证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 政策不会短视 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 18 期） 频率：每周 尽管中美阶段性互降关税，但国内政策执行进度不会就此放缓。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《四月金融数据怎么看》 2025-05-15 2、《中美阶段性互降关税有何 影响—显微镜下的中国经济 （2025 年第 17 期）》2025-05- 12 3、《谈判的底气——宏观与大 类资产周报》2025-05-11 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 从上周的市场表现看，投资者普遍预期由于中美阶段性互降关税的缘故，短 期基本面将好于预期，这意味着 2 季度内政策显著加码的可能性下降。今天 公布的 4 月经济数据也显示国内工业生产、消费和投资形势也并没受到此前 双方高额关税的影响，数据韧性较强，预计 2 季度经济增速有较大可能性稳 定在全年经济增长目标附近。尽管如此，我们认为 2 季度政策执行层面不会 受上述因素 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights four major industry opportunities at Computex 2025: smart computing & robotics, next-generation technology, future mobility, and B5G & space technology [4][11][25] - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating in China, with Guoxuan High-Tech leading the market by launching multiple new battery products, including the G-Guang solid-state battery [4][40][51] Group 2: Industry Trends - Computex 2025 will take place from May 20 to May 23 in Taipei, Taiwan, focusing on advanced communications, e-sports, consumer electronics, and industrial IoT [11][12] - Guoxuan High-Tech's G-Guang solid-state battery has an annual production capacity of approximately 12 GWh, with successful testing completed for over five clients [4][40][51] - The solid-state battery's energy density exceeds 300 Wh/kg and volume energy density exceeds 720 Wh/L, with a lifespan of 10 years or 500,000 kilometers [40][47] Group 3: Policy Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal policies, with a focus on improving living environments and urban development mechanisms by 2030 [4][6] - Recent policies support the solid-state battery industry, aiming to establish a complete industrial chain by 2030 through tax incentives and research subsidies [50][51] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The global stock market showed mixed performance, with technology, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors performing well [4] - The report identifies five key sectors for short-term focus: robotics, self-control, domestic demand, precious metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 社零数据点评 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | 占比% | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 133 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1172.3 | 1.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1076.2 | 1.4 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.1 | 28.9 | 27.5 | | 相对表现 | 10.2 | 31.3 | 21.5 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《商贸社服行业周报—京东外卖 上线百亿补贴，京东盒马等企业助力 出口转内销》2025-04-14 4 月社零同比+5.1%，国补品类保持增速领先 消费品/商业 2025 年 4 月社会消费品零售总额为 37174 亿元，当月同比+5.1%；实物商品网 上零售额当月为 9317 亿元，当月同比+6.1%。4 月社零及电商大盘维持相对稳 健增长，国补品类增速保持领先。当前内需有望发力，若刺激消费政策出台消 费互联网龙头将显著受 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 央国企动态系列报告之 39 —多家央企制定并购重组规划，通信等央企带动分红提升 频率：双周 通过进一步梳理央企上市公司 2024 年年报，资本运作上，多家央企上市公司 在年报中明确披露公司未来资本运作规划，重点围绕战新产业和未来产业展开 并购重组；分红上，2024 年央企分红率达 50.7%，通信和交运类央企带动整 体分红率提升。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《出口修复扰动资产价格— —宏观与大类资产周报》2025- 05-18 2、《四月金融数据怎么看》 2025-05-15 3、《中美阶段性互降关税有何 影响—显微镜下的中国经济 （2025 年第 17 期）》2025-05- 12 林喜鹏 S1090522050001 linxipeng@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 资本运作方面，在加快发展战略性新兴产业的总体部署下，2024 年多家央 企上市公司围绕战新产业和未来产业制定资本运作规划。通过进一步梳理国 资央企上市公司 2024 年年报，可观察到，多家上市央企明确提出并购重组 等相关资本运作规划，重点涵盖医药生物 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in butadiene (+21.1%) and SBS (+13.65%), suggesting a focus on new chemical materials [4][5]. - It emphasizes the potential applications of modified plastics in robotics, recommending companies such as Dawn and Huitong [5]. - The report notes the expected recovery in companies like Amway due to tariff easing and mentions potential changes in the supply side for glyphosate, recommending Jiangshan, Xin'an, and Xingfa [5]. Industry Performance - In the third week of May, the chemical sector (Shenwan) rose by 1.82%, outperforming the Shanghai A-share index by 1.06 percentage points [2][12]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector is reported at 24.42 times, lower than the average PE of 10.50% since 2015 [2][12]. Sub-industry Trends - Among 31 sub-industries, 18 experienced gains while 13 saw declines. The top five gainers included viscose (+8.15%) and daily chemicals (+6.23%) [3][15]. - The report identifies the top five declining sub-industries, including civil explosives (-4.72%) and acrylic fibers (-2.44%) [3][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases, including butadiene (+21.1%) and cyclohexane (+12.15%) [4][22]. - It also highlights significant changes in price spreads, with ethylene showing a remarkable increase of +306.9% [4][38]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a significant decrease in polyester filament (-54.42%) and ethylene glycol (-19.16%) [5][60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Wanda Film [2][6]. Core Views - Wanda Film is investing in the leading Chinese IP toy brand 52TOYS through its subsidiary, enhancing its IP derivative business layout [6]. - The company aims to strengthen its non-ticket revenue by collaborating with 52TOYS in the development and sale of IP toy products, marketing, and other related areas [6]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for Wanda Film, projecting revenues of 143.40 billion, 161.03 billion, and 178.15 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.36 billion, 14.38 billion, and 16.05 billion RMB [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Wanda Film's subsidiary, Beijing Ying Shiguang, plans to invest in Beijing Lezi Tianc Cultural Development Co., Ltd., acquiring a total of 7% equity [6]. - Lezi Tianc is recognized as a leading toy company in China, with its core brand being "52TOYS," which has a diverse product line and a strong presence in both domestic and international markets [6]. Financial Data - The total revenue