Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The military conflict between Iran and Israel has led to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants, significantly impacting the global methanol market and the Chinese futures market. In the short term, Iran's supply disruption has caused international energy market turmoil and affected the Chinese methanol futures market. In the long - term, it will accelerate China's diversification of methanol imports and domestic substitution, upgrade the industrial chain risk management system, and prompt strategic reserve and regulatory optimization policies [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Introduction: Middle East Situation Changes and Impact on Iranian Methanol Plants On June 13, 2025, after five rounds of US - Iran nuclear negotiations, Israel launched a "decapitation operation" against Iranian military leaders and bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering strong retaliation from Iran. As a result, many Iranian oil, energy, natural gas, and methanol facilities were affected. On June 15, 4 methanol plants with a total annual capacity of 6.6 million tons in Iran were suspected to be shut down for maintenance, and the remaining plants were operating at low loads [9]. 3.2 Chapter 1: Decreased Supply Expectations and Strong Uptrend of Methanol The military conflict between Israel and Iran on June 13, 2025, led to the shutdown of key Iranian methanol production plants. The supply disruption caused international energy market turmoil and affected the Chinese methanol futures market. With the expected decrease in external supply, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract rose significantly on June 14, with a maximum increase of 5.71%. On June 17, the price continued to rise by 4.63% [10]. 3.3 Chapter 2 & 3: Impact of Iranian Shutdown on the Global Methanol Market - **Short - term supply gap and difficulty in finding substitutes**: Other major exporters like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and New Zealand have capacity bottlenecks, transportation issues, and contract constraints, making it hard to fill Iran's supply gap. European buyers turning to American sources face high costs and long - cycle transportation [20]. - **Adjustment of China's import structure and inventory pressure**: China will adjust its import sources, but Saudi methanol has inflexible long - term contracts, North American sources are affected by seasonal demand and transportation, and South American sources lack price competitiveness. This may lead to a rapid decline in domestic port inventories [22][24]. - **Cost transmission and开工率 fluctuations in the production end**: The increase in international methanol prices due to Iranian shutdown will push up domestic spot prices. Some small and medium - sized methanol enterprises may reduce or halt production, while large coal - chemical enterprises may adjust raw material ratios. Overall, the industry's开工率 is under downward pressure [25]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Methanol Price Transmission Mechanism and Futures Market Reaction No specific content provided in the given text. 3.5 Chapter 5: Short - term Impact Analysis of the Domestic Methanol Futures Market - **Price trend and volatility characteristics**: In the initial 1 - 3 days of the conflict, methanol futures prices showed a pulsed increase with larger intraday fluctuations. The price increase may slow down and enter a consolidation phase. If the Iranian plants are repaired faster than expected or alternative supplies are effective, prices may fall [26]. - **Position structure and capital flow**: The futures market's position structure will change. Industrial clients may increase hedging positions, and speculative clients will have different trading strategies. Risk - averse funds may flow into the methanol market [27]. - **Delivery risk and warehouse receipt liquidity**: Rising futures prices may cause delivery pressure on long positions. Strict quality standards for warehouse receipt registration, limited warehouse capacity, and delayed arrival of imported methanol may exacerbate delivery risks [28]. 3.6 Chapter 6: Long - term Impact and Structural Changes - **Accelerated import diversification and enhanced domestic substitution**: China will seek more long - term contracts with countries like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar, and expand trade with North and South America. Domestic coal - to - methanol enterprises will be encouraged to upgrade technology, reducing import dependence [30]. - **Optimization of the industrial chain risk management system**: Enterprises will strengthen inventory management, establish multi - source supply channels, and use more refined hedging strategies. Financial institutions may introduce more methanol - related structured products [31]. - **Policy regulation and strategic reserve construction**: The government may introduce policies to support the methanol industry and explore the establishment of a national reserve system for methanol to enhance market stability [32]. 3.7 Chapter 7: Conclusion and Outlook The military conflict between Iran and Israel has had a profound impact on the global methanol market and the Chinese futures market. In the short term, it has disrupted supply and affected prices. In the long term, it will drive China's import diversification, domestic substitution, and the improvement of the risk management system and policies [33].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply - demand pattern of rebar weakens seasonally, pressuring the steel price. However, inventory is decreasing at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have not improved, and the price is under pressure. But overseas risks are easing, so it is expected that the price will continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuates weakly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, and the fundamentals are weakening, pressuring the ore price. The relatively positive factor is the large discount of the futures price. