证券|CGS 行业点评报告 · 机械设备行业 分析师承诺及简介 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 23-01 23-03 23-05 23-07 23-09 23-11 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 工程机械指数 沪深300 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ 本人承诺以勤勉的执业态度,独立、客观地出具本报告,本报告清晰准确地反映本人的研究观点。本人薪酬的任何部分过去不 曾与、现在不与、未来也将不会与本报告的具体推荐或观点直接或间接相关。 鲁佩, 机械首席分析师 伦敦政治经济学院经济学硕士,证券从业 10 年,2021 年加入中国银河证券研究院,曾获新财富最 佳分析师、IAMAC 最受欢迎卖方分析师、万得金牌分析师、中证报最佳分析师、Choice 最佳分析师、金翼奖等。 免责声明 本报告由中国银河证券股价有限公司（以下简称银河证券）向其客户提供。银河证券无需因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。 若您并非银河证券客户中的专业投资者,为保证服务质量、控 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a recommendation for investment based on its growth potential and profitability improvements [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a key player in the thermal power sector in Hebei, with a significant market share and a robust growth trajectory in revenue and profit margins [6][8]. - The company has shown a strong recovery in profitability due to declining coal prices and an increase in installed capacity, with expectations for continued growth in net profit over the next few years [6][19]. - The company is actively transitioning towards renewable energy, with substantial investments in solar power and other green initiatives, aiming to enhance its low-carbon footprint [46][52]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 23.52 billion yuan in 2024 to 23.50 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.22% from 2020 to 2024 [2][15]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise significantly, reaching 1.33 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.58 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 149.62% and 8.41% respectively [2][6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 15.35% in 2024 to 24.45% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2][19]. Business Operations Summary - The company operates primarily in thermal power generation, with a dominant market share of approximately 25% in Hebei province, and plans to increase its installed capacity significantly by 2026 [6][11]. - The company has a strong focus on coal-fired power generation, which constitutes over 90% of its revenue, while also expanding its renewable energy portfolio [6][13]. - The company has several ongoing projects, with a total of 16.02 GW of equity-installed capacity expected by 2026, marking a 32% increase from current levels [41][46]. Future Outlook Summary - The company anticipates a continued upward trend in profitability, driven by lower coal prices and increased efficiency in power generation [6][41]. - The transition to renewable energy is expected to accelerate, with significant investments in solar and storage technologies, positioning the company favorably in the evolving energy landscape [46][52]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 13.26 billion yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6x, indicating attractive valuation metrics for potential investors [2][6].

Policy Dynamics - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized a shift from rapid urbanization to high-quality, inclusive development, focusing on five transformations and five areas of increased attention[22] - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting highlighted the deepening of the national unified market construction and high-quality development of the marine economy, with a focus on eliminating "involution" competition[8][9] Fiscal Policy - The adjustment of the long-cycle assessment mechanism for state-owned insurance companies aims to enhance their role as stabilizers in the market, with total commercial insurance fund utilization reaching approximately CNY 34.9 trillion by March 2025[44][45] - The management of special bond project revenues will be strengthened to improve the efficiency of fund usage and ensure sustainable fiscal operations[46] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with June 2025 financial data showing M1 growth at 4.6% and M2 at 8.3%, indicating a recovery in liquidity and credit support for the economy[54][55] - New social financing in June 2025 reached CNY 4.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9%, supported mainly by government bonds and loans[54] Regional Policy - The experience from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone will be further promoted to other regions, with 77 tasks outlined for enhancing trade and investment environments[59] - The Yangtze River Delta region is collaborating to build a national unified market pilot area, focusing on optimizing the business environment and maintaining fair competition[63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, with policy focus, the "technology board" of the bond market has accelerated its progress. On July 17, the first batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs were collectively listed. The Sci - tech Bond ETFs have investment value due to factors such as high - quality index components, better performance in bull and bear markets, spread compression potential, and suitability for certain types of investors [1][8][9]. - The Sci - tech Bond ETFs have differences from other mainstream ETFs in terms of sample range, sample rating, and sample remaining term, and the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index has the characteristics of high return, low volatility, and low drawdown [4]. - The GF Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bond ETF has features such as low credit risk, stable coupon income, and suitability for both stable - allocation investors and stock - bond portfolio rotation strategies [5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 How to Evaluate the Investment Value of Sci - tech Bond ETFs? 3.1.1 Index Component Structure - Among the 10 Sci - tech Bond ETF products, 6 track the China Securities AAA Sci - tech Bond Index, 3 track the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index, and 1 tracks the Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Bond Index. The Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index has better sample subject qualifications, a relatively larger sample size, and uses physical redemption [11]. - The industry distributions of the China Securities AAA Sci - tech Bond Index, Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index, and Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Bond Index are similar and highly concentrated. The top four industries of the first two are industry, public utilities, energy, and materials, accounting for 90% of the total scale [13]. 