Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly declining. The price center of the contract during the session moved slightly below the 14,850 yuan/ton line, and closed 0.74% lower at 14,850 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 95 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rebounding from oversold conditions, and slightly rising. The price reached a high of 2,150 yuan/ton and a low of 2,089 yuan/ton, and closed 0.94% higher at 2,141 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 95 yuan/ton. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of domestic methanol, it is expected that the 2601 contract may maintain a weak pattern in the future [6]. - On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly declining. The price reached a high of 465.6 yuan/barrel and a low of 459.0 yuan/barrel, and closed 0.32% lower at 463.7 yuan/barrel. With the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in South America, the premium of domestic and foreign crude oil futures has increased. Meanwhile, OPEC will suspend capacity expansion in the first quarter of next year, and the supply expectation has changed, boosting the confidence of oil market bulls [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory was 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%, and the general trade inventory was 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.79 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.79 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 4.30 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.49 percentage points [9]. - In the week of October 31, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.90 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.20 percentage points [9]. - In October 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in October 2025 was 50.7%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [10]. - In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This has been the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April this year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000, and it is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and there is even a possibility of reaching 1.1 million [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.88%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.67%, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and a slight increase of 1.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9681 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 24,600 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 95,400 tons, and a significant increase of 85,100 tons compared with 1.883 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.98%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.79%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.32%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.29%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 56.50%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 84.18%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.27 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 1.15% [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures contract's on - paper profit was 10 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week recovery of 164 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month rebound of 142 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.2829 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 13,100 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, and a significant increase of 261,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory reached 360,400 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 40,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 76,500 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 420, a slight week - on - week decrease of 6 and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.644 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,000 barrels per day, reaching a historical high [15]. - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) in the United States reached 416 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.858 million barrels and a significant decrease of 9.543 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the United States, reached 22.565 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.334 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 409.1 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 533,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 86.6%, a slight week - on - week decline of 2.0 percentage points, a significant month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decline of 2.5 percentage points [15]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts compared with the average of 122,063 contracts in August, a decline of 15.65%. Meanwhile, as of October 28, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 173,887 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 122,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 42,468 contracts compared with the average of 216,355 contracts in September, a decline of 19.63% [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,350 yuan/ton | - 300 yuan/ton | 14,850 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 500 yuan/ton | - 275 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,100 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,141 yuan/ton | + 26 yuan/ton | - 41 yuan/ton | - 51 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 434.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 465.2 yuan/barrel | + 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 30.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.6 yuan/barrel | [18] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: includes charts of rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [19][21][23] - Methanol: includes charts of methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [32][34][36] - Crude Oil: includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [45][47][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore inventory at the 15 ports monitored by Steel Union has been continuously rising, with a week-on-week increase of 174,420 tons and an expanding growth rate [1]. - The inventory increase is mainly in mainstream varieties. Among them, the medium-grade Australian powder and Australian lump increased by 114,130 tons and 40,670 tons respectively, and the pellet ore increased by 10,660 tons, while the high-grade Australian powder decreased by 35,320 tons [1]. - In general, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise and the growth rate expands, indicating that industrial contradictions are accumulating and there are no structural contradictions [1]. Summary by Category Inventory Quantity and Change - **Total Inventory**: The current inventory is 11,422,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 174,420 tons (1.55%), and a month-on-month decrease of 1,339,850 tons (-10.50%) [1]. - **High-grade Australian Powder**: The current inventory is 1,618,360 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 35,320 tons (-2.14%), and a year-on-year decrease of 719,490 tons (-30.78%) [1]. - **Brazilian Powder Ore**: The current inventory is 2,072,310 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6,570 tons (0.32%), and a year-on-year increase of 518,240 tons (33.35%) [1]. - **Medium-grade Australian Powder**: The current inventory is 714,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 114,130 tons (19.02%), and a month-on-month decrease of 46,600 tons (-6.12%) [1]. - **Australian Lump**: The current inventory is 1,003,890 tons, a week-on-week increase of 40,670 tons (4.22%), and a year-on-year increase of 109,850 tons (12.29%) [1]. - **Pellet Ore**: The current inventory is 36,730 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,660 tons (40.89%), and a year-on-year decrease of 76,810 tons (-67.65%) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 5, 2025, the stock indices oscillated throughout the day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1894.