Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is the Baocheng Futures rebar morning report dated July 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is slightly bearish. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices are in high - level sideways movement [2] - The rebar supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. Supply is contracting as weekly output continues to decline, but production cuts may not last due to good profit margins and some product re - production. Demand is seasonally weak, with high - frequency demand indicators at low levels in recent years, suppressing steel prices. Although policy expectations drove up steel prices before, the optimistic sentiment is weakening, and the market logic returns to the industrial side. With cost support from strong raw materials, steel prices are expected to move sideways at high levels. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steelhome today [3] Group 4: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are provided. The short - term and medium - term are sideways, and the intraday is slightly bearish. The view is to focus on the MA5 line support, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and high - level sideways steel prices. There are also explanations for calculating price changes and definitions of different price trends [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - Supply: Weekly output of rebar is declining, but production cuts may not be sustainable due to good profit margins and product re - production. - Demand: Seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators at low levels in recent years, continuing to suppress steel prices. - Market situation: Policy - driven optimism is weakening, and the market logic returns to the industrial side. Cost support from strong raw materials exists. Steel prices are expected to move sideways at high levels, and attention should be paid to today's Steelhome production and sales data [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - With the improvement of macro - factors, the enhancement of cost support from the improvement of the crude oil supply - demand structure, and the fact that asphalt demand is stronger than supply with inventory depletion, it is expected that the domestic asphalt futures 2509 contract will maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Content Macro - factor Impact - The US House of Representatives passed the stablecoin bill, which may alleviate the US debt crisis and strengthen the global dominance of the US dollar. Meanwhile, China's "anti - involution" policy has led to a significant rise in the black and building materials commodity sectors, creating an optimistic macro - atmosphere for the domestic commodity futures market [2]. Crude Oil Market Situation - The global crude oil market shows a situation of strong supply and demand. OPEC + will increase production in August, with an expected daily increase of 548,000 barrels, and may consider another increase of about 548,000 barrels per day in September, but the subsequent increase is expected to decline. Currently, it is the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, and inventory is decreasing. As of July 11, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels week - on - week, and the refinery operating rate was at a high level of 93.9% [3]. Asphalt Supply and Demand - Due to the improvement of the comprehensive profit of asphalt production in domestic refineries in mid - July, the refinery operating rate has slightly increased. As of the week of July 18, the domestic asphalt device maintenance volume decreased by 1.4% week - on - week, and the total weekly output increased slightly by 0.6 tons. The downstream demand is in the peak season, with the sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increasing by 4.0% week - on - week. The asphalt social inventory has slightly decreased, with the sample factory inventory decreasing by 4.1% week - on - week and the sample social inventory decreasing by 33.6% compared with the same period last year [4].

Report Core View - The transportation of lychees in ancient Chang'an and modern futures markets share similarities in aspects such as supply - demand game, time value, risk management, human nature, and information warfare, and true investment wisdom lies in building a sustainable trading system [2][3][5] Similarities between Lychee Transportation and Futures Market Supply - Demand Game - Just as the supply and demand of lychees in Chang'an led to price fluctuations, the supply and demand of commodities in the futures market also determine price changes. Smart investors and ancient merchants both use methods to avoid risks [3] Time Value - The time - related decay of lychee value during transportation is similar to the "time decay" principle of futures contracts. Both ancient and modern people take measures to combat the loss of value [3] Risk Management - In both the lychee business and the futures market, extreme situations can cause price fluctuations. Investors need to use methods like diversifying positions and setting stop - loss points to manage risks [3] Human Nature - Greed and fear in the futures market are similar to the power games in Chang'an. Overcoming human weaknesses is crucial for successful investment [4] Information Warfare - Information about lychees and court dynamics in ancient times is similar to market information in modern futures trading. Investors need to build their own analysis frameworks to avoid being misled by information [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 焦煤：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的相关文件，核查范围覆盖 山西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产区。该文件是煤炭行业在本轮反 内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后续供应格局。不过，炼焦 煤主产区山西省在经过 2024 年的"三超整治"后，超产现象得到有效遏 制，因此本轮生产情况核查影响有待持续跟踪。整体来看，随着利多因素 不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升温，驱动焦煤主力合约大幅上行，但需警惕情 绪释放后的短期回调风险。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 黑色金属 | 日报 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - All stock indices rose slightly throughout the day. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.8984 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The recent rebound of stock indices is mainly driven by policy利好 expectations. If the policy support decreases, the upward momentum of stock indices may slow down. Currently, the trading volume is at a relatively high level, indicating that investors have a positive and optimistic risk preference. The anti - involution policy expectations and the super hydropower project have driven up the valuations of related industries, and the overall market sentiment is optimistic, with an upward trend in stock indices. In the short term, stock indices will fluctuate strongly. - The implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the upward trend of stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild long - term view [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On July 23, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.24% to 2.921; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.05% to 4.199; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.12% to 4.331; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.02% to 4119.77; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.45% to 6607.22; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.35% to 6.270; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.32% to 2.507; the GEM ETF fell 0.09% to 2.287; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.17% to 2.921; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.32% to 2801.20; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 0.47% to 1.07; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 0.38% to 1.05 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of the 50ETF option was 58.98 (previous day: 67.28), and the open interest PCR was 131.48 (previous day: 120.32) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of 2025 August at - the - money options of various options were provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the 50ETF option was 13.82%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 