Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic industry, which is expected to drive price increases and improve profitability across the supply chain [16][36] - The energy storage sector is experiencing sustained demand growth, with significant project developments and favorable policy support [39][44] - The lithium battery segment shows stable demand, with advancements in solid-state technology and materials innovation [39][44] - The wind power sector is benefiting from increased offshore project activity and recovery in profitability [39][44] - The power equipment sector is seeing positive developments from high-voltage projects and international demand [39][44] - New directions in AI and robotics are highlighted as emerging investment opportunities, particularly in the context of increased capital expenditure from major manufacturers [39][44] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic - The photovoltaic industry is witnessing a price increase in key materials, with polysilicon prices rising to 49-55 CNY/kg and silicon wafer prices increasing by approximately 0.1 CNY per piece [22][25] - The government is pushing for the elimination of low-price competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, with mergers and acquisitions in the polysilicon sector expected to progress in Q3 [16][36] - Recommended stocks include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar [16][36] Energy Storage - In H1 2025, major energy storage projects across 21 regions reached a total capacity of 124 GWh, with significant contributions from Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Guangdong [41][42] - The report highlights the increasing stability of the energy storage market, with a positive outlook for domestic demand and pricing [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Sungrow Power Supply and Deye Technology [39][44] Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is characterized by stable demand and a focus on solid-state battery technology, with companies like CATL and other second-tier players expected to benefit [39][44] - The report notes the importance of material innovations such as lithium metal anodes and nickel-iron current collectors [39][44] - Recommended stocks include CATL, Xiamen Tungsten, and Putailai [39][44] Wind Power - The offshore wind sector is accelerating project construction, with expectations for increased profitability in the second half of the year [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Mingyang Smart Energy and Zhongji Lingnan [39][44] Power Equipment - The report indicates that high-voltage projects have been approved, with overseas demand expected to rise [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric [39][44] New Directions - The report highlights advancements in humanoid robotics and AI applications, with significant capital expenditure from major companies [39][44] - Recommended stocks include Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Zhejiang Rongtai [39][44]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading ODM in the smartphone sector, with a strategic focus on expanding its product offerings and customer base, aiming to become the world's largest smartphone ODM by 2024 [4][8]. - The "1+2+X" strategy is being effectively implemented, with the company diversifying its product lines to include tablets, smart wearables, AIPC, AI glasses, and automotive electronics, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth [6][20]. - The demand for AI-enabled devices is anticipated to sustain high growth, with AI smartphones and AI glasses emerging as key growth areas, benefiting the company's market position [7][51]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the ODM industry, evolving from IDH for feature phones to a comprehensive ODM model for various consumer electronics [6][20]. - The company has established a solid foundation in smartphone manufacturing, contributing to 78% of its revenue, while AIoT and tablets are becoming significant revenue streams [20]. Strategic Development - The "1+2+X" strategy focuses on smartphones as the core, while expanding into tablets and AIoT, with successful ventures into AIPC and AI glasses [6][20]. - The company aims for a revenue CAGR of approximately 10% and a net profit CAGR of around 20% from 2025 to 2028, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [29]. Market Position and Trends - The ODM industry is characterized by increasing technical barriers and a concentration of market share among leading players, with the company expected to benefit from these trends [7][8]. - The AI glasses market is projected to experience exponential growth, with the company positioned to capitalize on this trend through partnerships with major clients [62][68]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant revenue increase of 71% in 2024, although net profit declined by 17.21% due to rising raw material costs and intensified competition [33]. - The gross margin is expected to recover as raw material prices stabilize, with a projected gross margin of 7.45% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend [35]. Industry Dynamics - The ODM sector is witnessing a shift towards AI-enabled products, which are expected to drive demand and enhance the competitive landscape for leading ODM firms [51][55]. - The report highlights the importance of cost management and supply chain efficiency in maintaining profitability amid fluctuating raw material prices [78][81].