Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the fundamentals remaining weak, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. However, due to the large discount of the futures price, there is resistance to the downward movement. Under the game of long - and short - term factors, the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable, and the ore price fluctuates at a low level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, with continuous inventory accumulation. During the off - season, steel mill production has weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined from a high level, with the weakening demand trend remaining unchanged. On the contrary, overseas miners are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year, and even though domestic ore production is restricted and its output has decreased, the supply pressure of ore remains. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market has an intraday view of being weakly volatile, a medium - term view of being volatile, and a reference view of being weakly volatile. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report has no highlights, and the market focus shifts to the planting area report at the end of June. The trading logic of the soybean market revolves around weather and trade prospects, and the domestic soybean meal futures price has limited short - term decline space due to the support of raw soybean import costs [5]. - The palm oil market has an intraday view of being weakly volatile, a medium - term view of being volatile, and a reference view of being weakly volatile. The overall oil market is in a volatile state, with funds focusing on the soybean market and the pattern of strong soybeans and weak oils continuing. The palm oil market is a game between production increase and strong demand, and the domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and follows the international oil market [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The U.S. Department of Agriculture report lacks highlights, and the market focuses on the June - end planting area report. The soybean market trading logic is related to weather and trade prospects. The domestic soybean meal futures price is supported by raw soybean import costs, and the short - term decline space is limited. Also, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [5][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [6][7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The overall oil market is volatile, with funds concentrated in the soybean market and the pattern of strong soybeans and weak oils persisting. The palm oil market is a competition between production increase and strong demand. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and follows the international oil market. Other factors are Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [7][8]. Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Factors include U.S. tariff policies, U.S. soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需两端走弱，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 | | 获 取 | 每 日 | 期 货 观 点 | 推 送 | | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that the market will mainly show range - bound fluctuations, with the upper and lower limits of the index being relatively limited. The mid - term view is that the stock index will rise, and the intraday view is that it will be strong with a bias towards range - bound movement [1][4]. - The core logic is that the latest macro - economic indicators are weak, which increases the expectation of policy support. The market has strong bottom - support forces, and the negative impact of the tariff war has a weak marginal effect, resulting in low short - term downward risks. However, due to the market's wait - and - see attitude, the short - term upward momentum of the stock index is also limited [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2506 variety, the short - term view is range - bound, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is strong with a bias towards range - bound movement, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the expectation of policy benefits provides strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is strong with a bias towards range - bound movement, the mid - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the market sentiment has returned to calm after the lack of further substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade measures. The weak macro - economic indicators increase the expectation of policy support, and the market has strong bottom - support forces. The negative impact of the tariff war has a weak marginal effect, and the short - term downward risk is low. The market is waiting for policy guidance, and attention can be paid to the Lujiazui Forum on June 18. Due to the wait - and - see attitude, the short - term upward momentum of the stock index is limited [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The short - term view of coking coal (2509) is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is decline, and the overall view is low - level oscillation due to fundamental concerns [1]. - The short - term view of coke (2509) is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is low - level oscillation because of off - season demand suppression [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Cost**: On the night of June 12, the main coking coal contract was weakly running. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 890.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost was about 860 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Since late May, the output of some mines has declined. In June, due to safety production and environmental protection, domestic coking coal output has increased uncertainty. The output data of 523 coking coal producers by Steel Union has decreased year - on - year for 3 consecutive weeks. Political turmoil in Mongolia has also raised concerns about Mongolian coal [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the futures market sentiment has slightly improved due to supply disturbances and the expectation of Sino - US trade friction easing, the long - and medium - term supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the coking coal futures will maintain low - level oscillation [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Cost**: On the night of June 12, the main coke contract declined slightly, approaching 1300 yuan/ton. The latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.22%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost was about 1401 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand pattern of coke has not changed much since May, remaining in a situation of both supply and demand decline. