丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨四川路桥（600039.SH） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title] 二季度订单加速增长，省内基建持续景气 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布二季度经营情况公告，公司二季度中标总额 375.59 亿元，同比增长 25%，上半年累 计中标 722.4 亿元，同比增长 22.2%。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 四川路桥（600039.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 二季度订单加速增长，省内基建持续景气 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布二季度经营情况公告，公司二季度中标总额 375.59 亿元，同比增长 25%，上半年累 计中标 722.4 亿元，同比增长 22.2%。 事件评论 风险提示 1、省内基建推进不及预期； 2、蜀道集团支持力度不及预期。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美国 CPI 上升略超预期，核心 CPI 符合预期。那么结构上的走势有何具体变化？ 对美联储降息有何影响？其一，地缘局势升温，使能源环比涨幅上升。其二，汽车、服装环比 一下一上，核心商品通胀压力上升；住房通胀环比增速回落，核心服务通胀压力温和。往前看， 我们认为：短期，美国就业稳健、通胀温和、关税暂缓期延长，美联储决策空间充足，7 月大 概率继续观望；中期，各国贸易谈判的结果仍是重点，关税实质落地规模，及其对美国经济的 影响将是决定后续货币政策的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 2] ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [10]. Core Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference held on July 14-15 emphasized the transition of urbanization in China from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, focusing on quality urban renewal rather than large-scale expansion [8][13]. - The conference outlined key tasks for urban development, including optimizing modern urban systems, building innovative cities, and enhancing livability and sustainability [13]. - The report highlights the historical significance of this conference, marking a shift towards high-quality urban development, contrasting with previous meetings that focused on rapid expansion and basic infrastructure [13]. - Future funding for urban renewal is expected to come from various sources, including special central budget investments and local government bonds, indicating potential for increased capital inflow into the sector [13]. - The report suggests that the construction sector should focus on leading companies and the entire design-construction-operation chain, particularly in urban renewal projects [13]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Central Urban Work Conference took place in Beijing, with significant speeches from top leaders, indicating a strategic shift in urbanization policy [8][9]. Market Performance - The report includes a market performance comparison over the past 12 months, showing a relative performance of the construction and engineering sector against the CSI 300 index [11]. Related Research - The report references several related studies that discuss urban renewal and the construction industry's response to current challenges [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - In the first half of the year, narrow infrastructure investment reached 9.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a sequential decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment totaled 12.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, with a sequential decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2][8][13] - Water conservancy investment growth has slowed down, while transportation investment has accelerated significantly. In June, water conservancy and public facility management investment recorded a negative growth of -5.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of -8.4%. In contrast, transportation investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in railway and road investments [13] - Cement production showed weakness in June, but high-frequency data indicated improvement in July. Cement output in the first half of the year decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while July data showed a slight recovery in demand [13] - The overall economic data for the first half of the year showed stable growth, with marginal weakening in investment. However, infrastructure is expected to remain supported throughout the year due to the gradual use of fiscal funds and new policies [13] - Emphasis on the investment value of central and state-owned construction enterprises, with potential "real dividend" attributes in certain quality segments and regions [13] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - Narrow infrastructure investment was 9.2 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, with a sequential decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment was 12.4 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, with a sequential decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2][8][13] Sector Performance - Water conservancy investment growth has turned negative, while transportation investment has accelerated. In June, water conservancy investment decreased by 5.2% month-on-month, while transportation investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year [13] Cement Production - Cement production in the first half of the year decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with signs of recovery in July [13] Economic Outlook - The overall economic data indicates stable growth, with infrastructure expected to remain supported due to fiscal policies [13] Investment Opportunities - Focus on the investment value of central and state-owned construction enterprises, particularly in quality segments and regions [13]

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 公司研究丨点评报告丨杭州银行（600926.SH） [Table_Title] 机构减持影响有限，价值重估方向清晰 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 杭州银行公告中国人寿拟未来三个月内通过集中竞价或大宗交易的方式减持不超过 0.70%股 份。中国人寿投资杭州银行长达 16 年，持有长期回报丰厚，预计此次减持主要基于自身经营 管理及资产配置需要，对股价影响有限。2024 年 8 月已公告过中国人寿减持计划，通过集中竞 价减持 1%的股份，本次减持的股份是上次减持未完成的部分，规模占比较低，预计对股价影 响有限。杭州银行是银行股的利润增速龙头和资产质量冠军，近期可转债已完成转股，对股价 影响出清，中长期高 ROE 优势可持续，坚定看好价值重估。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 杭州银行（600926.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 机构减 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 to 960 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55% to 75%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be between 186 to 295 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -31% to +10% [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 850 to 960 million yuan for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 55% to 75%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 186 to 295 million yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -31% to +10% [2][7]. Business Analysis - The company has completed the acquisition of COFCO Packaging, leading to a significant revenue increase of 57% year-on-year in Q1. This acquisition has reduced the risk of high revenue concentration from a single customer, with the current major customer revenue share dropping to approximately 20% [12]. - The three-piece can business is expected to maintain stable performance, while the two-piece can business shows potential for profit improvement. The company plans to relocate excess production capacity overseas, which may provide opportunities for price recovery in the domestic market [12]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic metal packaging industry, with a robust profit base from the three-piece can segment. The two-piece can production capacity is expected to exceed 25 billion cans, capturing nearly 40% of the market share. The integration with COFCO Packaging is anticipated to enhance the supply-demand dynamics and competitive landscape in the domestic two-piece can market [12]. - The company aims to drive growth through improved gross margins in the two-piece can segment, expansion into overseas markets, and increased consumption demand domestically [12]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.41 billion, 1.42 billion, and 1.71 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 11, and 9 times [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [12] Core Insights - The report highlights that the overseas manufacturing trend is accelerating, with injection molding machines expected to set a global competitive benchmark for production equipment. In 2024, the import value of injection molding machines is projected to be $437 million, while the export value is expected to reach $2.089 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.652 billion, indicating a trend of acceleration in recent years [3][7][29]. Summary by Sections Global Competitive Landscape - China is the largest manufacturer and exporter of injection molding machines, maintaining its position as the leading exporter. In 2023, China's injection molding machine exports amounted to $1.714 billion, with projections for 2024 indicating an increase to $2.089 billion. The trade surplus is expected to expand to $1.652 billion [3][29][51]. Demand Side Dynamics - The demand for injection molding machines is diversifying, with emerging markets showing significant growth potential. In 2023, China's plastic consumption accounted for approximately 23% of global consumption, indicating substantial room for growth in overseas markets [7][41][43]. Supply Side Changes - The global export landscape for injection molding machines is evolving, with China's competitive edge becoming increasingly prominent. China has maintained its status as the largest exporter of injection molding machines, with other notable exporting countries including Austria, Japan, Germany, and Canada [8][51]. Export Market Opportunities - The report details that exports to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Russia, Africa, and Oceania are expected to continue growing rapidly, particularly with a projected 105% increase in exports to Southeast Asia by May 2025, which will account for 45% of total exports [3][9]. Leading Companies' Globalization Efforts - Major domestic companies such as Haitian International and Yizumi are accelerating their globalization efforts, with overseas revenues projected to reach 6.016 billion yuan and 1.395 billion yuan respectively in 2024. These companies aim for a 50% export ratio, indicating a significant increase in their global market share [10][12].