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in holdings among public funds in Q2 2025, with increased allocations in wind energy, storage, and new technologies [2][4] - The overall heavy holdings in the electrical equipment and new energy sector decreased, with a notable decline in the proportion of electric vehicles, power grids, and photovoltaics [5][6] - Key stocks favored by funds include CATL and Sungrow, while Jinlang Technology and Aisuo shares saw significant increases in allocation [7][8] Industry Dimension Summary - In Q2 2025, the heavy holdings in the new energy sector accounted for approximately 12.31% of the total heavy holdings in A-shares, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous quarter [5][18] - The total market value of heavy holdings in the new energy sector was about 318.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% decrease [18] - The number of stocks held by institutions in the new energy sector increased to 176, while the total market value of the top ten heavy holdings decreased by 12.16% to 244.2 billion yuan [26] Sector Dimension Summary - The electric vehicle sector saw a 10.2% decrease in heavy holdings, with significant reductions in battery, vehicle, and robotics segments [6][30] - The wind energy sector experienced a 0.15 percentage point increase in heavy holdings, attributed to accelerated construction in Q2 [6][35] - The photovoltaic sector faced a decline due to the end of domestic rush installations and unclear demand and policy expectations for the second half of the year [6][35] Stock Dimension Summary - The top five stocks by fund heavy holdings as a percentage of total shares were Keda Li (21.6%), Zhejiang Rongtai (19.2%), Sungrow (16.6%), CATL (14.5%), and Yiwei Lithium Energy (13.8%) [7][47] - The top five stocks by total market value of heavy holdings were CATL, BYD, Sungrow, Huichuan Technology, and Yiwei Lithium Energy [7][47] - Stocks with increased institutional holdings included Jinlang Technology, Aisuo, and others, primarily driven by the positive outlook in storage, wind energy, and photovoltaic technologies [7][47] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on storage performance exceeding expectations, photovoltaic sector recovery, and ongoing large-scale engineering projects [8][52] - In the photovoltaic sector, it suggests benefiting from the anti-involution trend, particularly in polysilicon and BC battery segments [8][52] - For the wind energy sector, it emphasizes the importance of accelerated offshore wind construction and price recovery in wind turbines [8][54] - The electrical equipment sector is advised to focus on high-voltage approvals and large-scale projects, while also considering opportunities in AI and virtual power plants [8][54]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: "Offense and Defense Dividend 50 Portfolio" **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to enhance returns by selecting high-dividend stocks with a balance of growth and stability, outperforming the benchmark dividend indices[6][15] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed by combining stocks with high dividend yields, growth potential, and low volatility. The selection process involves filtering stocks based on dividend-related factors and optimizing the portfolio to achieve a balance between growth and defensive characteristics[6][15] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance, consistently outperforming the benchmark dividend indices and ranking in the top percentile among dividend-focused funds[6][21] - **Model Name**: "Central SOE High Dividend 30 Portfolio" **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with high dividend payouts, aiming to capture stable returns from these entities[15] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed by selecting 30 central SOEs with the highest dividend yields. The selection criteria emphasize stability and consistent dividend payouts[15] **Model Evaluation**: The model shows stable performance, delivering excess returns over the benchmark dividend indices[15][21] - **Model Name**: "Electronic Sector Enhanced Portfolios" **Model Construction Idea**: These models aim to enhance returns within the electronic sector by focusing on high-growth sub-sectors and leading companies in mature sub-sectors[15][31] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Balanced Allocation Enhanced Portfolio**: This portfolio is constructed by evenly allocating weights across various electronic sub-sectors to achieve diversification[15] 2. **Sector Leader Enhanced Portfolio**: This portfolio focuses on leading companies in mature sub-sectors, emphasizing their growth potential and market dominance[15][31] **Model Evaluation**: Both portfolios demonstrate positive returns, with the Sector Leader Enhanced Portfolio delivering higher excess returns relative to the electronic sector index[31] Model Backtesting Results - **Offense and Defense Dividend 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly excess return: ~1.41% over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[6][21] - Year-to-date excess return: ~3.52% over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[21] - Weekly performance percentile: ~11% among dividend-focused