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 74.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Coking coal cannot provide sufficient cost support, and steel mills still have the intention to lower prices. Although factors such as coking coal supply disturbances and Sino - US relations easing have led to a slight price rebound, the long - short game in the market is intense, and the main coke contract remains at a low level [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The macro - economic indicators are marginally weakening, and the market's expectation of monetary easing in the future is rising, providing strong support at the bottom of Treasury bond futures. Before the policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18, the market sentiment is waiting and watching [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the macro - economic indicators are marginally weakening [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that yesterday, all Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated in a narrow range. The short - term impact of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations not reaching further substantial progress is gradually dissipating. The recently announced macro - economic data has weakened, and the market's expectation of future monetary easing has increased. In the short term, financial policies need to wait for the policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global crude oil futures market has experienced significant fluctuations under the impact of multiple geopolitical crises. The continuous escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and the turmoil in the US-Iran nuclear negotiations have had a profound impact on crude oil supply, demand expectations, financial speculation, and the global energy landscape [4]. - Geopolitical events affect oil prices through three transmission chains: direct supply disruptions, transportation channel blockades, and changes in sanctions policies. The market's reaction to different types of events varies in time lag, with short-term sudden supply shocks causing a jump of over 10% on the day, while long-term sanctions policies lead to a monthly progressive premium of 3 - 5%. The market is gradually becoming desensitized to repeated geopolitical threats [4]. - Geopolitical turmoil has transformed the impact on the crude oil futures market into a complex game involving financialization, politicization, and greening factors. In the short term, the market is still digesting the contradiction between supply disruption risks and weak demand. In the medium to long term, the acceleration of energy transformation and the reconstruction of pricing power will reshape the industry's fundamentals [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Preface: US Evacuation of Personnel from the Middle East Triggers Market Concerns - On June 11, 2025, the US State Department and Department of Defense decided to evacuate non-essential personnel from the Middle East due to the escalating tension in the region. The US-Iran relationship is tense, and the risk of conflict between Israel and Iran is rising, which has increased market concerns [8]. Chapter 1: Geopolitical Crisis Intensifies, Crude Oil Futures Rise Significantly - The intensification of the geopolitical crisis has driven up domestic and international oil prices. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated and the US planned to evacuate personnel from the Middle East, the market worried about the breakdown of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. As a result, on Wednesday night, the US WTI crude oil futures price rose 5.11% to $69.29 per barrel, the Brent crude oil futures price rose 5.85% to $70.83 per barrel, and the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract rose 3.37% to 497.4 yuan per barrel [9]. Chapter 2: Expectations of US-Iran Conflict Heat Up, Evacuation Signs Appear - The US evacuation of non-essential personnel from the Middle East is a preventive measure. The US State Department ordered the evacuation of non-core personnel from the embassy in Baghdad, and authorized the evacuation of non-core personnel and their families in Bahrain and Kuwait. The US Secretary of Defense approved the voluntary evacuation of the families of US troops in the Middle East. The Iranian Defense Minister warned that if the negotiations fail, Iran will attack US military bases in the Middle East. The British Navy also warned that the shipping in the Middle East may be affected. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures have risen significantly, and the market is worried about potential oil supply disruptions [17]. Chapter 3: Long-Standing US-Iran矛盾, Difficult to Resolve Differences - The US-Iran conflict dates back to the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, covering various fields such as ideology, social system, and geopolitics, especially the Iranian nuclear issue. The Iran hostage crisis in 1979 and the Iranian nuclear crisis in 2003 have further intensified the contradiction. Different US administrations have adopted different policies towards Iran, from containment and sanctions to negotiation and then back to sanctions. The current Trump administration's Iran policy is a key part of its Middle East policy [18][20]. Chapter 4: US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations on the Verge of Collapse, Conflict Looms - Since the beginning of 2025, the US and Iran have held multiple rounds of nuclear negotiations. However, there are significant differences between the two sides on key issues such as uranium enrichment and the lifting of sanctions. The future of the negotiations is uncertain, and the breakdown of the negotiations may lead