3.1.2 Policy Attributes: Better Returns in Bull Markets and More Resilience in Bear Markets - Since 2025, in bear markets, the yield of sci - tech bonds has increased 3BP less than that of medium - term notes and short - term financing bills; in bull markets, it has decreased 6BP more. The policy attributes of sci - tech bonds provide strong support for their performance in bull - bear cycles [2][18]. 3.1.3 Allocation Demand: Room for Spread Compression - Currently, the 10 - year Treasury yield has been fluctuating narrowly in the range of 1.63% - 1.73% for over 2 months. The 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - rated sci - tech bonds still have an excess spread of 29BP and 5BP compared to medium - term notes of the same term and rating, and their yield levels are still attractive [2][22]. 3.1.4 High Correlation between Sci - tech Bond Index and Dividend Index: Suitable for Conservative Allocation - Oriented Investors - The Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index has a strong positive correlation with the Shanghai Dividend Index, with a correlation coefficient of 0.56. Sci - tech Bond ETFs are more suitable for conservative allocation - oriented investors and those who prefer stable high - coupon income [3][25]. 3.2 Comparison between Sci - tech Bond ETFs and Other ETFs 3.2.1 Comparison of Indexes Tracked by Mainstream ETFs - Sci - tech Bond ETFs, as a new listing category, differ from other mainstream ETFs in sample range, sample rating, and sample remaining term. For example, the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year Policy Financial Bond Index and the Shanghai 10 - year Treasury Bond (Net) Index have no restrictions on sample ratings, while the Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index and the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index require high - credit - rated bonds [30][31]. 3.2.2 The Index Tracked by Sci - tech Bond ETFs Has High Return, Low Volatility, and Low Drawdown - The Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index has the highest annualized return (5.41%), relatively low annualized volatility (1.02%), and relatively low maximum drawdown (- 1.42%) among the four indexes [38][39]. 3.3 Introduction to Sci - tech Bond ETF Products 3.3.1 Product Information of GF Sci - tech Bond ETF - The GF Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bond ETF (fund code: 511120.SH) is a contract - type open - ended index fund tracking the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index. As of July 17, 2025, its liquid scale is 5.172 billion yuan [5][43]. 3.3.2 Trading Mechanism: On - exchange Trading with "T + 0" Real - time Trading for Convenient Operation - The ETF supports on - exchange continuous trading, has no subscription and redemption limits, and allows "T + 0" real - time trading. It also has a cash dividend mechanism, providing flexibility and predictable cash flow for investors [46][47]. 3.3.3 The Index Tracked by the ETF Has Medium - to - Short Duration, High Credit Rating, High Industry Concentration, and Many Leading Enterprises - The Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index has a medium - to - short duration, with bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years accounting for 80% of the total scale and a weighted average duration of 4.40 years. The component bonds are mainly of high - credit rating, and the top four industries account for over 90% of the total scale [48][50][51]. 3.3.4 Good Liquidity and Low Correlation with Stocks Make It Suitable for Stock - Bond Rotation Strategies - The ETF is suitable for stable - allocation investors and stock - bond portfolio rotation strategies due to its low credit risk, stable coupon income, anti - drawdown ability, low correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index, and good secondary - market liquidity [5][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, driven by policy focus, the "science - technology board" of the bond market has accelerated its progress. On July 17, the first batch of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs were listed collectively. These ETFs have investment value due to factors such as high - quality index components, better performance in bull and bear markets, potential for spread compression, and suitability for certain types of investors [1][8][9]. - Science - Innovation Bond ETFs have differences from other mainstream ETFs in terms of sample scope, sample rating, and sample remaining maturity. The tracking index of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs has the characteristics of high return, low volatility, and low drawdown [4][30]. - The Guangfa Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA Science - Innovation Corporate Bond ETF has features such as low credit risk, stable coupon income, and suitability for both conservative allocation investors and stock - bond rotation strategies [5][55]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Evaluate the Investment Value of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs? 3.1.1 Index Component Structure - Among the 10 Science - Innovation Bond ETF products, 6 track the CSI AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, 3 track the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, and 1 tracks the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index. The Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has advantages such as better sample subject quality, relatively larger sample size, and physical redemption [11]. - The industry distributions of the CSI AAA, Shanghai AAA, and Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Indexes are similar with high concentration. The top four industries of the first two are industry, public utilities, energy, and materials, accounting for 90% of the total scale; for the Shenzhen AAA index, they are industry, materials, public utilities, and information technology, accounting for 85% of the total scale [13]. 