - The company has improved its marketing efficiency on platforms like Douyin to boost sales [5] - The export market is recovering, with significant growth in orders from SEB, projected to reach 73.69 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.6% increase from 2024 [5][7]

Macro Insights - The report highlights that AI technology will drive China's economic transition from "large-scale advantages" to "global collaborative advantages" by 2035, leveraging its unique capabilities in knowledge reorganization and cross-domain collaboration [5][2] - AI is expected to contribute approximately 10% to GDP by 2035, with an average increase of 1.3% in total factor productivity (TFP) from 2025 to 2035, leading to an additional 14.8% increase in actual GDP [3][4] Company-Specific Insights China Guangke (003816) - The company reported a revenue of 868.04 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a net profit of 108.14 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase [18] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.95 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 44.36% [18] - The upcoming commissioning of the Huizhou Unit 1 is expected to support the company's performance in 2025 [22] China Merchants Bank (600036) - The bank's net profit for 2024 is projected to grow by 1.22% year-on-year, with a revenue decline of 0.48% [6] - The bank's annualized weighted average ROE is 14.49%, with a significant improvement in non-interest income [6][7] - The bank's dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 35.32%, leading the industry [11] Zhongyu Technology (871694) - The company focuses on fluid transmission hoses and plans to expand its market presence in the Middle East [25] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 59.93 million yuan, a decrease of 10.23%, primarily due to reduced orders from the US and Middle East markets [25] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings in oil and gas extraction and mineral development [27] Morning Glory Co., Ltd. (603899) - The company achieved a revenue of 24.23 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%, but net profit decreased by 8.58% [29] - The company is focusing on optimizing its traditional core business and expanding its online and overseas operations [31] - The retail segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by the expansion of its retail stores [33] Fosun Pharma (600196) - The company reported a revenue of 41.07 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.80%, while net profit increased by 16.08% [35] - The pharmaceutical segment is focusing on high-margin innovative products, contributing to the overall profit growth [36] - The company plans to enhance its international presence and continue its innovation-driven growth strategy [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yisheng Co., Ltd. (stock code: 002458.SZ) [1] Core Views - Yisheng Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in chicken and pig production capacity by 2025, despite facing challenges in 2024 due to low chicken prices [4] - The company reported a revenue of 3.136 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.76% year-on-year, with a net profit of 504 million yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year [4] - The company is projected to benefit from rising chick prices in Q4 2024, leading to a notable increase in revenue and profitability [4] - The company maintains a leading position in the poultry industry, with a focus on high-generation livestock breeding as its core competitive advantage [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue from chicken business was 2.697 billion yuan, accounting for 86% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 33.54% [4] - The company’s pig business revenue reached 224 million yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 320.39% year-on-year, contributing to 7.13% of total revenue [4] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 655 million yuan, 756 million yuan, and 880 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.79 yuan [5] Production Capacity and Market Position - The company is expected to enhance its breeding capacity for both chickens and pigs in 2025, with chicken breeding capacity projected to increase year-on-year [4] - The company has maintained its supply advantage in the breeding sector, with a historical high in parent stock and commodity chicken inventory expected in 2025 [4] - The company has successfully resumed imports of breeding stock from France, which had been disrupted due to avian influenza outbreaks [4] Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts for 2024-2027 indicate a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins, with a projected revenue growth rate of 13.87% in 2025 [5] - The company’s operating profit is expected to increase significantly, with a projected operating profit of 655 million yuan in 2025 [6] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 7.800 billion yuan by 2027, with a debt-to-asset ratio decreasing to 17.48% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The strategic synergy effect with the controlling shareholder, Yunsen Electronics, is expected to gradually manifest, enhancing the company's competitiveness in smart cockpit products. The change in controlling shareholder is anticipated to strengthen collaboration and strategic alignment [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.902 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 155.26 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.67% [5]. - The decline in sales from luxury brand clients has impacted revenue growth, but the increase in shipments from self-owned brand clients has mitigated this effect, resulting in a slight revenue increase for the year [5]. - The company has seen a decrease in customer concentration, with the top five clients contributing 68.34% of revenue, down 5.32 percentage points year-on-year, which is expected to reduce the impact of single-client sales fluctuations on overall revenue [5]. - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with expenses rising by 26.97% to 429 million yuan in 2024, indicating a focus on new product development, particularly in the low-altitude economy sector [5]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 24.17%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.17 percentage points, indicating stable profitability despite market pressures [5]. - The company forecasts revenue growth to 6.512 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 179.73 million yuan, representing a profit growth rate of 15.76% [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.18 