短期业绩承压，关注景气拐点 ——舍得酒业 24 年报点评报告 投资要点 财务摘要 ❑ 产品结构承压，关注政商务消费需求恢复 24 年公司中高档/普通酒类收入分别为 40.96/6.93 亿元，同比-28%/-23% ，占比 为 86%/14%。我们认为或因品味、智慧舍得及舍之道销售承压。24 年公司实施 "控量挺价"策略，积极协助经销商全力提升动销，为消化渠道库存及后续销售提 供强力支撑。2025 年，公司将继续坚持品牌向上、渠道向下、全面向 C 的策 略，聚焦重点市 场、重点客户、重点渠道，加大消费者培育力度，持续通过精 益创新挖掘潜力，坚定不移打造大单品的同时，重视各价位段产品的均衡布局。 ❑ 省内外市场均承压，聚焦传统优势市场 1）分市场看：24 年公司省内/省外营收分别为 15.11/32.77 亿元，同比-20%/ -30%。2）分渠道看：公司电商销售表现亮眼，24 年营收 4.5 亿元，同比+3%。 公司聚焦川冀鲁豫及东北等传统优势市场，逐步推进品牌的全国化布局，全面推 动"品牌 IP 化、终端场景化/消费者社群化/行动数字化"的营销模式升级创新。 ❑ 盈利能力下行，费用投放力度较大 1） 24 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.589 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.70%. The operating profit was 1.229 billion yuan, down 9.38% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.853 billion yuan, up 1.03% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 0.808 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.81% [1][5] Summary by Sections City Gas Business - The city gas business is expected to grow steadily, with a domestic natural gas supply of 4.907 billion cubic meters in 2024. The sales volume for city gas is projected to be 4.499 billion cubic meters, a slight decrease of 1.52% year-on-year, with a unit price of approximately 3.26 yuan per cubic meter, down 5.19% year-on-year. The revenue from city gas is expected to decline by 6.63% [2] R&D and Equipment Business - The R&D and equipment manufacturing segment achieved significant breakthroughs, including the construction of a 300kW SOFC system and the addition of 10 energy-saving transformation projects for kiln production lines. This segment's revenue reached 0.069 billion yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 80.83% [3] Supply Chain Business - The supply chain business, which includes natural gas and refined oil products, saw a revenue increase of 83.21% year-on-year, reaching 15.847 billion yuan. This growth is attributed to the establishment of a supply chain network centered around Nansha storage and the participation in international LNG trade [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 39.270 billion yuan, 49.226 billion yuan, and 60.453 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.31%, 25.35%, and 22.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.979 billion yuan, 1.162 billion yuan, and 1.400 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 14.76%, 18.71%, and 20.48% [5][9]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 纺织制造 健盛集团(603558) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 25 日 24 年如期稳健增长，静待越南无缝提质增效 ——健盛集团点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 24 年报符合预期，年末计提压力落地 2024 年公司实现收入 25.74 亿元（同比+12.8%），归母净利润 3.25 亿元（同比 +20.2%），扣非后归母净利润 3.21 亿元（同比+22.5%），兑现高质量稳健增长。 单 Q4 实现收入 6.50 亿元（同比+4.4%），归母净利润 0.62 亿元（同比-11.6%）， 扣非后归母净利润 0.64 亿元（同比+4.0%），单季度收入降速与出货节奏有关， 而利润波动则受到年末计提奖励基金影响（提取金额为 1635 万元）。 24 年公司整体毛利率 28.8%（同比+2.8pp），Q4 毛利率 28.9%（同比+3.1pp）,提 升来自工厂精细化管理及无缝提质增效。 24 年净利率 12.6%（同比+0.8pp），Q4 净利率 9.5%（同比-1.7pp），主要受奖励 基金计提影响（Q4 销售/管理费用率分别同比+1.2pp/2.1pp）。 ❑ 全年现金分红 55% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% year-on-year [6][8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant performance boost, with revenue reaching 13.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.69%, and a net profit of 2.379 billion yuan, up 75.09% year-on-year [6][8] - The company is advancing its α-olefin high-end new materials project, which is expected to support long-term growth [6][7] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which reached 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, focusing on key strategic materials and new materials [6][7] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, establishing partnerships with over 160 countries and regions [7] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 23.57%, an increase of 3.73 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.28%, up 