证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 22 日 信用拉久期趋势如何看？ ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 核心观点 资金面部分，未来一周，资金面主线转为跨月，政府债净缴款大幅抬升 7000 亿以上， 关注央行季末 OMO 投放和 25 日 MLF 续作操作，资金面预计维持均衡偏松运行。 存单部分，未来一周，存单到期规模超万亿，供给压力不小，存单的发行压力预计边 际减弱，临近跨月，资金面可能有所波动，存单收益率或持续呈现震荡走势。 机构行为部分，基金仍然是利率债主要买盘，过去一周净买入规模约 1412 亿元，放量 明显。 ❑ 流动性：政府债和跨月双重扰动，资金面预计维稳 1、资金面部分：过去一周周内资金面因临近跨季资金需要出现波动，周四资金 面边际趋紧，日内利率转为上行，但央行当即转为净投放，呵护资金面，周五 7 天资金利率重回低位，DR007 也降至 1.50%以下。近期得益于央行投放的中长期 流动性，大行融出规模明显提升，隔夜利率一直在政策利率之下运行，7 天利率 和政策利率利差收窄至 10bp 以下，资金面平稳度过税期。 2、存单部分：供给端，过去一 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 22 日 风偏下行，待时而动 ——可转债周度跟踪 核心观点 本周市场走势偏弱，地缘冲突影响下市场风偏下行。权益市场层面，阶段性调整权益 市场或将迎来做多窗口。虽然近期中东地缘局势再次扰动全球风险偏好，A 股短期跟 随震荡调整。不过地缘事件对国内而言更多是情绪上的短期冲击，影响 A 股的核心因 素仍为自身结构性问题。可转债市场同权益市场共振，市场矛盾集中于政策与业绩兑 现的时滞，结构性机会仍主导交易节奏，后期有望维持中性偏强格局。在供需支撑与 波段操作博弈下，估值中枢有望保持高位、条款与期权价值博弈交织。 ❑ 风险提示 经济基本面改善不足；国内流动性收紧；海外风险事件超预期；历史经验不代表 未来 分析师：陈婷婷 执业证书号：S1230525050001 chentingting01@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：章恒豪 zhanghenghao@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《待到资产尽荒时，此差压尽 更无差》 2025.06.21 2 《"6 月布局"转为"6 月抢 跑"，把握泛超长债机会 ...

证券研究报告 价格 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年6月22日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 360 | 0 5% - . | 0 . | 2% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 847 | 0 5% - . | 2 - . | 2% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 077 | 2 0% - . | 1 - . | 2% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , | 065 | 2 3% - . | 1 - . | 0% | | | | SW特钢指数 | 3 , | 756 | 2 2% - . | 0 - . | 1% | | | | SW冶钢原料指数 | 2 , | 370 | 1 0% - . | 3 - . | 9% | | | 螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm | 元/吨 | 3 , | 070 | 0 0% . | 10 - . | 0% | | | ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 20 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 20 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/李思扬】应流股份（603308）公司深度：高端铸造龙头，受益 AIDC+航空科技+核聚 变产业大趋势 ——20250619 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.8%，沪深 300 下跌 0.8%，科创 50 下跌 0.5%，中证 1000 下跌 1.4%，创业板指下跌 1.4%， 恒生指数下跌 2.0%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是石油石化（+0.9%)、银行（-0.2%)、传媒（-0.5%)、电子（-0.6%)、食品饮料（-0.7%)， 表现最差的行业分别是纺织服饰（-2.4%)、美容护理（-2.3%)、轻工制造（-2.0%)、有色金属（-2.0%)、医药生物 （-1.9%)。 资金：周四全 A 总成交额为 1 ...

Group 1: Swine Industry - The supply pressure for swine in 2025 is expected to be significant, with the breeding sow inventory projected to peak at 40.8 million heads in November 2024 before gradually declining [11][14] - The average weight of swine at market is increasing, with the industry average reaching 130 kg as of May 2023, up from 126 kg in the previous year, indicating a trend towards heavier market weights [11] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and price recovery [18] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken supply is anticipated to remain robust, with breeding stock levels expected to reach historical highs, ensuring sufficient capacity for 2025-2026 [25] - Enhancing consumer demand for white feather chicken is crucial, with a focus on developing new consumption scenarios such as frozen foods and prepared dishes [35] - The yellow feather chicken sector is currently facing significant losses, with cost control being a critical factor for profitability, particularly for companies like Lihua Agricultural [36][39] Group 3: Feed Industry - The demand for pig feed is expected to gradually improve in 2025, driven by the recovery of breeding sow inventory and favorable profit margins in the breeding sector [42] - Companies like Bangji Technology and Hefeng Co. are highlighted as key players in the pig feed market, with potential for profitability recovery [42] Group 4: Animal Health Industry - The traditional animal health market is recovering slowly, with increased demand for vaccines and medications as breeding enterprises return to profitability [56] - The pet healthcare market is emerging as a new growth area, with domestic brands expected to gain market share as consumer awareness increases [62] Group 5: Seed Industry - The traditional seed market is facing intense competition, with oversupply leading to price declines and a potential shakeout of smaller companies [72] - The focus on genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with significant growth opportunities for leading companies in this space, such as Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [77]

