——主题量化投资系列之二 自 2024 年下半年起，"防止内卷式恶性竞争"的政策表述频繁出现，并在 2025 年逐步被纳入制度化框架。基于这一宏观政策信号，本文将系统解析内卷的经 济机制及其在产业链中的具体表现，并在此逻辑框架下，运用量化方法构建一 套可回测、可实施的选股策略，以捕捉政策主导下的结构性投资机会。 风险提示：本报告结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境 发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@cmschina.com.cn 研究助理 董晓宇 dongxiaoyu@cmschina.com.cn 基于"反内卷"的量化投资策略研究 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 08 月 28 日 q 近年来，中国经济在转型升级的关键阶段逐渐暴露出产业内卷、低水平重复 竞争、结构性产能过剩等系统性问题，严重抑制了资源效率与企业盈利能 力。自 2024 年下半年起，"防止内卷式恶性竞争"的政策表述频繁出现， 并在 2025 年逐步被纳入制度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 4.102 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 331 million yuan, up 44.34% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year following adjustments in its direct sales channels [6] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 498 million yuan, 630 million yuan, and 761 million yuan, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 25.6x for 2025 [6] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 23.81%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.34 percentage points [6] - The revenue from the franchise business grew by 36.24% year-on-year, while self-operated channel revenue increased by 4.75% [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling approximately 89 million yuan [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 8.168 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.56 yuan, with a PE ratio of 25.6 [10] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder, Shantou Chao Hongji Investment Co., Ltd., holds a 28.55% stake in the company [2]

新奥股份发布 2025 年中报，上半年实现营业总收入 660.15 亿元，同比-1.49%； 归母净利润 24.08 亿元，同比-4.82%。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 新奥股份（600803.SH） 25 年中报点评：核心利润稳健增长，私有化持续推进 周期/环保及公用事业 盈利预测与估值。公司聚焦天然气主业，海内外资源结合保障长期供应，随 着经济稳步向好，预计售气量逐步提升；顺价机制畅通，有望保持合理毛差； 私有化新奥能源，构建一体化天然气产业智能生态运营商；注重股东回报， 稳定高分红彰显投资价值。维持公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润预期 45.05、 49.23、55.17 亿元，同比增长 0.3%、9.3%、12.0%；归母核心利润分别为 52.12、56.88、63.39 亿元，同比增长 1.3%、9.1%、11.4%。公司当前股价 对应 PE 为 12.8x、11.7x、10.4x，维持"增持"评级。 增持（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：18.56 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 3097 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue and net profit growth of 21.93% and 62.72% year-on-year in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations due to inventory reduction in Q1, successful new product promotions, and significant improvements in customized channels [1][3][4] - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts over the next three years, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.59, 0.68, and 0.76 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to a valuation of 21X for 2025 [4][5] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.391 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, down 23.01% year-on-year [3][5] - Q2 2025 saw a revenue of 749 million yuan, up 21.93% year-on-year, and a net profit of 115 million yuan, up 62.72% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in performance [3][4] - The company’s gross margin improved to 36.96% in Q2 2025, an increase of 3.63 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher growth in high-margin products and a decrease in raw material costs [3][4] Business Segmentation - In Q2 2025, revenue from hot pot condiments, recipe-style condiments, and others was 255 million yuan, 462 million yuan, and 27 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 28.95%, 17.82%, and 10.17% [3] - The company had 3,251 distributors as of H1 2025, an increase of 136 from Q1 2025, indicating an expansion in distribution channels [3] Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued recovery in its core business, although revenue growth may slow in H2 2025 due to high base effects from the previous year [4] - The company is focused on launching new products and expanding its market presence, particularly in the eastern region, which has shown rapid growth [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 新乳业（002946.SZ） 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：18.25 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 861 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 851 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 15.