1.75 percentage points year-on-year [6][8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 7.495 billion, 10.102 billion, and 12.592 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.22, 3.00, and 3.74 yuan [8][9] - The company is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue expected to grow by 22.39% in 2025 and 24.79% in 2026 [9]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 25 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 03 月 25 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 资金：3 月 24 日全 A 总成交额为 14744 亿元，南下资金净流入 25.32 亿港元。 重要推荐 【浙商家电 张云添】雪祺电气（001387）公司深度：研发能力出众的大冰箱 ODM 企业，出口拓份额有望加速成 长——20250323 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：3 月 24 日上证指数上涨 0.15%，沪深 300 上涨 0.51%，科创 50 上涨 0.29%，中证 1000 下跌 0.71%，创业板 指上涨 0.01%，恒生指数上涨 0.91%。 行业：3 月 24 日表现最好的行业分别是有色金属（+1.14%)、家用电器（+0.95%)、银行（+0.88%)、煤炭（+0.42%)、 食品饮料（+0.35%)，表现最差的行业分别是计算机（-1.92%)、房地产（-1.77%)、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company plans to issue a stock incentive plan for 5.08 million restricted shares, representing about 1% of the total share capital, which reflects confidence in future growth [1] - The humanoid robot business is expected to open up growth opportunities, with a projected demand of approximately 2.1 million units in the manufacturing and home service sectors by 2030, translating to a market space of about 314.6 billion RMB [2] - The company's main business is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2025, driven by product upgrades, category expansion, and domestic substitution [3] Summary by Sections Stock Incentive Plan - The company announced a stock incentive plan for 2025, targeting 78 individuals with performance-based vesting conditions over three years [1] - The conditions for lifting restrictions include revenue growth of at least 30% in 2025, 40% in 2026, and 50% in 2027, or net profit growth of at least 60%, 70%, and 80% respectively [1][12] Humanoid Robot Business - The establishment of a subsidiary focused on humanoid robots indicates a strategic entry into a growing market [2] - The humanoid robot industry is accelerating, with significant advancements from competitors, suggesting a competitive landscape [2] Main Business Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a steady increase in orders and the upcoming production of liquid intelligent packaging lines, which could add approximately 1.02 billion RMB in net profit annually [3] - The global packaging equipment market is projected to grow from 55.1 billion USD in 2023 to 77.7 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.9% [3] - The company is diversifying its product line, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and reduce the gap with global leaders [3] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.33 billion, 3.97 billion, and 4.91 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 19%, and 24% respectively [4] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 0.18 billion, 1.86 billion, and 2.70 billion RMB, with significant growth expected in 2025 [4][6]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 汽车零部件 豪能股份(603809) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 22 日 传动龙头利润及盈利能力提升显著，新能源车、机器人、航空航 天多轮成长极蓄势待发 ——豪能股份点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 分产品经营情况： 投资评级: 买入(维持) 分析师：刘巍 执业证书号：S1230524040001 liuwei03@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：张逸辰 zhangyichen@stocke.com.cn 基本数据 | 收盘价 | ￥17.67 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万元) | 11,330.01 | | 总股本(百万股) | 641.20 | 股票走势图 -11% 30% 70% 111% 152% 193% 24/03 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/08 24/09 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/01 25/02 25/03 豪能股份 上证指数 相关报告 1 《深化差速器产业链布局，大 力发展人形机器人减速器》 2025.02.27 2 《业绩强劲增长，人形机器人 &新能源车两级火箭》 2025.01.25 3 《出售神坤 ...