funds[6][21] - **Central SOE High Dividend 30 Portfolio**: - Weekly excess return: ~0.35% over the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[6][21] - **Electronic Sector Enhanced Portfolios**: - **Balanced Allocation Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return: ~0.89% over the electronic sector index[31] - **Sector Leader Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return: ~0.89% over the electronic sector index[31] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Dividend Quality **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the stability and sustainability of a company's dividend payouts[16][18] **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using metrics such as dividend payout ratio, historical dividend growth rate, and earnings stability. Companies with higher scores on these metrics are ranked higher[16][18] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong predictive power for identifying high-performing dividend stocks[16][18] - **Factor Name**: Dividend Growth **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on the growth potential of a company's dividends over time[16][18] **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is derived from the historical growth rate of dividends and projected earnings growth. Companies with consistent and high dividend growth rates are ranked higher[16][18] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows significant excess returns compared to pure dividend yield factors[16][18] - **Factor Name**: Low Volatility Dividend **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor targets stocks with high dividend yields and low price volatility[16][18] **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is constructed by combining dividend yield with a volatility measure (e.g., standard deviation of returns). Stocks with high yields and low volatility are ranked higher[16][18] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a defensive characteristic, outperforming during market downturns[16][18] Factor Backtesting Results - **Dividend Quality Factor**: - Weekly excess return: ~1.94% over the CSI Dividend Index[18] - **Dividend Growth Factor**: - Weekly excess return: ~0.92% over the CSI Dividend Index[18] - **Low Volatility Dividend Factor**: - Weekly excess return: ~0.69% over the CSI Dividend Index[18]

长江期货贵金属周报 非农不及预期，价格具有支撑 2025/8/4 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 数据来源：ifind 长江期货有色产业服务中心 美国非农就业数据不及预期，前两月就业人数下修，9 月降息预期升温，美黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五， 美黄金报收3416美元/盎司，周内上涨2.3%，关注上方 压力位3460，下方支撑位3360。 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2024/01/02 2024/02/02 2024/03/02 2024/04/02 2024/05/02 2024/06/02 2024/07/02 2024/08/02 2024/09/02 2024/10/02 2024/11/02 2024/12/02 2 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report: Cooling Production Cut Expectations, Price Under Pressure to Correct - Report Date: August 4, 2025 - Report Author: Li Ni from Yangtze River Futures' Industrial Service Headquarters - Non - ferrous Metals Center 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium is affected by factors such as mine project restarts and mine - right transfer reviews. Although the production in June increased, the future supply situation remains uncertain. The import volume of lithium ore and lithium salt decreased in June [4]. - The demand for carbonate lithium shows an upward trend. The overall production schedule in July increased, and the production, export, and sales of power and other batteries in June all increased. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market [5]. - The inventory of carbonate lithium showed a cumulative state this week. The factory inventory decreased, while the market inventory increased, and the futures inventory decreased [5]. - It is expected that the short - term price of carbonate lithium has support, but the downstream procurement is relatively cautious. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cut situation and the cathode material factory production schedule [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints Supply - Last week, the production of carbonate lithium decreased by 310 tons to 18,238 tons. In June, the production increased by 10.9% to 80,962 tons. Recently, many mine projects have restarted, but the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received mine - right transfer review notices, affecting the supply [4]. - In the first quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the further cost - reduction space is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure in fiscal year 2025 [4]. - In June 2025, the import volume of lithium ore in China was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. The top three import countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. The import volume from Australia decreased by 31% month - on - month, while that from Zimbabwe increased by 3% and from South Africa increased by 87%. The import volume of carbonate lithium in June was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%, with 12,000 tons imported from Chile, accounting for 56% [4]. - The CIF price of imported spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium with purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [4]. Demand - The overall production schedule in July increased month - on - month, with large - scale cell factories' production schedule increasing by 10% [5]. - In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4%. The total export of power and other batteries was 24.