to a larger-scale conflict [23][24]. Chapter 5: Iran's High Geopolitical Influence and Oil Production Status in the Middle East - Iran is a major oil producer in the Middle East. In April 2025, its crude oil production was 3.305 million barrels per day, with a slight monthly decrease of 31,000 barrels per day and a slight annual increase of 82,000 barrels per day. From January to April 2025, its crude oil production was 13.242 million barrels per day, a significant increase of 490,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last year. Iran ranks eighth in global oil production and has the highest production increase among OPEC members. It also has the fourth-largest proven oil reserves and the second-largest natural gas reserves in the world [25]. - Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transportation. Approximately 40% of the world's oil exports pass through this strait, and about 90% of the total oil exports from the Persian Gulf go through it. If the strait is blocked, it will lead to a sharp reduction in oil supply, causing a rapid increase in oil prices and seriously affecting the global economy [26]. Chapter 6: Russia-Ukraine Conflict Escalates, Second Round of Peace Talks Fails - In early June 2025, Ukraine launched a drone attack on Russian strategic bombers, resulting in the destruction of 41 bombers, which may account for 45% of Russia's active - duty strategic bombers. The second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul ended in failure, and Russia launched a large - scale air strike on Ukraine. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has boosted the premium space in the international crude oil futures market [38][40]. Chapter 7: Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increase Week - on - Week - Since June 2025, the international crude oil futures price has shown a stable and fluctuating trend, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. As of June 3, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 167,957 contracts, a slight week - on - week increase of 2,263 contracts, but a significant decrease of 10,254 contracts (a decline of 5.75%) compared to the May average. Meanwhile, the average net long positions in Brent crude oil futures were 155,519 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 7,688 contracts, and a significant increase of 19,984 contracts (an increase of 14.74%) compared to the May average [41]. Chapter 8: Summary - The global crude oil futures market has been highly volatile under the influence of geopolitical crises. Geopolitical events affect oil prices through three transmission chains, and the market's reaction to different events has time - lag differences. The impact of geopolitical turmoil on the crude oil futures market is a complex game involving multiple factors. In the short term, the market is dealing with the contradiction between supply disruption risks and weak demand, while in the medium to long term, energy transformation and pricing power reconstruction will reshape the industry [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand situation of rebar remained weak on both sides. Although supply contraction led to inventory reduction, demand was also weak, and the fundamentals did not improve. With low inventory and few real - world contradictions, it was expected that rebar would continue to oscillate at a low level during the off - season [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated downward, with a daily decline of 0.87%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil remained weak. Supply slightly contracted from a high level but the pressure persisted, and demand was weakly stable. With inventory continuously increasing and the Sino - US trade risk easing, it was expected that the price of hot - rolled coil would continue to oscillate at a low level [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a low level, with a daily decline of 0.21%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Although the repair of pessimistic expectations drove the discounted ore price to oscillate upward, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation led to a weak fundamental performance of iron ore. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected that the ore price would maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London from June 9th to 10th. Both sides reached a principle agreement on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns [6]. - Shanghai Minhang initiated the first project of purchasing existing commercial housing for affordable rental housing. The practice originated from the monetized construction mechanism of affordable housing [7]. - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron in Australia planned to merge into Hancock Iron Ore on July 1st. Roy Hill exported about 64 million tons of iron ore to the Asian market annually, and Atlas Iron mined and exported about 10 million tons annually [8]. Spot Market - For steel products, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,060 yuan, down 20 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; and the national average was 3,234 yuan, down 2 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin it was 3,110 yuan, down 20 yuan; and the national average was 3,244 yuan, down 5 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,920 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan, up 20 yuan. The coil - rebar spread was 140 yuan, up 20 yuan, and the rebar - scrap spread was 960 yuan, down 40 yuan [9]. - For iron ore, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 720 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 722 yuan, down 5 yuan. The freight from Australia was 9.55 yuan, down 0.13 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.33 yuan, down 0.07 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 95.80 yuan, up 0.50 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.75 yuan, up 0.80 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,968 yuan, with a decline of 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,312,653 lots, a decrease of 202,202 lots, and the open interest was 2,220,025 lots, an increase of 55,793 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,080 yuan, with a decline of 0.87%. The trading volume was 490,001 lots, a decrease of 108,817 lots, and the open interest was 1,566,756 lots, an increase of 3,326 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 704.