8.22% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Option**: Included charts such as the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [9]. - **SSE 300ETF Option**: Included charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [20]. - **SZSE 300ETF Option**: Included charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [23]. - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Included charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [37]. - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: Included charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [50]. - **SSE 500ETF Option**: Included charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [63]. - **SZSE 500ETF Option**: Included charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [75]. - **GEM ETF Option**: Included charts of the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [87]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option**: Included charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [100]. - **SSE 50 Index Option**: Included charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [113]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Included charts of the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [127]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Included charts of the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [130].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On July 23, 2025, Treasury bond futures oscillated with a slight pullback, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and rebounding throughout the day. Recently, the China-US economic and trade situation has tended to ease. Coupled with the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite in the capital market, Treasury bond futures have had a short - term pullback. However, the current market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is relatively limited, which means the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, and the LPR remained unchanged in July. In the short term, the upward space for Treasury bond futures is also relatively limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News - On July 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, the same as before. Since 520.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured on this day, the net withdrawal of funds on the day was 369.6 billion yuan [4]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the futures market conditions of rubber, methanol, and crude oil on July 23, 2025, including market trends, industrial dynamics, and spot prices [4][6][7]. Core Views - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Supported by positive factors, it is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Due to the divergence between long and short positions, it is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The 2508 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. With the digestion of production - increase negatives and the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable pattern [7]. Industrial Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous period. The inventory in bonded areas decreased by 1.39%, and that in general trade decreased by 0.13%. The entry and exit rates of warehouses decreased [9]. - As of July 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points [9]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million for the first time, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [9][10]. Methanol - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, and coal (methanol) to olefins had different changes. The futures profit of methanol to olefins was - 53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 567,600 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 67,900 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,500 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The US daily crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels [14]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly week - on - week, the Cushing crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the strategic petroleum reserve decreased slightly. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9% [14]. - As of July 15, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [15]. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,005 yuan/ton | -55 yuan/ton | -35 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,467 yuan/ton | +35 yuan/ton | 2,411 yuan/ton | -46 yuan/ton | 56 yuan/ton | +46 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.5 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 503.7 yuan/barrel | -0.6 yuan/barrel | -24.2 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | [17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强运行 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏强 | 中期 | 日内 偏强 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 煤炭期价上涨，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：国内甲醇产能持续释放，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供应预 期逐渐增大，港口迎来累库周期，而下游需求则步入淡季，供需结构趋于宽松。在经历前期大幅回 调以后，利空情绪 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of IH2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the overall reference view is upward. The core logic is that the stock index rebounded slightly yesterday, with a high trading volume indicating positive investor risk preference, driven by policy利好 expectations. However, the upward momentum may slow down due to potential capital rotation, and attention should be paid to the policy statements of the Politburo meeting [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, different time - cycle views are provided: short - term (oscillatory), medium - term (upward), intraday (oscillatory and bullish), and the overall view is upward, with the core logic being the strong support from policy利好 expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and rose slightly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1928.6 billion yuan, 201.5 billion yuan more than the previous day, indicating positive investor risk preference. The rebound of the stock index is driven by policy利好 expectations, such as anti - involution policies benefiting related industries and the start of a super hydropower project boosting infrastructure stocks. But the upward momentum may slow down due to potential capital rotation, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting's policy statements [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is oscillating on the strong side, and the intraday view is oscillating on the weak side. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials boost the price of steel, causing it to oscillate higher [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Although the steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season, positive expectations are fermenting, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. The market sentiment is warm, supporting the steel price to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term trend is a rise, the medium - term is oscillating on the strong side, and the intraday is oscillating on the weak side. The reference is to focus on the MA5 line support, with the core logic of strong raw materials boosting steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The strong performance of coking coal and coke boosts market sentiment, and the steel price continues the strong upward trend. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The rebar output has decreased month - on - month, and the supply continues to shrink. But due to good profit per ton and the return of production from some varieties, the output will rise again, with limited positive effects. The rebar demand continues to be weakly stable. The weekly apparent demand has decreased month - on - month, and although high - frequency transactions have increased due to speculative demand, both are at the low levels in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics [3]. - Currently, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season, but positive expectations are fermenting, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. The market sentiment is warm, supporting the steel price to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].