Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The daily view of thermal coal spot is to maintain a mid - term view of "oscillation". It is expected that thermal coal will start to operate in a high - level oscillation in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - As of November 13th, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.4092 billion tons, with a weekly cumulative inventory of 568,000 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 324,400 tons [4] - Due to the approaching peak winter, low coal inventory in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly rising recently. However, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, which cooled the market sentiment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of oscillation [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term is weak, mid - term is oscillating, intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's key step to end the federal government "shutdown" has re - stimulated investors' risk appetite, and market optimism has recovered. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. Last Friday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly lower. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term is weak, mid - term is oscillating, intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which has boosted investors' risk appetite. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become more cautious. Last Friday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly lower. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures may maintain a strong trend on Monday [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The demand for iron ore has improved, but its sustainability is questionable, and the supply remains at a high level. The upward driving force is not strong. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic of black varieties. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved, and the upward movement of the ore price is questionable [1] Market Driving Logic - There have been changes in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased slightly. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, and the room for improvement in ore demand is questionable. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to decrease, but both are still at the highest levels of the year. The domestic ore production has stabilized, and the pressure on ore supply has not receded [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures price is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillatory trend, and an intraday strong trend [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1] - The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract rebounded slightly on the night of last Friday, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend on Monday [5] Driving Logic - OPEC's latest quarterly report changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5] - With the prominence of geopolitical factors and the boost of optimistic funds, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and stable trend [5] - The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is in a game with geopolitical sentiment [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） 核心逻辑：美国农业部发布的 11 月份供需报告显示，美国大豆产量、出口以及期末库存均较 9 月份 下调。尽管中美达成贸易协议有助于推动美国对华出口增长，但是自协议签订以来美国大豆价格强劲 上涨，美豆相对南美大豆价格没有优势，导致美国出口降低。在美农报告预期兑现后，美豆期价缺乏 进一步驱动，对国内豆类期价支撑减弱。国内油厂受制于库存压力，短期豆粕市场受成本推动与政策 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since late October, affected by supply - side disturbances and seasonal weakness in demand, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line. In a bearish atmosphere, it is expected that fuel oil will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2]. - In the context of increasing macro - risks, the fuel oil futures market is under short - term pressure, and its subsequent trend depends more on the structural changes on the supply side rather than the strong recovery of demand [3]. - Although the short - term macro - outlook is weak and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress the fuel oil futures price, the restricted supply pattern of Russian fuel oil is difficult to reverse in the short term, and geopolitical risk premiums will still exist. Affected by the recent sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it is expected that fuel oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Since late October, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line [2]. Macro - factors - Recent "hawkish" signals from Fed officials mean that the US will maintain a high - interest - rate environment for a longer time, which boosts the US dollar index. The government "shutdown" has dragged down the economy, and the weakening macro - expectations will have multiple impacts on the fuel oil futures market [2]. - High - interest - rate environment suppresses global economic growth expectations and the demand for dollar - denominated commodities, increasing the volatility and risk of trading and indirectly suppressing the consumption demand for marine fuel oil [2]. Supply - side Factors - Since August 2025, Russian energy facilities have been frequently attacked, and its refining capacity has declined by about 20% as of the end of October. In November, the US and the EU further tightened sanctions on Russian oil companies, reducing its export capacity [3]. - In the Middle East, some Saudi refineries are in the maintenance cycle, and some Kuwaiti refineries have shut down part of their production capacity due to device fires. In Latin America, the export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in countries such as Mexico shows a seasonal decline, and new secondary processing devices in some refineries will also restrict supply growth [3]. Demand - side Factors - As the crude oil quota of domestic refineries is running out in the fourth quarter, some refineries tend to purchase high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock for delayed coking units, providing new demand support [4]. - The number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers globally has exceeded 4500 in 2025. Due to the economic advantages of using high - sulfur fuel oil after installation, the demand from this part of the fleet remains stable [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of rebar are both weakening. Production by construction steel mills is weakening, with weekly rebar output down 854,000 tons from the previous week. Supply has continued to contract to a relatively low level, and the sustainability needs further monitoring. Meanwhile, inventory levels are high, and the positive effects are not strong. Demand for rebar has continued to weaken, with high - frequency demand indicators declining and remaining at a low level in recent years. Downstream conditions have not improved, and off - season demand will continue to be weak, which will further suppress steel prices. With supply contracting to a low level and demand also weakening, the fundamentals have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. Steel prices are still under pressure, but due to low valuation and cost support, the subsequent trend is expected to continue the pattern of oscillating to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar is 2 million tons, a decrease of 854,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 1.259 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is also 3.394 million tons lower than the same period. