Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Hisense Home Appliances, Supor, and others [2]. Core Insights - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is expected to benefit companies with production capacity in Vietnam, as tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US have significantly decreased from 46% to 20% [1]. - The US labor market data indicates a mixed outlook, with a decrease in ADP employment numbers and a slight drop in the unemployment rate, which may increase the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]. Industry Scale - The home appliance industry consists of 88 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,835.5 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,748.9 billion [3]. Key Company Financials - Midea Group: Market Cap 563.3 billion, 2024 EPS 5.03, 2025 EPS 5.61, 2025 PE 13.1, PB 2.5, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Gree Electric Appliances: Market Cap 261.8 billion, 2024 EPS 5.75, 2025 EPS 6.25, 2025 PE 7.5, PB 1.8, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Hisense Home Appliances: Market Cap 36.5 billion, 2024 EPS 2.42, 2025 EPS 2.71, 2025 PE 9.7, PB 2.2, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Supor: Market Cap 42.0 billion, 2024 EPS 2.80, 2025 EPS 3.03, 2025 PE 17.3, PB 6.1, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Other companies such as Zhaochi Co., Juxing Technology, and Stone Technology also received a "Strongly Recommended" rating [2]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the home appliance sector over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.9%, 10.1%, and 30.3% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [5]. - The relative performance against the benchmark index (CSI 300) is 2.0%, 4.6%, and 14.8% for the same periods [5]. Supply Chain and Production Insights - Major appliance manufacturers like Hisense and TCL are primarily sourcing from Mexico and Vietnam, mitigating tariff impacts [6]. - The shift in TV imports to the US shows that Vietnam's share has increased to 36%, while China's has decreased to 5% [8]. - Companies in the smart home sector, such as Stone Technology, are also benefiting from reduced uncertainties in supply chains due to the Vietnam agreement [6]. Future Outlook - The anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost demand in the tools market, with a 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [9][10]. - Companies are advised to focus on production in Vietnam to meet local origin requirements and capitalize on the upcoming peak season for orders [6].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 7 月 6 日 利率择时信号维持中性偏空 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20250704 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.64%，相对上周下降 0.29BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.51%、0.31%、0.01%， 从均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位较低、期限结构点位 偏低、凸性结构点位偏低的状态。 利率价量周期择时信号：中性偏空 - 利率数据的多周期择时信号为：长周期向上突破、中周期向下突破、 短周期向上突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突破 1 票、上行突破 2 票，由于 3 种周期下的同向突破票数总和未达到 2/3，最终信号的 综合评分结果为中性。 公募债基行为跟踪：久期提升、分歧微降 利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2023 年底以来，策略的短期年化收益率为 7.24%，最大回撤为 1.55%，收益回撤比为 6.21，相对业绩基准的超额收益率为 2.14%。 过去的 18 年内，策略逐年绝对收益大于 0 的胜率为 100%，逐年超 额收益大于 0 的胜率为 100%。 风险提示：本报告基于对历史数据的分析，当市场环境 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 反内卷成效将影响资产风格 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每月 国内方面， 1）6 月末至 7 月初高频数据有三点重要变化：上游沥青开工相对 强劲，其余数据继续放缓；半钢胎开工率大幅回落，尚不确定是反内卷的成 效、还是国补退坡叠加出口放缓预期的结果；一线城市二手房挂牌量价看似有 所企稳。2）财政端基调仍然积极，若经济下行节奏过快，有能力随时进行逆 周期调节。 海外方面，1）6 月非农数据显示劳动力市场仍在温和放缓，就业数据基本打 消 7 月降息预期。2）7 月 4 日美国总统特朗普签署大漂亮法案，法案 10 年增 加 4.1 万亿美元总赤字，比此前众议院版本多增赤 1 万亿美元。其中，26-28 年财政赤字率在 7%左右（明显高于 24-25 年）。 资产端：重申"强美股+弱美元"提振非美风险偏好、改善非美流动性。1）减 税法案落地、AI 产业趋势向好、贸易谈判推进均有助于继续支撑美股。同时， 美联储即将开启降息、欧洲即将结束降息和日本延续加息周期的相对变化还是 会削弱美元指数走势。2）回到国内， "强美股+弱美元"组合下，继续看多 国内权益资产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" investment rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [2][39]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets) both domestically and internationally, with a focus on the integration of these innovations into traditional finance, suggesting a potential global financial innovation cycle [5][27]. - The report emphasizes the continuous progress in the unmanned logistics sector, particularly through JD Logistics' introduction of self-developed unmanned vehicles and drones, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs significantly [19][21]. - The AI industry is witnessing ongoing developments, particularly in large model applications, with notable advancements from companies like Baidu and Microsoft, indicating a robust growth trajectory in AI-driven solutions across various sectors [23][24]. Summary by Sections RWA and Stablecoin Developments - The report details the launch of stock tokenization services by Robinhood and other platforms, allowing for