Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper slightly increased its positions and rose, with the main contract price briefly reaching the 80,000 yuan mark at the end of the session. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation. Industrially, on Thursday, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from Monday. Against the backdrop of continuous macro - economic improvement, copper prices are likely to maintain a strong trend [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, and its open interest continued to decline. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation, but aluminum underperformed in the sector. Industrially, on Thursday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from Monday. In the short term, there are macro - level positives and industry - level negatives. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated strongly, with little change in open interest, and the main contract price reached the 124,000 yuan mark. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation, and nickel outperformed in the sector. Industrially, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless - steel market improved, which is a short - term positive for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices increased in positions and broke through the high point in early July, with strong upward momentum, and are expected to maintain a strong trend [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: US policy changes have affected the recycling market. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports starting from August 1, and China and the US jointly declared to cut reciprocal tariffs within 90 days. The new tariffs have led to more aluminum scrap being supplied to Mexican consumers. In the US, most aluminum rolling mills have sufficient recycled aluminum reserves, and the price of recycled aluminum scrap remained flat. In Canada, the flow of recycled aluminum decreased, and the factory output shrank significantly. In Thailand, many recycling and processing plants stopped operations due to stricter inspections of illegal waste dumping. On July 24, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 22,600 tons from the 17th and 3,700 tons from the 21st [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 24, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the 17th and 14,000 tons from the 21st [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 24, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel's mainstream premium was +1,900 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,620 yuan/ton; Russian nickel's mainstream premium was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,270 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel's mainstream premium was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,320 yuan/ton; and nickel beans' mainstream premium was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,820 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Multiple charts are provided, including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][41][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea. Coking coal remains strong due to over - production rectification support, and coke operates at a high level due to strong cost support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, on July 22, there were documents on coal mine production verification and rectification of over - producing coal mines in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang. This will change the subsequent supply pattern of coking coal. However, the over - production in Shanxi has been curbed after the "Three - Over Rectification" in 2024, so the impact of this policy needs continuous tracking. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment is optimistic, driving the main contract of coking coal to rise significantly [5]. Coke (J) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The news of coal mine over - production rectification has increased the expectation of coking coal supply contraction, driving the coke futures to strengthen. On July 21, coke enterprises started the second round of price increase for coke spot due to losses, and the futures market has improved the spot atmosphere. The 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project has started, which will boost the long - term demand for cement and steel. The anti - involution theme continues to ferment, and with the positive news from the demand side, the coke market is optimistic, and the main contract maintains a strong operation [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, showing a short - term, medium - term and intraday trend of being volatile, with an intraday bias towards strength [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 closed slightly up 0.42% to 506.0 yuan/barrel on Wednesday night, and is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [5]. Core Logic - Macro factors have improved. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, China and the US will hold economic and trade meetings in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and there are rumors that Europe and the US will reach a tariff agreement, which has increased the risk appetite in the commodity market [5]. - Although 8 major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, as the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized, the room for further production expansion is limited in the future [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillating and bullish" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.43% to 14,950 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, upcoming China - US economic and trade meetings from July 27th to 30th in Sweden, and rumors of a tariff agreement between Europe and the US have improved macro factors. This has led to a significant increase in the risk appetite of the commodity market. Although the domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season with large supply pressure, the overall situation is covered by a bullish atmosphere. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and bullish trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On Wednesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.58% to 11,930 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the improvement of macro factors has led to an increase in the risk appetite of the commodity market. