1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 人民币升值趋势叠加历年岁末年初是外资布局 A 股跨年行情的窗口，短期来看， 外资有望阶段性净流入贡献增量资金，外资的流入比较有利于 A 股的大盘风格。 从历史看，1 月融资资金往往在后半月转弱，保险资金多在年初净流入。整体来 看，1 月市场更可能呈现结构性增量资金流入的格局，有望助力 A 股延续上行 趋势，继续演绎春季攻势，风格层面推荐大盘风格。 定期报告 相关报告 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 历年 1 月各类资金变化特征及其影响如何？ ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0106） 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场SCP范式研究之一》，2017 年 10 月 3. 《A500 ETF 大量净流入，融资 规模延续上行——金融市场流动 性与监管动态周报（1230）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿 元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 100.40↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 368.77 ...

- The report discusses the construction of a "ROIC Model" for interest rate predictions. The model calculates the implied ROIC of the bond market and compares it with the equity market's ROIC to estimate the interest rate midpoint. The formula used is: $ ROIC = (Risk-free rate + Equity risk premium) × Equity proportion + (Risk-free rate + Credit risk premium) × Debt proportion $ Here, the risk-free rate is represented by the 30-year government bond yield, and the credit risk premium is derived from AAA corporate bond spreads. The model uses data from A-share listed companies (excluding financials) and large-scale industrial enterprises to calculate ROIC values. The results show a long-term downward trend in both equity and bond market ROICs, with equity ROIC consistently higher by an average of 50 basis points over the past decade[51][52][56] - The "Multi-cycle Interest Rate Timing Strategy" is introduced, which employs kernel regression algorithms to identify support and resistance levels in interest rate trends. This strategy is applied to 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields. The annualized returns for the strategy are 2.19%, 2.48%, and 3.26%, respectively, with maximum drawdowns of 0.72%, 0.97%, and 1.71%. The strategy demonstrates stable performance, with probabilities of achieving positive absolute and excess returns close to 100% since 2008[75][77][81] - A "Pure Bond CARRY Strategy" is also highlighted, which leverages dynamic leverage to enhance returns. The strategy allocates 140% to bonds when borrowing costs (R007) are below the 80th percentile of historical levels and 100% otherwise. Over the past decade, the strategy has delivered an annualized return of 5.56%, with a return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.92. In 2023-2025, the strategy achieved annual returns of 7.21%, 7.39%, and 2.25%, respectively, with excess returns of 84 basis points, 121 basis points, and 21 basis points[83][84][88] - The "Momentum and Fundamental Composite Factor" is used for sector rotation strategies. This factor combines "Net Profit Growth Rate (QoQ)" and "ROA TTM Growth Rate (QoQ)" to rank industries. Historical backtests from 2008 to 2025 show strong performance, with an average annualized return of 18.60% and an excess return of 8.49% over the benchmark. In 2025, industries such as electronics, computers, media, defense, non-ferrous metals, and new energy equipment ranked high in both valuation and fundamental improvement metrics, making them recommended sectors for Q1 2026[45][46][47] - The "PB-ROE Framework" is applied to identify undervalued industries. By comparing the PB and ROE levels of various sectors as of December 31, 2025, industries like non-bank financials, home appliances, agriculture, basic chemicals, and light manufacturing are identified as having relatively low PB but high ROE expectations. These sectors are considered undervalued and are recommended for investment in 2026[48][49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The year 2026 is projected to be a breakthrough year for the smart driving and robotaxi industries, with significant advancements expected [3]. - Nvidia's release of the open-source VLA (Vision-Language-Action) model, Alpamayo 1, is anticipated to catalyze developments in autonomous driving, with the first vehicle equipped with this model, the Mercedes CLA, expected to hit the roads in the U.S. in Q1 2026 [2]. - The report highlights the expected growth in the robotaxi sector, with Waymo projected to exceed 450,000 rides per week by 2025 and Tesla's robotaxi operations expanding significantly in Austin, which is expected to have a notable financial impact in the second half of 2026 [3]. - Regulatory advancements are also noted, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology granting L3 access licenses to two companies, and the Ministry of Public Security announcing the initiation of national standards for autonomous driving regulations [3]. Industry Overview - The automotive industry comprises 267 companies, with a total market capitalization of 4,785.2 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 4,146.4 billion [5]. - The industry has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 8.0% over one month, 26.4% over six months, and 54.0% over twelve months [7]. - Relative performance against the benchmark has also been positive, with 5.1% over one month, 7.9% over six months, and 29.0% over twelve months [7]. Related Companies - Key players in the industry include Bertel, Nexteer, Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame, Desay SV, and others involved in various aspects of smart driving technology and robotaxi operations [4].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 01 月 06 日 三大 ESG 选股策略组合 2025 年均取得正超额收益 ESG 选股策略 2026 年 1 月定期跟踪报告 ❑ 在当前传统基本面因子日渐拥挤的环境下，作为近年备受关注的一种另类因 子，ESG 因子能够从非基本面的角度评价上市公司在环境、社会、治理三方面 的综合表现，有望成为 A 股市场新的 Alpha 来源； 风险提示：本报告结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境 发生变化时模型存在失效的风险；本报告所提及个股仅表示与相关主题有一定关 联性，不构成任何投资建议。