证券研究报告 石化行业周报：本周石化板块整体表现一般， 持续关注反内卷 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-09-01 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：美油库存去化，平稳。持续关注反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周下跌0.57%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周其他石化在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.15%。 ◼ 原油：能源价格震荡。美原油库存下降，美成品油库存表现分化 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格、价差均稳中有涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数上涨，织机开工率上涨 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存下降 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 本周石化表现一般，石油石化指数下跌0.57% 图表 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model **Construction Idea**: The model monitors the critical points of diffusion index changes to identify potential market turning points[38][39] **Construction Process**: - The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price changes of constituent stocks over a specific time window. - Horizontal axis represents future price changes (from +10% to -10%), while vertical axis represents the retrospective window length (from 20 days to 10 days). - Example: If all constituent stocks drop by 5% after 5 days, the diffusion index value is 0.05[38] **Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market turning points and provides actionable signals for trading strategies[39] - **Model Name**: First Threshold Method (Left-Side Trading) **Construction Idea**: This method triggers signals based on predefined threshold values[42] **Construction Process**: - On May 8, 2025, the closing value of 0.9850 triggered a sell signal[42] **Evaluation**: Provides early warning signals for market adjustments[42] - **Model Name**: Delayed Threshold Method (Right-Side Trading) **Construction Idea**: Signals are triggered with a delay after crossing threshold values[44][46] **Construction Process**: - On May 15, 2025, the closing value of 0.8975 triggered a sell signal[46] **Evaluation**: Offers a more conservative approach compared to the first threshold method[46] - **Model Name**: Dual Moving Average Method (Adaptive Trading) **Construction Idea**: Utilizes moving averages to generate trading signals[47] **Construction Process**: - On August 4, 2025, the model issued a sell signal based on moving average crossovers[47] **Evaluation**: Adapts to market trends and provides dynamic trading signals[47] Model Backtesting Results - **Diffusion Index Model**: Current value is 0.39, expected to drop to 0.1 within 6 days[38][39] - **First Threshold Method**: Triggered sell signal at 0.9850 on May 8, 2025[42] - **Delayed Threshold Method**: Triggered sell signal at 0.8975 on May 15, 2025[46] - **Dual Moving Average Method**: Triggered sell signal on August 4, 2025[47] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Logarithmic Market Cap Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures the logarithmic transformation of market capitalization to capture size effects[33][4] **Construction Process**: - Rank IC for the week: 0.333 - Historical average: -0.032[33][4] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power for the week[33][4] - **Factor Name**: Nonlinear Market Cap Factor **Construction Idea**: Captures nonlinear effects of market capitalization on stock returns[33][4] **Construction Process**: - Rank IC for the week: 0.333 - Historical average: -0.032[33][4] **Evaluation**: Similar performance to the logarithmic market cap factor[33][4] - **Factor Name**: PE_TTM Reciprocal Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses the reciprocal of PE_TTM to reflect valuation levels[33][4] **Construction Process**: - Rank IC for the week: 0.243 - Historical average: 0.018[33][4] **Evaluation**: Indicates moderate predictive power[33][4] - **Factor Name**: Profitability Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures profitability metrics to predict stock performance[33][4] **Construction Process**: - Rank IC for the week: 0.236 - Historical average: 0.022[33][4] **Evaluation**: Shows consistent predictive ability[33][4] - **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter ROE Factor **Construction Idea**: Focuses on single-quarter return on equity to assess financial health[33][4] **Construction Process**: - Rank IC for the week: 0.17 - Historical average: 0.022[33][4] **Evaluation**: Provides reliable signals for stock selection[33][4] Factor Backtesting Results - **Logarithmic Market Cap Factor**: Weekly Rank IC 0.333, historical average -0.032[33][4] - **Nonlinear Market Cap Factor**: Weekly Rank IC 0.333, historical average -0.032[33][4] - **PE_TTM Reciprocal Factor**: Weekly Rank IC 0.243, historical average 0.018[33][4] - **Profitability Factor**: Weekly Rank IC 0.236, historical average 0.022[33][4] - **Single-Quarter ROE Factor**: Weekly Rank IC 0.17, historical average 0.022[33][4] Composite Strategy - **Strategy Name**: Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy **Construction Idea**: Selects 50 stocks with small market capitalization and low volatility from micro-cap constituents[7][18] **Construction Process**: - Bi-weekly rebalancing - 2024 return: 7.07%, excess return: -2.93% - 2025 YTD return: 61.16%, weekly excess return: 0.37% - Transaction cost: 0.3% on both sides - Benchmark: Wind Micro-Cap Index (8841431.WI)[7][18] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in 2025, outperforming the benchmark[7][18] Strategy Backtesting Results - **Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy**: - 2024 return: 7.07%, excess return: -2.93% - 2025 YTD return: 61.16%, weekly excess return: 0.37%[7][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.66%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 382 million yuan, up 9.49% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenues of 1.543 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.61% and a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [3]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by rising prices of tin and antimony, alongside ongoing efficiency improvements [3]. - The company has stable production levels for tin and