yuan in 2024 to 1.36 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 30.68 and 26.50, respectively [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the lung cancer targeted drug industry [3]. Core Insights - The lung cancer targeted drug industry is experiencing significant advancements due to individual precision treatment, with a continuous emergence of new drugs in China. The treatment landscape is evolving from traditional chemotherapy to targeted therapies and immunotherapies, enhancing patient survival rates and quality of life [5][17]. - The report emphasizes the establishment of a multi-layered treatment system in China, covering targeted therapy, immunotherapy, and anti-angiogenic therapy, with a focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and innovative technologies [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Individual Precision Treatment in Lung Cancer - Lung cancer has the highest incidence and mortality rates among malignant tumors globally, with 2.5 million new cases and 1.8 million deaths reported in 2022 [9]. - Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) accounts for approximately 85% of lung cancer cases, with various subtypes including adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and large cell carcinoma [10][12]. - The trend towards individualized precision treatment is evident, with significant advancements in targeted and immunotherapy options available for patients [14][16]. 2. Establishing a Precision Treatment System for NSCLC - Targeted therapies have initiated a new era in NSCLC treatment, significantly improving progression-free survival (PFS) rates compared to traditional chemotherapy [21][22]. - Immunotherapy has become a standard treatment option for advanced NSCLC, particularly for patients without driver mutations, and is expanding into perioperative settings [17][21]. - New technologies such as bispecific antibodies (bsAbs) and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) are being explored to address treatment bottlenecks in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) [5][17]. 3. Breakthroughs in SCLC Treatment - SCLC presents significant unmet clinical needs, with 70% of cases diagnosed at an extensive stage. Recent advancements in bsAbs and ADCs show promise in improving treatment outcomes [5][17]. - The first DLL3/CD3 TCE has received FDA accelerated approval for second/third-line treatment, with ongoing studies aiming to establish its efficacy in first-line settings [5][17]. 4. Company Profiles and Financial Projections - The report highlights key companies in the industry, including Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and others, providing profit forecasts and valuation metrics for 2024-2026 [6]. - Notable financial projections include Innovent Biologics with a projected net profit of 0.53 billion yuan in 2025, while BeiGene is expected to reach 4.49 billion yuan in the same year [6].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that AI will drive China's economic transition from "large country scale advantage" to "global collaborative advantage" by 2035, leveraging its unique capabilities in knowledge reorganization and system optimization [5][4][3] - The current economic challenges include weakened demand-side momentum and supply-side efficiency bottlenecks, with fixed asset investment growth slowing and consumption upgrade processes remaining incomplete [2][3] Group 2: China Guangke (003816) - In 2024, China Guangke achieved revenue of 868.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit of 108.14 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase [18][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.95 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 44.36% [18] - The upcoming commissioning of the Huizhou Unit 1 is expected to support the company's performance in 2025 [22][21] Group 3:招商银行 (600036) - In 2024, the bank's revenue decreased by 0.48% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 1.22%, indicating an improvement compared to previous quarters [11][7] - The bank's net interest margin was 1.98%, with a decrease in interest income but an increase in non-interest income driven by wealth management and other services [7][8] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95% [9] Group 4: 中裕科技 (871694) - 中裕科技 reported a revenue of 59.93 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 10.23%, primarily due to reduced orders from the US and Middle East markets [25] - The company maintains a strong market position in fluid transmission hoses, with plans to expand into new product areas and applications [27][26] Group 5: 晨光股份 (603899) - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 242.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%, while net profit decreased by 8.58% [29][30] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and expanding its online and overseas business [31][30] Group 6: 复星医药 (600196) - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 410.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.80%, but net profit increased by 16.08% [35][36] - The company is focusing on innovation in pharmaceuticals and high-value medical devices, with significant growth in high-margin products [36][38]

Economic Growth and Influence - The share of emerging markets and developing countries in global GDP increased from 21.02% in 2000 to 41.23% in 2024, projected to reach 43.71% by 2029[25] - BRICS countries' GDP has surpassed that of the G7, becoming a significant pillar of the global economy[25] - ASEAN countries attracted 17% of global foreign direct investment in 2023, with inflows reaching $230 billion, a 104.33% increase since 2014[34] Global South's Role in Governance - The Global South is transitioning from passive participants to active drivers in global governance, advocating for a multipolar world[5] - The 2023 Munich Security Conference highlighted the Global South's increasing visibility, mentioning it 55 times in its report[18] - The G20 summit in 2023 included the African Union as a member, showcasing the Global South's growing influence in international forums[44] Financial System Transformation - The IMF's share structure adjustments have allocated 6% of its shares to emerging economies, enhancing their governance voice[47] - The inclusion of the Chinese yuan in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket marked a significant elevation of the Global South's status in the global financial system[49] - The Global South is exploring alternative payment systems to reduce reliance on the US dollar, reflecting a shift in international monetary dynamics[5]