证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 中信建投（601066.SH） 整体向好，期待投行弹性 总量研究/非银行金融 25Q1 公司实现营业收入 49.2 亿，同比+15%，环比-28%；归母净利润 18.4 亿， 同比+50%，环比-37%；年化 ROE 为 8.16%，较 24 年-0.1pct；经营杠杆 4.44 倍，较往年明显抬升。 ❑ 公司总资产 6005 亿，较年初+6%；归母净资产 1052 亿，较年初-1%。年化 ROE 为 8.16%，较 24 年-0.1pct；经营杠杆 4.44 倍，较往年明显抬升。自营 / 经 纪 / 投 行 / 资 管 / 其 他 / 信 用 业 务 占 主 营 收 入 比 重 分 别 为 42%/38%/8%/7%/4%/1%，同比分别为+2/+5/-4/-0/+0/-3pct。公司降本成效 显著，25Q1 管理费用 24.3 亿，同比-5%，占营业收入（剔除其他业务收入） 比重为 52%，同比-14pct。 ❑ 收费类业务：经纪资管随行就市，投行仍然低迷。 （1）经纪随行就市。25Q1 经纪收入 17.4 亿，同比+38%，环比-16%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 成都银行（601838.SH） 存贷高增，拨备夯实 总量研究/银行 成都银行披露 2024 年度报告及 2025 年一季报，2024 全年营收、PPOP、归母 利润同比增速分别为 5.89%、7.11%、10.17%；2025Q1 营收、PPOP、归母 净利润同比分别增长 3.17%、3.59%、5.64%。从累计业绩驱动来看，24A 规 模扩张、其他非息、拨备计提、成本收入比下降和有效税率下降形成正贡献， 净息差形成拖累。25Q1 中收贡献转负，息差对业绩依旧为拖累。 ❑ 风险提示：经济下行超预期；宏观政策力度不及预期；存款竞争加剧。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 21702 | 22982 | 23988 | 25223 | 26975 | | 同比增长 | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 内需平稳复苏，新消费急先锋 大消费组"消费的方向"四月观点 研究部/消费品 食饮 陈书慧：白酒龙头平稳开局，食品小额消费看点不断 轻纺 王梓旭：关注拓品类&渠道运营力强的品牌龙头 农业 李秋燕：增配优质低估值猪企，重视粮食安全 风险提示：消费下行风险，消费复苏疲软风险、宏观经济变动风险等 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 1216 | 23.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 16360.1 | 19.6 | | 流通市值（十亿 | 14931.7 | 19.6 | 轻纺 王月：个护大单品红利期 Q1 业绩表现突出，金属包装 Q2 或盈利拐点 向上 家电 史晋星：一季报收官总结，抄底关税错杀+布局新消费 零售 丁浙川：万辰集团 Q1 净利率大超预期，关注鸣鸣很忙上市表现 医药 许菲菲：关税环境下关注创新药及产业链、内需复苏 商社 李秀敏：聚焦内需韧性&文旅复苏，节前关注出行链投资机会 行业简评报告 食饮-陈书慧：白酒龙头平稳开局，食品小额消费看 点不断 行业指数 % 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 恒顺醋业（600305.SH） 主业收入提速，结构影响盈利 消费品/食品饮料 Q1 收入/归母净利润分别同比+35.97%/+2.36%，公司收入端低基数下加速复 苏，利润增长慢于收入则主要受产品结构拖累。25 年公司新董事长上任后提出 坚持醋主业发展的经营思路，优先提升食醋基本盘增长能力和提振内部士气。 我们认为公司品牌、产品在行业内均属优质，虽然阶段性承压但长期竞争力依 然具备优势。建议对公司增加耐心，期待变革举措的落地与业绩改善的兑现。 增持（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：8.05 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1109 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1103 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 8.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 8.9 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 3.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.8 | | 资产负债率 | 18.5% | | 主要股东 | 江苏恒顺集团有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 40.36% | 财务数据与估值 股价表现 | % | 1m | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the media and entertainment sector, particularly highlighting leading companies such as Shenzhou Taiyue, Southern Media, and Tencent Holdings [1][2]. Core Insights - The media sector has shown resilience with a slight increase of 0.14% in the past week, ranking 22nd among all sectors, while year-to-date performance is up by 0.30%, placing it 9th overall [1]. - The publishing industry is experiencing a rebound, with companies like Southern Media and Phoenix Media exceeding market expectations, driven by stable cash flow from educational materials [1]. - The film industry is expected to benefit significantly from the success of "Nezha 2," with companies like Wanda Film anticipated to see substantial growth [1]. - The gaming sector is also highlighted for its strong performance, supported by favorable valuations, growth rates, and the impact of AI development [1][2]. Summary by Sections Media Sector Performance - The media industry index increased by 0.14% in the last week, with notable individual stock performances, including significant gains from companies like Xingyibao and Hengdian Film [10][12]. - The publishing sector is characterized by stable cash flows and attractive valuations, with many companies trading at around 10 times earnings and offering dividend yields of approximately 4% [1][2]. Film and Television Insights - The top films in the box office include "Nezha: The Devil Child," which grossed 51.69 million, and "The Hunt," with a box office of 17.18 million [17][18]. - Upcoming films are expected to attract significant audience interest, with "The Kowloon Walled City" leading in pre-release interest [19]. Gaming Sector Highlights - Tencent dominates the mobile gaming market, with seven titles in the iOS top ten, including "Honor of Kings" at the top position [30][31]. - The gaming industry is benefiting from AI advancements, enhancing operational efficiencies and advertising capabilities [2]. Publishing and Literature Trends - The top-selling fictional books include "Nezha: The Three Realms' Past" and "To Live (2021 Edition)," indicating strong consumer interest in literary works [32][33]. - The report notes a diverse range of successful titles across various genres, reflecting a robust publishing market [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strongly Recommended" [3][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and 11.2% respectively, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year [6][7] - The pre-mixed cocktail business stabilized in Q1 2025, while the new whiskey products began distribution, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [6][7] - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.78, 0.89, and 1.03 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with the current stock price corresponding to a 34 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 6.6% to 3.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The gross profit margin improved to 69.7%, up 3.0 percentage points from the previous year, benefiting from cost reductions [6][7] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 23.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] Product Performance Summary - The pre-mixed cocktail revenue was 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.2% year-on-year, while the sales volume decreased by 8.8% [6][7] - The company’s food flavoring segment saw a revenue increase of 6.3% to 340 million yuan in 2024 [6][7] - The company plans to enhance market promotion efforts around key products to drive growth [6][7] Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing whiskey market, targeting younger consumers and competing with international brands [6][7] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant market expansion as the whiskey category enters a rapid growth phase [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with year-on-year changes of -25.94% and -27.61% respectively, but profit margins remained relatively stable [1][3] - The company is expected to continue its reform efforts, which are anticipated to accelerate, alongside increased mergers and acquisitions