antimony concentrates, with tin ingot production increasing by 19.30% year-on-year [4]. - Significant improvements in profitability were noted across subsidiaries, with net profits for Huaxi Mining, Gaofeng Mining, and Fozu Mining increasing by 13.71%, 47.02%, and 123.53% respectively [4]. - Future growth potential is highlighted by ongoing projects aimed at increasing mining capacity and efficiency, including the expansion of the Gaofeng mine and the successful transition of exploration rights at the Tongkeng tin-zinc mine to mining rights [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.709 billion yuan in 2025, 6.476 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.327 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.28%, 13.43%, and 13.15% respectively [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 829 million yuan in 2025, 953 million yuan in 2026, and 1.164 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26.02%, 14.98%, and 22.17% respectively [5][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.32, 21.15, and 17.31 respectively [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [4][10]. - The gross margin improved to 30.02%, reflecting a 0.79 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by product mix enhancement and a decrease in raw milk prices [4][6]. - The company is focusing on low-temperature products as a strategic core, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) business as the primary growth engine, aiming to accelerate revenue growth through product innovation [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit margin of 7.18%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margins and reduced management expenses [4][5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, with net profit rising by 27.37% [5]. - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products for the first half of 2025 was 5.067 billion yuan, 460 million yuan, and 413 million yuan respectively, with liquid milk showing a 4.60% increase year-on-year [6]. Product and Market Development - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total revenue, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year [7]. - The company launched innovative products such as yogurt and caramel milk pudding, which quickly gained consumer acceptance, contributing to revenue growth [7]. - E-commerce channel revenue reached 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.41%, driven by the company's active engagement with platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.271 billion yuan, 12.030 billion yuan, and 13.057 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.68%, 6.74%, and 8.53% [10][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 716 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 1.041 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 33.16%, 21.51%, and 19.66% respectively [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [9]. Core Insights - The company is one of China's three major hydropower equipment manufacturers and the largest private clean energy equipment manufacturer, as well as the largest publicly listed hazardous waste treatment company in China [4][20]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand in the pumped storage and nuclear power sectors, with a projected revenue growth driven by the government's three-year action plan against illegal waste disposal [4][6]. - The company has shown a significant increase in R&D investment, with a forecasted R&D expenditure of 940 million yuan in 2024, up from 50 million yuan in 2019, supporting its equipment manufacturing capabilities [4][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved from a small hydropower equipment manufacturer to a comprehensive group involved in large hydropower, nuclear power equipment, and hazardous waste disposal [20]. - It has successfully delivered contracts for control rod drive mechanisms for 17 "Hualong One" nuclear reactors domestically and internationally [4][21]. Industry Outlook - The pumped storage and nuclear power industries are experiencing a sustained increase in demand, with the approval of 48 new pumped storage power stations in 2022, totaling 68.9 million kilowatts [4][5]. - The global nuclear power sector is recovering, with investments projected to reach 150 billion USD, indicating a strong future for nuclear energy as a clean baseload power source [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 21.61 billion, 22.37 billion, and 23.20 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to grow at a CAGR of 25.7% over the same period [7][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.24, 0.30, and 0.38 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. Business Segments - The hazardous waste treatment and resource recovery business is the main revenue driver, accounting for 94.6% of total revenue in 2024 [35]. - The gross profit margins for hazardous waste treatment and clean energy equipment are expected to be 10.4% and 40.1%, respectively, in 2024 [37]. R&D and Technological Advancements - The company has been increasing its R&D capabilities, with a focus on enhancing the technology of pumped storage and nuclear power equipment [48]. - Continuous upgrades in technology have led to a growing order book, with significant contracts awarded in the pumped storage sector from 2022 to 2024 [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q2, with profits exceeding expectations due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The H1 2025 revenue was 13.523 billion yuan, a 1.33% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 798 million yuan, up 21.38% [3][4]. - The company is dynamically optimizing its store network and actively engaging in prescription outsourcing, with a total of 16,833 stores across 21 provinces as of June 30, 2025 [6]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 29.15 billion yuan, 32.11 billion yuan, and 35.43 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the gross margin was 34.86%, with a net profit margin of 5.90%. The company achieved significant cost control, with