投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面未改善，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所走弱，螺纹产量环比下降，但持续性存疑，且库存水平偏高，供应收缩 利好效应有限。与此同时，螺纹需求表现不佳，高频指标位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业未见好 转，需求延续季节性走弱，继而拖累钢价。目前来看，螺纹钢供应收缩至低位，但需求表现偏弱， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory consolidation as the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations decline while long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded slightly in the previous two days this week due to factors like loose liquidity, reduced policy increments, stock market corrections, and geopolitical risk aversion. However, the upward and downward momentum is limited. Economic data shows insufficient domestic demand, so a long - term loose monetary environment is needed, but there is little need for policy intensification this year and a low possibility of short - term policy interest rate cuts [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures (LC2601.GFE) closed at 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton (-1.76%) from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1.45% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The current basis was -7,180 points, a negative basis (spot discount), weakening by 690 points from the previous day, and the basis has been weakening overall in the past 10 trading days. - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 26,611 lots, down 342 lots (-1.27%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have been decreasing overall in the past 10 trading days. - Social inventory has dropped to a low level. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The main contract closing price was 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 6,980 yuan/ton from the previous week; the main contract settlement price was 94,600 yuan/ton, up 1,940 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7,840 yuan/ton from the previous week. - **Lithium Ore**: The prices of lithium spodumene from different origins (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Mali) showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous day and week; the prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents in the Chinese market also increased. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 5,060 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide showed an upward trend, while some market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some ternary materials and precursors remained stable, while the price of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate increased. [6] 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts showed the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts presented the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Other Related Data**: Charts showed the changes in trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures. [7][10][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper continued to decline with a reduction in positions, breaking below the 86,000 yuan mark, indicating strong willingness among long - position holders to liquidate. Influenced by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, the market sentiment weakened, leading to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the beginning - of - the - month low [7]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum continued to decline with a reduction in positions, breaking below the 21,500 yuan mark. Affected by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the market sentiment weakened, causing a general decline in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the spot discount has continued to weaken since last week as the aluminum price rose. This week, even though the aluminum price has fallen from its high, the discount has not improved, suggesting weak industrial support. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Nickel**: Since last night, Shanghai nickel has seen a significant decline with an increase in positions. Today, the main contract price of nickel broke below the 115,000 yuan mark, hitting a new low this year. Recently, as the non - ferrous metal sector has corrected, the nickel price shows a downward trend with a significant increase in positions. As the nickel price falls, the spot premium gradually strengthens, reflecting stronger support at the spot end, but the market has weak expectations for the long - term. In the short term, the nickel price has increased positions and declined, breaking below the April low, indicating strong downward momentum [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 18, high copper prices have led to a substitution effect in the brass rod downstream. Some customers have switched to more cost - effective materials such as stainless steel and plastic, resulting in weak order recovery for brass rod enterprises and overall weak trading. On November 17, a bridge at a copper mine in the southeast of the Democratic Republic of the Congo collapsed, causing 49 deaths and 20 serious injuries [11]. - **Aluminum**: In October 2025, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a 13.29% decrease from the previous month but a 12.5% increase year - on - year. From January to July 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 171 million tons, a 30.10% increase year - on - year. On November 17, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 637,000 tons, an increase of 230,000 tons from the 13th and 210,000 tons from the 10th [12]. - **Nickel**: On November 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,800 - 119,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 116,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,900 - 4,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was 100 - 400 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper canceled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [14][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场氛围偏空，煤焦震荡回调 核心观点 焦炭：现货市场方面，周内原材料焦煤现货氛围降温，焦炭第四轮提涨艰 难落地，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价 1670 元/吨。供需方面，截至 11 月 14 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 109.17 万 吨，周环比降 0.51 万吨；下游 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 236.88 万吨，周 环比增 2.66 万吨。整体来看，焦炭短期基本面好转，但需求担忧依然存 在，且市场对前期的主要向上驱动"成本端支撑"分歧增加，多空博弈渐 增，焦炭期货震荡回调。 焦煤：11 月 18 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1159 点，日内下跌 3.86%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 57.05 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+11733 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1330.0 元/吨，周环比持平。 现阶段焦煤基本面支撑有限，此前市场对于焦煤年底供应收缩预期的分歧 有所加大，期货市场多空博弈加剧，焦煤主力合约震荡回调，后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On November 18, 2025, all stock indices declined slightly, showing a weak performance throughout the day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1946 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6 billion yuan from the previous day. In the short term, the incremental policy signals in November weakened, and geopolitical factors triggered an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. As the stock indices approached previous highs, the willingness of profit - taking funds to stop profits increased, and there was a need for technical consolidation of the stock indices. Overall, the stock indices are currently in a short - term volatile period where the expectation of policy benefits and the profit - taking rhythm of funds are in a game. In the long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market jointly form strong support for the stock indices. In general, the short - term long - short game has intensified, and the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. Since the implied volatility of options is currently at a relatively low historical quantile level and considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, the idea of a bull spread is maintained [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On November 18, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.28% to close at 3.150; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.57% to close at 4.683; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.49% to close at 4.832; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.65% to close at 4568.19; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.00% to close at 7448.10; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.01% to close at 7.262; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.96% to close at 2.899; the GEM ETF fell 1.07% to close at 3.051; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.59% to close at 3.380; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.30% to close at 3003.02; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.35% to close at 1.43; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.36% to close at 1.38 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on November 18, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options in November or December 2025 are provided, including 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [8][9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - For each type of option (such as 50ETF options, 300ETF options, etc.), multiple charts are provided, including the trend of the underlying asset, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. These charts show the historical data from 2023 to 2025, providing a visual display of the changes in option - related indicators over time [10][21][34] etc.