trading of over 200 US stocks and ETFs with features like zero commission and low trading thresholds [9][11]. - Domestic interest in offshore RMB stablecoins is rising, with companies like JD and Ant Group advocating for regulatory approval to enhance RMB internationalization [14][15]. Unmanned Logistics Updates - JD Logistics has unveiled its self-developed unmanned light truck, capable of a 400 km range and L4 autonomous driving, which can reduce logistics costs by approximately 60% [19][21]. - The report also discusses the launch of JD's intelligent delivery vehicles and drones, designed for various logistics applications, showcasing significant technological advancements in the sector [21][22]. AI Industry Chain Updates - Baidu's release of the ERNIE 4.5 series models marks a significant step in AI model development, with open-source capabilities enhancing accessibility for developers [23]. - Microsoft's AI diagnostic tool demonstrates a fourfold improvement in disease diagnosis accuracy compared to human doctors, indicating the transformative potential of AI in healthcare [24]. Market Performance Review - The computer sector experienced a decline of 1.28% in the first week of July 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Xuanji Information and ST Saiwei [29][30].

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, while Vietnam maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods[9] - New unilateral tariffs may range from 10% to 70%, with implementation expected around August 1[6] - The U.S. is conducting a 232 investigation into sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which began in April, indicating potential short-term tariff risks[15] Group 2: Political Developments - Trump's position within the Republican Party has strengthened following a series of political successes since June, including the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court has supported Trump's executive powers, allowing him to pursue his policy agenda without significant judicial challenges[13] - The upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting and the BRICS+ summit are critical events to monitor for international economic discussions[3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Israel-Palestine conflict and U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a focus on potential ceasefire outcomes and nuclear discussions[16] - The U.S. aims to rebalance its relations with major powers, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which presents significant negotiation challenges[18] - The potential for a framework agreement in trade negotiations exists, but countries may shift conflicts to third parties to achieve short-term wins[12]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 美国虹吸继续，铜价短期波动放大 2、《金属行业周报—基本面宏观面 共振铜向上突破》2025-06-29 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 235 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4334.2 | 4.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4029.6 | 4.9 | 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 下周美国和中国之外关税 90 天豁免到期。宏观依然错综复杂。美元指数走强， 金属价格承压。下半年，我们预计金属市场步入全球宽松和金属价格受益进入 上行通道。黄金价格近期调整，但是长期看涨逻辑未变。资源股普遍低估值， 商品价格远期看好，关注低估值和成长性好的公司。此外，关注自主可控相关 以及时间友好的科技、机器人、可控核聚变等相关材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 10.0 19.5 36.4 相对表现 7.1 14.0 20.8 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for structural growth opportunities [20][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in the price of Moutai, suggesting a potential improvement in sentiment within the liquor sector. It notes that while short-term demand fluctuations may lead to a slowdown in the liquor sector in Q2 2025, leading companies are working to maintain price stability, and smaller companies are adapting to consumer trends [20][21]. - The snack segment is experiencing stable performance in traditional channels, with rapid growth in membership supermarket channels. New products are expected to be launched in the second half of 2025, and the pet food sector is also showing good growth [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product quality enhancement, channel expansion, and innovative marketing strategies as key methods for companies to navigate current market challenges [20][21]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Luzhou Laojiao is improving market inventory and plans to expand its distribution network to four million terminals over the next five years. The company is also developing lower-alcohol products [11][12]. - Yanghe Co. has appointed new leadership, which is expected to drive organizational adjustments and enhance operational dynamics. The company continues to innovate its product line [12]. - Jiugui Liquor is focusing on channel adjustments and has partnered with a retail chain to explore new growth avenues [13]. - New Dairy is benefiting from cost advantages, leading to stronger profit release capabilities, with a focus on low-temperature