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 131.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 41.7% [5]. - The introduction of the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are expected to continuously support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market sales in China [5]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a cumulative state. The factory inventory decreased by 130 tons, the market inventory increased by 5,784 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 5,391 tons [5]. Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, the renewal of mica mine certificates in Yichun has no further impact. The domestic production of carbonate lithium increased by 10.9% in June. Recently, lithium salt factories have been producing stably. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 5% in June, and the import of lithium salt decreased by 16% month - on - month. It is expected that the future import volume of lithium salt from South America will supplement the supply [5]. - From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule of large - scale cell factories increased by 10% in July. Although many mine projects have restarted, the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received mine - right transfer review notices, and the mine rights of leading enterprises will expire in August, affecting the supply. Under the background of profit repair, the production of lithium extracted from ore continues to increase, and the overall supply is stable. CATL said that the mining work is normal and has submitted materials for approval [5]. - It is recommended to trade cautiously and continuously pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cut situation and the cathode material factory production schedule [5]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Multiple sets of trend charts are provided, including the weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly inventory, average price of lithium concentrate, average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium, monthly factory inventory of carbonate lithium, average production cost of carbonate lithium, production of power batteries, production of different raw - material carbonate lithium, production of cathode materials (phosphate iron lithium, ternary materials), import volume of spodumene, import volume of carbonate lithium, and prices of related materials (phosphate iron lithium, ternary materials 8 - series NCA type) from 2019 to 2025 [7][8][9][13][14][17][18][20][24][25][28][32][33][35][37]. - In 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from spodumene [19][20].

Market Performance - The growth style of the ChiNext board leads the market, with growth and momentum factors being dominant[2] - The healthcare and telecommunications sectors have shown significant gains, with healthcare leaders outperforming the industry benchmark by 3.95%[21] - The East Data West Computing theme has performed well, with notable gains in specialized and innovative sectors[2] Fund Performance - Funds with heavy positions have outperformed, with quantitative funds showing relatively small declines[6] - Year-to-date, the ChiNext growth index has increased by 6.39%, indicating strong performance in the growth sector[25] Market Dynamics - The rotation speed among industries and styles has been narrow, indicating a stable market environment[6] - The healthcare sector has led the industry with a gain of 2.78%, while the telecommunications sector gained 2.16%[21] Investment Themes - The specialized and innovative series has shown solid performance, with the ChiNext specialized and innovative index gaining 1.60%[27] - The overall market has seen a decline of 1.75% in the benchmark index, highlighting the relative strength of specific themes[27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - Amazon's FY25Q2 financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue of $167.702 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 8% [2][5] - The net profit for FY25Q2 was $18.164 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6% [2][5] - Capital expenditures (Capex) for Q2 were $32.2 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of $26 billion [2][5] - The report emphasizes the strengthening investment logic in AI infrastructure and suggests focusing on opportunities in AI commercialization [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Amazon's revenue breakdown shows North America at $100.1 billion (YoY +11%) and international at $36.8 billion (YoY +16%) [10] - Online store revenue was $61.485 billion (YoY +11%), third-party seller services at $40.348 billion (YoY +11%), and advertising services at $15.694 billion (YoY +23%) [10] - AWS cloud business generated $30.873 billion (YoY +17%), with an operating profit margin of 32.9% [10] Capital Expenditure & Future Guidance - The company plans to continue increasing investments in AI infrastructure, with Q2 Capex expected to represent the quarterly level for the second half of 2025 [10] - Future revenue guidance for FY25Q3 is projected between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, with a midpoint of $176.75 