投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 产业矛盾累积，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末现货价格持稳为主，成交依然偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需双弱局面未变，建筑钢厂生产趋 弱，螺纹产量环比再 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-13 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250603 | 2025/05 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 48.30 | 50.40 | 51.70 | | 20250605 | 2025/05 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 51.10 | 50.70 | 54.00 | | 20250514 | 2025/ ...

热轧卷板周度数据（20250613） | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | 环比变化 | 上月末值 | 本月变化 | 同期值 | 同期变化 | 本周值 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5.10 | 327.65 | 周度产量 | 324.65 | -4.10 | 319.55 | -3.00 | 供给 | 1.05 | 高炉产能利用率（%） | 90.58 | -0.07 | 90.69 | -0.11 | 89.53 | | 表观需求量 | 319.88 | -1.04 | 326.93 | -7.05 | 328.67 | -8.79 | 需求 | 0.49 | 86.01 | 2.48 | 冷轧卷板周产量 | 88.49 | -0.27 | 88.00 | | 4.77 | 332.81 | 12.60 | 413.83 | 总库存 | 345.41 | -68.42 | 0.18 | 75.02 | 1.51 | 89 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of rebar remain weak, with supply contraction leading to inventory reduction, but demand is also weak, and the fundamentals have not improved. Steel prices continue to face pressure, and it is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate at a low level during the off - season. Pay attention to the production changes of construction steel mills [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar decreased by 108,900 tons compared with the previous week, and the supply continued to contract and reached the lowest level of the year. However, due to the good profit per ton of the variety, the sustainability of production reduction is questionable [1][2] Demand - The weekly apparent demand of rebar decreased by 124,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the high - frequency daily transactions were lower than the normal level. Both were at the lowest level in recent years. The weak demand pattern remained unchanged, which was likely to suppress steel prices [2] Inventory - Supply contraction led to inventory reduction. The total inventory decreased by 124,000 tons compared with the previous week, the in - plant inventory decreased by 19,700 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 104,300 tons. The relatively positive factor was the low inventory level, and the real - end contradiction was not significant [1][2]

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,933.14 106.45 13,866.58 66.56 14,892.62 -959.48 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,798.68 108.50 8,754.33 44.35 9,249.91 -451.23 45港铁矿石到货量 2,609.30 72.80 2,151.30 458.00 2,436.40 172.90 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,510.40 79.40 3,188.70 321.70 3,031.60 478.80 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.61 -0.19 241.91 -0.30 239.31 2.30 45港日均疏港量 301.25 -12.74 326.68 -25.43 309.38 -8.13 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 300.43 -0.05 299.68 0.75 292.91 7.52 主港铁矿成交周均值 86.00 -3.98 96.94 -10.94 113.90 -27.90 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20250613） 库存 供给 需求 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As previous macro favorable factors are gradually digested, weak industrial supply - demand factors start to dominate. Currently, natural rubber production areas at home and abroad are in the full - scale tapping stage, with raw material output growing steadily and new rubber supply gradually rising. On Thursday night, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.54% to 13,695 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: As previous macro favorable factors are gradually digested, weak industrial supply - demand factors start to dominate. Currently, the domestic synthetic rubber supply is expected to increase, while the demand from the downstream tire industry is weak, with the operating rate down significantly week - on - week and year - on - year, highlighting the off - season effect. On Thursday night, the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures fell 1.72% to 10,835 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile and weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The methanol 2509 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The methanol 2509 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The methanol 2509 contract is expected to be volatile and weak [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - As the previous macro - positive factors are gradually digested, the weak industrial supply - demand factors start to dominate the domestic methanol futures market. The domestic methanol supply pressure has rebounded, downstream demand improvement is limited, the futures profit of methanol - to - olefins has declined, which is not conducive to further destocking of port inventories. With the expected increase in external imports, the future social inventory accumulation pressure increases. Under the background that the weak industrial factors outweigh the macro factors, on Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 0.44% to 2284 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday [5].

Reporting Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price weakened again after a brief stabilization in late May. Although safety inspections and environmental protection efforts in coal-producing areas have increased in June, their impact on overall domestic coal production is expected to be controllable during the peak summer demand period. The demand shows that the precipitation in summer this year is predicted to be "more in the north and less in the south", and most areas have high temperatures, but the coal consumption of domestic power plants was still at a low level by the end of May. The inventory shows that as of June 5, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim decreased significantly week-on-week but was still higher year-on-year. Overall, the peak season for thermal coal is about to start, and the high port inventory is gradually being depleted, but the long-term loose supply pattern has not been reversed, and the possibility of a lackluster peak season remains high. The coal price is expected to remain in a low-level oscillatory operation recently [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: In May, safety accidents occurred in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi. In June, safety inspections and environmental protection impacts increased. As of May 31, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 171,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,500 tons, and that in 17 inland provinces was 280,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,700 tons. As of June 5, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.9323 million tons, a week - on - week significant de - stocking of 157,400 tons and 412,600 tons higher year - on - year. The peak season for thermal coal is approaching, but the long - term loose pattern has not changed, and the coal price is expected to oscillate at a low level [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory, and intraday showing a tendency of oscillatory strength [1][5]. - Geopolitical risks are the dominant factor, and crude oil is expected to run with an oscillatory upward trend. Domestic crude oil futures on Friday may maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory and slightly stronger, and the reference view is a strong operation [1][5]. b. Price and Market Conditions - On Thursday night, international crude oil futures stopped falling and stabilized, then strengthened again. The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract slightly rose 0.82% to 490.7 yuan/barrel [5]. c. Core Logic - Geopolitical factors have become an important driver for the rise of domestic and international crude oil futures prices. The escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and concerns about the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and potential war have expanded geopolitical risks and increased the premium space for crude oil [5]. - From April to May, OPEC+ oil - producing countries only had a small increase in production, lower than the target, and negative factors were less than expected, leading to the continued recovery of oil prices [5].

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美国降息预期升温，美元弱势，黄 金强势 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：周三美国 5 月 CPI 低于市场预期，周四美国核心 ...