证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 谷歌 I/O 大会跟踪，重点关注大模型多模态能力提升 计算机周观察 20250525 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 5 月 21 日，谷歌发布以人工智能为核心的一系列重大更新，其中 AI 搜索引擎 和多模态大模型亮眼，国内昆仑万维于 5 月 22 日发布天工超级智能体，聚焦于 生产力场景。大模型多模态能力持续提升，建议关注。 ❑ 风险提示：贸易摩擦持续升级；供应链风险；行业竞争加剧风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 284 | 5.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3281.4 | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2864.2 | 3.7 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.0 -3.7 34.5 相对表现 -3.5 -4.1 27.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 May/24 Sep/24 Jan/25 Apr/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《从科技龙头厂商财报看 AI 产业 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 5 月 25 日 市场震荡回调，继续维持观望 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250525 1. 当前市场观察 ❑ 本周市场整体震荡下行，大盘价值风格占优。具体来看，万得全 A 指数下跌 约 0.63%，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 1000 分别下跌约 0.12%、0.12%、 1.22%，国证成长指数下跌约 0.70%，国证价值指数上涨约 0.13%。 ❑ 短期我们认为仍需保持观望，除了交易情绪并未明显修复、基本面指标仍有 待观察外，周内关税风险再度上升压制市场表现。 1）交易情绪仍待改善。本周交易量能指标分位数从上周的 28.62%进一步下 降至 23.41%，当前仍处于偏弱区间。此外，前两周市场连续周内高开但后续 走势偏弱，历史相同情况发生后，万得全 A 指数 20 日平均收益率为-1.31% 且胜率仅为 39.13%。二者都表明当前市场的交易情绪或仍待改善。 3）关税风险仍有反复。本周下半周全球关税风险再度上升，考虑到美方的 善变和不确定性，当前市场更倾向于交易波动而非趋势。在内外部环境未有 明确的变化方向之前，市场或仍将维持震荡行情。 2. 市场最新观 ...

汽车行业周报 小米 YU7 正式发布，比亚迪欧洲销量首超特斯拉 中游制造/汽车 5 月 18 日至 5 月 24 日，汽车行业整体上涨 1.8%。本周，小米 YU7 正式发布， 全系标配激光雷达、4D 毫米波雷达及 7 颗超透防眩摄像头，支持高阶辅助驾驶 功能，预计将于 7 月正式上市。比亚迪在欧洲的电动汽车销量首次超过特斯拉， 据市场数据，比亚迪4月在欧洲的纯电动汽车销量达到7231辆，同比增长169%， 跃居欧洲电动汽车销量榜前十；相比之下，特斯拉 4 月份在欧洲的新车注册量 则同比下跌 49%至 7165 辆。 ❑ 市场板块行情回顾 本周 CS 汽车+1.8%。本周（5 月 18 日至 5 月 24 日，下同）上证 A 指涨跌 幅为-0.6%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为-0.7%，创业板涨跌幅为-0.9%。本周各行业 板块部分上涨，其中涨幅居前的行业板块为 CS 综合（+1.9%）、CS 医药 （+1.9%）和 CS 汽车（+1.8%），跌幅居前的板块为 CS 综合金融 （-4.8%）、CS 计算机（-3.0%）和 CS 电子（-2.1%）。 ❑ 个股行情回顾 汽车板块个股：本周，汽车板块个股下跌居多。其中， ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 5 月 25 日 利率择时信号维持看空 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20250523 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.72%，相对上周升高 4.15BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.58%、0.27%、-0.04%， 从均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位较低、期限结构点位 较低、凸性结构点位较低的状态。 利率价量周期择时信号：看空 - 利率数据的多周期择时信号为：长周期无信号、中周期向上突破、 短周期向上突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突破 0 票、上行突破 2 票，由于 3 种周期下的同向突破总得票数达到 2/3，最终信号的综 合评分结果为看空。 公募债基行为跟踪：久期微降、分歧微降 利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2023 年底以来，策略的短期年化收益率为 7.5%，最大回撤为 1.61%，收益回撤比为 6.43，相对业绩基准的超额收益率为 2.35%。 过去的 18 年内，策略逐年绝对收益大于 0 的胜率为 100%，逐年超 额收益大于 0 的胜率为 100%。 - 公募基金最新久期（计入杠杆后）中位数读数为 3.09 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 销售市场热度延续低位震荡，竣工同比结束阶段性回升 房地产行业最新观点及 25 年 1-4 月数据深度解读 总量研究/房地产 4 月新开工面积基期调整同比增速为-22.1%（较上月减少 4.0pct），根据拿 地对新开工的领先关系，维持判断"新开工跌幅或在 25 年上半年呈逐步收窄 趋势"；中期角度，若总购房需求在净租金回报率与贷款利率差收窄之下逐 步企稳，新开工或在房企"以销定投"的持续策略下呈现紧平衡状态； 4 月房地产开发投资金额基期调整同比增速为-11.3%（较上月减少 1.3pct）， 投资同比同步于施工面积同比回落，过去一段时间销售市场热度回升带动下 的施工强度提升或相对有限，或反映去库存仍是房企的重要目标； ❑ 4 月到位资金基期调整同比增速为-5.3%（较上月减少 1.5pct），结构上，"国 内贷款"同比增速持续高于"新开工"或与"白名单"融资模式下部分房企 借新还旧以及调整融资渠道等有关；"自筹资金"同比增速趋势与"新开工" 基本一致；"销售类到位资金"同比同步于"销售金额"回落； 4 月末房地产行业资金链指数趋势回落（112 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.38 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2%. Adjusted EBITDA and net profit were 1.16 billion yuan and 790 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 41.3% and 41.1% [1][7]. - Domestic travel demand remains robust, supported by improved commission rates and sustained leisure travel demand. The company's revenue is expected to continue its high growth trend, aided by the ongoing expansion of international business and cost optimization [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2023 at 11.9 billion yuan, 2024 at 17.3 billion yuan, 2025E at 19.3 billion yuan, 2026E at 21.9 billion yuan, and 2027E at 24.4 billion yuan, with growth rates of 81%, 46%, 11%, 13%, and 12% respectively [3][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is projected at 2.