策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：中国四季度庞大采购缺口是市场核心矛盾。未来仍需关注四季度采购方向及采购节奏。南北美 出口的激烈博弈，将显著影响贴水价格和期货远月合约。国内进口大豆的远期采购成本攀升，继续从原料 端对豆粕价格构成支撑。短期豆粕期价受到市场情绪的扰动影响较大，随着市场情绪整体回暖，豆粕期价 止跌回稳，短期或转为震荡运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's fundamentals are weakening, and the price is undergoing high - level adjustments. It is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line and the trend of finished steel products [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. The key is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is adjusting at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. However, the good profitability of steel mills provides some support for the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports remains low, but it is expected to increase according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners are actively shipping at high prices, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. Overall, the supply of ore is expected to gradually increase. With the supply increasing and demand remaining stable, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are continuously weakening, and combined with poor market sentiment, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for financial futures in the stock index sector is that the short - term trend of stock indices is expected to be range - bound, while the medium - term view is upward. For IH2509, the short - term is expected to be volatile, the medium - term is expected to rise, the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish, and the overall view is upward [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is "volatile", the medium - term is "rising", the intraday is "slightly bullish", and the overall view is "rising". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 161.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 342 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Short - term Technical Factors**: Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, so some profit - taking funds have a need to take profits, and the stock indices need short - term technical consolidation. The recent decline in trading volume in the stock market indicates a decline in investors' risk appetite [5]. - **Policy Factors**: The July Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The policy focus is on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. Incremental policy benefits may need to wait for the Fourth Plenary Session of the 24th Central Committee in October, so the driving force of policy benefits has weakened marginally in the short term [5]. - **Economic Data**: The manufacturing PMI weakened in July, indicating that the problem of insufficient internal effective demand still exists [5]. - **External Factors**: External uncertainties remain, and the final result of China - US economic and trade consultations has not been finalized. Therefore, the driving force of the market has weakened marginally in the short term, and it needs time to fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2509 variety is expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short - term, medium - term, and overall, with an intraday tendency to be slightly stronger. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. Coupled with the emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded. However, the central bank has shifted to net liquidity withdrawal in recent open - market operations, and the high trading volume in the stock market indicates a strong risk preference among investors, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bonds. Overall, treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Slightly stronger oscillation | Oscillation | The manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] | Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Slightly stronger oscillation - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated last Friday. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. The policy emphasizes implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, leading to a rebound in treasury bond futures. But the central bank's net liquidity withdrawal and high stock market trading volume limit the upward momentum of treasury bonds. Short - term trading in a range is expected [5]

Report Information - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Coal and Coke Weekly Industry Data [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The production and import volume of coking coal remain at a relatively high level, and there is no obvious fundamental support [2]. - The supply and demand of coke both decreased slightly, and the fundamentals changed little [2]. - This week, the average daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines across the country was 777,000 tons, which was basically flat compared with the previous week and 6,000 tons higher than the same period last year [2]. - The customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is gradually recovering [2]. Summary by Category 1. Inventory - **Coke Inventory**: - 230 independent coking plants had 465,200 tons of coke inventory, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 115,000 tons year-on-year [2]. - The total coke inventory was 9.1541 million tons, a decrease of 28,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.1772 million tons year-on-year [2]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: - The total coking coal inventory was 23.2693 million tons, a decrease of 287,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 901,900 tons year-on-year [2]. 2. Supply - **Coke Supply**: - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 73.48%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The average daily output of 230 independent coking plants was 518,300 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 19,500 tons year-on-year [2]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: - The opening rate of coal washing plants was 61.51%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - The average daily output of coal washing plants was 521,400 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous week [2]. 3. Demand - **Coke Demand**: - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The steel mill startup rate was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - **Coking Coal Demand**: - The total coking coal consumption was 1.4878 million tons, a decrease of 65,000 tons from the previous week [2]. 4. Profit - **Coking Enterprise Profit**: - The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was -45 yuan/ton [2]. - **Steel Mill Profit**: - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 58.88 percentage points year-on-year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1619.