3.1.2 Policy Attributes: Better Returns in Bull Markets and More Resilience in Bear Markets - Since 2025, Science - Innovation Bonds have shown more resilience in bear markets (yield up 3BP less than medium - term notes and short - term commercial paper) and better return elasticity in bull markets (yield down 6BP more than medium - term notes and short - term commercial paper). Their policy attributes support their performance in bull - bear cycles [2][18]. 3.1.3 Allocation Demand: Room for Spread Compression - Currently, the 10 - year Treasury yield has been fluctuating in the range of 1.63% - 1.73% for over two months. The 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - rated Science - Innovation Bonds still have an excess spread of 29BP and 5BP respectively compared with medium - term notes of the same term and rating, indicating attractive yield levels [2][22]. 3.1.4 High Correlation between Science - Innovation Bond Index and Dividend Index, Suitable for Conservative Allocation Investors - The Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has a strong positive correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.56) with the Shanghai Dividend Index, and a low correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.16) with the Shanghai Composite Index. Science - Innovation Bond ETFs are suitable for conservative allocation investors and those who prefer stable high - coupon income [25][28]. 3.2 Comparison between Science - Innovation Bond ETFs and Other ETFs 3.2.1 Comparison of Indexes Tracked by Mainstream ETFs - Science - Innovation Bond ETFs, as a new category, differ from other mainstream bond ETFs (such as Policy - Financial Bond ETFs, Treasury Bond ETFs, and Credit Bond ETFs) in sample scope, sample rating, and sample remaining maturity. For example, the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index requires high - credit - rated bonds and has no restriction on the remaining maturity [30][31]. 3.2.2 The Index Tracked by Science - Innovation Bond ETFs has High Return, Low Volatility, and Low Drawdown - From 2023 to July 2025, the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index had the highest annualized return (5.41%) among the four compared indexes, relatively low annualized volatility (1.02%), and relatively low maximum drawdown (- 1.42%) [38][39]. 3.3 Introduction to Science - Innovation Bond ETF Products 3.3.1 Product Information of Guangfa Science - Innovation Bond ETF - The Guangfa Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA Science - Innovation Corporate Bond ETF (fund code: 511120.SH) is a contract - type open - ended index fund tracking the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index. As of July 17, 2025, its floating scale was 5.172 billion yuan [5][43]. 3.3.2 Trading Mechanism: On - exchange Trading with "T + 0" Real - time Trading for Convenient Operation - The ETF supports on - exchange continuous trading without subscription and redemption limits and "T + 0" real - time trading, which improves capital turnover efficiency and provides flexible trading space. The cash - dividend mechanism provides investors with a predictable cash source [47]. 3.3.3 The Index Tracked by the ETF has Medium - to - Short Duration, High Credit Rating, High Industry Concentration, and Many Leading Enterprises - The Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has a medium - to - short duration (bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years account for 80% of the total scale, and the weighted average duration is 4.40 years), high - credit - rated components (bonds with an implied rating above AAA - account for nearly 70% of the total scale), and high industry concentration with leading enterprises in the top four industries accounting for over 90% of the total scale [48][50][51]. 3.3.4 Good Liquidity and Low Correlation with Stocks Make it Suitable for Stock - Bond Rotation Strategies - The Guangfa Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA Science - Innovation Corporate Bond ETF is suitable for conservative allocation investors. Its low correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index and good secondary - market liquidity support stock - bond rotation strategies, enabling risk control during stock market downturns and efficient asset switching [55].

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for the industry, indicating a "Neutral" stance, which suggests a relative performance range of -5% to 10% compared to the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the performance of the engineering machinery index, which has shown fluctuations over the specified periods, with notable changes observed from January 2023 to March 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Performance**: The engineering machinery index has experienced a significant decline of 25% from its peak, reflecting broader market trends and specific challenges within the sector [2]. - **Analyst Background**: The report is authored by a seasoned analyst with 10 years of experience in the securities industry, highlighting a strong academic background and recognition in the field [4]. - **Research Commitment**: The report asserts a commitment to independent and objective analysis, ensuring that the insights provided are based on diligent research practices [4].