milk products [14]. - Jinzai Food is in a cautious operational phase, with stable performance in traditional and snack channels [15][16]. - Zhongchong Co. is seeing continued growth in its self-owned brands, despite some export challenges [17]. - Petty Co. is expanding its product offerings in both snacks and staple foods, with a focus on New Zealand's production capacity [18]. - Anji Food has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 2.302 billion HKD [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors influenced by changing consumer trends, with specific recommendations for companies like Zhongchong Co., Guobao Pet Food, and Nongfu Spring [21]. - It also highlights structural growth opportunities in the restaurant chain recovery, recommending companies such as Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer [21]. - For traditional consumer goods, it advises investing in leading liquor companies and dairy products, with a focus on companies like Yili and New Dairy [21]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is characterized by a total of 143 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 478.1 billion RMB [4]. - The industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 1-month absolute performance of -4.7% and a 12-month performance of 28.2% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry saw a slight increase of 0.2% from June 29 to July 5, with various new energy vehicle manufacturers reporting significant sales growth [1][22]. - Notable performances include Leap Motor's delivery of 48,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of over 138%, and Xiaopeng Motors' delivery of 35,000 units, a year-on-year surge of 224% [22]. - Changan Automobile plans to establish a factory in Europe to support its sales strategy, aiming to expand into at least 10 European markets by the end of 2025 [27]. - BYD launched its flagship luxury MPV, the M9, in Mexico, marking a significant step in its high-end new energy market strategy [23]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's overall market performance was positive, with secondary segments like motorcycles and commercial vehicles showing notable increases of 5.1% and 1.5%, respectively [11]. - The report highlights that the automotive industry has a total of 259 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 4,051.4 billion [4]. Company-Specific Developments - Leap Motor's June deliveries reached 48,000 units, while Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 53,000 units, and the Wanjie brand delivered 45,000 units [22]. - The report emphasizes the strong sales potential of models like the Changan S800, which achieved over 6,500 pre-orders in its first month [23]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, including BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [8]. Recent Vehicle Launches - Xiaopeng G7, a new AI smart family SUV, was launched with a price range of 195,800 to 225,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [26]. - The report also notes the upcoming launches of new models from various manufacturers, including the i8 from Ideal Motors and the B01 from Leap Motor [21].

2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 7 月 6 日 短期看好但估值压力渐显，低估板块或需接力 定期报告 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250706 1. 当前市场观察 1）一方面，本周 A 股交易量能得到维持且 Beta 离散度不高，表明市场情绪 向好且处于合理水平。具体来看，本周全市场日均成交额为 1.44 万亿，与上 周的 1.48 万亿基本持平，当前市场情绪整体向好。此外，Beta 离散度作为衡 量市场局部过热风险的指标，6 月值处于过去 5 年 40.68%的分位数水平，表 明当前市场不存在局部过热风险。 2）当前 A 股整体估值水平并不低，市场继续上涨或需低估板块接力。以当 前估值水平仍相对偏低的大盘风格为例，机构持仓占比是极为有效的中长期 同步指标。自去年下半年以来，虽然各路 ...

Group 1: OBBBA Overview - The OBBBA increases the baseline deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next 10 years, with total deficits reaching $4.1 trillion including $0.7 trillion in interest expenses[8] - The bill was passed by the House with a vote of 218 to 214 and signed by President Trump on July 4[4] - The overall debt ceiling is raised by $5 trillion, exceeding the House version by $1 trillion[8] Group 2: Economic Impact - OBBBA is expected to boost U.S. economic growth by 1.2% in 2026 and peak at 1.5% in 2028, but the long-term impact may be weaker than the 2017 tax cuts[22] - The projected deficit rate for the next three years is around 7%, significantly higher than the previous two years[14] - Short-term benefits from tax cuts favor middle-income earners, while long-term benefits are skewed towards high-income groups[28] Group 3: Tax and Spending Changes - The tax cuts include permanent provisions for individual income tax and corporate tax credits, with a total tax reduction of $4.5 trillion[18] - Significant spending cuts are planned, including $1.074 trillion from medical subsidies and $543 billion from clean energy subsidies over the next 10 years[22] - The bill also abolishes certain tax benefits from the Biden administration, including parts of the "Green New Deal" and some social welfare programs[19]