鸿日达（301285.SZ） 研发加码全年利润承压，新业务蓄力构筑业绩修复动能 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 721 | 830 | 1,230 | 1,652 | 2,039 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 21.3 | 15.2 | 48.1 | 34.3 | 23.4 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 31 | -8 | 43 | 145 | 182 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -37.0 | -124.4 | 670.4 | 236.4 | 25.3 | | ROE（%） | 2.7 | -0.7 | 4.1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.15 | -0.04 | 0.21 | 0.70 | 0.88 | | P/E（倍） | 192.7 | -789.0 | 138.3 | 41.1 | 32.8 | | P/B（倍） | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is experiencing steady revenue recovery, with a projected revenue of 124.25 billion yuan in 2023, slightly increasing to 150.12 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% from 2025 to 2027 [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 9.33 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.43 billion yuan in 2024, before gradually increasing to 9.46 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a focus on long-term growth despite short-term challenges [1]. - The company is undergoing a structural transformation, shifting from a primary focus on operator networks to a collaborative development model involving "network + computing power + terminals," with over 35% of revenue coming from the second curve business [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decrease by 2.4% in 2024, followed by a recovery with a growth rate of 7.0% in 2025 and maintaining similar growth rates through 2027 [1]. - The gross margin is under pressure during the transformation phase, with a reported gross margin of 34.27% in Q1 2025, down 7.75 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense competition in the computing power and terminal markets [2]. - The company anticipates that the computing power business will become a major growth driver, particularly with the launch of DeepSeek, which is expected to shift demand from training to inference, thus expanding the market size [2]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for the company is 8.58 billion yuan in 2025, 8.88 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.46 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.5, 16.9, and 15.9 respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in overseas revenue, with a projected 61.96% year-on-year increase in overseas sales to approximately 224.37 million yuan in 2024, primarily driven by the sales growth of albumin paclitaxel in the EU [2]. - The company is actively pursuing an "internationalization" strategy, enhancing its overseas marketing structure and focusing on key disease areas, which has established it as a model for the domestic pharmaceutical industry's expansion abroad [2]. - The company has a strong pipeline of innovative drugs, particularly in oncology, immunology, and degenerative diseases, with several projects showing promising preclinical results and progressing towards clinical trials [3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.407 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, and is expected to turn a profit with a net profit of 31 million yuan [1]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly over the next few years, reaching 2.701 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.5% from 2024 to 2027 [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -12.0% in 2023 to 14.1% by 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [1]. Market Position - The company has established a strong presence in over 40 emerging market countries, covering regions such as Central and South America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa [2]. - The company maintains leading market shares in several domestic products, including "Sai Ruojin" in the short-acting interferon market and "Lai Ting" in the infliximab market [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [5][16]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed significant growth, with revenue reaching 1.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.44%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 283 million yuan, up 11.82% year-on-year but down 1.43% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The new game "Wanjian Changsheng" has performed well, contributing to revenue and profit growth, and is expected to launch in additional regions, including Hong Kong, Macau, and Europe and the United States [2][3]. - The company is also focusing on upcoming game launches, such as "Zhangjian Chuanqi," which is set to officially launch in the first half of 2025, and the SLG game "Jiumu Zhiye," expected in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 4.185 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 19.0% year-on-year. However, revenue is expected to recover in 2025E to 4.409 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 19.3% [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A was 1.461 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 23.0% year-on-year. By 2025E, net profit is expected to rise to 1.134 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of 20.0% [1][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2023A was 27.8%, with a projected decline to 20.9% in 2024A, before stabilizing around 19.0% by 2027E [1][9]. Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 88.5% from 2023A to 2027E, indicating strong profitability [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A was 15.62 yuan, with projections of 15.74 yuan in 2025E and 19.92 yuan in 2027E, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [1][9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned in the media industry and has a total market capitalization of approximately 16.8 billion yuan as of April 28, 2025 [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new game launches in driving future growth, alongside the stabilization of existing game revenues [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price relative to the industry index over the next six months [5][23]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 26.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in its smart security and smart IoT businesses [2][3]. - The smart security business generated revenue of 1.588 billion yuan in 2024, up 10.1% year-on-year, while the smart IoT business saw a significant increase of 38.6%, contributing to 20.2% of total revenue [3]. - The company has a strong technological foundation in AI and low-power applications, with over 100 million self-developed AI chips shipped, enhancing its product offerings [4][5]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company expects total revenue of 2.020 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -14.7%. By 2024, revenue is expected to rise to 2.354 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 16.5% [1][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 205 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase to 256 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.2% [1][11]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected at 35.79%, slightly down from the previous year, while the net profit margin is expected to improve to 10.89% [2][11]. Business Segments - The smart security segment remains the largest, accounting for 67.5% of total revenue in 2024, benefiting from the company's expertise in ISP and AI technologies [3]. - The smart IoT segment is emerging as a new growth driver, with its revenue expected to continue rising due to the increasing share of new products like smart robots and industrial HMI [3][4]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic video security SoC chip market, leveraging its advanced low-power technology and ISP capabilities to expand into edge AI applications [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on expected growth in the PCB and semiconductor sectors driven by AI and electric vehicle demand [4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 954 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million yuan, a decrease of 10.38% [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 242 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.31% and a significant sequential increase of 2.63% [1][2]. - The company is focusing on high-end PCB products, with over 60% of sales coming from mid-to-high-end products in 2024, and is expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 