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 麦元勋 S1090519090003 maiyuanxun@cmschina.com.cn 李世杰 S1090524070006 lishijie1@cmschina.com.cn ❑ 根据我们过去的研究，ESG 评价得分能够通过改善上市公司盈利现金流、特质 性风险以及资本成本三条路径，对股票未来估值产生显著的正向影响； ❑ 基于 ESG 综合评价指标，招商证券量化研究团队在沪深 300、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The Vera Rubin platform has officially entered mass production, featuring a comprehensive upgrade of six types of chips, including the Vera CPU and Rubin GPU, which significantly enhance performance metrics [1][2]. - The Rubin computing board adopts a cable-free design and introduces a new storage rack to meet the high memory demands of large models, resulting in a 5x increase in peak inference performance and a 3.5x increase in training performance [2]. - The launch of the Alpamayo model marks a significant transition in autonomous driving technology, integrating multi-model and multi-modal systems to enhance reasoning capabilities, with plans for deployment in major markets [3]. Industry Scale - The industry comprises 518 stocks, with a total market capitalization of 14,374 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 12,340.1 billion [4]. Industry Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 9.3%, 38.5%, and 58.0% respectively, while the relative performance is 6.4%, 20.1%, and 33.0% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on NVIDIA and its supply chain, including components related to system assembly, GPU, CPU, storage, high-speed connectors, and various auxiliary chips, as well as domestic computing power manufacturers and advanced manufacturing opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for leading internet companies in the AI sector, such as Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Meitu [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerated iteration of various AI applications and edge-side developments, emphasizing the strong performance of companies with leading positions in the AI field [1]. - It notes significant upcoming IPOs, including Zhihua Technology and MiniMax, which are expected to enhance the AI application ecosystem [8]. - The report provides a detailed overview of the market performance, indicating a mixed performance across different indices, with the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rising by 4.96% [14][20]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 160 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,944.9 billion [4]. - The report indicates a total circulating market value of about 1,790.1 billion [4]. - The absolute performance over the last month shows a decline of 2.0%, while the 6-month and 12-month performances are up by 11.3% and 16.4%, respectively [6]. Company Performance - Tencent Holdings saw a weekly increase of 3.32%, while Bilibili-W and Kuaishou-W increased by 4.28% and 2.55%, respectively [20]. - The report emphasizes Tencent's strong revenue growth in various segments, including gaming, social networking, and marketing services, with a notable increase in adjusted net profit [22][23]. - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics improved, with DAU and MAU reaching 4.16 billion and 7.3 billion, respectively, indicating a 2.1% and 2.4% year-on-year growth [23]. - Bilibili's advertising revenue grew by 23% year-on-year, driven by improved ad supply and effectiveness [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 1.1 to 1.6 billion yuan in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 127% to 230% [1][7]. - The company has established itself as a leader in the electrolyte, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and LiFSI markets, with a strong integrated supply chain that enhances its competitive advantage [1][11]. - The recent surge in prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and other raw materials has positively impacted the company's profitability, indicating a significant earnings rebound [1][28]. - The company is actively expanding its lithium battery materials platform, with a focus on solid-state battery materials and iron-lithium cathodes, which are expected to enhance its market position [1][34]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company forecasts total revenue of 16.76 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 33.9% [48]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is approximately 1.35 billion yuan, with a significant increase in profitability expected in subsequent years [48]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 94.2 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 69.7 billion yuan [3]. Business Performance - In Q4 2025, the company anticipates an electrolyte shipment volume of about 220,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38% [8]. - The profitability of the electrolyte business is expected to improve significantly, with estimated profits per ton reaching approximately 4,000 yuan, a substantial increase from previous quarters [8][28]. - The company has secured long-term supply agreements with major clients, including CATL and Tesla, ensuring stable demand for its products [12][47]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the successful transmission of price increases from lithium hexafluorophosphate to electrolyte products, indicating a robust pricing mechanism within the supply chain [28]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for lithium battery materials, driven by the growth of the electric vehicle market and energy storage solutions [1][47]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on