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The current market logic is the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - positive expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds. Both the upward and downward driving forces of the stock indices are insufficient. In November, the incremental signals from the policy side have weakened, and although external risk factors have eased, uncertainties still exist, limiting the upward driving force of the stock indices. As the stock valuation has significantly increased, investors' enthusiasm for chasing high prices is not strong, and the profit - taking intention of profitable funds has risen. The logic of valuation repair has gradually shifted to the logic of performance fundamentals, and there is still a need for short - term technical consolidation of the stock indices. In general, the stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term. - Currently, the implied volatility of options is at a relatively low historical quantile level. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, the idea of bull spreads or covered calls is maintained [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Option Indicators - **Index Performance**: On November 5, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.19% to close at 3.150; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.13% to close at 4.735; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) remained unchanged at 4.881; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.19% to close at 4627.26; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.39% to close at 7464.86; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.23% to close at 7.330; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.21% to close at 2.930; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.96% to close at 3.142; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.20% to close at 3.526; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.17% to close at 3007.97; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 0.34% to close at 1.46; and the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 0.21% to close at 1.41 [6]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The report provides the volume PCR and open interest PCR data of various options on November 5, 2025, and their comparison with the previous trading day, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options, and E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options [7]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The 2025 November at - the - money implied volatility and 30 - trading - day historical volatility of various options are presented, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options, and E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options [8][9]. 3.2 Related Charts - **50ETF Options**: Charts include the 50ETF trend, 50ETF option volatility, 50ETF option volume PCR, 50ETF option open interest PCR, 50ETF option implied volatility curve, and 50ETF option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [10][11][12]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, SSE 300ETF option volatility, SSE 300ETF option volume PCR, SSE 300ETF option open interest PCR, SSE 300ETF option implied volatility curve, and SSE 300ETF option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [21][22][23]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, SZSE 300ETF option volatility, SZSE 300ETF option volume PCR, SZSE 300ETF option open interest PCR, SZSE 300ETF option implied volatility curve, and SZSE 300ETF option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [34][35][36]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts contain the CSI 300 index trend, CSI 300 index option volatility, CSI 300 index option volume PCR, CSI 300 index option open interest PCR, CSI 300 index option implied volatility curve, and CSI 300 index option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [46][47]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 1000 index trend, CSI 1000 index option volatility, CSI 1000 index option volume PCR, CSI 1000 index option open interest PCR, CSI 1000 index option implied volatility curve, and CSI 1000 index option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [48][49][50]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 500ETF trend, SSE 500ETF option volatility, SSE 500ETF option volume PCR, SSE 500ETF option open interest PCR, SSE 500ETF option implied volatility curve, and SSE 500ETF option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [61][62][63]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 500ETF trend, SZSE 500ETF option volatility, SZSE 500ETF option volume PCR, SZSE 500ETF option open interest PCR, SZSE 500ETF option implied volatility curve, and SZSE 500ETF option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [74][75][76]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Charts include the ChiNext ETF trend, ChiNext ETF option volatility, ChiNext ETF option volume PCR, ChiNext ETF option open interest PCR, ChiNext ETF option implied volatility curve, and ChiNext ETF option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [87][88][89]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts cover the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, Shenzhen 100ETF option volatility, Shenzhen 100ETF option volume PCR, Shenzhen 100ETF option open interest PCR, Shenzhen 100ETF option implied volatility curve, and Shenzhen 100ETF option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [100][101][102]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts involve the SSE 50 index trend, SSE 50 index option volatility, SSE 50 index option volume PCR, SSE 50 index option open interest PCR, SSE 50 index option implied volatility curve, and SSE 50 index option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [113][114][115]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Charts include the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option volatility, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option volume PCR, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option open interest PCR, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option implied volatility curve, and Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [126][127][128]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option volatility, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option volume PCR, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option open interest PCR, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option implied volatility curve, and E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF option all - term at - the - money implied volatility [137][138][139].