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectation [10] Business Developments & Outlook - The demand for AI remains strong, with no immediate signs of reduced demand due to tariffs [10] - Amazon's shopping agent, Alexa Plus, has millions of users, and new AI models like Deepfleet are being developed to enhance operational efficiency [10] - The report suggests focusing on AI infrastructure, overseas applications, and vertical integration in specific sectors like education, tax, and healthcare [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The long-term investment value of the steel sector remains promising under the "anti-involution" theme, similar to the supply-side reform period from 2016 to 2018, where the sector's performance was volatile until the exit of outdated capacities in late 2016 [2][6] - In the short term, the market lacks clear anchors for trading, leading to expectations that the equity market will follow steel prices, which are influenced by upstream and downstream trading [2][6] - The valuation position of steel stocks is a key focus for the market, with companies like Hualing Steel, New Steel, and Fangda Special Steel appearing relatively undervalued [6][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Recent tracking indicates insufficient downstream support, leading to a decline in steel prices. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 0.69% year-on-year and 2.47% month-on-month [4] - The average daily pig iron output of sample steel companies fell to 2.4071 million tons, down 1.52 million tons per day month-on-month [4] - Total steel inventory increased by 1.17% month-on-month, while year-on-year it decreased by 23.42% [4] Price Trends - Shanghai rebar prices dropped to 3,350 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY/ton month-on-month, while hot-rolled steel prices rose to 3,390 CNY/ton, down 130 CNY/ton month-on-month [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 148 CNY/ton, with a lagging cost profit of 399 CNY/ton [5] Policy and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, with recent government meetings emphasizing the need to rectify disorderly competition and optimize capacity in key industries [6] - The report suggests that despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for the steel sector remains positive due to cost optimization and sustained policy support [6][2] - The report identifies four main investment lines: cost reduction due to new capacity, recovery of performance and valuation for low PB stocks, mergers and acquisitions under state-owned enterprise reforms, and focusing on quality processing and resource leaders [26][27][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [12]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 2.94% increase in the 31st week of 2025, ranking first among major industries in the Yangtze River region. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 20.52%, ranking third [2][7]. - Strong financial performance and order growth from the four major North American cloud service providers indicate a robust capital expenditure trend, driven by the acceleration of AI commercial applications and sustained demand in the overseas computing power chain [8]. - The adoption of liquid cooling technology is accelerating, with significant opportunities identified in the liquid cooling supply chain [9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 31st week of 2025, the communication sector increased by 2.94%, leading the Yangtze River industry rankings. Since the beginning of the year, the sector has grown by 20.52%, placing it third overall. Notable stock performances include: - Top gainers: Invech (+29.6%), Changfei Fiber (+25.8%), Tianfu Communication (+25.2%) - Top losers: Dawi Technology (-7.2%), Runze Technology (-6.5%), Aofei Data (-6.4%) [2][7]. North American Cloud Providers - The financial results of the four major North American cloud providers exceeded expectations: - Microsoft reported revenues of 764 billion and net profits of 272 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18% and 24% respectively. Azure services saw a 39% increase [8]. - Meta's revenue reached 475 billion with a net profit of 183 billion, marking a 22% and 36% increase year-on-year [8]. - AWS reported revenues of 309 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with a backlog of 1950 billion, a 25% increase [8]. - Google's cloud business revenue was 136 billion, a 32% increase, with a backlog of 1060 billion, up 38% [8]. Liquid Cooling Technology - Vertiv's Q2 2025 results showed net sales of 2.64 billion, a 35% increase, and net profits of 490 million, up 28%. The company raised its full-year guidance, expecting net sales to reach 10 billion, a 25% increase [9]. - Microsoft announced that all Azure data center regions now support liquid cooling deployment, indicating a significant shift in infrastructure [9]. - The report highlights the growing importance of liquid cooling technology in the industry, with several companies making advancements in this area [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - Telecom Operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication - Domestic Computing: Fenghuo Communication, Huafeng Technology, Invech - AI Applications: Heertai, Tuobang Technology, Yiyuan Communication - Satellite Applications: Haige Communication, Huace Navigation [10].