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [4][39]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, Shanghai's urban infrastructure investment increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and the city's total social fixed - asset investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year [6]. - In May 2025, the production of commercial vehicles was 336,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%), and the sales were 335,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%). From January to May, the production and sales were 1.746 million and 1.753 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.2% and 1.2% [7]. - Australian mining company Tempest Minerals announced the test results of the Remorse iron ore project, with an iron ore grade of up to 70%, and most samples have an iron content of over 68% and extremely low impurity levels [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price is 3,060 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,229 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price is 3,190 yuan, Tianjin is 3,110 yuan, and the national average is 3,233 yuan. - Other products: The price of Tangshan billet is 2,920 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,100 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 714 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,981 | 0.17 | 1,046,277 | - 491,145 | 2,140,997 | - 23,735 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,093 | 0.13 | 353,677 | - 249,865 | 1,522,669 | - 5,724 | | Iron ore | 699.0 | - 0.07 | 319,182 | - 219,028 | 675,663 | - 9,829 | [11] Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Includes charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [13][14][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Includes charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron ore concentrate inventory [20][21][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Includes charts of 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation [28][29][31]. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both declining. Supply is at a low level for the year, and inventory is decreasing, which supports the steel price. However, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand is seasonally weak, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is a low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to demand changes [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Although production has decreased due to steel mill maintenance, it is still at a high level for the year, and supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Demand is weakly stable, and industry contradictions are accumulating. Overseas risks are easing, and the price is expected to continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern weakens as expected, and inventory is accumulating. Steel mill production is weak in the off - season, and ore consumption is declining. Supply remains at a high level. The price is under pressure, and the futures price discount is large. The price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly around 78,500 yuan. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, risk appetite rebounded, and the gold price continued to fall. On the industrial level, on June 16th, the weekly inventory of electrolytic copper in social warehouses slightly decreased, and the spread between July and August contracts rebounded. With a warming macro - atmosphere and strong industrial support, the copper price may continue to rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the aluminum price increased in volume and open interest, and the main contract price approached the 20,500 - yuan mark. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, and risk appetite rebounded. On the industrial level, domestic demand was good, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline. As the futures price rises, downstream demand may be affected, and the spread between July and August contracts has declined. It is expected that the futures price will remain strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the nickel price decreased in volume and open interest, breaking below the 119,000 - yuan mark. Since last week, nickel has shown weakness in the non - ferrous metals sector, mainly due to its industrial weakness and news - related impacts. Since last Wednesday, the market has expected that the Philippines may cancel the ban on ore export policies, and the support previously provided to the futures price by the strong nickel ore market has weakened. Technically, this week, the futures price broke below the 120,000 - yuan mark, with strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Aluminum**: On June 16th, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May 2025, the added value of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative added value from January to May increased by 7.1% year - on - year. The output of ten non - ferrous metals in May was 6.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the cumulative output from January to May was 33.4 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in May was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to May was 18.59 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0% [9]. - **Nickel**: On June 17th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,990 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Russian nickel was +600 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,090 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,240 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 117,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social warehouses + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE copper warrant inventory [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 17, the closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%. The position was 51,143 lots, a decrease of 728 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quoted price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,401 yuan/ton. Coke is in a pattern of double - decline in supply and demand, and the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging. Recently, the marginal decline in coking coal production, combined with geopolitical events, has strengthened the cost support for coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize [5][31]. - From January to May, coking coal futures continued to decline. The recent change in market sentiment is due to supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations from international events. For coking coal hitting an 8 - year low, short - and medium - term adjustments are reasonable. However, it will take time to reverse the current pattern of loose supply. Without policy intervention, supply pressure may return after July. The impact of the Sino - US London economic and trade consultation on the terminal demand for ferrous metals is limited, and the key factor may be whether the Israel - Iran conflict will trigger a new round of international energy price increases. Since June 3, the price of the coking coal 2509 contract has stopped falling and gradually increased, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation [6][32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Industry News - On June 16, US President Trump said that the US would postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that at the US request, a new round of bilateral consultations between Russia and the US to normalize diplomatic relations had been cancelled [8]. - On June 17, in the online auction of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market, 0.3 million tons of low - sulfur main coking coal failed to be sold, and the starting price was 1,070 yuan/ton. For high - sulfur lean coal, 1 million tons were sold at a price of 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from June 13 [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke flat - warehouse price was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 5.22%, an annual decline of 24.85%, and a year - on - year decline of 36.18%. Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was 1,180 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.28%, an annual decline of 27.16%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.80% [10]. - The price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decline of 2.81%, a monthly decline of 5.98%, an annual decline of 26.69%, and a year - on - year decline of 45.94%. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%, a monthly decline of 4.72%, an annual decline of 18.79%, and a year - on - year decline of 43.46%. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.10%, an annual decline of 18.30%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.02% [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%, a maximum price of 1,378.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,357.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 20,990 lots, a volume difference of - 9,838 lots, a position of 51,143 lots, and a position difference of - 728 lots [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal active contract was 789.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a maximum price of 808.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 785.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 1,019,537 lots, a volume difference of - 9,258 lots, a position of 562,767 lots, and a position difference of - 16,234 lots [13]. Related Charts - Charts show the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mills' coking plants, ports, etc.) on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025, as well as other related data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][26][28] Market Outlook - The coke market has limited fundamental positives, but the cost - side support from coking coal has increased, driving the price to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level. Continued attention should be paid to the raw material side [5][31]. - The coking coal market has seen a short - and medium - term price rebound, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation. A phased rebound approach is recommended, but beware of the falsification of the upward logic [6][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The latest credit data for May shows that the financing demand of the real sector remains weak, and the policy side needs to play a role in supporting demand in the future. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased, providing a solid bottom - support for Treasury bond futures with low downside risk. Considering the recent issuance of outright reverse repurchases by the central bank to inject liquidity into the market, the expectation of a decline in market interest rates has risen. The Lujiazui Forum on the 18th will issue financial policy guidelines, and the expectation of policy benefits has pushed up the price of Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, with strong bottom - support [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - On June 17, the People's Bank of China conducted 197.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 197.3 billion yuan and an operating rate of 1.40%. Data shows that there were 380.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and MLF maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 183.3 billion yuan from the open market. On June 16, the People's Bank of China announced the issuance of central bank bills, to be tendered and issued in Hong Kong on June 18, 2025, the fourth - phase central bank bills with a term of 6 months, a fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond, with principal and interest repaid at maturity, and an issuance volume of 3 billion yuan. On June 16, the People's Bank of China conducted 400 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 6 months (182 days) [4] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and central bank open - market operations [5][7][10][16]

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 低位震荡 | 利多因素增加，焦煤偏强震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位震荡 核心逻辑：前 5 月份焦煤期货持续下行，而近期市场情绪的转变主要源于焦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is expected to remain stable in the short - term. Although the previous supply - guarantee measures have led to sufficient inventory in the industry chain, suppressing the upward space of coal prices, the marginal tightening of supply and the marginal strengthening of demand make it difficult for coal prices to fall [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side - Recent safety production and environmental protection requirements during the national safety production month have had a certain impact on coal mine production. Since the end of May, coal mine accidents in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have increased, leading to tighter safety supervision in the main production areas, but with a limited impact on overall output [4]. - In May 2025, the national import of coal and lignite was 36.0401 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. Both coal production and imports have started to tighten marginally [4]. 3.2 Demand Side - As of June 5, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.718 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 thousand tons per day; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.136 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33 thousand tons per day [4]. - The "Climate Trend Forecast from June 23 to July 8" released by the National Climate Center shows that during this period, the temperature in most parts of China will be close to or higher than the same period of the year, indicating good support for the demand of thermal coal during the peak summer season [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 中东局势紧张，避险需求推升金 价 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 市场预期菲律宾将解除禁矿，上 游矿端承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：6 月 13 日以色列向伊朗发动空袭， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-17 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 月值 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | | | 比 | | | | | | 202506 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/16 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/13 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/12 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/11 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/10 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...