a sales expense ratio of 21.52% [4]. - The retail business generated 11.005 billion yuan in revenue, while the franchise and distribution business saw an 8.26% increase in revenue to 2.136 billion yuan [5]. - The company’s operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 2.91 billion yuan, reflecting a 64.67% increase [3]. Store Network and Expansion - The company has increased its store count by 280 in H1 2025, with a focus on optimizing its network by closing 285 underperforming stores [6]. - The company has established a significant presence in the market with 278 DTP specialty pharmacies and over 10,000 stores qualified for personal account medical insurance [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.147 billion yuan for 2025, 1.320 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.522 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 300 million yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 16.51% year-on-year, with a net profit of 66 million yuan, down 33.99% [3]. - Despite the revenue decline, there is a noticeable improvement in the second quarter, with a year-on-year revenue drop of only 6.64%, compared to a 22.68% decline in the first quarter [3]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 80.81%, showing a slight increase of 0.43 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased to 21.88%, down 5.79 percentage points [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s sales expenses ratio for H1 2025 was 44.41%, with management expenses at 15.31% and R&D expenses at 9.93% [4]. - Internet sales showed a positive trend, with revenue from online channels reaching 77 million yuan, an increase of 15.14% [5]. - The company has initiated a marketing reform that has begun to yield results, including strategic partnerships and the establishment of a nationwide distributor network [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 656 million, 711 million, and 777 million yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 158 million, 178 million, and 206 million yuan [7][9]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the forecasted years are 27, 24, and 21, indicating a potential for growth as the company expands its market reach [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 18.27% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.916 billion yuan, and a 42.18% increase in net profit, amounting to 230 million yuan [4][5]. - The company is expanding its business model by deepening its traditional education services while also venturing into new areas such as vocational education and cultural services, which are expected to contribute to a second growth curve [5][10]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, with a gross margin of 36.30% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [6][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 48.97 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.22 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 79.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.24 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 3.4 billion yuan for 2025, 4.1 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.7 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding net profits of 253 million yuan, 304 million yuan, and 366 million yuan respectively [10][12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.07 yuan for 2025, 2.49 yuan for 2026, and 3.01 yuan for 2027, with price-to-earnings ratios decreasing from 24 times in 2025 to 16 times in 2027 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [6][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.875 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.475 billion yuan, up 161.77% year-on-year. However, the second quarter saw a decline in net profit by 42.53% year-on-year [4][5]. - The pig farming business continues to maintain good profitability, while the chicken business is facing significant losses due to low prices [5][6]. - The company sold 17.9319 million pigs in the first half of the year, a 24.75% increase year-on-year, with a per-head profit of 294 yuan [5]. - Chicken sales reached 598 million birds, a 9.16% increase year-on-year, but the average selling price dropped by 18.69%, leading to a loss of approximately 1.2 billion yuan in the chicken segment [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 104.924 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease to 102.407 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 110.485 billion yuan in 2026 and 133.812 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.230 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 7.437 billion yuan in 2025, before increasing to 11.063 billion yuan in 2026 and 15.633 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.39 yuan in 2024, dropping to 1.12 yuan in 2025, and then rising to 1.66 yuan in 2026 and 2.35 yuan in 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company has accelerated its AI transformation across all product categories, achieving significant revenue growth driven by strong AI technology integration. In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 449 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 91 million yuan, up 123.19% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focusing on upgrading existing application scenarios and expanding into emerging markets. The integration of AI with hardware has created new market opportunities, and the company is committed to providing low-power, high-performance AI chip solutions for battery-powered edge devices. The successful launch of several AI audio chips has already shown significant commercial success [3][4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are 910 million yuan, 1.21 billion yuan, and 1.61 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Net profits are expected to be 190 million yuan, 260 million yuan, and 370 million yuan for the same years [4][8] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 39.4% for revenue from 2024 to 2025, and a net profit growth rate of 76% for the same period [8][9]