（仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡上行，录得 1.38%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 供需双弱局面下螺纹基本面表现偏弱，钢价承压运行，但低库存格局下 产业矛盾也不大，下行空间受限，预计钢价延续弱势震荡运行态势，关 注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 煤炭强势提振市场，钢矿延续震荡上行 核心观点 热轧卷板：主力期价延续上行，录得 1.89%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，供需双增局面下热卷基本面虽有所走弱，但限产扰动不断发酵，且 现实矛盾不大，热卷价格延续偏强运行态势，关注海外风险情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡走高，录得 1.20%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性尚可，支撑矿价高位运行，但矿石供应在回升，基本 面存走弱预期，多空因素博弈下预计矿价延续高位震荡整理态势，关注 成材表现情况。 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作 ...

Group 1: Core View - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated. Since July, the market interest rate has rebounded significantly, and the anchoring effect of the policy rate has emerged. Coupled with the policy emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, the policy rate has fallen from a high level, and treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded. However, the current trading volume of the stock market is at a high quantile, indicating a strong risk appetite in the stock market. Funds are flowing into the stock market, and the demand for treasury bonds has decreased, which restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term [2] Group 2: Industry News and Related Charts - On August 5th, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tender. Both the bid volume and winning bid volume were 160.7 billion yuan, and the operating interest rate was 1.40%. Today, 449.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan on the day [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a short - term and mid - term oscillation, and an intraday oscillation on the weaker side [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Content a. Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillating trend [1] - Mid - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillating trend [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillating and weaker trend, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5] b. Core Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of domestic and foreign methanol remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. This weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5] c. Market Performance - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed an oscillating and weaker trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.21% to 2379 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Tuesday this week, the contract may maintain an oscillating and weaker trend [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing an overall weakening tendency. The main reason is the supply pressure caused by the planned production increase of major oil - producing countries [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to be in a volatile state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to be in a volatile state [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to be volatile and weak, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Price and Market Performance - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.28% to 510.2 yuan/barrel [5]. Core Logic - Eight major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September this year. Although OPEC+ began to relax voluntary production cuts in April, the actual production increase has far not reached the target. OPEC's monthly report shows that OPEC+ production increased by 349,000 barrels per day in June, and the production of the 8 countries in the agreement production - increase period increased by 394,000 barrels per day [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.73% to 14,425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in a relatively high supply pressure. Meanwhile, the domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 11,450 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The demand for iron ore has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the supply of iron ore is increasing, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, it is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weaker. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience, and the ore price is operating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, the shipment of overseas miners has decreased again (but the sustainability of the decrease at high ore prices needs to be tracked), and domestic ore production is weakly stable, so the ore supply continues to show a steady - to - rising trend. - On the demand side, steel mill production is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore is continuously weakening with an expanding decline, but the profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand has some resilience, which supports the ore price [3].

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：巴西大豆贴水持续居高不下，进口成本结构固化，国内豆类期价走势强于美豆，短期豆粕市场 的驱动依然来自远期的供应收紧预期和成本推动。豆粕期价继续保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the stock index is that it is upward in the medium and long term, and mainly in a range - bound oscillation in the short term. For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is upward [1][5] - The stock index has a technical consolidation need in the short term, but it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term due to factors such as the mitigation of external risks, the resilience of domestic economic data, and high risk preference in the stock market [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is oscillation, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the view reference is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillation with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is upward. The core logic is that the stock index oscillated and rose yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1518.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume is still above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a high risk preference of investors. The expectation of policy reinforcement has weakened in the short term, and there is a need for technical consolidation in the short term. However, external risks are mitigated, domestic economic data is resilient, and the stock market risk preference is high, so the stock index is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [5]

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 7 月制造业 PMI 走弱，但短期内降 息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡整理。由于政策面强调下半年要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加 上 7 月制造业 PMI 数据走弱，因此降息预期有所升 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the weak and volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills. The short - term and intraday views of rebar 2510 are weak and volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the steel price oscillates weakly [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. The weekly output of rebar has a slight month - on - month decline, and the supply is weakly stable. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of production reduction is not strong. - The demand for rebar has weakened again. The high - frequency indicators have a month - on - month decline and are at a low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season characteristics remain, and the weak demand easily puts pressure on the steel price. - Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the steel price is under pressure. But due to the low - inventory pattern, the industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downward space is limited [3].