Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report predicts that both the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract and the synthetic rubber futures 2508 contract will likely maintain a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday, June 18, 2025 [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "volatile", and the intraday view is "weakly volatile". The reference view is "weak operation" [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the missile exchanges between Iran and Israel over the weekend, Iran took the initiative to ease tensions. The market's concerns about the conflict may subside, and geopolitical factors have weakened. On the night of Monday, domestic energy and chemical commodities such as crude oil and methanol declined, and the bullish sentiment diminished. The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained a narrow - range volatile consolidation, with the price slightly rising 0.33% to 13,875 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "volatile", and the intraday view is "weakly volatile". The reference view is "weak operation" [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, due to the weakening of geopolitical factors and the decline of domestic energy and chemical commodities on the night of Monday, the synthetic rubber futures 2508 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation, with the price slightly rising 0.22% to 11,300 yuan/ton [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of methanol 2509 is weakening, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the intraday view is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is a weakening trend. The main reason is that the geopolitical factors have weakened, and the previous gains of methanol have been reversed. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Methanol Market Situation - After the missile exchanges between Iran and Israel over the weekend, Iran took the initiative to ease the tense relationship, and the market's concerns about the conflict may cool down, leading to a weakening of geopolitical factors [5]. - Iran is an important methanol producer and exporter globally, with an annual methanol production capacity of over 20 million tons, accounting for about 15% of the global total capacity, and an annual export volume of about 8 million tons. More than half of China's 13.5 million tons of imported methanol in 2024 came from Iran [5]. - Currently, 4 sets of methanol plants in Iran with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons have been confirmed to be shut down, and the operating load of the remaining plants is low [5]. - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract declined slightly by 1.19% to 2417 yuan/ton [5].

Report Overview - Report Name: Baocheng Futures' Morning Report on Beans and Oils (June 17, 2025) [1] - Research Focus: Commodity futures in the agricultural products sector, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of the beans and oils market is positive, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil all being either "strong" or "slightly strong" [5][6][7][9] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly strong, medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is slightly strong [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The positive outlook of the US biofuel policy boosts the demand for US soybean crushing. As US soybeans enter the weather - sensitive period, they tend to rise. The domestic soybean market is supported by the US soybean futures price, and the upward trend continues. The linkage between beans and oils is strengthening. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect the market [5][7] Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Intraday and medium - term views are strong, and the reference view is strong [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: The improving outlook for US bio - energy demand has led to the US soybean oil futures price hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days, which significantly boosts the domestic oils and fats sector. The strengthening of international oil prices also has a spill - over effect on the oils and fats sector. Although the domestic oil mill's soybean oil inventory is still accumulating, the market trading logic focuses on the US soybean oil in the external market and the cost support of raw soybeans, making the soybean oil futures price turn strong [8] Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Intraday and medium - term views are strong, and the reference view is strong [7][9] - **Core Logic**: The overall oils and fats market is strong. The strong performance of US soybean oil futures and the strengthening of international oil prices have made the biodiesel attribute of palm oil prominent. Market sentiment has improved significantly, and funds have flowed back into the palm oil market. With the enhanced linkage between beans and oils, the oils and fats market has entered a rebound channel, and domestic palm oil has shown high price elasticity and led the rebound of the oils and fats sector [9]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-17 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘因素弱化，原油回吐涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏强 | 中期 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着上周末伊朗和以色列经历几轮导弹互轰以后，伊朗主动释放缓和与以色列紧张关系， 市场担忧冲突可能会降温，地缘因素减弱。作为全球重要的原油生产与出口国，2025 年 4 月伊朗原 油产量达 330.5 万桶/日。除了自身产油实力强大外，伊朗的地理位置也具备遏制其他中东产油国外 运能 ...