证券研究报告 关注供给冲击，看好新材料进口替代 ——基础化工行业2025年中期策略 行业评级：看好 目录 C O N T E N T S 03 投资策略：关注供给冲击，看好新材料进口替代 04 重点公司推荐 05 风险提示 2 2025年6月19日 行业回顾：景气底部，结构分化 01 Partone | 分析师 | 李辉 | 汤永俊 | 李佳骏 | 沈国琼 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | lihui01@stocke.com.cn | tangyongjun@stocke.co | lijiajun@stocke.com.cn | shenguoqiong@stocke.c | | | | m.cn | | om.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230521120003 | S1230523120009 | S1230524090001 | S1230524100001 | 3 行业回顾：景气底部，结构分化 01 02 行业展望：出口承压，内需弱稳，关注供给冲击 图：化工行业利润率降至历史低位（%） 图：化工PPI持续回落（%） 图：化工品价格指数持续下跌 ⚫ ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the new tobacco industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The core consumer group for HNB (Heated Not Burned) products consists of traditional smokers aged 25-40 with a demand for smoking cessation or harm reduction, indicating a larger market expansion potential compared to vaping and oral nicotine products [3][19] - Glo Hilo is expected to gain rapid traction in Japan and Europe, benefiting core supplier Smoore [4] - The report highlights Smoore International and Yingqu Technology as core recommended stocks [5][146][151] Market Overview - According to the World Tobacco Development Report and Euromonitor, the HNB market is projected to reach a value of $38.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a global penetration rate of 6% (excluding China) [6] - In Japan, the HNB penetration rate reached 48% in March 2025, while Italy's rate was 31%, indicating significant growth potential in the U.S. and low-to-middle-income markets [6][34] - The report notes that the HNB market has a stable double-digit growth rate and a concentrated competitive landscape, unlike the more fragmented vaping and oral nicotine markets [23] Competitive Landscape - The report details the competitive dynamics in key markets such as Japan and Italy, where Philip Morris holds a dominant market share of 69.8% in Japan and 82.8% in Italy, with British American Tobacco having significant room to catch up [35] - The U.S. market is highlighted as having potential for HNB growth, with a projected decline in traditional cigarette sales and an increasing acceptance of new smoking methods [42] Product Development and Innovation - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements in HNB products, focusing on heating technology, temperature control, and flavor preservation to enhance user experience [6][144] - Major tobacco companies are investing in R&D to improve product performance and user experience, which is expected to facilitate the transition from traditional to new tobacco consumption [6][144] Financial Projections - Smoore International is projected to achieve revenues of 12.89 billion, 15.11 billion, and 17.35 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.32 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.48 billion RMB [146] - Yingqu Technology's IQOS business is expected to show quarterly improvement in 2025, with new products anticipated to drive growth in 2026 [151]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 通用设备 投资要点 3）应流股份：2024 年燃气轮机产品接单同比增长 102.8%，已取得全球最先进型 号西门子 9000HL 型燃气轮机透平叶片开发订单；2024 年与 GE 航空航天、安萨 尔多等国际巨头签订战略协议或长协供货备忘录，2025 年 Q1 与赛峰集团、西门 子能源签署战略供货协议。技术实力已获国际认可、订单开始加速爆发。 ❑ 航空领域：行业需求向上，公司布局整机+零部件、受益大飞机+低空经济需求 1）行业：2023 年全球航空发动机市场约为 1140 亿美元，中国航空发动机市场 为 2929 亿元。据空客公司市场预测，未来 20 年内全球飞机数量将翻倍。市场竞 争格局由美国通用电气（GE）、美国普惠（PW）、英国罗罗（RR）三家垄断。 2）应流股份：主要研制生产 1000kw 以下涡轴发动机，轻型直升机、重载无人直 升机，及航空关键零部件等特种装备。有望受益国产大飞机+低空经济需求。 ❑ 核电领域：行业景气向上，公司成立合资子公司、布局核聚变方向 1）行业：2024 年全国核电发电量仅占总量的 4.73%。预计"十五五"期间，核 电装机容量达到 150GW ...

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 专用设备 公司为 IMU 头部企业，无人/智能驾驶+人形机器人业务空间广阔 ——华依科技更新报告 投资要点 ❑ 无人物流：IMU 解决弱信号场景问题，为无人/智驾重要零部件 无人驾驶在高精度定位时会遇到信号较弱的环境，IMU 通过测量车辆自身的加速 度与角速度，基于信号丢失前的坐标推算当前坐标，使得无人驾驶车辆在弱信号 场景下也能拥有高精定位，是 L3 及以上车辆的重要定位系统。 ❑ 无人物流：九识发布 E6，定价超预期，无人物流市场将快速发展 5 月 27 日，九识发布首款无人物流车 E6，售价仅 2 万元、引爆无人配送行业； 头部无人物流企业新石器也已交付 3000 辆、涉及 13 个国家，获得超 100 个城市 路权，无人物流行业正快速发展。 ❑ 乘用车：智驾进入下半场，爆发临界点已来 华依科技(688071) 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 19 日 公司已获得德国 TÜV 莱茵 ISO 26262 汽车功能安全管理体系认证、ATF16949 质 量体系认证等，并成功定点国内多家汽车主机厂的多款智能汽车车型。目前高精 度惯导产品已进入大规模量产阶段，未来预计有更多合作 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve remains on hold, maintaining the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50%[1] - The dot plot indicates expectations for 2 rate cuts this year, but there is significant division among officials regarding the timing[3] - Economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, reflecting uncertainties from tariff impacts[3] Group 2: Balance Sheet and Regulatory Adjustments - The current pace of balance sheet reduction is $50 billion for Treasury securities and $350 billion for MBS[2] - The Treasury's replenishment of the TGA account in Q3 may be a key observation window for the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction[7] - Adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) are anticipated, which could enhance banks' capacity to hold U.S. Treasuries[8] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - U.S. equity and bond market liquidity is at historical lows, with foreign investors facing potential redemption pressures[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is adjusted to 4.5%, up from 4.4%[3] - The year-end PCE inflation forecast has been raised to 3.0%, up from 2.7%, primarily due to tariff impacts[3]