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [3][9]. - The company’s current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio based on non-GAAP earnings is 19.5 for 2023, decreasing to 10.0 by 2027 [3][10]. Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company’s revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation tickets, vacation services, and other businesses were 1.19 billion yuan, 2.00 billion yuan, 590 million yuan, and 600 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +23.3%, +15.2%, -11.8%, and +20.0% respectively [7]. - The company’s average monthly paying users increased by 9.2% year-on-year to 46.5 million, with annual paying users reaching 250 million, a 7.8% increase [7]. Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 68.8%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted net profit margin was 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - The company has effectively reduced costs and improved efficiency, leading to a notable enhancement in profitability [7].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 从 300 质量成长走强看 A 股核心资产崛起 ——A 股投资策略周报（0525） 5 月以来，A 股出现了不一样的变化，300 质量成长等质量类指数开始走强，以长 期内在回报为基础进行投资，买入高自由现金流收益率，高 SIRR 的股票的投资理 念逐渐被市场接受。随着经济稳定，龙头上市公司经营趋于稳定，现金流量净额开 始稳定增长，资本开支稳定下降，自由现金流收益率持续攀升，未来两年 A 股权重 指数有望迎来重估。当前小盘因子交易集中度达到极限，量化新规即将实施，监管 加大对操纵市场的处罚宣导，公募长期战胜基准也需要靠买入公司的内在价值的积 累，以上均有助于市场回归大盘、质量。当前弱美元趋势已成，人民币持续走强， 以 300 质量成长为代表的核心资产和质量因子有望再度崛起。 定期报告 相关报告 《首批浮动费率基金申报，4 月金 融数据有何影响——A 股投资策 略周报（0517）》 《〈推动公募基金高质量发展行 动方案〉对 A 股可能的影响——A 股投资策略周报（0510）》 《四月政治局会议的要点与对 A 股的影响——A 股投资策略周报 （042 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Xiaomi Group [1][6] Core Views - The launch of the self-developed chip "Xuanjie O1" marks a significant milestone for Xiaomi, enhancing its high-end product strategy and ecosystem integration [5][6] - Xiaomi's various business segments, including smartphones, IoT, and internet services, are expected to experience sustained growth, driven by high-end product offerings and international expansion [5][6] - The upcoming release of the Xiaomi YU7 SUV is anticipated to strengthen the company's position in the automotive market, with advanced features and performance metrics [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 517.9 billion, 701.4 billion, and 895.6 billion CNY respectively, with adjusted net profits of 43.8 billion, 67.6 billion, and 89.3 billion CNY [7] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 27.7, 18.0, and 13.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Product Launches - The Xiaomi 15S Pro features the Xuanjie O1 chip, with a starting price of 5499 CNY, and is positioned as a high-end smartphone [5][20] - The Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, also equipped with the Xuanjie O1 chip, is priced from 5699 CNY and represents Xiaomi's entry into the high-end tablet market [5][38] - The Xiaomi Watch S4, featuring the Xuanjie T1 chip, is priced at 1299 CNY and offers advanced connectivity and health monitoring features [5][52] Automotive Sector - The Xiaomi YU7 SUV is set to launch in July, featuring a luxurious design, advanced safety features, and a maximum range of 835 km [5][61][73] - The YU7 will be equipped with cutting-edge technology, including NVIDIA Thor chips and laser radar, enhancing its performance and safety [5][61][84] Research and Development - Xiaomi has invested approximately 102 billion CNY in R&D over the past five years, with plans to invest an additional 200 billion CNY from 2026 to 2030 [5][6]