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a slowdown in clothing sales growth in June, with retail sales totaling 12.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a month-on-month decrease of 2.1 percentage points [4][7] - The overall retail sales for the first half of the year reached 74.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, indicating a steady recovery [4][15] - The report notes that the slowdown in June was primarily due to the early start of the 618 shopping festival in May, which affected consumer demand [4][7] - Domestic sports apparel leaders reported a decline in Q2 revenue growth compared to Q1, with brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning showing low single-digit growth [8] - The outdoor consumption segment continues to show high growth, with Anta's other brands experiencing a revenue growth of 50%-55% in Q2 [8] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Views - The report discusses the impact of the 618 shopping festival on June sales and the overall retail performance in the textile and apparel sector [4][7] 2. Key Industry Data Review (a) Stock Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.69%, while the textile and apparel sector saw a modest increase of 0.24% [10] (b) Terminal Retail Performance - Retail sales for clothing and textiles in June totaled 12.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [15] (c) Upstream Textile Exports - Textile yarn, fabric, and related products exported amounted to 12.048 billion USD in June, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [18] (d) Upstream Raw Materials - Cotton prices have risen, with the Chinese cotton price index at 15,508 yuan per ton, an increase of 242 yuan from the previous week [27][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality stocks with expected stable growth, including brands like Hailan Home and Bosideng in the apparel sector, and Anta Sports and Li Ning in the sportswear segment [9] 4. Recent Company Announcements - Companies like Meibang Apparel and Ru Yi Group are expected to report significant declines in net profits for the first half of 2025, highlighting challenges in the industry [49][50][53] 5. Industry News - The report mentions the launch of a new ion liquid method for producing regenerated cellulose fibers, marking a significant advancement in textile manufacturing [54]

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 23-01 23-03 23-05 23-07 23-09 23-11 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 工程机械指数 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫ 本报告可能附带其它网站的地址或超级链接，对于可能涉及的银河证券网站以外的地址或超级链接，银河证券不对其内容负 责。链接网站的内容不构成本报告的任何部分,客户需自行承担浏览这些网站的费用或风险。 银河证券在法律允许的情况下可参与、投资或持有本报告涉及的证券或进行证券交易,或向本报告涉及的公司提供或争取提供 包括投资银行业务在内的服务或业务支持。银河证券可能与本报告涉及的公司之间存在业务关系,并无需事先或在获得业务关系后 通知客户。 银河证券已具备中国证监会批复的证券投资咨询业务资格。除非另有说明,所有本报告的版权属于银河证券。未经银河证券书 面授权许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式转发、转载、翻版或传播本报告。特提醒公众投资者慎重使用未经授权刊载或者转发 的 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, 建投能源 (000600.SZ) [4] Core Views - The company has a solid foundation in thermal power generation, with significant potential for profit improvement due to declining coal prices and ongoing capacity expansion [6][41] - The company is actively transitioning towards renewable energy, with substantial growth in solar power capacity and ongoing projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions [46][52] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 23.52 billion yuan in 2024 to 23.50 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.22% from 2020 to 2024 [2][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly, reaching 1.33 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.46 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 149.62% and 10.14% respectively [2][6] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve from 15.35% in 2024 to 24.45% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [2][21] Business Overview - The company is a key player in the thermal power sector in Hebei, holding a 25% market share in installed capacity [6][8] - The revenue structure is heavily reliant on thermal power, which accounts for over 90% of total revenue [13][15] - The company has a total installed thermal power capacity of 11.77 GW, with plans to increase this to 16.02 GW by 2026 through ongoing projects [6][41] Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from a significant increase in installed capacity, with ongoing projects projected to add 3.90 GW of thermal power capacity by 2026 [41][46] - The renewable energy segment is also expanding, with a current solar capacity of 457,100 kW and additional projects in the pipeline [46][52] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 1.33 billion yuan, 1.46 billion yuan, and 1.58 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.6x, 9.6x, and 8.9x [6][27]

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the shift towards high-quality, connotative urban development, with a focus on policies aimed at reducing "involution" in various sectors [2][5] - The launch of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to significantly boost cement demand in Tibet and surrounding areas, benefiting regional cement companies [11][12][15] - The report highlights the importance of technology innovation and self-discipline in the construction industry, as 33 construction companies advocate for a transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [5][11] Policy Dynamics - The Central Urban Work Conference marks a strategic shift in urban development from expansion to high-quality, connotative growth, emphasizing human-centered approaches and efficient resource use [3] - The adjustment of long-term assessment mechanisms for state-owned insurance companies aims to enhance the stability of insurance funds as long-term capital [4] - The promotion of Shanghai's free trade zone experiences is set to enhance the business environment and foster fair competition across regions [4] Industry Developments - The embodied intelligence sector is witnessing active product iterations, with a focus on specific application scenarios such as industrial logistics and special environments [7][8] - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is projected to require over 40 million cubic meters of concrete, translating to approximately 16 million tons of cement, significantly impacting local supply chains [12][13] - The cement industry is undergoing a "de-involution" phase, with collaborative production strategies expected to stabilize supply and enhance pricing power [14] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in state-owned enterprises responsible for the design and construction of hydropower projects, as well as regional cement and explosives companies that stand to benefit from increased demand [21][19] - The focus on high-quality development in urban planning and construction is expected to create long-term growth opportunities for companies that align with these strategic shifts [3][5]