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating and rebounding, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center of gravity slightly moved up to the 15,300 yuan/ton line. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.33% to 15,295 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 90 yuan/ton. After the macro - drive weakened, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,036 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,003 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly fell 0.29% to 2,030 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 123 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 466.2 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 457.8 yuan/barrel. At the close, it slightly fell 0.43% to 458.8 yuan/barrel. There were differences between long and short positions. The game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, combined with geopolitical factors, hindered the oil price rebound, and the oil price might fluctuate widely [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons or 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.13 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.75 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.96 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will further decline next week [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles [10]. - **Methanol** - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.94%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.69%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.44%, and a slight increase of 3.67% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9761 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 7,600 tons, and a significant increase of 112,000 tons compared with 1.8641 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.23%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.83%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 63.64%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.41%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.82%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.12 percentage points and a month - on - month significant decrease of 6.54%. As of November 14, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 237 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 109 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant rebound of 457 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.279 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7,100 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 20,100 tons, and a significant increase of 246,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 13, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 369,300 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 17,200 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 9,400 tons, and a slight decrease of 21,200 tons compared with 390,500 tons in the same period last year [12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 414, unchanged week - on - week and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.862 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 211,000 barrels/day and a significant increase of 462,000 barrels/day compared with the same period last year, reaching a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427.6 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 6.413 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.166 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.519 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 346,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 410.4 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 798,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a week - on - week slight recovery of 3.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts compared with the average in August, a decrease of 15.65%. As of November 11, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts compared with the average in October, an increase of 37.82% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,295 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 495 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,030 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,030 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 430.5 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 458.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | - 28.3 yuan/barrel | +0.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, methanol port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc.), but no specific chart analysis is provided [15][28][40]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The net short position of the asphalt futures 2601 contract has expanded, and the number of seats switching from long to short exceeds those switching from short to long, indicating an enhanced advantage for the bears. It is expected that the asphalt futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the asphalt futures 2601 contract showed a volume - shrinking adjustment. The lowest price during the session dropped to 3027 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3032 yuan/ton. The open interest increased slightly by 1726 lots to 194477 lots [3]. Long - Position Changes of Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the asphalt futures 2601 contract, 10 seats increased their long positions. One seat, Dongzheng Futures, increased by 1412 lots. Eight seats increased between 100 and 1000 lots, and 1 seat increased by less than 100 lots [3]. Short - Position Changes of Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 short - position seats, 13 seats increased their short positions. Three seats, Guotai Junan Futures, Galaxy Futures, and Dongzheng Futures, increased by over 1000 lots. Seven seats increased between 100 and 1000 lots, and 3 seats increased by less than 100 lots [4]. Position - Switching Operations - Two seats among the top 20 long and short seats carried out long - to - short operations, while no seats carried out short - to - long operations [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic propylene futures market is facing dual pressures of continuous capacity expansion and weak downstream demand, with an imbalanced supply - demand fundamental. The price of propylene futures is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, and the real improvement of the fundamentals requires the appearance of an inventory inflection point [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Situation - China's propylene production capacity is in a rapid expansion cycle. In 2024, the total production capacity reached 70.44 million tons/year with a utilization rate of 76.6%. In 2025, over 5 million tons of new capacity is expected to be released. The PDH process is the main force for expansion, but most PDH plants face cost pressures and operate at a low utilization rate. In October 2025, the output was 5.476 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 15.77%, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.0% [2] - Import profit is in a continuous inversion state, suppressing import volume. Although there is some room for export growth, the overall export volume remains stable, and domestic supply mainly depends on domestic demand [3] Inventory Situation - The port inventories in major distribution centers such as Shandong and East China are on an upward trend, and the social total inventory is estimated to be around 