- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to ESG analysis or construction[1][2][3] - The content primarily focuses on ESG market trends, policy updates, and industry events without discussing specific quantitative methodologies or factor testing[10][17][43] - No quantitative backtesting results, formulas, or performance metrics for models or factors are provided in the report[18][24][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of China-US trade negotiations, which may benefit the shipping sector. It highlights the upward potential of infrastructure stocks and the recovery potential of the express delivery industry [1][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Shipping - The report notes a positive atmosphere in the shipping industry due to ongoing China-US trade negotiations, which may favor container shipping. The report indicates that freight rates for the US East and West routes have seen increases of 6.3% and 11.2% respectively [11][12]. - It highlights the potential for increased market share for Chinese shipowners in relevant shipping routes in the medium to long term [17]. 2. Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a significant increase in truck traffic, with 58.12 million vehicles recorded, a 24.7% increase week-on-week. National railway freight volume also increased by 2.3% [18][19]. - The report suggests that leading highway stocks are showing signs of recovery, and it recommends focusing on the potential for dividend stocks in the infrastructure sector [20]. 3. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery in pricing, with a 12.7% year-on-year increase in business volume in September, totaling 16.88 billion packages. The report notes that major express companies are seeing a trend of rising prices [21][22]. - The report highlights the impact of "anti-involution" policies that are easing price competition and improving valuations in the industry [22]. 4. Aviation - The report indicates a 5% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in the civil aviation sector, with domestic ticket prices also showing improvement. The average daily utilization of aircraft has increased by 1.3% year-on-year [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policies and their effects on industry valuations and supply-demand dynamics [24]. 5. Logistics - The report tracks the daily traffic at the Ganqimaodu port, which averaged about 1,031 vehicles, reflecting an 8% increase week-on-week. The average short-haul freight rate has also risen [25][81]. - It notes a 6.9% week-on-week increase in the Shanghai outbound air freight price index, indicating a recovery in logistics pricing [25][86].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 白酒批价震荡，推荐大众品结构性成长 食品饮料行业周报（10.26） 消费品/食品饮料 本周茅台集团换帅，贵州省能源局局长陈华接任茅台集团董事长，其到来有望 强化集团与政府的协同。之于股份公司，新领导预计接棒落实 2025 年既定目 标，为全省经济发展多作贡献。我们认为，近期临近双十一大促及年底回款、 预计短期批价仍有扰动，但中期展望，产业出清、需求激发、批价企稳是积极 的信号，板块买点可能在年底出现。大众品板块，东鹏三季报利润超预期、基 本盘稳增叠加第二曲线继续扩张有望助力公司延续高速增长。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：茅台集团换帅，东鹏三季报超预期。 贵州茅台：茅台集团宣布重大人事调整，贵州省能源局局长陈华接任董事 长。10 月 25 日，茅台集团召开大会宣布重大人事调整，张德芹不再担任 茅台集团董事长职务，陈华接任茅台集团董事长。 金徽酒：Q3 经营质量稳健，税率上升影响净利。25Q3 公司收入/归母净 利润同比分别-4.9%/-33.0%，经营具备相对韧性，收入符合预期，利润受 所得税率上升拖累。百元以下产品受益于大众消费，动销增长较好，中档 产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a strong recommendation for several companies in the military industry, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [9]. Core Insights - The recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized new goals for national defense capabilities, including the enhancement of "national defense strength" and "international influence" [21]. - The report highlights the aerospace sector as a key focus area for military investment, particularly in the context of the newly stated goal of becoming a "space power" [21]. - Upcoming quarterly reports are expected to show a turning point in industry performance, with several companies already reporting significant year-on-year revenue and profit growth [24]. Industry Overview - The military industry consists of 118 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 2,092.9 billion and a circulating market value of 1,736.7 billion [4]. - The SW National Defense and Military Industry Index has shown a performance increase of 16.47% year-to-date, although it has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 Index by 1.97% [12][20]. - The industry is currently valued at a PE (TTM) of 85.77 times, with a five-year percentile of 78.63% [20]. Key Events - The Fourth Plenary Session concluded with new national defense goals, including a focus on high-quality military modernization and the integration of advanced combat capabilities [21]. - The report notes that the aerospace equipment sector has been particularly responsive to the recent policy announcements, showing strong performance [16][21]. Performance Summary - The report identifies several companies with notable performance, including North Navigation with a revenue increase of 210% and a net profit increase of 268.8% [25]. - The top-performing stocks in the military sector include North Shares (+25.20%) and Feili Hua (+17.92%) [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 showed a revenue of 2.265 billion yuan, down 20.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 392 million yuan, down 45.69% year-on-year [1][7]. - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a significant drop in orders for photovoltaic vacuum pumps, which has affected capacity utilization and profitability [7]. - There are signs that the demand for photovoltaic vacuum pumps may have bottomed out, with expectations for recovery in the future [7]. - The company is actively positioning itself in the AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) business, which is anticipated to drive future growth [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 3.852 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%, followed by a decline of 5% in 2024 and a further decline of 19% in 2025 [2][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 865 million yuan in 2023, with a growth of 34%, and a projected decline of 41% in 2025 [2][12]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 15.7 in 2023, increasing to 26.6 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation despite declining profits [2][13]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 34.90% and a net margin of 17.35% for the first three quarters of the year, both showing declines compared to the previous year [7]. - The cash flow situation is healthy, with a cash collection rate of 91.52% of revenue and a net operating cash flow of 1.54 times the net profit [7]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 30.0%, indicating a relatively low level of debt [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3][5] Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of 6.