核心观点 权益市场或对债市形成以月为维度的压制，税期过后资金面预计仍旧回归均衡偏紧常 态，因此本轮债市调整行情或延续至 5-6 月，结合对 C 浪终点阻力位测算，10 年国债 利率本轮调整上限或为 2.0%-2.1%。 ❑ 本轮债市调整过程中的五个关键技术面信号 信号 1：技术面如何判断调整何时开始？ 1 月 3 日 10 年期国债活跃券盘中触及 1.58%附近的历史低点，当日 K 线收于长下 引线，并于后一交易日（1 月 6 日）形成底部"十字星"形态。 信号 2：10 年国债收益率回踩后趋势是否改变? 1 月 3 日 10 年国债活跃券收益率触底后转为上行，但于 1 月 21 日回踩，此后并 未突破前低，因此上行趋势并未被打破。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 20 日 技术面视角对本轮债市行情再校对 ——债市策略思考 信号 3：技术面如何二次确认调整？ 布林线呈现底部横盘震荡，10 年国债活跃券收益率构筑"W 底"形态，均为趋势 反转形态。 信号 4：调整中的反弹何时开启？ 2 月 25 日 10 年国债期货主力合约日 K 线走出低位 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the international gold price has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% since the 1970s, outperforming other major asset classes. The shift from traditional pricing logic dominated by financial attributes to an increased emphasis on "de-dollarization" is noted. A sophisticated model predicts a strategic bullish outlook for gold prices, with a neutral forecast peak of $3,300 per ounce in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Evolution of Gold's Reserve Status and Value - Since the 19th century, gold's reserve status and value have undergone significant changes, transitioning from the gold standard to the Bretton Woods system and finally to the Jamaica system, reflecting a shift from physical to credit currency [12][15]. - The report identifies three major bull market cycles for gold since 1970, with the first two bull markets occurring from 1970-1980 and 2000-2011, both linked to the anticipation of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate hikes [23][24]. Group 2: Attributes of Gold and Their Impact on Returns - Gold's long-term return stability is attributed to its multiple attributes: financial, monetary, commodity, and safe-haven properties. The financial attribute is highlighted as a key driver, particularly when global risk-free rates decline, enhancing gold's appeal [2][24]. - The report notes that the demand for gold jewelry constitutes over 40% of total gold demand, while central bank purchases have increased to 22.9% of total demand, indicating a shift in the dynamics of gold consumption [2][47]. Group 3: Macro-Friendly Conditions for Gold - A sophisticated model indicates that gold prices are likely to exceed $3,300 per ounce under neutral conditions, with various macroeconomic indicators such as the CRB commodity index and U.S. Treasury yields being significant variables [3][5]. - The report emphasizes that the U.S. fiscal deficit is expected to remain substantial, with projections indicating a cumulative deficit exceeding $1 trillion by February 2025, which could support gold prices amid ongoing "de-dollarization" trends [3][36]. Group 4: Current Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report discusses the potential for increased volatility in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions and the uncertain global economic landscape, particularly in light of the Trump administration's policies and their implications for market stability [3][5]. - It is noted that the current bull market for gold, which began in 2016, has already seen a cumulative increase of 182%, suggesting a robust demand environment that may continue to support price increases [1][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in revenue and performance, with a reported revenue of 1.314 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.70% [1] - The company focuses on its core business of energy-saving and environmental protection system equipment, achieving a significant revenue growth of 45.81% in the first half of 2024 [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the clear trend of energy conservation and carbon reduction in its target industries, supported by various government policies [3] - Emerging businesses, particularly in hydrogen energy equipment, are making significant progress, with a notable investment in a 120MW fish-solar complementary project [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.257 billion yuan, 1.814 billion yuan, and 2.299 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 22.12%, 44.33%, and 26.75% [5] - The forecasted net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 94 million yuan, 200 million yuan, and 237 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 8.56%, 112.49%, and 18.39% [5] - The earnings per share are expected to be 0.76 yuan, 1.62 yuan, and 1.92 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5]