投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 9 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡整理，小幅上涨。从宏观政策的角度看，8 月经济数据表现偏弱说 明内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，9 月美联储启动降息使得人民币汇率端压力大大减小，未来货币政 策偏宽松的可能性较高，对国债期货下方具有较强支撑。不过短期内政策利率下降的可能性不高，需 要等待后续的政策出台契机，短期内降息预期消退，国债期货反弹动能有所不足。总的来说，短期内 上行动能与下行空间均较为有限，预计短期内国债期货以低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-09-29 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.40 | 49.30 | 49.10 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.10 | 50.30 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.70 | 11.80 | 12.2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily arbitrage data for various futures commodities on September 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of these commodities. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis for power coal on September 26, 2025, was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 25, 24, and 23, and - 96.4 yuan/ton on September 22. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented, along with the price ratios. For example, on September 26, the basis of INE crude oil was 13.13 yuan/ton, and the price ratio was 0.1417 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. For instance, on September 26, the basis of rubber was - 770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2261 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.94 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of rebar was 126.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented. On September 26, the basis of copper was 40 yuan/ton [28]. London Market - For LME non - ferrous metals on September 26, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (38.91), and the import profit and loss was (452.74) [33]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 125 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 33 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.81 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the basis of CSI 300 was 25.05 [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next - month vs current - month, next - quarter vs current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.0 [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 短期多头了结意愿上升，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：上周纽约金触及 38 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The power coal supply is stable while the demand weakens seasonally. The spot price is supported by downstream restocking demand in the short term, but the upward momentum is limited after the holiday. Coal prices in October are expected to remain volatile [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: The impact of the previous production capacity verification has eased, and coal mines in the main production areas maintain normal production. However, some coal mines slow down production after completing their production targets at the end of the month. Overall, the supply of thermal coal runs smoothly, while the demand shows a downward trend in the off - season. As of September 25, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.277 billion tons, with a weekly decrease of 2 million tons compared to the previous week, and 158.4 million tons lower than the same period last year. Since September, the water inflow in Sichuan and Yunnan has improved significantly. There have been consecutive all - day negative electricity prices in the Sichuan power spot market due to excessive new energy output, and Inner Mongolia has entered the windy season. The increase in new energy output will suppress the demand for thermal coal [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term and overall views are "oscillating", with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly". The coking coal is expected to oscillate due to increased market wait - and - see sentiment [1][5]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term and overall views are "oscillating", with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly". Coke is expected to have range - bound oscillations as there are intertwined bullish and bearish factors [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Supply**: As of the week of September 26, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 77.2 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 thousand tons, and 2.5 thousand tons lower than the same period last year. The number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port continued to rise, with nearly 8000 trucks passing through in a week [5]. - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 112.78 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 thousand tons [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the coking coal inventory of independent coking plants rebounded significantly by 58.66 thousand tons to 999.07 thousand tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 5.73 thousand tons to 796.07 thousand tons, indicating that the pre - holiday restocking demand of downstream enterprises was fulfilled [5]. - **Outlook**: The upward driving force of coking coal futures is limited. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, market wait - and - see sentiment is increasing, and the main contract is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Supply**: As of the week of September 26, the combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 112.78 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 thousand tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with losses expanding by 17 yuan/ton, which suppressed the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises to some extent [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.36 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 thousand tons [6]. - **Inventory**: This week, the coke inventory was transferred downstream. The inventories of upstream independent coking plants and intermediate ports both decreased week - on - week. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased significantly by 16.64 thousand tons to 661.31 thousand tons, and the total industrial chain coke inventory increased by 5.23 thousand tons to 920.41 thousand tons week - on - week [6]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental driving force of coke is limited. At the same time, the policy uncertainty has decreased, and the pre - holiday market wait - and - see sentiment has increased. Coke futures are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [6].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 29 日） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着国庆假期的逐渐临近，市场情绪明显转弱，豆类期价波幅明显收窄。目前，国内市场供应 压力仍未化解，下游节前备货基本结束，油厂豆粕库存压力仍在，豆粕负基差仍未修复。节前市场波动或 逐渐下降，短期走势震荡偏弱。 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：棕榈油(P) 策略参考 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view is that both沪胶 (RU) and合成胶 (BR) are expected to run weakly. With the digestion of previous macro - positive expectations and the approaching of the National Day holiday, the domestic tire industry's operating rate has weakened, leading to a decline in rubber demand. Meanwhile, the supply - side pressure remains high, resulting in a weakening trend for both rubber types [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 沪胶 (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "running weakly" [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - positive expectations are gradually digested and the National Day holiday approaches, the domestic tire industry's operating rate weakens, reducing the rubber demand driving force. With continuous supply - side pressure, the 2601 contract of domestic沪胶 futures showed an oscillating and weakly trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.23% to 15,235 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly trend on Monday [5]. 