and channel expansion, leading to steady revenue growth [1][3] - The main product line, 美味鲜, is projected to benefit from cost reductions and the recovery of minority stakes, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.101 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million, reflecting declines of 25.81% and 24.24% year-on-year respectively [3][4] - The gross margin improved to 38.73%, up 1.75 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs [3][4] - The company added 118 new distributors in Q1 2025, continuing its strategy of expanding market coverage and penetration [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 5.139 billion in 2023 to 6.862 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [4][12] - The net profit is expected to recover from 893 million in 2024 to 1.120 billion by 2027, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [4][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.14 in 2024 to 1.43 by 2027, reflecting positive growth trends [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for Agricultural Bank of China, indicating a robust performance relative to peers and a positive outlook for future growth [4]. Core Insights - Agricultural Bank of China reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 0.4%, a slight decline in PPOP of 0.3%, and a net profit increase of 2.2% for Q1 2025, showcasing resilience in a challenging environment [1]. - The bank's other non-interest income surged by 45.3% in Q1 2025, contrasting with the broader banking sector, which faced declines in this area due to market adjustments [2]. - The bank's total assets grew at a rate of 6.3% as of Q1 2025, the lowest among the six major state-owned banks, attributed to a significant reduction in interbank assets and a slowdown in financial investment growth [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Metrics - For Q1 2025, Agricultural Bank of China achieved a total revenue of 186.67 billion, with a net profit of 72.12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [12]. - The bank's net interest margin decreased to 1.34%, while the return on equity (ROE) was reported at 10.82% [12][29]. Non-Interest Income - The bank's non-interest income growth was primarily driven by a significant increase in other non-interest income, which rose by 45.3% compared to the previous year [2][30]. - Fee income showed a decline of 3.5% in Q1 2025, indicating challenges in this revenue stream despite overall positive performance [4]. Asset Quality - Agricultural Bank of China maintained a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.28%, with a provision coverage ratio of 297.81%, indicating strong asset quality management [12][30]. Capital and Shareholder Information - The bank's total market capitalization is approximately 1956.4 billion, with a current share price of 5.59 yuan and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7.1 for 2025 [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in liability volume and pricing, with a positive growth rate in fee income [2] - The net interest margin decline has narrowed, primarily due to improved liability costs [2] - The company is expected to leverage its wealth management and investment banking advantages in a more active capital market [3] Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.58%, 4.35%, and 2.22% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.80%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2] - The company experienced a recovery in fee income growth, which turned positive at 9.38% after a significant decline in the previous year [2] Non-Interest Income - The company reported a 21.5% year-on-year decline in other non-interest income for Q1 2025, impacted by market interest rate adjustments and high base effects [3] - Fee income growth rebounded significantly from a decline of 9.88% in the previous year to a growth of 9.38% in Q1 2025 [30] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.08% in Q1 2025, slightly up from the previous quarter [2] - The provision coverage ratio was 233.42%, down 4.36 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating stable asset quality [2] Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 214.974 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [4] - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 80.092 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.7% [4] - The current stock price is 21.02 yuan, with a target valuation based on the company's financial performance [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][9] Core Views - The company achieved impressive growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue increasing by 23% and net profit by 20% in 2024, and Q1 2025 showing revenue growth of 43% and net profit growth of 34% [1][7] - The online and offline channels demonstrated strong synergy, with Q1 2025 online sales up by 61% and offline sales up by 33%, highlighting the company's differentiated brand positioning and digital management capabilities [1][7] - The company is expected to maintain good profitability due to effective cost control, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 126 million, 158 million, and 188 million respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 25%, and 19% [1][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2.36 billion (up 22.55% year-on-year) and a net profit of 96 million (up 20.02% year-on-year) [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 13.38%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points, influenced by product mix changes and the rising share of lower-margin e-commerce channels [2][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.40 per 10 shares, totaling 36.69 million, with a cash dividend ratio of 38.17% [7] Channel Performance - E-commerce revenue reached 1.29 billion in 2024, accounting for 54.83% of total revenue, with significant growth in emerging live-streaming channels [7][8] - The company expanded its store network, ending 2024 with 235 stores, including 121 franchise stores and 54 direct stores, indicating a strong growth strategy [8] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to continue enhancing its digital management and brand positioning, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 showing consistent growth [9][10] - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue, with total revenue projected to reach 3.01 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28% [10][12]