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%, and a net profit of 1.39 billion yuan, up 41.9% year-on-year, indicating strong performance exceeding expectations [1][2][3] - The strong sales of the "Bup Shui La" product line, particularly in North China and Southwest regions, contributed significantly to the revenue growth [2][3] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 8.78, 10.91, and 12.71 yuan respectively, reflecting continued growth potential [3][5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 16.84 billion yuan, a 34.1% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 3.76 billion yuan, up 38.9% [2][4] - The Q3 gross margin was reported at 45.2%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 1.8 percentage points to 22.7% [3][4] - Cash flow from operations for Q3 was 1.39 billion yuan, reflecting an 81.3% increase year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [2][3] Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 19.4%, 134.7%, and 76.5% respectively [2][3] - The company saw significant growth in the Southwest and North China regions, with year-on-year revenue increases of 48.9% and 72.9% respectively [2][3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its high growth momentum, supported by ongoing expansion of its distribution network and product lines [3][5] - The report anticipates stable growth in the company's fundamentals, with projections for revenue growth of 33% in 2025 and 22% in 2026 [4][17]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 26 日 中炬高新（600872.SH） 持续调整，静待反转 消费品/食品饮料 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《中炬高新（600872）—承压发展， 期待新管理改善》2025-09-04 2、《中炬高新（600872）—Q1 承压 发展，期待改革加速》2025-04-30 3、《中炬高新（600872）—美味鲜稳 健收官，期待改革动能释放》 2025-04-12 陈书慧 S1090523010003 chenshuhui@cmschina.com.cn 任龙 S1090522090003 renlong1@cmschina.com.cn 美味鲜 25Q3 收入/归母净利润分别同比-19.37%/-41.93%，持续调整业绩压力 仍存。Q3 公司重视价盘维护与渠道库存健康，业绩仍处于调整期。利润端毛利 率延续改善趋势，但费用投入增加导致盈利能力承压。展望明年，公司新管理 层有望继续推进改革，并加大并购与渠道拓展，期待公司加速改革节奏，走出 低谷逐步改善。考虑到前三季度经营压力，我们调整 25-26 年公司 eps 分别为 0.76、0.88 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year in Q3 2025, significantly exceeding previous expectations of 154.2% [1]. - Revenue from China is projected to grow by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue is expected to increase by 365%-370% [1]. - The report highlights strong performance across various channels, with notable growth in both offline and online sales in China [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 63.3 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2025 to 2027 [9]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to grow to 22.2 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24% [9]. - The adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decline from 21.0x in 2025 to 12.6x in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [9][10]. Performance Metrics - The company has shown a significant increase in gross margin, expected to reach 72.4% by 2027 [10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 40.9% in 2027, demonstrating strong profitability [10]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 18.7% by 2027, indicating low financial leverage [10]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has expanded its store count to 542 in mainland China, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [7]. - The overseas market has also seen substantial growth, with a 1265%-1270% increase in the Americas and 735%-740% in Europe and other regions [7]. - New product launches have been successful, with popular items selling out on the first day of release [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company has shown robust performance with a year-on-year revenue growth of 17.30% and a net profit growth of 15.24% in Q3 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][6] - The upcoming implementation of new national standards is expected to enhance industry concentration, benefiting the company as a market leader [1][6] - The launch of the high-end sub-brand "Zero" is anticipated to further solidify the company's position in the mid-to-high-end market segment [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.062 billion and a net profit of 0.695 billion, with a year-to-date revenue of 21.093 billion and a net profit of 1.907 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.78% [6][8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 18.00%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product mix optimization [6][8] - The company’s operating profit for 2023 is projected at 2.194 billion, with a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, but expected to grow by 17% in 2025 [2][9] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 24.860 billion, 27.648 billion, and 32.802 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 2.311 billion, 2.545 billion, and 3.046 billion [2][8] - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 15.3 in 2023 to 9.5 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over the forecast period [2][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as an industry leader and is expected to benefit significantly from the new national standards, which will likely lead to the exit of mid-tier brands and improve overall supply conditions in the industry [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the transition to new standards and its impact on market dynamics [1][6]

——风格轮动策略周报 20251024 在《如何从赔率和胜率看成长/价值轮动》报告中，我们创新性地提出了基于 赔率和胜率的投资期望结合方式，为应对价值成长风格切换问题提供了定量模 型解决方案。后续，我们将持续在样本外进行跟踪并做定期汇报。 上周全市场成长风格组合收益 4.58%，而全市场价值风格组合收益为 2.24%。 1、赔率 在前述报告中，我们已经进行了验证，即市场风格相应的相对估值水平 是其预期赔率的关键影响因素，并且两者应该呈现出负相关。由于存在上述 线性关系，我们根据最新的估值差分位数，可推得当下成长风格的赔率估计 为 1.08，价值风格的赔率估计为 1.12。 证券研究报告 | 金融工程报告 2025 年 10 月 26 日 当下价值/成长的赔率和胜率几何？ 2、胜率 在七个胜率指标中，当前有 5 个指向成长，2 个指向价值。根据映射方 案，当下成长风格的胜率为 63.24%，价值风格的胜率为 36.76%。 3、最新推荐风格：成长 根据公式，投资期望=胜率*赔率-（1-胜率）。我们计算得最新的成长风格 投资期望为 0.32，价值风格的投资期望为-0.22，因此最新一期的风格轮动模 型推荐为成长风 ...