Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoint The report mainly focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the actual and forecasted issuance of local bonds, the progress of new bond issuance, the net supply of refinancing bonds, and the issuance details of special bonds. It also analyzes the investment and trading aspects of local bonds, such as the primary - secondary spread and the regional secondary spread [2][6][7]. Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From September 29 to October 12, local bonds were issued with a total of 825.28 billion yuan, including 258.89 billion yuan of new bonds (99.20 billion yuan of new general bonds and 159.69 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 566.38 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (454.33 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 112.05 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From October 13 to October 19, the forecasted issuance of local bonds is 213.46 billion yuan, including 153.65 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 153.65 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 59.81 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (24.96 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 34.86 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6][7]. - **Comparison between Planned and Actual Issuance**: There are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions, which are presented in relevant figures and tables [17][21]. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 83.53%, and that of new special bonds is 84.10% [31]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of October 12 is presented in a figure, with the statistical scope including both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [32][33]. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of October 12, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 19958.85 billion yuan, with no new disclosure this week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1290.00 billion yuan), and Guizhou (1271.32 billion yuan). The statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [8]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of October 12, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 12029.16 billion yuan, and since 2023, it is 23907.80 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2340.35 billion yuan), Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan), and Hubei (1287.69 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan). The statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [8]. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in figures, showing the spreads for different maturities and the changes over time [45]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The regional secondary spreads of local bonds for different regions from July 11, 2025, to October 10, 2025, are presented in a table [46]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The investment direction of new special bonds is presented in a figure, with the latest month's statistics only considering the issued new bonds [48].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent tariff actions by the Trump administration are more likely aimed at setting the stage for future negotiations rather than purely exerting pressure, with the market's response expected to be more rational this time around [2][5][18] - Compared to April, the A-share market has seen significant increases in valuation and leverage, particularly in sectors such as TMT and non-ferrous metals, suggesting a strong upward trend despite short-term volatility [2][6][8] - The report emphasizes that the core logic driving the "slow bull" market in A-shares remains unchanged, with technology sectors identified as the long-term focus for investment [2][8][36] Group 2 - The report highlights that the response strategies from China have become more precise and targeted, with specific measures taken against U.S. industries, indicating a shift towards a more nuanced approach in trade relations [5][18] - It notes that the market's reaction to the recent tariff threats is expected to be more resilient, as investors have adjusted their expectations based on previous experiences and the targeted nature of China's countermeasures [5][18] - The report outlines that sectors heavily reliant on exports, such as electronics and automotive parts, may face short-term challenges, while defensive sectors like banking and agriculture could benefit from increased risk aversion [8][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - Huamao Technology is a leader in automotive passive safety, with high capacity utilization of airbag products. The new factory is in the ramp-up phase, expected to drive continuous growth in the automotive segment. The acquisition of the leading optical module PCBA company, Fuchuang Youyue, is progressing, marking the company's entry into semiconductor and computing power manufacturing, creating a new growth avenue. The AI trend is anticipated to drive high growth in the optical module industry, with Fuchuang Youyue's promising outlook likely to boost the company's performance [2][4][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huamao Technology plans to acquire the remaining 57.84% stake in Fuchuang Youyue, aiming for full control. Prior to this transaction, the company held a 42.16% stake through its subsidiary Huamao Dongyang [4]. Financial Performance - Fuchuang Youyue is a leading optical communication service provider with a well-established global capacity layout. The company has been in the optical communication sector for over 18 years and is one of the largest PCBA manufacturers in China, collaborating with several top global clients. By June 2025, Fuchuang Youyue plans to have a total of 16 production lines [9]. - Fuchuang Youyue's revenue and profit are expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 1.23 billion and net profits of 130 million in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 116% and 434%, respectively. For the first four months of 2025, revenues reached 640 million with a net profit of 70 million, showing an increase in net profit margin from 4.2% in 2023 to 11.7% [9]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 543 million, 720 million, and 915 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 96%, 33%, and 27%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 31x, 24x, and 19x [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The Nobel Prize in Physics 2025 was awarded to John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret, and John M. Martinis for their contributions to achieving macroscopic quantum tunneling effects and energy quantization in circuits, which lays a solid theoretical foundation for the development of superconducting quantum computing [2][5] - The Nobel Prize results are expected to have a positive and profound impact on the ecosystem of superconducting quantum computing, reducing uncertainties in investment decisions and attracting more strategic capital into the quantum computing sector [10] - The current focus of quantum computing is shifting from principle verification to large-scale engineering expansion, with significant advancements in quantum bit quality and control [10] Summary by Sections Event Description - The Nobel Prize in Physics 2025 was awarded on October 7, recognizing the achievements in quantum tunneling and energy quantization [5] Event Commentary - The award is anticipated to accelerate the development of the quantum computing industry, promoting the entire quantum technology supply chain, including core components for quantum communication and quantum systems platforms [10] - The report suggests paying attention to the entire quantum technology supply chain, particularly leading companies in quantum computing and quantum communication [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. is set to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on all critical software starting November 1, 2025, which is expected to accelerate the domestic software replacement process in China [2][5]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on domestic chip supply chains, operating systems, and Huawei's supply chain as key investment opportunities due to the anticipated acceleration in the domestic software industry [2][10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On October 10, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs and export controls on critical software, impacting electronic design automation, industrial software, and foundational software [5]. Event Commentary - The U.S. has previously implemented export controls on EDA software, indicating a trend of increasing restrictions on technology exports to China. This latest move is seen as a further escalation in the U.S.-China tech rivalry, necessitating a shift towards domestic alternatives in critical technology sectors [10]. - The report emphasizes that the domestic software industry has made significant progress in terms of technology, policy, and market development, achieving compatibility with international standards and widespread application in key sectors such as government, finance, and energy [10]. - The upcoming policy assessment years of 2025 and 2027 are expected to drive further acceleration in the industry, with a focus on investment opportunities in domestic chip supply chains, operating systems, and Huawei's ecosystem [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Insights - The privatization of Hang Seng Bank by HSBC reflects a significant undervaluation of quality domestic bank stocks [6][40] - The Longjiang Bank Index increased by 0.2% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.7% and the ChiNext Index by 4.1%, indicating a potential valuation recovery in the banking sector [2][21] - HSBC's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 14.6% at the end of June, with the privatization expected to have a one-time impact of approximately 125 basis points on capital metrics [6][40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Longjiang Bank Index saw a cumulative increase of 0.2%, with significant individual stock performances from Qilu Bank, Changsha Bank, and Shanghai Bank, which rose by 2.6% [2][21] - HSBC's stock fell by 5.8% due to market concerns over the premium paid for the privatization of Hang Seng Bank [8][21] Valuation Insights - The privatization acquisition is expected to provide critical guidance for the valuation of quality bank stocks, with a target price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.8x for quality banks [7][43] - The report highlights that the return on equity (ROE) for leading domestic retail banks is generally between 10% and 15%, while Hang Seng Bank's projected return on tangible equity (ROTE) for 2024 is 11.3% [7][43] Convertible Bonds - There are opportunities for valuation recovery in convertible bonds of banks, with specific mention of the increasing distance to strong redemption prices for stocks like CCB and SPDB [9][27] - SPDB's convertible bonds are set to be delisted soon, with a current balance of 24.3 billion yuan and a conversion premium of 16.7% [9][27] Trading Activity - The trading activity of state-owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks has decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a stabilization in trading density [10][32] - The average dividend yield of the six major state-owned banks in A-shares has risen to 4.16%, with a yield spread of 231 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield [23][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental industry [13] Core Insights - Since 2024, China has accelerated the establishment of a national carbon market regulatory framework, with significant progress in the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) methodology since October 2023. As of September 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of CCER is approximately 2.43 billion yuan, with an average transaction price of 86.41 yuan per ton [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Carbon Emission Control System - The carbon emission control system is gradually improving, with a unified national carbon market being constructed. The market includes both the national carbon quota trading market (CEA) and the voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER), which operate independently but are interconnected through a quota offset mechanism [6][19][21] CCER Methodology Expansion - The CCER methodology has been continuously expanded, with four batches of methodologies released since October 2023. The first batch includes forestry carbon sinks and offshore wind power, while subsequent batches cover various energy-saving and emission reduction projects. As of September 2025, 29 voluntary emission reduction projects have been registered, with an expected annual reduction of 10.438 million