Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry saw a slight increase of 0.2% from June 29 to July 5, with various new energy vehicle manufacturers reporting significant sales growth [1][22]. - Notable performances include Leap Motor's delivery of 48,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of over 138%, and Xiaopeng Motors' delivery of 35,000 units, a year-on-year surge of 224% [22]. - Changan Automobile plans to establish a factory in Europe to support its sales strategy, aiming to expand into at least 10 European markets by the end of 2025 [27]. - BYD launched its flagship luxury MPV, the M9, in Mexico, marking a significant step in its high-end new energy market strategy [23]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's overall market performance was positive, with secondary segments like motorcycles and commercial vehicles showing notable increases of 5.1% and 1.5%, respectively [11]. - The report highlights that the automotive industry has a total of 259 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 4,051.4 billion [4]. Company-Specific Developments - Leap Motor's June deliveries reached 48,000 units, while Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 53,000 units, and the Wanjie brand delivered 45,000 units [22]. - The report emphasizes the strong sales potential of models like the Changan S800, which achieved over 6,500 pre-orders in its first month [23]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, including BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [8]. Recent Vehicle Launches - Xiaopeng G7, a new AI smart family SUV, was launched with a price range of 195,800 to 225,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [26]. - The report also notes the upcoming launches of new models from various manufacturers, including the i8 from Ideal Motors and the B01 from Leap Motor [21].

2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 7 月 6 日 短期看好但估值压力渐显，低估板块或需接力 定期报告 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250706 1. 当前市场观察 1）一方面，本周 A 股交易量能得到维持且 Beta 离散度不高，表明市场情绪 向好且处于合理水平。具体来看，本周全市场日均成交额为 1.44 万亿，与上 周的 1.48 万亿基本持平，当前市场情绪整体向好。此外，Beta 离散度作为衡 量市场局部过热风险的指标，6 月值处于过去 5 年 40.68%的分位数水平，表 明当前市场不存在局部过热风险。 2）当前 A 股整体估值水平并不低，市场继续上涨或需低估板块接力。以当 前估值水平仍相对偏低的大盘风格为例，机构持仓占比是极为有效的中长期 同步指标。自去年下半年以来，虽然各路 ...

Group 1: OBBBA Overview - The OBBBA increases the baseline deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next 10 years, with total deficits reaching $4.1 trillion including $0.7 trillion in interest expenses[8] - The bill was passed by the House with a vote of 218 to 214 and signed by President Trump on July 4[4] - The overall debt ceiling is raised by $5 trillion, exceeding the House version by $1 trillion[8] Group 2: Economic Impact - OBBBA is expected to boost U.S. economic growth by 1.2% in 2026 and peak at 1.5% in 2028, but the long-term impact may be weaker than the 2017 tax cuts[22] - The projected deficit rate for the next three years is around 7%, significantly higher than the previous two years[14] - Short-term benefits from tax cuts favor middle-income earners, while long-term benefits are skewed towards high-income groups[28] Group 3: Tax and Spending Changes - The tax cuts include permanent provisions for individual income tax and corporate tax credits, with a total tax reduction of $4.5 trillion[18] - Significant spending cuts are planned, including $1.074 trillion from medical subsidies and $543 billion from clean energy subsidies over the next 10 years[22] - The bill also abolishes certain tax benefits from the Biden administration, including parts of the "Green New Deal" and some social welfare programs[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Yutong Bus [3][5]. Core Views - Yutong Bus has shown significant growth in June sales, with a total of 5,919 vehicles sold, representing a 24.8% increase year-on-year. Cumulative sales for the first half of 2025 reached 21,321 vehicles, up 3.7% [1]. - The domestic market is benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy in the public transport sector, which has increased subsidies for replacing old electric buses to 80,000 yuan per vehicle, further driving demand [1]. - The company has made substantial inroads into overseas markets, with total sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles in Central Asia and nearly 6,000 units in Europe, supported by strong technological capabilities and after-sales service [2]. - Yutong Bus is optimizing its product layout in line with industry trends, focusing on electrification, intelligent connectivity, and high-end products, which positions the company well for future growth [2]. Financial Summary - The projected net profits for Yutong Bus from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.691 billion yuan, 5.274 billion yuan, and 6.069 billion yuan respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][4]. - The total revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 42.614 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15% [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 32.0% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [14].