for Wanda Film is projected to be 14,620 million RMB in 2023, decreasing to 12,362 million RMB in 2024, and then increasing to 14,340 million RMB in 2025 [7]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 940 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 1,236 million RMB in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 232% [7][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected PE ratio of 18.2 for 2025, decreasing to 14.1 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [7][9]. - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 67.5% in 2023 to 56.7% in 2027, reflecting improved financial stability [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for key companies in the e-commerce, local life, and shared mobility sectors, including Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, Meituan, and Didi Chuxing [18][20][19]. Core Insights - The e-commerce sector is expected to see a stable increase in profits, with leading companies currently undervalued, recommending Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop [18]. - Meituan's core business profits exceeded expectations, with significant growth in its takeaway services and plans for global expansion [19]. - Didi Chuxing is projected to maintain stable growth and profitability, supported by a solid user base and supply chain [20]. - Ctrip's overseas business is anticipated to grow steadily, with a projected revenue increase of 14%-15% in 2025 [21]. Industry Performance - The restaurant and tourism sector index decreased by 0.26%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.12% [5][7]. - The retail sector index increased by 2.23%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [5][7]. - The report highlights that the restaurant and tourism sector has seen a decline of 2.79% since the beginning of 2025, while the retail sector has decreased by 2.61% [7]. Key Company Recommendations - E-commerce: The competitive landscape is better than expected, with a recommendation for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop [18]. - Local Life: Meituan's core business is expected to continue growing rapidly, with a target price of 178.8 HKD based on a 20x PE ratio [19]. - Shared Mobility: Didi Chuxing is recommended due to its stable market share and significant profit growth potential [20]. - OTA: Ctrip's revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at 12.74 billion CNY, with a 23.4% increase year-on-year [20]. Major News - JD's takeaway service surpassed 20 million daily orders within 75 days of launch, indicating strong market penetration [28]. - Keeta announced its entry into the Brazilian market, planning to invest 1 billion USD over five years [30]. - The successful IPO of the tea brand "Hushang Ayi" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opening with a 68.49% increase [25].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 总股本（百万股） | 2112 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 2085 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 22.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 22.3 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 3.6 | | ROE（TTM） | -5.7 | | 资产负债率 | 67.7% | | 主要股东 | 北京万达投资有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 20.64% | 股价表现 相关报告 1、《万达电影（002739）—24 年业 绩承压，投资出品影片《唐探 1900》 和《熊出没》已定档春节档》 2025-01-24 2、《万达电影（002739）—大盘影响 致业绩承压，多部作品蓄势待发》 2024-11-02 3、《万达电影（002739）—二季度受 大盘影响业绩承压，后续内容产品储 备丰富值得期待》2024-09-06 万达电影发布公告，公司全资子公司北京影时光拟与关联方儒意星辰共同投资 北京乐自天成文化发展股份有限公司。本次股权转让和增资完成后，万达电影 和中国儒意分别持有乐自天成 4%、3%的股权，双方合 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 05 月 18 日 马斯克确认 Robotaxi 白天出租晚上货运模式 人形机器人周报 20250518 中游制造/机械 事件 1：Skild AI 单轮融资 5 亿美元 据知悉融资谈判的人士透露，开发人工智能基础模型以操控多种机器人的 Skild AI，即将以 42 亿美元估值（不含本轮投资额）完成 5 亿美元融资。随着机器人 热潮升温，Skild AI 轮融资估值水涨船高。消息称，软银领投本轮融资，光速创 投、红杉资本、CRV 和 General Catalyst 跟投。Skild 的 AI 基础模型，能指挥 机器狗和双足人形机器人完成从家务到仓库劳动等实体任务。该公司也在向硬 件领域扩张，计划用本轮融资资金制造更多机器人。这些机器人一旦建成，将 有助于收集更多数据来优化其 AI 模型。 事件 2：华为与优必选签署合作协议，推动人形机器人工业与家庭场 景落地 华为与优必选科技在深圳正式签署全面合作协议。双方将围绕具身智能和人形 机器人领域，在产品技术研发、场景应用及产业体系等开展创新合作。协议约 定，双方将通过发挥华为昇腾、鲲鹏、华为云及大模型等能力与华为在研 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 2.7% from May 11 to May 17, with significant growth in production and sales, marking the first time that cumulative production and sales exceeded 10 million vehicles in the first four months of the year [1][23]. - The introduction of mandatory national standards for automatic emergency braking systems (AEBS) is set to accelerate the adoption of this technology in the Chinese market [33]. - Key companies such as BYD, Geely, and others are highlighted for their strong sales performance and potential for future growth [3][29]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was notably strong, with the passenger vehicle and auto parts segments leading the gains, increasing by 4.4% and 2.2% respectively [11]. - Individual stocks within the automotive sector showed significant volatility, with notable gainers including Chengfei Integration (+61.1%) and Zhaofeng Co. (+34.8%), while some stocks like Suoao Sensor (-9.0%) faced declines [15][19]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights several key developments, including the establishment of BYD's European headquarters in Hungary, which aims to enhance local operations and create thousands of jobs [29]. - The collaboration between Huawei and UBTECH in the robotics field is expected to drive innovation in humanoid robots for various applications [24]. - The report also notes the successful launch of new models such as Geely's Galaxy Star 8, which achieved over 10,000 pre-orders within six days of its release [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and JAC Motors [3]. - For commercial vehicles, it suggests investing in Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and Weichai Power [3]. - In the auto parts sector, companies with cost and product advantages like Fuyao Glass and Top Group are highlighted as key investment opportunities [3].