网址：www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 1、国内港口到货量 运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 24 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2517.50 万吨，环比降 156.40 万吨，再度有所回落；减量最大为巴西矿，环比 降 184.00 万吨，多因前期低发运所致，持续性不强；澳矿环比增 43.70 万吨，非澳巴矿微降 16.10 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运高位回落，全球 19 港矿石发运总量为 3352.70 万吨，环比降 157.70 万吨。主流矿商 发运增减互现，合计量环比微降 11.69 万吨；其中巴西矿环比增 26.80 万吨，小幅回升；而澳矿发运减 100.00 万吨，非澳巴矿降 84.50 万吨，两者仍处于年内相对高位。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量减量有限，海外矿石供应维持高位。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，矿价偏弱震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石基本面有所走弱，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗高位回落，且后续存有减量空间，需 求弱势格局延续。同时，港口到货再度回落，而海外矿商发运环比减量，但依旧处于年内高位，按船 期推算后续到货再度回升，海外矿石供应延续高位，相应的内矿供应弱稳运行，矿石供应压力未缓解。 综上， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is volatile due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures index sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall view is volatile. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. The key factors are the narrowing fluctuations of Treasury bond futures, the easing of market risk - aversion sentiment as the intensity of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis is less likely to escalate, weak credit demand from the real sector despite government bonds supporting social financing data, rising expectations of future monetary policy easing, and the need to focus on the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on Wednesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is slightly bullish, with a core logic of weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall view is volatile. The driving factors are the narrow - range fluctuations of Treasury bond futures, the easing of market risk - aversion sentiment, weak real - sector credit demand, rising expectations of monetary policy easing, and the need to focus on the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening in the off - season, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is seasonally weakening, and steel prices are under pressure. However, inventories are being depleted at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand changes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is the weakening of fundamentals in the off - season and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken seasonally. Steel mills mainly ensure the supply of plates, and rebar production has been continuously decreasing, with supply contracting to a relatively low level. Rebar demand remains weak, with weekly apparent demand continuing to decline and high - frequency transactions operating at a low level, showing off - season characteristics. The supply - demand pattern is seasonally weakening, and steel prices are under pressure, but inventory depletion at a low level means less real - world contradiction. The short - term trend is low - level volatility, and demand changes should be monitored [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with the medium - term view being upward and the intraday view being oscillating strongly. Policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, but the upward momentum of the stock index is insufficient due to concerns about weakening macro - demand [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The reference view is range - bound, and the core logic is that policy - side positive expectations form strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is upward. The reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes closed slightly up in oscillation yesterday. The Middle - East geopolitical crisis continues but with reduced escalation risk, and market risk - aversion has declined. May's social financing, credit, and consumption data show that government bonds are the main contributor to social financing, but the real - sector's financing demand is weak, so policy - side support is still needed. The stock index has sufficient downward support. Attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th. Market sentiment is restricted by concerns about weakening macro - demand, and the upward momentum of the stock index is insufficient [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, and the overall financial support for the real economy remains stable. Fiscal and industrial policies work together with monetary policy to promote economic recovery [2][14]. - The real - estate market continues to consolidate its stabilization and recovery trend. The State Council Executive Meeting proposes to optimize policies and promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [13]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, impacting the global market. Global funds are flowing into the crude - oil market, and the trading volume of US crude - oil options has soared [6]. - In the bond market, the Chinese bond market shows a slightly strong and volatile trend. The yields of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market decline, and the yields of European and US bonds generally rise [20][23][24]. - In the stock market, short - term events may provide investment opportunities. After sentiment recovery, internal factors will determine the market trend. The pan - technology direction and Hong Kong stocks are favored [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q1 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly down from the previous month and lower than the same period last year. - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 1.5%, and 8.0% respectively, with M0 and M2 increasing compared to the previous month and the same period last year, while M1 decreased slightly compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation, and the financial support for the real economy remains stable [2]. - The CSRC solicits public opinions on the "Regulations on the Classification and Evaluation of Futures Companies (Draft for Comment)", optimizing the evaluation criteria and process [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange reminds investors to prevent risks and maintain market stability [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - Since 2025, the international gold price has risen rapidly. In May, the price fluctuated greatly, and recently it has risen again due to geopolitical tensions. The domestic gold - jewelry price has also started to rise [3]. - In May 2025, global physical gold ETFs had an outflow of about $1.8 billion, ending five consecutive months of inflows [3]. - As of June 12, the inventories of various metals on the London Metal Exchange, such as tin, copper, and aluminum, decreased to varying degrees [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that central - bank gold purchases will drive the gold price to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid - 2026 [4]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early June 2025, the circulation - field price of coke and rebar decreased month - on - month, with the coke price hitting a record low [5]. - Dundee Precious Metals will acquire silver - mine producer Adriatic Metals for about $1.251 billion [5]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Kuwait sets different prices for its crude oil sold to different regions in July [6]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, and global funds are flowing into the crude - oil market. The trading volume of US crude - oil options has soared [6]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of June 15, the sales volume and price of live pigs of some listed breeding companies decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [8]. - The national summer - sown grain progress is over half, faster than in previous years [8]. - As of early June 2025, most agricultural - product prices in the national circulation field decreased, with the price of soybean meal hitting a new low since July 2020, while the price of soybeans increased [8][9]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 182 billion yuan of MLFs will mature. Last week, the central bank conducted 858.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan in the open market [10][11]. - On June 13, the central bank conducted 202.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6.75 billion yuan [11]. 3.3.2 Important News - The article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes the importance of formulating and implementing medium - and long - term plans for economic and social development [12]. - The real - estate market continues to consolidate its stabilization and recovery trend. The State Council Executive Meeting proposes to optimize policies to promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [13]. - The central bank will conduct 40 billion yuan of outright reverse - repurchases on June 16, providing medium - term liquidity support [15]. - Iran and Israel launch a new round of military strikes against each other, and China urges both sides to resolve disputes through dialogue [15][16]. - The central bank renews the bilateral local - currency swap agreement with the Central Bank of Turkey, and the total scale of swap agreements with other countries and regions reaches about 4.5 trillion yuan [16]. - Shanghai encourages state - owned and private enterprises to cooperate and develop a mixed - ownership economy [17]. - Hong Kong has become a safe haven for international funds, and the Hong Kong dollar will maintain the linked - exchange - rate system [18]. - Guangzhou proposes to reduce consumption restrictions and optimize real - estate policies [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market shows a slightly strong and volatile trend. The yields of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market decline, and the yields of European and US bonds generally rise [20][23][24]. - The prices of some bonds in the exchange - bond market rise and fall, and the convertible - bond index generally declines [21]. - The yields of national bonds and policy - bank bonds in the primary market are determined, and the repurchase - fixed - rate in the inter - bank market mostly rises [22]. 3.3.4 Foreign - Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rises, and the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar is raised. The US dollar index rises, and most non - US currencies fall [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huachuang Securities believes that the short - end bond market may be boosted by the growth of wealth - management scale in July. After the cross - quarter period, the CD pricing may approach 1.60% [26]. - Huafu Securities points out that factors such as large CD maturities and positive results of Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an increase in bond yields, but the adjustment range is limited [26][27]. 3.4 Stock - Market Important News - On June 16, the regular adjustment of A - share indexes takes effect, involving multiple Shanghai, Shenzhen, and cross - market indexes [29]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will implement the "Eight Measures for the Science and Technology Innovation Board" and support the development of science - and technology enterprises [30]. - The short - term decline caused by geopolitical events may provide investment opportunities. After sentiment recovery, the pan - technology direction and Hong Kong stocks are favored [30]. - Shenzhen may pilot the secondary listing of red - chip stocks, providing a more convenient listing channel for science - and technology enterprises [30]. - Brokerages focus on the valuation repair of Chinese assets in the A - share market in the second half of the year and are generally optimistic about the Hong Kong - stock market, especially the technology sector [31].