作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,657.90 -132.48 13,930.23 -272.33 15,090.31 -1,432.41 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,012.09 126.87 8,847.47 164.62 9,122.68 -110.59 45港铁矿石到货量 2,240.50 -130.70 2,562.70 -322.20 1,822.00 418.50 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,200.90 91.80 3,506.70 -305.80 3,019.00 181.90 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 240.71 -1.52 242.29 -1.58 236.62 4.09 45港日均疏港量 302.71 -12.44 325.94 -23.23 298.39 4.32 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 29 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals | Daily Report" dated August 1, 2025 [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Affected by the weakening sentiment in the commodity market since last Friday, the futures price of Shanghai copper showed weakness. However, due to the limited previous increase in copper prices, the adjustment range in this round was also relatively limited. In the short term, attention should be paid to the change in the overall atmosphere of the commodity market and the long - short game at the 78,000 mark [5] - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Affected by the weakening sentiment in the commodity market since last Friday, the futures price of Shanghai aluminum showed weakness. Due to the limited previous increase in aluminum prices, the adjustment range in this round was relatively limited. In the short term, with the weakening of the overall sentiment in the commodity market and the relatively loose supply - demand pattern of aluminum, it is expected that aluminum prices will run weakly in the short term [6] - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices fluctuated weakly and closed slightly lower. Affected by the weakening sentiment in the commodity market since last Friday, the futures prices of nickel and aluminum showed weakness. Due to the limited previous increase in nickel prices, the adjustment range in this round was relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly [7] Industry Dynamics Copper - On the first trading day of August, the procurement and sales sentiment in the spot market both increased. The procurement sentiment of Shanghai electrolytic copper spot was 3.11, and the sales sentiment was 3.16. As it was Friday, downstream buyers stocked up for the weekend and bargained for purchases, causing the spot premium to decline slightly. However, the overall supply of domestic single - piece copper was insufficient recently, and the spread between the inter - month BACK contracts was only 10 - 20 yuan/ton, so the willingness of holders to significantly lower the quotation was low [9] Aluminum - According to SMM statistics on August 1, the total inventory of bauxite in 9 domestic ports was 23.79 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons from the previous week [10] - According to data released by the Guinea Geological Bureau, Australia's AMCG Mining Company's Koumbia Mine in the Boke Mining Area shipped two ships of bauxite from the Dapilon Port from July 21 - 27, with a total of 349,973 tons, which was the first shipment since its completion. The Koumbia mining area has a total resource reserve of 2.175 billion tons, with an average Al2O3 content of 43.5% and a silica content of 3.8% [11] Nickel - Recently, the stainless - steel composite material manufacturing project of Fujian Qingtuo Composite New Materials completed the record - filing. The project plans to produce 50,000 tons of stainless - steel composite materials annually, which will further enrich the regional stainless - steel industrial chain layout. The project will purchase a series of equipment, and the equipment installation cost will reach 3 million yuan. After the project is put into production, it will increase the production capacity of stainless - steel composite materials and promote regional industrial upgrading [12] Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai copper month - spread, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [26][32][30] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][43][46]

Group 1: Report Core View - The fundamentals of hot-rolled coils are weakening under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, with continuous inventory growth and raw material price decline, so it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coils will be under pressure and decline weakly [6] Group 2: Supply Data - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 322.79 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.30 million tons, a monthly decrease of 4.45 million tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.66 million tons [2] - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.24%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.57 percentage points, a monthly decrease of 0.59 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.37 percentage points [2] Group 3: Demand Data - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 320.00 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.76 million tons, a monthly decrease of 6.25 million tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.30 million tons [2] - The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 87.18 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.22 million tons, a monthly decrease of 0.88 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 2.24 million tons [2] Group 4: Inventory Data - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 347.95 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.79 million tons, a monthly increase of 6.79 million tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 84.36 million tons [2] - The in-plant inventory is 79.30 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.30 million tons, a monthly increase of 1.08 million tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.51 million tons [2] - The social inventory is 268.65 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.49 million tons, a monthly increase of 5.71 million tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 71.85 million tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy shows mixed trends with some indicators stabilizing and others facing challenges. The manufacturing PMI has declined, while the "Three New" economy has shown growth. The government is promoting policies to boost investment, consumption, and the application of AI. In the global market, there are uncertainties in oil prices, and the US is involved in tariff - related issues [1][2][15] - The bond market has been affected by various factors, with yields showing different trends. Different research institutions have different outlooks on the bond market, and there are opportunities and risks in the investment environment [19][25] - The stock market in China and Hong Kong has experienced fluctuations, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both falling on a certain day, but there were also positive monthly performances in July [30] Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4%. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points. Other indicators such as M0, M1, M2, and CPI showed different trends [1] Commodity Investment - The overall domestic futures market has cooled, with some varieties hitting跌停. The "Three New" economy in 2024 had a value - added of 24.29 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7% and accounting for 18.01% of GDP [2] - Platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have specific trading rules. The US may resume "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st, and there are ongoing negotiations [3][4] Main Commodity Highlights Metals - In Q2 2025, the global gold demand reached 1249 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase, driven by investment demand. Central bank gold purchases continued but at a slower pace. Zinc, copper, nickel, and other metal inventories showed different trends [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The coking industry plans to raise coke prices. The reform of industries such as steel, cement, and chemicals is necessary, and three major steel enterprises are taking action against speculation in the molybdenum market. Mexico may impose tariffs on certain products [7][8] Energy and Chemicals - Sinopec's net profit in H1 2025 is expected to decline. China's renewable energy generation has increased, and the government is formulating policies for high - power charging facilities. International oil prices have fallen due to increased US crude inventories, and India is considering alternative oil sources [9][10][11] Agricultural Products - The price of cotton has risen, while the price of live pigs has fallen. The US has imposed tariffs on Brazil, affecting the agricultural product futures market. US corn has been sold to different destinations [13] Financial News Open Market - On July 31st, the central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan [14] Key News - The State Council has promoted AI applications and consumer and business loan subsidy policies. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes stabilizing the economy. China and the US will extend the suspension of certain tariffs [15] Bond Market Review - The bond market has been strong, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally falling. The central bank's net withdrawal has little impact on the inter - bank capital. Exchange - traded bonds and convertible bonds have different performance [19][20] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar has depreciated, and the US dollar index has slightly declined. Non - US currencies have mostly risen [24] Research Report Highlights - Different institutions have views on the financial market, including the role of the financial cycle in the cyclical industry, the impact of tariffs on the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the development potential of the Southbound Connect [25] Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have fallen on a certain day, but there were positive monthly performances in July. Southbound funds have made large net purchases in the Hong Kong market [30]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 8 月 1 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡下跌。沪深 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both沪胶 2509 and合成胶 2509 are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly" and a mid - term view of "oscillating strongly" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - Time period definitions: short - term is within one week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1]. - For calculating price changes, for products with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price, and the ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise of more than 1% is a rise [2][3]. 3.2沪胶（RU） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic沪胶 futures 2509 contract closed 1.26% lower at 14,535 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [5]. 3.3合成胶（BR） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic合成胶 futures 2509 contract closed 0.60% lower at 11,510 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly dropped by 0.08% to 2410 yuan/ton on Thursday night and is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Friday [5] 3.2 Driving Factors - After the digestion of positive factors from the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the significant decline in coal futures prices has dragged down the methanol price. Also, although the Sino - US talks were in - depth, differences still exist [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][5] 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend on Friday. In the short - term, it will be volatile, and in the medium - term, it will also be volatile [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.71% to 528.2 yuan/barrel on Thursday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend on Friday [5] Core Logic - Geopolitical risk premium increase is the main driving force for the recent oil price rebound. The Trump administration's tough stance on Russia may lead to restricted energy trade. While OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan for September, the actual supply growth may fall short of expectations. The peak summer demand season combined with tight inventories may support short - term oil prices [5] Time - cycle Views - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and slightly weak with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday due to the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged, and it may still be worth allocating in the long - run [1][3] - Copper is predicted to decline in the short - term and be volatile in the medium - term. After the market has fully priced in the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1st, it will focus on industry fundamentals, with supply expected to be relatively loose and demand fair, leading to an overall volatile trend [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement Logic**: After the market priced in the negative impact of the interest - rate meeting, there was an intraday rebound. With exchange - rate effects, the domestic gold market remained stable. Attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude and this Friday's non - farm payroll data. In the long - run, gold may still be a worthy investment [3] - **View Reference**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile [1] Copper - **Price Movement Logic**: After the market fully priced in the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1st, copper will focus on industry fundamentals. In the medium - term, supply may be relatively loose while demand is fair, resulting in an overall volatile trend [4] - **View Reference**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile [1]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is strongly - biased oscillation. It is recommended to focus on the support level of MA20. The core logic is the poor fundamentals and the weak oscillation of steel prices [2]. - In the context of the double - weak situation of supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak. With the poor market sentiment, steel prices are prone to be under pressure and run weakly. However, the low - inventory pattern limits the industrial contradictions and the downward space. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation state, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weakly oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is strongly - biased oscillating. The core logic is the poor fundamentals and the weak oscillation of steel prices. There are also explanations for the calculation of price changes and the definitions of different price trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - The previous optimistic expectations have been revised, the market sentiment has weakened, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar continues the seasonal weakness. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, the weekly output of rebar has decreased slightly, but the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the low - supply pattern is difficult to continue. At the same time, the demand for rebar has weakened again, high - frequency indicators have declined, and it is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. In general, the steel price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation state, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].