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Daily Report on Non-ferrous Metals [4] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views Copper - Today, copper prices dived in the morning and stabilized and rebounded during the day, with a slight decline in open interest. Recently, the global macro - atmosphere has weakened, putting significant pressure on copper prices, but the intraday market sentiment has improved. At the industrial level, as copper prices declined, the downstream restocking willingness has recovered, and the spot premium has strengthened. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at 85,000 [6]. Aluminum - Today, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, indicating an increase in the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. Recently, the macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the non - ferrous sector has declined collectively, but aluminum prices are relatively resistant to decline. At the industrial level, the inventory of downstream aluminum rods has decreased, while the inventory of mid - stream electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Nickel - Today, nickel prices first declined and then rose, regaining the 120,000 mark in the afternoon. Recently, non - ferrous metals have seen an increase in open interest during the decline and a decrease during the rebound, showing a significant difference in volume - price relationship compared with copper and aluminum. The weakness at the industrial level has made funds more inclined to short - allocate nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 120,000 mark [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 5, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper was reported at 85,335 yuan/ton. According to copper enameled wire enterprises, as copper prices have fallen, the downstream order volume has increased recently, and the enameled wire orders have improved compared with last week [10]. Nickel - On November 5, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 122,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [26][28][30] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [39][41][44]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.21%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹供应回升，而需求季节性改善，供需双增局面下螺纹基本面并未好 转，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计后续走势延续弱势寻 底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.85%日跌幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷高供应、高库存局面未变，且需求隐忧未退，基本面并无实质 性好转，产业逻辑主导下热卷承压走弱，关注钢厂限产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.26%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石供应偏高，而需求持续走弱，矿石基本面表现不佳，现实逻 辑主导下高估值矿价继续承压走弱，关注钢材表现情况。 作者声明 本人具 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 原油 偏弱格局难改 宝城期货 陈栋 在当前全球经济弱复苏、能源转型加速与地缘格局深刻演变的背景下，全球原油市场正面临多重逻辑 交织下的结构性重构。受益于南美地缘风险加剧，本周以来，国内外原油期货溢价空间提升，从而推动油 价小幅反弹。不过面对供应过剩的担忧，原油缺乏持续上行动力。预计未来原油市场的主要逻辑仍是供需 宽松下的价格承压，地缘扰动虽存但难以扭转趋势。 宏观因子受压制 油价缺乏反弹动力 目前美国政府仍在持续停摆，政府部门缺失风险加剧了财政不确定性。虽然短期未直接冲击能源供应 链，但削弱了市场对美国经济韧性的信心，间接压制风险偏好。与此同时，美联储 9 月至 10 月连续降息 虽释放流动性，却未能有效传导至实体需求端，全球制造业 PMI 持续徘徊于荣枯线附近，令原油终端消费 预期持续下修。中美新一轮经贸谈判虽释放缓和信号，有助于稳定全球贸易预期，但在能源领域尚未达成 实质性合作框架，短期内难以扭转原油需求增长疲软的格局。宏观因子整体呈现"流动性宽松但需求疲弱" 的矛盾特征，难以单独驱动油价趋势性上行。 地缘扰动影响力下降 地缘政治方面 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 5, 2025, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data for different dates from October 29 to November 4, 2025, shows that the basis was - 31.4 on October 29 - 30, - 31.4 on October 31, - 21.4 on November 3, and - 13.4 on November 4. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 during this period [1][2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are provided for different dates from October 29 to November 4, 2025. For example, the basis of fuel oil was - 75.56 on October 29 [7] Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are presented for different dates. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 875 on October 29, - 600 on October 30, - 285 on October 31, - 445 on November 3, and - 275 on November 4 [9] - Inter - month spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber is 75 [11] - Inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are provided for different dates [11] Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown for different dates from October 29 to November 4, 2025. For example, the basis of rebar was 117 on October 29, 104 on October 30 - 31, 131 on November 3, and 146 on November 4 [21] - Inter - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar is 67.0 [20] - Inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are provided for different dates [20] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are given for different dates from October 29 to November 4, 2025. For example, the basis of copper was - 930 on October 29, - 30 on October 30, 750 on October 31, - 490 on November 3, and 650 on November 4 [28] London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided for November 4, 2025 [33] Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are presented for different dates from October 29 to November 4, 2025. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 133 on October 29, - 123 on October 30, - 122 on October 31, - 96 on November 3, and - 35 on November 4 [39] - Inter - month spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 is 41 [39] - Inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are provided for different dates [39] Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are shown for different dates from October 29 to November 4, 2025. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 15.24 on October 29, 19.91 on October 30, 9.27 on October 31, 18.60 on November 3, and 29.70 on November 4 [50] - Inter - month spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the spread of the next - month vs current - month for CSI 300 is - 67.0 [52]

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - The Non-manufacturing PMI: Business Activity in October 2025 was 50.1%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - In September 2025, M1 and M2 increased by 7.2% and 8.4% year-on-year respectively, up from 6.0% and 8.8% in the previous month and -3.3% and 6.8% in the same period last year [1] - In September 2025, exports and imports increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year-on-year respectively, up from 4.3% and 1.2% in the previous month and 2.33% and 0.13% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China hopes the Netherlands will stop interfering in corporate affairs and find a constructive solution to the Nexperia issue [2] - In October 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.7%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, but still in the expansion range [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust trading margins and price limits for alumina futures from November 7 [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the coking coal delivery quality standards [3] - On November 4, 44 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 25 had negative basis [4] 2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally closed lower due to increased market uncertainty [5] - After the implementation of the "Announcement", the price of pure gold jewelry per gram in multiple brands increased by 60 - 70 yuan [5] - As of November 4, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.30% from the previous trading day [5] - Codelco expects its copper production in 2025 to be 1.31 - 1.34 million tons, lower than the previous estimate [5] 2.3 Coking Coal, Steel, and Minerals - As of late October, the price of coking coal (main coking coal) increased by 3.95% month-on-month, reaching a new high since early December 2024 [7] - As of late October, the prices of all coal types in the national circulation field increased, with Shanxi Datun (Q5000) leading the increase [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Development and Reform Commission is paying close attention to the supply, demand, and price of natural gas during the heating season [9] - Canada may adjust its climate change policy, potentially abandoning the emission cap for the oil and gas industry [9] - Oman LNG and Spain's Naturgy signed a memorandum of understanding to explore a long-term LNG supply agreement [9] - Saudi Aramco expects global oil demand to reach 106 million barrels per day in 2025 and remain strong in 2026 [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of late October, most agricultural product prices in the national circulation field increased, with live pigs (outside ternary) leading the increase [12] - As of November 2, the EU's soybean imports in the 2025/2026 period were 3.81 million tons, lower than the same period last year [12] - US soybean exports have decreased significantly, with exports to China in the first eight months of 2025 being only about 5.93 million tons [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - The central bank resumed treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan [13] - On November 5, the central bank conducted a 700-billion-yuan 3-month outright reverse repurchase operation, an equal-volume rollover [13] - On November 4, the central bank conducted a 117.5-billion-yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [14] 3.2 Important News - China will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises and stabilize the global semiconductor supply chain [15] - China and Russia will expand mutual investment and cooperation in various fields [15] - China welcomes Goldman Sachs to continue investing in China [15] - The central bank will adjust monetary policy according to the economic and financial situation [16] - The CSRC will introduce more opening-up measures to enhance the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filings [17] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 5.93622 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [17] - The US federal government will continue to be shut down, and the current shutdown is about to set a new record [18] - The default rate of US office CMBS in October reached 11.8%, exceeding the peak during the 2008 financial crisis [19] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market was weak and volatile, with most interest rate bond yields rising slightly [21] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.67% at 482.64 points, with a trading volume of 56.274 billion yuan [22] - The yields of European and US bonds generally declined [24][25] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1233 against the US dollar, down 8 points from the previous trading day [26] - The US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21 in late New York trading [26] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction on December 1 [27] - Under the background of the "Southbound Connect" expansion, "Fixed Income +" products can allocate dim sum bonds and Chinese dollar bonds [27] - The "first-order inflection point" of the real estate market has appeared, and the absolute value may stabilize in 2026 at the earliest [28] 4. Stock Market News - The CSRC will introduce more opening-up measures to enhance the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filings [30] - The A-share market adjusted with reduced volume, with more than 3,600 stocks falling [30] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.79%, and the Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$9.832 billion [31] - In October, the number of new A-share accounts opened was 2.31 million, a year-on-year decrease of 66% [31] - Since the beginning of this year, Southbound funds have had a cumulative net inflow of over HK$1.27 trillion, setting a new annual record [31] - Since October, well-known foreign institutions have surveyed 309 A-share listed companies [32] - Brokerage institutions expect the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market to improve in 2026 [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, suggesting an oscillation trading approach. The core logic is that the optimistic market atmosphere has cooled, leading to a high - level correction of coking coal [1][5]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "decline" respectively, also suggesting an oscillation trading approach. The core logic is that after the game between bulls and bears, coke is oscillating within a range [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1415.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.80% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no significant change. The upward driving force mainly comes from the anti - involution and the emotional support brought by the easing of Sino - US trade relations. After the macro - level positive factors are realized, the market atmosphere has cooled, and the coking coal futures have corrected at the upper edge of the oscillation range. Future focus should be on the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on coking coal supply [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1560 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overall, the supply of coke has stabilized, the demand has declined, and the fundamentals have weakened marginally. After the previous macro - level positive factors are realized, the market atmosphere has cooled, and the coke futures have corrected at a high level, running within the oscillation range since the end of July [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of domestic thermal coal has stabilized recently, but the optimistic atmosphere in the coal market has not reversed. The price of thermal coal is expected to slow down its upward trend and may maintain a high - level volatile operation [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector (Thermal Coal Spot) 1.1 Core Logic - **Supply**: Although the import volume of foreign - trade coal is stable, more coal mines stop production after completing their production targets at the end of the month. With the central safety production inspection team to be stationed in the main production areas in November, there is an expectation of supply contraction at the end of the year, which supports the coal price [4] - **Demand**: In the north, many places have entered winter due to continuous cooling. In southern coastal cities, the demand declined in the off - season after the cooling in October, but the coal inventory of coastal power plants is low, and there is still restocking demand, which supports the coal market [4] - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.169 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80,000 tons and 2.729 million tons lower than the same period last year. The potential restocking demand of downstream users supports the port coal price [4]