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 15.5 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 3.8 | | ROE（TTM） | 19.5 | | 资产负债率 | 62.5% | | (%) 新乳业 主要股东 | 沪深300 Universal Dairy Limited | | 200 主要股东持股比例 | 65.07% | | 150 | | 股价表现 100 | 50 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % 0 | 1m | 6m | 12m | | 绝对表现 -50 | 8 | 33 | 132 | | 相对表现 Aug/24 | Dec/24 2 | Apr/25 22 | Aug/25 99 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 低温延续增长，盈利提升超预期 消费品/食品饮料 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 中国广核（003816.SZ） 25 年中报点评：电价下滑+成本上升导致业绩承压，惠 州核电注入加速成长 中国广核发布 2025 年中报，上半年实现营业收入 391.67 亿元，同比-0.53%； 归母净利润 59.52 亿元，同比-16.3%。 ❑ 风险提示：核电机组安全稳定运行风险、审批进度不及预期、项目建设不及 预期、电价下行风险等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 82549 | 86804 | 85880 | 89903 | 96724 | | 同比增长 | -0% | 5% | -1% | 5% | 8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 20594 | 21974 | 20427 | 21674 | 24220 | | 同比增长 | 9% | 7% | -7% | 6% | 12% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 10725 | 10814 | 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price in the near term [3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 40.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.66% to 5.666 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in the equity stake in a subsidiary [1][6]. - The nuclear power segment showed strong performance with a 12.01% increase in electricity generation, totaling 99.861 billion kWh, benefiting from reduced maintenance losses and new unit commissioning [6]. - The renewable energy segment experienced a significant increase in electricity generation by 35.81% to 21.553 billion kWh, although rising costs impacted profitability [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 79.913 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 10.031 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 14% increase [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.6x for 2025, with projections of 17.1x and 15.4x for 2026 and 2027, respectively [7]. Performance Summary - The company has a total market capitalization of 186.6 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 171.3 billion yuan [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) stands at 7.5%, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 70% [3]. - The company has 19 nuclear units under construction or approved, with a total installed capacity of 21.859 million kW, indicating strong growth potential [6].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 中闽能源（600163.SH） 25 年中报点评：Q2 风况不佳+限电导致电量下滑，业 绩受所得税增长拖累 中闽能源发布 2025 年中报，上半年实现营业收入 7.94 亿元，同比-2.95%；归 母净利润 3.14 亿元，同比-8.07%。 ❑ 风险提示：风光资源不及预期、项目获取和开工进度不及预期、资产注入情 况不及预期、上网电价下行风险、宏观经济周期性波动的风险等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 1732 | 1741 | 1771 | 2143 | 2612 | | 同比增长 | -3% | 1% | 2% | 21% | 22% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 863 | 824 | 895 | 982 | 1098 | | 同比增长 | -6% | -4% | 9% | 10% | 12% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 678 | 651 | 6 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 航发动力（600893.SH） 交付节奏调整致业绩承压，黎阳公司营收实现较快增长 中游制造/军工 25H1 实现营收 140.98 亿元，YoY-23.99%，主要是客户需求变化，交付不及 预期所致；归母净利润 0.92 亿元，YoY-84.57%。 2025 年公司经营目标：预计实现营业收入 476.63 亿元（较 24 年实际营收基 本持平），其中航空发动机及衍生产品收入 445.26 亿元（较 24 年实际营收 -1.04%）。预计实现归母净利润 5.92 亿元（较 24 年实际归母净利润-31.16%）。 ❑ 风险提示：新型号研制交付进度不及预期，产能释放情况低于预期。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：39.66 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 2666 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 2665 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 105.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 105.7 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 14.9 | | ROE（TTM） | 0.9 | | 资产负债率 | ...

| 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 83272 | 89175 | 85261 | 85914 | 86574 | | 同比增长 | 13% | 7.1% | -4% | 1% | 1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 42004 | 44200 | 40741 | 41086 | 41076 | | 同比增长 | 13% | 5.2% | -8% | 1% | -0% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 30211 | 31853 | 29360 | 29609 | 29601 | | 同比增长 | 13% | 5.4% | -8% | 1% | -0% | 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：126.62 元 基础数据 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 五粮液（000858.SZ） Q2 利润增速转负，经销商集中度提升 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报， 25Q2 单季度实现收入/归母净利润 15 ...