合成胶 (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "running weakly" [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - positive expectations are gradually digested and the National Day holiday approaches, the domestic tire industry's operating rate weakens, reducing the rubber demand driving force. With continuous supply - side pressure, the 2511 contract of domestic合成胶 futures maintained an oscillating and weakly trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.28% to 11,215 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly trend on Monday [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being respectively: short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak. The overall view is that it will operate weakly due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rose 0.51% to 2364 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday, but the continued rebound was blocked by the upper 20 - day moving average [5]. Market Driving Logic - Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure has led to a downward shift in the price center. After the previous continuous decline in methanol futures prices, the bearish sentiment has been released. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. Definition of Market Trends - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it's the previous trading day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price on the current day to calculate the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Oscillatory strength/weakness only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Report Author: Tu Weihua 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price weakened and declined, with a daily decline of 1.58%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Although the supply - demand pattern of rebar improved before the holiday, downstream performance remained sluggish, demand concerns persisted, the fundamental improvement was questionable, and the upward driving force was weak. With the fermentation of concerns about production cut negative feedback, steel prices were under pressure again and were seeking a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in position on the futures market [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.22%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. In the current supply - demand weakness situation, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils were weak, the high - supply pressure remained, and prices were under pressure. With the fermentation of concerns about production cut negative feedback, it was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly before the holiday. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fell from a high level, with a daily decline of 1.74%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore was okay, supporting the ore price, but supply was rising, demand benefits were weakening, the supply - demand pattern was weakening, and the over - valued ore price was under pressure again. Coupled with concerns about production cut negative feedback, the ore price was expected to be under pressure again and fall from a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Trump announced that the US will impose a new round of high - tariffs on multiple imported products from October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [6]. - More than twenty regions have issued concentrated local subsidies for automobiles. Since entering the "Golden September", relevant local policies on a new round of automobile subsidies have been intensively issued, and the subsidy policies have significantly stimulated the automobile market. As of September 10, the number of applications for automobile trade - ins this year has reached 8.3 million [7]. - 208 steel enterprises have completed the public announcement of ultra - low emission transformation. On September 25, Xining Special Steel Co., Ltd. announced its progress in ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring, and so far, 208 steel enterprises have made announcements on the CISA website [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Product | Location | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) | Shanghai | 3,230 | - 30 | | | Tianjin | 3,220 | - 10 | | | National Average | 3,292 | - 14 | | Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) | Shanghai | 3,390 | - 10 | | | Tianjin | 3,300 | - 30 | | | National Average | 3,427 | - 12 | | Tangshan billet (Q235) | - | 3,030 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) | - | 2,160 | 0 | | 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) | - | 783 | - 13 | | Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) | - | 802 | 4 | | Ocean freight (Australia) | - | 10.90 | 0.08 | | Ocean freight (Brazil) | - | 25.83 | 0.62 | | SGX swap (current month) | - | 105.60 | - 0.10 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | 106.10 | - 0.40 | | Coil - rebar price difference | - | 160 | 2 | | Rebar - scrap price difference | - | 1,070 | - 30 | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Product | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,114 | - 1.58 | 3,171 | 3,113 | 1,388,756 | 505,741 | 1,976,545 | 106,096 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,313 | - 1.22 | 3,359 | 3,312 | 612,844 | 275,416 | 1,391,208 | 21,492 | | Iron ore | - | 790.0 | - 1.74 | 806.0 | 788.0 | 326,907 | 135,724 | 508,929 | - 20,811 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [15][17]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [20][24][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts of 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, 247 steel mills' profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit - loss situation [29][31][33]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern continued to improve marginally. Rebar production increased slightly week - on - week, but due to poor profitability, the short - term production increase momentum was weak, and supply was stable at a low level. However, there was a pressure of inventory increase during the holiday, and the positive effect was limited. Demand continued to improve, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 10.41 tons week - on - week, but high - frequency trading was weak, and both supply and demand were at low levels in recent years. The improvement space in the peak season was questionable. Before the holiday, although the supply - demand pattern improved, downstream performance was sluggish, demand concerns remained, the fundamental improvement was questionable, the upward driving force was weak, and steel prices were under pressure again and seeking a bottom weakly [37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continued to be weak, and inventory continued to increase. Hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.30 tons week - on - week, and inventory was high, so the supply pressure was still large. Demand resilience weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 0.14 tons week - on - week, and high - frequency trading declined. Although the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products increased significantly, industrial contradictions persisted, which was likely to drag down hot - rolled coil demand. It was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly before the holiday [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern weakened, and inventory increased significantly. Steel mill production was stable, and ore terminal consumption was high. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills increased week - on - week, and demand was okay, supporting the ore price. However, the restocking was coming to an end, and steel market contradictions were accumulating, so the positive effect was expected to weaken. At the same time, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments were still at a high level, and domestic ore supply recovered. The high - valued ore price was under pressure again and was expected to fall from a high level [38].