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 07 月 05 日 港股创新药 ETF 领涨，资金大幅流入公司债 ETF ETF 基金周度跟踪（0630-0704） 本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（6 月 30 日-7 月 4 日）主投 A 股的 ETF 多数上涨。其中，医药生物 ETF 涨幅最大，规模以上基金平均上涨 3.11%。相反，TMT ETF 出现下跌， 规模以上基金平均下跌 0.19%。 ❑ 资金流动： 一、ETF 市场整体表现 市场表现方面，本周（6 月 30 日-7 月 4 日）主投 A 股的 ETF 多数上涨。其中， 医药生物 ETF 涨幅最大，规模以上基金平均上涨 3.11%。相反，TMT ETF 出现 下跌，规模以上基金平均下跌 0.19%。 图 1：ETF 基金-市场表现 资金流动方面，资金继续大幅流入债券 ETF，全周资金净流入 112.99 亿元。相 反，大盘指数 ETF 出现大幅资金流出，全周资金净流出 195.6 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 07 月 05 日 本周防御风格显著，招商量化五大指增组合均取得正超额 ——因子周报 20250704 金融工程 1. 主要市场指数与风格表现回顾 本周主要宽基指数绝大部分上涨。沪深 300 上涨 1.54%，创业板指上涨 1.50%，上证指数上涨 1.40%，中证 800 上涨 1.35%，深证成指上涨 1.25%， 中证 500 上涨 0.81%，中证 2000 上涨 0.59%，中证 1000 上涨 0.56%，北证 50 下跌 1.71%。 从行业来看，钢铁、银行、建材、医药、电力设备及新能源等行业表现居前； 综合金融、计算机、综合、交通运输、通信等行业表现居后。 从风格因子来看，最近一周 Beta 因子、波动性因子、估值因子的表现尤为 突出。因子多空收益分别为-2.89%、-2.31%和 1.90%。 2. 选股因子表现跟踪 沪深 300 股票池中，本周单季度 EP、BP、EP_TTM 因子表现较好。中证 500 股票池中，本周单季度 ROE、单季度 ROE 同比、EP_TTM 因子表现较好。 中证 800 股票池中，本周单季度 ROE、单季度 EP、BP ...

证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025年07月04日 | 招商证券 总量的视野 | 推荐(维持) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话会议纪要 | 研究部/总量研究 | | | | 宏观:2025年海外宏观中期展望;策略:A股七月观点及配置建议;固收:寻 | 行业规模 | | | | 找占优策略-25年下半年债市展望;银行:不疾而速-2025年银行半年策略;地 | | | 占比% | | 产:高频数据更新及最新观点;资产配置:中期大类资产与机构行为展望。 | 股票家数(只) | 388 | 7.6 | | | 总市值(十亿元) | 19941.3 | 22.2 | | □ 【宏观-王沂宾】:2025年海外宏观中期展望 | 流通市值(十亿元) | 18926.7 | 23.2 | | 在经历 H1 美国政策的大起大落后,Q3 或许能看到美国贸易政策、财政政策、 | 行业指数 | | | | 货币政策逐渐明朗。但由于特朗普政策的高度不确定性,也难以排除小概率 % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | 极端情形的发生。1)年内贸易政策或向整体缓和、局部加码方向演进;2) | 绝对 ...

