Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of being weak, a medium - term outlook of being volatile, and an intraday view of being weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Movement and Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak, with an overall expectation of weak operation [1]. - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. Driving Logic - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - The US EIA simultaneously lowered the price forecasts of US crude oil and Brent crude oil for this year and next year, and the latest weekly inventory continued to decline, but the decline was weaker than expected [5]. - There is a lack of new demand drivers at the macro level, coupled with a slight strengthening of the US dollar. Speculative funds reduced their positions, and the WTI far - month contract showed a contango structure, intensifying short - term selling pressure [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a short - term view of being bullish, due to the decline of the US dollar index and the recovery of gold prices. Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, supported by macro - economic easing and mine production cuts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last night, the gold price rose and then fell, with New York gold falling below $4200. Recently, precious metals have regained their upward momentum, with silver performing strongly and the gold - silver ratio continuously declining. Non - ferrous metals have also generally risen [3]. - **Driving Logic**: The likely reason for the rise is the recovery of market liquidity after the news that the US government reopened. The US dollar index also gave support to the gold price as it fell back after reaching the 100 mark. The short - term focus is on the resistance at the $4200 level [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term view is strong, mid - term view is oscillating, and intraday view is oscillating and bullish [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the copper price rose and then fell, with LME copper once reaching $11,000. However, copper's performance was relatively weak compared to other non - ferrous metals, possibly due to its large previous gains and being at a near 5 - year high [4]. - **Driving Logic**: Macro - economically, the US Senate's agreement to end the federal government shutdown has led to an increase in market risk appetite and a recovery in market liquidity, resulting in a general rise in non - ferrous metals. In the medium - to - long term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations are likely to continue to support the copper price. The short - term focus is on the resistance at the $11,000 level of LME copper [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Long - term view is strong, mid - term view is strong, and intraday view is oscillating and bullish [1][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and a weak intraday trend [1][5]. - Due to the high domestic methanol operating rate, high weekly output, increasing external import pressure, and high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China, the methanol 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures is expected to maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][5]. Driving Logic - The U.S. Senate's agreement to end the federal government "shutdown" has improved market sentiment and boosted investors' risk appetite [5]. - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, external import pressure continues to increase, and methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5]. - The methanol 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend on Thursday night, and is expected to maintain a weak trend on Friday [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with the mid - term view being strong and the intraday view being bullish. Policy利好 expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market form strong support for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index, but in the short term, the profit - taking intention of funds and the weakening of policy incremental signals lead to the need for the stock index to consolidate technically [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is volatile, the mid - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and policy利好 expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the mid - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes rebounded oscillating yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2065.7 billion yuan, an increase of 100.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Policy利好 expectations and capital inflow into the stock market support the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. The policy will stabilize the macro - demand expectation and support technological innovation, benefiting the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes. In the short term, the policy incremental signals are weakening, and the profit - taking intention of funds is rising, so the stock index needs to consolidate technically, and the Shanghai Composite Index may oscillate around 4000 points [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, suggesting an oscillation approach. The core logic is that the market's wait - and - see sentiment is increasing, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of coking coal [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight downward bias" respectively, also suggesting an oscillation approach. The core logic is that the support from the raw material end has eased, causing coke to oscillate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Movement and View**: The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of an "oscillation approach" [5]. - **Driving Logic**: The National Development and Reform Commission recently held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, mainly focused on ensuring the supply of thermal coal for power generation and winter heating, which has limited impact on coking coal. There are still differences in the market regarding the coking coal supply at the end of the year, and the futures main contract has retraced at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range. The key lies in the actual supply of coking coal [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Movement and View**: The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight downward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of an "oscillation approach" [6]. - **Driving Logic**: In the spot market, the latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1620 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week, while the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1540 yuan/ton, down 1.91% week - on - week. This week, the industrial game has intensified, and the fourth round of spot price increase for coke has been blocked. There are still differences in the supply of coke raw materials, and the retracement of coking coal at the upper edge of the oscillation range has dragged down the coke futures trend. The focus is on the actual supply of coking coal at the end of the year [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端延续走弱，螺纹产量下降且降至低位，但持续性存疑，且库存水平偏高，供应 利好效应有限。与此同时，螺纹需求持续走弱，高频指标延续下行，依旧位于近年来 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for the day and medium - term of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The domestic thermal coal price strengthened again after a short - term stabilization. As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan. Supply contraction expectations and downstream replenishment expectations support the coal price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the strength of the peak season of thermal coal from this winter to next spring [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, but the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of thermal coal supply. In terms of imports, in October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [4] Demand - side - As of the period of October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192,000 tons/day. The peak season of thermal coal demand has not started [4]

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。由于短期内宏观经济数据仍具韧性，全面降息的紧迫性不 强，央行货币政策框架由总量扩张转为效率优化和结构 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract are expected to run strongly on November 15, 2025, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and an intraday strong trend [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Overall reference: strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's key step towards ending the longest federal government "shutdown" has re - inspired investors' risk appetite, and market optimism has recovered. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend on the night of Thursday, and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Overall reference: strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", market optimism has recovered, and investors' risk appetite has been boosted. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become cautious. The domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillating and stable trend on the night of Thursday, and is expected to maintain a strong trend on Friday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2601 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weak, and the ore price is under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamental performance is weak, causing the ore price to be under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Inventory has continued to increase. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, and the room for improvement in ore demand is limited, with a weak positive effect. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments from overseas miners have continued to decrease, but both are still at a high level for the year. The domestic ore production has stabilized, and the supply pressure of ore has not subsided. Currently, although the demand for iron ore has improved, the supply remains at a high level. The fundamental situation of the ore market is still weak, which is likely to suppress the ore price. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].