tons [7][26][27] CCER Market Performance - The average transaction price of CCER is currently higher than that of CEA, reflecting a temporary supply-demand imbalance due to strict project approvals and limited issuance. The report anticipates that as the issuance of CCER increases and market mechanisms mature, prices will gradually return to a reasonable relationship. The average transaction price of CCER from January to September 2025 is 86.41 yuan per ton, while CEA's average is 69.29 yuan per ton [8][34] Benefits of Agricultural and Forestry Biomass Projects - The report highlights the potential benefits of agricultural and forestry biomass projects under the CCER framework. For instance, assuming a CCER price of 80 yuan per ton, companies like Changqing Group and China Everbright Green Environmental Protection could see significant revenue contributions from CCER sales, amounting to 139 million yuan and 384 million HKD, respectively [9][44][45] Investment Logic for CCER - The investment logic for CCER emphasizes the importance of additionality in projects, focusing on profitability compensation rather than mere emission reduction. Key areas of interest include carbon monitoring equipment and consulting services, as well as the acceleration of related industries such as biomass power generation and hydrogen energy [10][49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction and engineering industry is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The concept of "National Strategic Hinterland" has gained prominence, particularly in Sichuan, with emphasis on its role in supporting national development strategies [6][19] - Sichuan is highlighted as a key area for infrastructure development, with significant construction demand anticipated due to its economic strength and strategic location [8][30] - Shaanxi is positioned as a core area of the "Belt and Road" initiative, benefiting from its high proportion of infrastructure investment [9][22] - Chongqing is recognized for its ongoing development within the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, with several major projects expected to bolster regional economic growth [10][25] Summary by Sections National Strategic Hinterland - The "National Strategic Hinterland" serves as a concrete representation of the "Great Rear" concept, providing substantial support to frontier regions, primarily referring to inland urban clusters in central and western China [6][17] Key Regions: Focus on Sichuan, with Attention to Shaanxi and Chongqing - **Sichuan**: Identified as a national strategic hinterland with robust infrastructure needs, projected to accelerate construction progress in the near term [8][30] - **Shaanxi**: Expected to benefit from the "Belt and Road" initiative and strategic hinterland construction, with a significant focus on infrastructure investment [9][22] - **Chongqing**: Continues to advance the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, with major projects like the Three Gorges Waterway and Western Land-Sea New Corridor expected to support economic and construction demand [10][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of industrialization in controllable nuclear fusion, with significant advancements in the BEST project, marking a new phase in construction [11] - The defense demand is steadily recovering, with AIDC accelerating construction, leading to a high prosperity cycle in the module power supply sector [33] - Bangladesh plans to procure 20 J-10CE fighter jets, emphasizing opportunities for high-end military trade manufacturers [74] Summary by Sections Section 1: Controllable Nuclear Fusion - The successful installation of the key component, the Dewar base, for the BEST device marks a critical breakthrough, with the project expected to demonstrate fusion energy generation by 2027 [11] - The current focus in the controllable nuclear fusion industry is on fusion devices and upstream material segments, which are expected to drive demand for upstream materials and midstream structural components [15] Section 2: Module Power Supply - Module power supplies are highly integrated power converters that offer flexibility, reliability, and efficiency, making them suitable for various high-tech applications [35] - The military module power supply market in China is projected to reach a total scale of 59 billion yuan from 2024 to 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.7% [49] Section 3: Military Trade Opportunities - Bangladesh's procurement of J-10CE fighter jets represents a significant breakthrough in China's military trade, with a total contract value of $2.2 billion [74] - The report indicates that China's military aircraft have entered a new era of high-quality self-research equipment exports, with various models ready for international trade [78] - The report identifies key domestic companies involved in the nuclear fusion supply chain, including Shanghai Superconductor and West Superconductor, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the fusion sector [21][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The upcoming Q3 reports are expected to show continued high growth in brokerage performance, enhancing the sector's allocation value. The insurance sector reflects a trend of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, leading to a higher certainty of long-term ROE improvement and accelerated valuation recovery. Overall, the cost-effectiveness of allocations is gradually increasing [2][6] - Recommendations include companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, as well as firms with significant advantages in business models and market positions [6] - The report recommends specific stocks including Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [2][6] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.5% last week, with a relative excess return of +1.0% compared to the CSI 300, ranking in the middle of the industry [7] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has risen by 7.4%, but with a relative excess return of -9.9% compared to the CSI 300, indicating a lower ranking [7] - The average daily trading volume in the market has increased to 26,029.82 billion yuan, up 18.98% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 2.71%, up 42.99 basis points [7] Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on strengthening the regulation of non-auto insurance business [8] - China Pacific Insurance's Chief Actuary Zhang Yuanhan has resigned [8]