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include their construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The report primarily discusses industry performance insights based on earnings forecasts, sectoral trends, and historical market reactions to earnings announcements. It does not delve into quantitative modeling or factor analysis.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The home hardware industry is a high-quality sector with significant growth opportunities, characterized by high supply chain barriers and diverse application scenarios [3][8] - The market space for home hardware exceeds 1 trillion yuan, with estimated market sizes of approximately 540 billion yuan for basic hardware, 130 billion yuan for storage hardware, and 480 billion yuan for kitchen and bathroom hardware [8][26] - The leading brands in the home hardware market are relatively scarce, with Han Gao Group gradually establishing brand advantages through design and channel strategies [10][19] Summary by Sections Home Hardware: A High-Quality Sector - Home hardware serves as an intermediate product in home consumption, directly influencing the quality and class of downstream products, thus possessing both functional and consumer attributes [19][20] - The industry is characterized by a high degree of customization and a significant scale economy threshold, necessitating companies to build channel and cost advantages alongside brand recognition [19][20] Market Structure: Scarcity of Leading Brands - The global home hardware market exceeds 300 billion yuan, with leading brands being relatively scarce. Key players include Blum, HAFELE, and Han Gao Group [9][10] - Han Gao Group focuses on the domestic consumer market, while other companies like TUT and Xinghui primarily engage in export business [9] Han Gao Group: Accelerating Growth as a Leading Brand - Han Gao Group is enhancing its retail brand barriers through design capabilities, celebrity endorsements, and after-sales support [10] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of approximately 2.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of about 530 million yuan, reflecting a net profit margin of around 19% [10] - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27% in revenue and 57% in net profit over the past five years [10] Competitive Factors in Home Hardware - Different categories of home hardware face varying competitive factors: 1. Storage hardware primarily competes on brand and channel [19][44] 2. Basic hardware focuses on channel, cost, and brand competition [19][44] 3. Kitchen and bathroom hardware competes on channel, brand, and cost, with competition from leading sanitary and appliance brands [19][44]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [11][13]. Core Viewpoints - The company operates in three main segments: energy technology services, energy logistics services, and low-carbon environmental and digitalization services. It has shown significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements since its listing, with a steady decline in operating expenses. Despite fluctuations in oil prices, the company's performance has been consistently growing, benefiting from the national seven-year action plan [2][7][46]. - The global potential for offshore oil and gas resources is substantial, with ultra-deepwater being a future trend. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on increased exploration and development efforts in offshore oil and gas, especially as domestic oil companies increase capital expenditures to enhance energy security [8][54]. - The company has a strong correlation between its revenue and profitability with the production activities of CNOOC, demonstrating resilience against oil price fluctuations. The average dividend payout ratio since its listing is 35.62%, indicating robust dividend potential as earnings continue to grow [10][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a publicly listed entity controlled by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), focusing on offshore and onshore oil and gas production. It aims to become a world-class energy technology service provider with a Chinese characteristic [7][30]. Business Segments - The company’s business is divided into three main categories: 1. Energy technology services, which have seen rapid revenue growth. 2. Energy logistics services, which are expected to benefit from stable demand for LNG transportation. 3. Low-carbon environmental and digitalization services, which are crucial for sustainable development [9][36][39]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 52.517 billion yuan, with energy logistics services contributing 23.210 billion yuan, energy technology services 21.733 billion yuan, and low-carbon services 10.060 billion yuan. The revenue from CNOOC accounted for 61.7% of total revenue [39][42]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 was 3.656 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.66% year-on-year increase, supported by a steady rise in operational efficiency and cost management [46][48]. Market Trends - The report highlights the increasing reliance on foreign oil and gas, with crude oil dependency reaching 72.1% and natural gas dependency at 42% by 2024. This trend emphasizes the need for enhanced domestic exploration and production efforts [55][56]. - The company is expected to benefit from CNOOC's stable capital expenditures, which are projected to increase significantly despite fluctuations in oil prices, supporting the overall offshore oil service industry [65][66].