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 342 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to the significant gains of some stocks since late June, some profit - taking funds have a need to lock in profits, so the stock indices have a short - term need for technical consolidation. The recent decline in the trading volume of the stock market indicates a decline in investors' risk appetite. Since incremental policy benefits may need to wait until the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October, the driving force of policy benefits has weakened marginally in the short term. In general, the stock indices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On August 1, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.79% to 2.876; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.53% to 4.133; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.49% to 4.263; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51% to 4054.93; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.14% to 6670.47; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.16% to 6.287; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.28% to 2.510; the GEM ETF rose 0.09% to 2.303; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.24% to 2.877; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.79% to 2754.13; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.91% to 1.09; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.93% to 1.06 [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 109.66 (previous day: 92.57), and the position PCR was 86.82 (previous day: 87.58) [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in August 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in August 2025 was 14.49%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 9.33% [7] 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [9][11][13] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [19][21] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [22][24] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [35][37] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [48][51] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [62][64] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [75][78] - **GEM ETF Options**: Include charts of the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [89][91] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [102][104] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [115][118] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [129][131] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [133][136]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 前期利好兑现，煤焦持续回落 核心观点 焦炭：根据钢联统计，截至 8 月 1 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂日均 焦炭产量合计 111.78 万吨，周环比基本持平；247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 240.71 万吨，周环比下降 1.52 万吨，但仍维持在 240 万吨/天的水平上 方。本周，247 家钢厂盈利率 65.37%，即接近 2/3 的钢厂处于盈利状态， 当前虽是传统施工淡季，但焦炭需求季节性走弱的幅度有限。另外，统计 局公布 7 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，较上月下降 0.4 个百分点，制造业景气 度有所回落。7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局会议召开，政策强预期兑现，市 场乐观情绪迎来阶段性回调。整体来看，焦炭基本面变化不大，消息面扰 动暂告一段落，市场观望情绪增加，焦炭期货短期内或维持宽幅震荡运 行，后续市场关注点预计将逐渐回归焦煤的实际供应。 焦煤：根据钢联统计，截至 8 月 1 日当周，523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 77.7 万吨，周环比持平，同比去年偏高 0.6 万吨，月末煤矿完成生产目 标后产量阶段性下降，进入 8 月后会陆续恢复。进口 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated. After continuous corrections since July, the 1-year Treasury bond yield rebounded to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. Coupled with the policy emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, Treasury bond futures bottomed out and rebounded. However, the central bank's recent open market operations have shifted to net liquidity withdrawal, and the high trading volume in the stock market indicates that investors have a strong risk appetite, so the upward momentum of Treasury bonds is insufficient. In general, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [4] Group 2: Industry News - On August 1st, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 126 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate through quantity tender. Both the bid volume and winning bid volume were 126 billion yuan, and the operating rate was 1.40%. There were 789.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan on the day [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 1 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 弱势情绪未退，钢矿高位调整 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势震荡，录得 1.23%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 供需双弱局面下螺纹基本面表现偏弱，叠加市场情绪不佳，钢价易承压 偏弱运行，但低库存格局下产业矛盾不大，下行空间会受限，多空因素 博弈下预计钢价维持弱势震荡态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价弱势震荡，录得 0.58%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，乐观情绪消退，钢市运行重回产业端，供需双增局面下热卷基本面 在走弱，库存持续增加，叠加原料下行拖累，利空因素发酵，预计热卷 价格承压弱势下行，关注海外风险情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.19%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，但矿石供应在回升，而需求表 现偏弱，供增需稳局面下矿市基本面在走弱，叠加市场情绪不佳，预计 矿价延续高位震荡整理态势，关注成材走势情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, and it is operating weakly at a low level. However, due to good profit per ton of some varieties and the return of production from some varieties, the low - supply pattern is not expected to last. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened again, with the weekly apparent demand and daily high - frequency transactions both shrinking, remaining at a low level in recent years. The weak demand in the off - season remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. With the fulfillment of policy expectations and the accumulation of contradictions in the rebar fundamentals under the situation of weak supply and demand, steel prices are under pressure. It is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [2] Group 2: Summary of Rebar Weekly Data Supply - The weekly output is 211.06 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 thousand tons and a month - on - month decrease of 6.78 thousand tons. Compared with the same period, it increased by 13.31 thousand tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.59 percentage points. Compared with the same period, it increased by 1.37 percentage points [1] Demand - The apparent demand is 203.41 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.17 thousand tons and a month - on - month decrease of 16.50 thousand tons. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 12.21 thousand tons. The weekly average of Steel Union building material transactions is 9.59 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 thousand tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.28 thousand tons. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 1.75 thousand tons [1] Inventory - The total inventory is 546.29 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.65 thousand tons and a month - on - month decrease of 2.71 thousand tons. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 196.08 thousand tons. The in - plant inventory is 162.15 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.52 thousand tons and a month - on - month decrease of 23.45 thousand tons. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 29.00 thousand tons. The social inventory is 384.14 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 11.17 thousand tons and a month - on - month increase of 20.74 thousand tons. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 167.08 thousand tons [1]