量化基金周度跟踪（20250519-20250523） 本报告重点聚焦量化基金市场表现，总结近一周主要指数和量化基金业绩表现、 不同类型公募量化基金整体表现和业绩分布，以及本周收益表现较优的量化基 金，供投资者参考。 市场整体表现： 本周（5 月 19 日-5 月 23 日）A 股整体收跌，量化基金表现分化。 主要指数表现： 证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 5 月 24 日 A 股整体收跌，量化指增平均录得正超额 主要股指下跌，其中沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 近一周收益率分别为 -0.18%、-1.10%、-1.29%。 各类基金表现： 本周量化基金收益表现分化，主动量化跌 0.28%；市场中性跌 0.12%。指 数增强型基金平均录得正超额，其中中证 500 指增和中证 1000 指增超额 收益较高，分别为 0.48%、0.34%。 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 江帆 研究助理 jiangfan ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in the advanced metal new materials sector, focusing on key demands and serving strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new energy, electronic information, and high-end equipment, indicating significant growth potential [1][14]. - The company has shown continuous growth in net profit, with a 49.26% year-on-year increase in 2024, despite a 7.50% decline in revenue [7][26]. - The company is actively involved in technological innovation, participating in 13 national-level research projects and obtaining 8 new patents in 2024 [7][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in December 1998 and listed in May 2000, the company is a core platform for metal new materials under China Steel Research Group, focusing on R&D, production, and sales of advanced metal materials and products [14][15]. - The company serves over 50 countries and regions, with a strong reputation in the industry [15]. Business Segments - The company operates in four main business segments: high-end powder metallurgy materials, advanced functional materials, high-speed tool steel, and environmental engineering materials, serving various industries including aerospace, nuclear power, and high-end medical devices [15][19]. Tungsten and Molybdenum Industry - The company maintains a leading position in the tungsten and molybdenum sector, with a revenue of 2.022 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 22.98% year-on-year growth [36][38]. - The company is the largest deep-processing enterprise for tungsten and molybdenum in China, with a significant market share in various applications [37][38]. Rare Earth Magnetic Materials - The company has a production capacity of 12,000 tons of neodymium-iron-boron and plans to expand to 20,000 tons, focusing on smart production and high-end market services [7][36]. - The recovery in consumer electronics and the growth of humanoid robots and new energy vehicles provide growth opportunities in the permanent magnet sector [7][36]. Amorphous and Nanocrystalline Materials - The company signed contracts worth 1.17 billion yuan in 2024, with a revenue of 974 million yuan and a net profit of 51.35 million yuan, showing significant growth in this segment [7][10]. - The company is actively developing the amorphous strip market and has invested in a new 10,000-ton amorphous strip project [7][10]. Nuclear Fusion Market - The nuclear fusion sector presents a broad market prospect, with the company developing a full range of tungsten products for international fusion projects, generating approximately 40 million yuan in revenue in 2024 [7][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 387 million, 444 million, and 499 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.3, 29.9, and 26.6 [8].