the development of solid-state electrolytes, with ongoing innovations aimed at improving product performance and reducing costs [34][45]. - The integration of upstream resources and recycling capabilities is expected to further enhance the company's cost advantages and sustainability efforts [11][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The travel demand is showing steady improvement, with significant growth in duty-free sales, outbound tourism, and scenic area performance during the New Year's holiday period [1][2]. - Domestic tourism during the New Year's holiday reached 142 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with total tourism revenue of 84.79 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the outbound tourism sector, which continues to lead overall growth, and recommends focusing on online travel agencies (OTAs) and regional scenic spots that benefit from external transportation conditions and internal optimization [1][2]. Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Domestic tourism during the New Year's holiday saw 142 million trips, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with daily average trips of approximately 47 million, also up 5.1% [2]. - Total tourism revenue reached 84.79 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year increase, with per capita spending at 597.11 yuan, a slight increase of 1.1% [2]. Transportation - Daily average cross-regional personnel flow increased by 19.5% year-on-year, with railway and civil aviation passenger volumes growing by 9% and 13% respectively [3]. - During the holiday, a total of 5.9 billion people traveled, with significant increases in railway and highway travel [3]. Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales in Hainan saw a remarkable 50% increase compared to 2024, with shopping amounts reaching 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase [4]. Scenic Areas - Scenic areas experienced significant growth in visitor numbers, with notable increases in places like Changbai Mountain and Jiuzhaigou, where visitor numbers grew by 40.77% and 224% respectively [10]. - High-profile tourist cities like Beijing and Shanghai reported substantial increases in visitor numbers and tourism revenue during the holiday [11][12]. OTA Performance - The report indicates a surge in demand for travel products, with significant increases in hotel and flight bookings, particularly among younger travelers [15][17]. - The "please 3 days off and 8 days on" trend has driven long-distance travel, with a notable rise in outbound tourism bookings [17][19]. Inbound and Outbound Travel - Inbound and outbound travel showed better-than-expected performance, with a total of 6.615 million people traveling across borders, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.7% [20][21].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" investment rating for the express logistics industry, highlighting the expected orderly competition and gradual optimization of the competitive landscape [1] - The express logistics sector is projected to benefit from the growth of e-commerce and reverse logistics, with a significant increase in business volume and revenue in 2025 [7][12] - The average price in the express industry has shown signs of recovery due to anti-involution policies, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in prices [18][24] Group 2: Industry Overview - In 2025, the total express business volume reached 180.74 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, while total revenue was 1,355.06 billion yuan, up 7.1% [7][12] - The growth in express logistics is attributed to the expansion of e-commerce into lower-tier markets and the increasing demand for reverse logistics [12][14] - The average price per package has decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of low-cost e-commerce and live-streaming sales [12][14] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major companies like SF Express and YTO Express have seen an increase in market share, with SF Express's market share rising by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [24][31] - The competitive dynamics have shifted, with leading companies maintaining growth while smaller firms face pressure to adapt to pricing strategies [24][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of head companies having stable cash flows and low debt levels, positioning them as quasi-dividend stocks [8][12] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the express logistics industry is currently undervalued, with expectations for improved profitability as competition stabilizes and pricing levels stabilize [7][12] - Key investment targets include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, which are expected to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [7][12] - The cross-border logistics segment is also highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in Southeast Asia and emerging markets, driven by the expansion of e-commerce [7][12]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 1-12 月累计拿地均价同比增幅收窄 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 31 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 31 日） | 新房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 31 日） | 二手房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 31 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | | 样本城市 | -23% | -收窄 | +12 PCT | 样本城市 | -25% | -扩大 | -10 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -30% | -收窄 | +11 PCT | 一线城市 | -26% | -扩大 | -1 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） ...