基金业绩比较基准研究系列：美国主动型基金 基金业绩比较基准系列之三 2025 年 5 月 7 日，证监会正式发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》， 围绕公募基金的业绩比较基准提出了多项举措，包括将基金的浮动管理费和基 金公司相关人员薪酬与业绩比较基准挂钩、强化对基金公司选用业绩比较基准 的严格监管等。在方案落地之初，我们可以借鉴发展时间长、资金体量大的海 外资管市场对于公募基金业绩比较基准的政策与市场状况。我们之前针对国内 权益型和债券型基金推出了基金业绩比较基准研究系列报告第一和第二篇，本 文作为该系列的第三篇，将对美国主动基金的业绩比较基准的监管政策与基准 选择进行详细分析。 证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 7 月 4 日 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 江帆 研究助理 jiangfan3@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 美国主动基金业绩比较基准概况：政策上， SEC 确定了宽基为主，窄基 为辅的业绩比较基准设立要求，当前美国主动型共同基金以股票型基金为 主，单基准是基金主要使用的基准类型。目前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to market benchmarks [2][6]. Core Insights - The life insurance sector is experiencing significant premium growth, particularly in life insurance, while health and accident insurance face short-term pressures. In the first five months of 2025, life insurance premium income reached 18,735 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [5][7]. - Property insurance companies are seeing stable growth in auto insurance premiums, with a total premium income of 3,720 billion for auto insurance, reflecting a 4.4% increase year-on-year. Non-auto insurance is also expected to improve in profitability [5][7]. - Overall, the insurance industry reported a cumulative premium income of 30,602 billion, up 3.8% year-on-year, with a notable monthly increase of 13.2% in May [5][7]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance Companies - Cumulative premium income for life insurance companies was 22,797 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%. In May alone, premium income was 3,328 billion, marking a 16.6% increase [5][7]. - Life insurance premiums specifically reached 2,674 billion in May, showing a robust year-on-year growth of 24.1% [5][7]. - Health insurance premiums decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, while accident insurance premiums fell by 8.5% [5][7]. Property Insurance Companies - Cumulative premium income for property insurance companies was 7,805 billion, with a stable year-on-year growth of 5.2% [5][7]. - Auto insurance premiums totaled 3,720 billion, with a 4.4% increase year-on-year, benefiting from government policies and rising penetration of new energy vehicles [5][7]. - Non-auto insurance premiums reached 4,085 billion, up 6.0% year-on-year, driven by growth in health and accident insurance [5][7]. Overall Industry Performance - The insurance industry as a whole saw a cumulative premium income of 30,602 billion, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year increase [5][7]. - Total assets in the insurance industry reached 384,239 billion, up 7.0% since the beginning of the year, while net assets increased by 8.3% to 36,023 billion [5][7].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 04 日 招商证券 | 总量的视野 电话会议纪要 研究部/总量研究 宏观：2025 年海外宏观中期展望；策略：A 股七月观点及配置建议；固收：寻 找占优策略-25 年下半年债市展望；银行：不疾而速-2025 年银行半年策略；地 产：高频数据更新及最新观点；资产配置：中期大类资产与机构行为展望。 ❑ 【宏观-王泺宾】：2025 年海外宏观中期展望 在经历 H1 美国政策的大起大落后，Q3 或许能看到美国贸易政策、财政政策、 货币政策逐渐明朗。但由于特朗普政策的高度不确定性，也难以排除小概率 极端情形的发生。1）年内贸易政策或向整体缓和、局部加码方向演进；2） 新版预算协调法案或于 Q3 前落地，最快 7 月；3）未来几个月货币政策可能 不是重点，关注 9 月 FOMC 及以后的降息指引。 基钦周期：Q2 起美国转入主动去库。中美关税冲击类似疫情，对贸易关系的 实际冲击可能是永久性的。由于中美企业均已对未来关税上升的前景有了充 分预期，除部分替代性较低的商品外，后续关税调整大概率不再引发美国企 业的大规模补库行为。往后看，尽管关税因素仍有不确定性，但补库透支 ...