1.8 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is rising, and the production enterprise's in - plant inventory is also at a historical high. Downstream factories adopt a low - inventory strategy, which intensifies the upstream shipment pressure [3] Demand Situation - Although the downstream production capacity of propylene is growing, the terminal demand recovery is far below expectations, showing a "weak in peak season" situation. Downstream enterprises are mostly in a loss state, with low acceptance of high - priced raw materials and only maintaining rigid demand [3] - The performance of downstream products is differentiated. PP has relatively stable operating rates, but the profitability of different production routes varies greatly. Epoxy propane, butanol - octanol, and phenol - acetone are in losses, while acrylic acid and esters are profitable. Overall, the downstream's willingness to purchase propylene is severely suppressed [4] Macro - factor Influence - The end of the US government "shutdown" and the reduced probability of a Fed rate cut in December have weakened the macro - optimistic expectations for propylene futures. The market focus has returned to the industrial fundamentals, and the propylene futures price is more likely to be dragged down by the fundamentals [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - China stocks are recommended to be overweighted, US stocks to be standard - weighted, and Chinese bonds to be under - weighted [23] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of macro - data, commodity investments, financial news, and the stock market. It points out trends in various economic indicators, potential impacts on different industries, and offers investment suggestions based on market conditions [1][2][11][23] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP growth was 4.8%, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 50% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the social financing scale increment was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3.5299 trillion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1.412 trillion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, M0, M1, and M2 growth rates were 10.6%, 6.2%, and 8.2% respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, much lower than 1.29 trillion yuan in the previous month and 500 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month but down from 0.3% in the same period last year; PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous month and - 2.9% in the same period last year [1] - As of October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, down from - 0.5% in the previous month and 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - As of October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 4.28%, slightly down from 4.5% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, export value decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, a sharp decline from 8.3% in the previous month and 12.64% in the same period last year; import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year, down from 7.4% in the previous month but an improvement from - 2.38% in the same period last year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Since November 18, the Ministry of Commerce has launched a final review of anti - dumping and counter -vailing measures on n - propanol imported from the US, with existing tax rates remaining in effect [2] - In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 17.7 billion US dollars, narrowing month - on - month. Cross - border funds showed a net inflow in October, with an average monthly surplus of 24 billion US dollars in September and October [2] - From January to October, national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year; in October, it was 2.26 trillion yuan, up 3.2% year - on - year. National fiscal expenditure from January to October was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% year - on - year [2] 3.2.2 Metals - Sanctions on Russian oil companies may have a long - term negative impact on Russian oil sales [3] - LME may permanently restrict large near - month positions, potentially reshaping the metal trading logic [3] - As of November 17, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 2.57 tons to 1041.43 tons, a 0.25% decline [3] - On November 17, silver inventory decreased to a nearly 10 - year low, while copper inventory reached a five - month high [3] - Indonesia plans to impose a 7.5% - 15% export tax on gold products [4] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On November 17, the inventory of rebar reached a three - month low [5] - As of early November, the prices of coking coal and coke increased by 4.81% and 4.1% respectively, reaching new highs [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have different outlooks on the 2026 Brent crude oil price, with potential supply surpluses [7] - India has signed a large - scale LPG import agreement with the US [7] - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow in 2026, with price increases possible under certain conditions [7] - The Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in Russia has suspended oil exports due to drone attacks [7] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Egypt's local wheat procurement in 2025 increased by 17% year - on - year, with a plan to increase it in 2026 [8] - India may resume wheat product exports due to sufficient domestic supply [8] - The US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high [8] - Over 80% of winter wheat has been sown in China [8] - As of early November, the prices of soybean meal and wheat increased, reaching new highs [9] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 17, the central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan [10] 3.3.2 Key News - China has protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan [11] - China and Germany have promoted financial cooperation [11] - Fiscal revenue and expenditure data from January to October show growth trends [11] - The bank settlement and sales surplus in October narrowed month - on - month, with cross - border funds showing a net inflow [12] - The real estate market shows a stabilizing trend, with an increase in second - hand housing transactions [13] - As of the end of October, overseas institutions held 3.73 trillion yuan of inter - bank market bonds [13] - The operating loan market has seen intense competition, with many banks lowering interest rates [13] - The bond investment plan business of insurance asset management institutions has declined [13] - Amazon plans to raise 15 billion US dollars through bond issuance [13] - AI stocks have experienced a sell - off, and the AI bond market has emerged [14] - The demand for credit default swaps on technology companies has increased [14] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [15] - Japanese long - term government bonds have declined [15] - There are various bond - related events, including management changes and debt arrangements [16] - Some companies' credit ratings have been adjusted [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The Chinese bond market performed strongly, with most interest - rate bond yields declining slightly, and treasury bond futures rising [17] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and others falling [18] - The convertible bond index declined, with some individual bonds showing significant changes [18] - Most money market interest rates increased [19] - The yields of European and US government bonds showed different trends [20][21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly, while the central parity rate appreciated [22] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies depreciated [22] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different research institutions have provided investment suggestions on stocks, bonds, and the RMB exchange rate [23][24] 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market was weak, with lithium mining, Fujian - related, and military stocks rising, while pharmaceutical and photovoltaic stocks falling [26] - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with some sectors showing significant losses [27] - Morgan Stanley expects a moderate increase in the Chinese stock market in 2026 [27] - Since November, overseas institutions have mainly surveyed electronics and machinery companies, and the electronics industry is showing good momentum [27]