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.80%, up 0.99 percentage points from the previous week, 0.19 percentage points higher than the end of last month, and 0.22 percentage points higher than the same period [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for rebar is 2.1637 million tons, a decrease of 215,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 1.581 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is also 1.447 million tons lower than the same period. The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 991,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 52,000 tons compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 127,000 tons compared to the same period [1]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar is 5.7617 million tons, a decrease of 1.637 million tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 2.635 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is 13.068 million tons higher than the same period. The in - plant inventory is 1.6042 million tons, a decrease of 642,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 1.129 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is 1.106 million tons higher than the same period. The social inventory is 4.1575 million tons, a decrease of 995,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 1.506 million tons compared to the end of last month. It is 11.962 million tons higher than the same period [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved, with continuous increase in inventory. Although the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded due to steel mill复产, the improvement in ore demand is questionable as the profitability of steel mills has not improved. The supply of ore remains high. The recent rebound in ore prices is driven by the change in the arbitrage logic, but under the real - world logic, ore prices will continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory reached 15,129.71, a week - on - week increase of 230.88 and a month - to - date increase of 587.23 compared to the end of last month. It was 150.80 less than the same period last year [2] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 9,076.01, a week - on - week increase of 66.07 and a month - to - date increase of 226.15 compared to the end of last month. It was 22.28 more than the same period last year [2] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals were 2,741.20, a week - on - week decrease of 477.20 but a month - to - date increase of 712.10 compared to last month. It was 414.20 more than the same period last year [2] - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments were 3,069.02, a week - on - week decrease of 144.82 and a month - to - date decrease of 319.33 compared to last month. It was 48.32 more than the same period last year [2] Demand - 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal production was 236.88, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 and a month - to - date increase of 0.52 compared to last month. It was 0.94 more than the same period last year [2] - 45 - port average daily port clearance volume was 326.95, a week - on - week increase of 6.02 and a month - to - date increase of 6.79 compared to last month. It was 1.29 more than the same period last year [2] - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption was 292.63, a week - on - week increase of 3.93 and a month - to - date increase of 1.01 compared to last month. It was 0.26 less than the same period last year [2] - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 106.93, a week - on - week decrease of 18.15 but a month - to - date increase of 24.75 compared to last month. It was 2.81 less than the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has not changed significantly. The supply is still at a relatively high level with production cuts by plate mills, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand shows weakening resilience, with a slight decline in weekly apparent demand and continued low daily trading volume. The contradictions in the main downstream cold - rolled products have not been resolved, which may drag down the demand for hot - rolled coils. Overall, both supply and demand are weakening, and the industrial contradictions are alleviated only to a limited extent. The coil price is under pressure, but the cost provides some support. The subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 45,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the supply continued to shrink but remained at a relatively high level. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils was 839,600 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week, and a decrease of 20,100 tons from the end of last month. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.80%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from the previous week [1] Demand - The weekly apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 7,100 tons compared with the previous week, and decreased by 183,000 tons compared with the end of last month. The high - frequency daily trading volume also remained low, and the demand showed a weakening trend. The contradictions in the main downstream cold - rolled products have not been resolved, which may drag down the demand for hot - rolled coils, and the improvement in external demand is limited [1] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.1052 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 39,300 tons from the end of last month. The in - plant inventory was 775,200 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 1,400 tons from the end of last month. The social inventory was 3.33 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 40,700 tons from the end of last month [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures prices is expected to be oscillating on the strong side, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillating [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating on the strong side [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating on the strong side [5] - **Core Logic**: After the US government ended the shutdown, the market anticipates that the USDA monthly supply - demand report may lower the US soybean yield forecast. Irregular rainfall in the Brazilian soybean - growing areas has led to the replanting of some soybeans, adding concerns about global supply. In China, although the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient and the soybean meal inventory is high, concerns about the far - term supply gap provide medium - and long - term support for soybean prices. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price is driven by cost and the expectation of the USDA report, but the rebound space is limited by the domestic spot market's loose pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating on the strong side [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Oscillating on the strong side [7] - **Core Logic**: The favorable biodiesel policy in Indonesia offsets the supply pressure, but the weak exports of Malaysian palm oil and the decline in India's import share still drag down the palm oil futures price. In China, the increase in palm oil purchases and the growing expectation of inventory accumulation mean there is a lack of short - term upward drivers. The palm oil market should focus on the production and sales data of Malaysian palm oil and the progress of Indonesia's biodiesel policy. In the short term, the overall price of edible oils has stopped falling and stabilized, the palm oil futures price is oscillating on the strong side, and the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is being repaired [7]. Other Information on Time Cycles and Influencing Factors - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [6] - **Influencing Factors**: For soybean meal 2601, the influencing factors include China's tariffs on the US, import arrival rhythm, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory pressure; for soybean oil 2601, they include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory; for palm 2601, they include the biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]