829 million yuan in 2023 to 2,380 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [1][10]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 179 million yuan in 2023 to 470 million yuan in 2027, with a notable increase of 74.2% in 2025 [1][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.8% in 2023 to 15.5% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [1][10]. Market Trends and Strategic Focus - The report highlights the acceleration of high-end PCB trends and the company's strategic focus on high-end markets such as HDI boards and IC substrates, which are expected to drive future growth [3][9]. - The company is also benefiting from the domestic substitution trend in the semiconductor sector, with its IC substrate products achieving international standards [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][20]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a notable reduction in losses for 2024. The main business segments, including automotive displays and flexible AMOLED, are experiencing strong growth, contributing to the recovery of profitability despite challenges such as increased depreciation costs [2][10]. - The flexible AMOLED segment is expected to continue expanding, driven by rising demand and product upgrades, particularly in the smartphone market where it accounts for over 60% of display revenue [3][10]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural opportunities in the global display market, including the growth of high-specification display technologies and new applications in the electric vehicle sector [10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 33.494 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -669 million yuan, reflecting a 68.13% improvement compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The gross margin for 2024 is forecasted at 13.28%, an increase of 6.50 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is projected at -2.06%, up by 4.48 percentage points [2][10]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit, with estimates of 195 million yuan in 2025, 696 million yuan in 2026, and 976 million yuan in 2027, alongside corresponding EPS of 0.08 yuan, 0.28 yuan, and 0.40 yuan respectively [1][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][20]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth, particularly in the glass-based MiniLED backlight segment, which is expected to contribute to profitability [1][3]. - The financial outlook shows a projected increase in revenue from 18.14 billion CNY in 2023 to 40 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3% [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core capabilities and market share in traditional display business, with a notable increase in revenue from its glass processing segment [2]. - The company has successfully entered mass production of glass-based MiniLED backlight products, which are being adopted in various applications, including gaming monitors and TVs [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 22.21 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, while the net profit is expected to be -1.22 billion CNY, a significant decline from the previous year [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 17.15%, down 3.06 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin products [2]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability as new projects are launched and industry demand improves, with net profits projected to reach 0.35 billion CNY in 2025 and 1.60 billion CNY by 2027 [12]. Business Developments - The company’s subsidiary has achieved a production capacity of 1 million square meters for glass-based MiniLED substrates, which is now in commercial application [3]. - The company is also expanding its glass-based TGV multilayer circuit boards and optical devices, with new production capacity expected to enhance revenue streams [9][11]. - The company is actively engaging in employee stock ownership plans and share buybacks to boost market confidence and align management interests with long-term growth [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price relative to the industry index over the next six months [8][22]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the storage industry and an increase in enterprise-level storage demand, with revenue projected to grow significantly in the coming years [2][4]. - The embedded storage segment is anticipated to generate substantial revenue growth, with a forecasted increase of 90.5% year-on-year in 2024 [2]. - The company has successfully launched its self-developed UFS 4.1 controller chip, which is expected to enhance its position in the high-end smart terminal market [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.256 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 4.4% decrease year-on-year [9][10]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 10.35%, reflecting a decline compared to previous periods, primarily due to slow recovery in the consumer electronics market and inventory digestion issues [2][9]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was -151.81 million yuan for Q1 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year decline [12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 10.125 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6% through 2027, reaching approximately 30.125 billion yuan by 2027 [1][15]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 4.99 billion yuan in 2024, a 160.2% increase year-on-year [11]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a leading independent storage manufacturer in China, with significant growth potential driven by global trends such as AIGC and the "Digital China" initiative [4]. - The enterprise storage segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of over 200% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating strong demand in various sectors including internet and finance [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Beijing Junzheng, expecting a price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the industry index over the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company has turned a profit in Q1 2025, with a significant recovery in its non-net profit attributable to shareholders, driven by a rebound in the automotive and industrial sectors [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding into advanced DRAM processes and 3D DRAM products aimed at AI applications, indicating strong growth potential [4]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 7.03% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 31.84%, primarily due to weak market demand in the automotive and industrial sectors [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - 2023 revenue is projected at 4,531 million CNY, with a decline to 4,213 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 5,109 million CNY in 2025 [14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 537 million CNY in 2023 to 366 million CNY in 2024, before rising to 502 million CNY in 2025 [14]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 36.40%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.12 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 0.76 CNY in 2024, and then recovering to 1.04 CNY in 2025 [14]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 59.1 in 2023 to 42.4 by 2027, indicating a potential improvement in valuation as earnings recover [14]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - ROE is projected to decline from 4.4% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 5.4% by 2027 [14]. Product Segmentation - **Memory Chips**: - Revenue from memory chips is expected to be 25.89 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 61.47% of total revenue, despite a year-on-year decline of 11.06% [3]. - Q1 2025 revenue for memory chips was 6.63 billion CNY, reflecting a 9.90% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. - **Computing Chips**: - Revenue from computing chips is projected at 10.90 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight year-on-year decline of 1.65% [3]. - Q1 2025 revenue for computing chips was 2.70 billion CNY, showing a decrease of 2.65% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - **Analog and Connectivity Chips**: - Revenue from analog and connectivity chips is expected to grow by 15.31% year-on-year to 4.72 billion CNY in 2024 [3].