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and bullish trend [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and bullish trend on Thursday. In the context of improved macro - factors, the risk appetite in the commodity market has significantly increased. The continuous rebound of domestic coal futures prices offsets the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, leading to a volatile and bullish trend in domestic methanol futures on Wednesday night, with the futures price rising 1.60% to 2469 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Methanol Futures Outlook - Short - term view of methanol 2509: Volatile and bullish [1] - Medium - term view of methanol 2509: Volatile [1] - Intraday view of methanol: Volatile and bullish; medium - term view: Volatile; reference view: Bullish operation [5] Price and Driving Logic - On Wednesday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and bullish trend, with the futures price rising 1.60% to 2469 yuan/ton. The driving factors include improved macro - factors such as trade agreements between the US, Japan, Europe, and China's upcoming economic and trade meetings, and the continuous rebound of domestic coal futures prices [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market sentiment is weakening, and the high - valued ore price has declined. However, due to the supply - weak and demand - increasing situation, the downside space is limited, and the ore price is expected to enter a high - level oscillatory adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [3]. - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all suggested to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weakening [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the iron ore 2509 contract are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weakening respectively. The core logic is that the market sentiment is weakening, and the ore price is undergoing oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment in the iron ore market is weakening, causing the high - valued ore price to decline. But the supply - demand pattern has improved, with inventory depletion. Steel mills are actively producing, terminal ore consumption has increased, and the profitability of steel mills is good, resulting in strong ore demand, which supports the ore price [3]. - Domestic port arrivals have decreased as expected. Although the shipments of overseas miners have rebounded from a low level, based on shipping schedules, short - term domestic arrivals will still decline, indicating a contraction in overseas ore supply. Meanwhile, domestic ore production has stabilized, leading to low overall ore supply [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly corrected, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. Due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year, and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite from the capital side, Treasury bond futures corrected in the short term [5]. - The market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is limited, so the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, with an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low, and the 7 - month LPR remains unchanged, so the upward space for Treasury bond futures in the short term is also limited [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the short - term view of stock index futures is to fluctuate strongly, and the medium - term view is to rise. The reference view is also a rise. The rebound of the stock index is mainly driven by policy - related positive expectations. Although the upward momentum may slow down if policy increments decrease, the overall upward trend remains due to high trading volume and positive market sentiment [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to rise, the intraday view is to fluctuate strongly, and the reference view is to rise. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all stock indexes rose slightly throughout the day. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1,898.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The recent rebound of the stock index is driven by policy - related positive expectations. If policy increments decrease, the upward momentum may slow down. Currently, the trading volume is high, indicating positive investor risk preference. Policy expectations and relevant projects drive the valuation recovery of related industries, and the overall market atmosphere is optimistic, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5].

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils for July 24, 2025, covering the price trends, driving logics, and views of different varieties in the agricultural products sector of commodity futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that the domestic market sentiment of soybean meal is high, and the expectation of tightening forward supply continues to heat up, leading to a continuous rise in the price of soybean meal futures. Palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector, and its price is affected by international oil prices, but the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia provides strong support for its price [5][7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [5]. - **Medium - term View**: Strong [5]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the domestic and foreign markets of soybean meal have shown continuous divergence. The domestic market sentiment is high, and the expectation of tightening forward supply continues to heat up. The rise in soybean meal prices is the result of the resonance of supply expectation difference and cost. The resilience of Brazilian premiums and the expected procurement gap in the fourth quarter are the main drivers. The futures are stronger than the spot, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [7]. - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector, and its price hit a new high yesterday. The rebound reflects the energy attribute of oils and fats, so the price is affected by international oil price fluctuations. However, the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia provides strong support for its energy demand, restricting the downside space. In the short term, the price of palm oil will run oscillating strongly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is bearish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The market risk preference is rising due to the gradual reaching of US foreign tariff agreements, which is negative for gold prices [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is bullish, and the intraday view is rising. The US foreign tariff policies are gradually implemented, and the inventory and price structure of electrolytic copper suggest that the short - term focus is on the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: This week, the gold price broke through the July oscillation high, with New York gold approaching the $3450 mark, but it dropped significantly at midnight last night [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The EU and the US are about to reach a trade agreement, and the US has reached a trade agreement with Japan. China's vice - premier will hold economic and trade talks with the US. The reduction of uncertainties may lead to a continuous rise in global market risk preference, which is negative for gold prices. In the long run, gold prices have been oscillating at high levels since the relaxation of US tariff policies in April [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the intraday copper price decreased with reduced positions, and the overall non - ferrous metals showed a downward trend. After the Asian session, LME copper continued to rise, and SHFE copper in the domestic night session once approached the 80,000 - yuan mark and then oscillated and declined [5]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the US foreign tariff policies are gradually implemented, and the market risk preference is rising. Domestically, the short - term bullish sentiment has cooled. At the industrial level, the inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high abroad, and the futures price is strong in China and weak abroad. The SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to strengthen, and the import profit will expand [5].