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.21%. The trading volume was 256,930 lots, a decrease of 90,128 lots, and the open interest was 716,699 lots, a decrease of 12,525 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report presented charts on steel and iron ore inventories (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at ports and in mines), as well as charts on steel mill production (such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) [15][29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, supply and demand continued to decline. Weekly production decreased by 108,900 tons, and inventory decreased. However, due to good profit per ton, the sustainability of production reduction was uncertain. Demand continued to weaken seasonally, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 124,000 tons. It was expected to continue oscillating at a low level during the off - season [38]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Although production decreased by 41,000 tons week - on - week, it was still at a high level. Demand was weakly stable, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons. With the Sino - US trade negotiation making progress, it was expected to continue oscillating at a low level [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern was weakly stable. Terminal consumption was weakly stable, but demand was expected to weaken during the off - season. Domestic port arrivals continued to rise, and overseas shipments were at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and was expected to oscillate at a low level [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coke**: On June 12, the main coke contract closed at 1,328.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.77%. The spot price at Rizhao Port dropped 5.22% week-on-week. The weak coking coal market fails to support coke costs, and steel mills still want to lower prices. Since May, coke supply and demand have both decreased, and the off - season suppresses the industry. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, and the average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.11 tons week - on - week. Despite short - term price rebounds due to coking coal supply disruptions and Sino - US relations improvement, the market is still bearish, and the main coke contract remains at a low level [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On June 12, the main coking coal contract closed at 766.5 points, down 2.79% intraday. The spot price at Ganqimaodu Port fell 1.1% week - on - week. Since late May, some coal mines have reduced production, and in June, safety and environmental inspections increase production uncertainty. The coking coal output of 523 steel - related enterprises has declined for three consecutive weeks, and political unrest in Mongolia has raised concerns. Although market sentiment has slightly improved, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the coking coal futures maintain low - level fluctuations [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In May 2025, the total new commercial housing transaction area in 10 key cities was 6.4404 million square meters, a 7.6% month - on - month increase but a 17.1% year - on - year decrease. The transaction areas in Beijing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased month - on - month, with Shenzhen having the largest decline of 21.8%. The transaction areas in the other 6 cities increased month - on - month, with Foshan having a 32.7% increase [8]. - On June 12, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking coal being 950 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - price warehouse is 1,270 yuan/ton, a 5.22% week - on - week and month - on - month decrease, and a 24.85% decrease from the end of last year and a 36.18% decrease compared to the same period. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse is 1,180 yuan/ton, a 0.84% week - on - week decrease, a 3.28% month - on - month decrease, a 27.16% decrease from the end of last year, and a 38.86% decrease compared to the same period [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 890 yuan/ton, a 1.11% week - on - week decrease, a 3.26% month - on - month decrease, a 24.58% decrease from the end of last year, and a 45.06% decrease compared to the same period. The prices of Australian and Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port also showed varying degrees of decline [10]. Futures Market - **Coke**: The main coke contract closed at 1,328.5 yuan/ton, down 1.77% intraday, with a trading volume of 22,601 lots (a decrease of 2,800 lots) and an open interest of 52,536 lots (a decrease of 255 lots) [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The main coking coal contract closed at 766.5 points, down 2.79% intraday, with a trading volume of 880,359 lots (a decrease of 271,745 lots) and an open interest of 562,882 lots (an increase of 5,853 lots) [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal in different sectors (such as independent coking plants, steel mills, ports), as well as production and operation indicators of related industries (such as blast furnace operating rate, steel mill profitability, washing plant production, and coking plant operation) [14][20][27] Market Outlook - **Coke**: The fundamentals are weak, and the main contract will likely continue to trade at a low level due to weak cost support, continuous supply - demand decline, and intense market competition [32]. - **Coking Coal**: Although short - term sentiment has improved, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the futures will maintain low - level fluctuations [33].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 白糖 | 报告 2025 年 6 月 12 日 白糖 专业研究·创造价值 供需格局转向宽松 进口压力兑现 核心观点 巴西汽油降价压制乙醇价格，通过糖醇比机制增加食糖供应，叠加全球 增产预期及中国进口压力，导致原糖破位下跌，糖价短期维持弱势。印度和 泰国因气候改善和政策支持增产确定性高，推动全球糖市进入过剩周期，国 际糖价承压。 白糖 国内需警惕进口糖到港节奏对基差的冲击；核心矛盾在于供需宽松格 局强化。国内产销区价格分化持续，产区低库存挺价持续，销区加工糖到港 叠加成本偏低倒逼降价。国内糖产量创新高，销售分化受终端消费转型和进 口预期压制。 短期郑糖期价继续承压偏弱运行，需紧盯进口到港节奏及北半球天气 对供需前景的影响。未来关键变量包括巴西天气与压榨进度（降雨持续可能 加速压榨并增加供应）、印度季风雨强度（影响 2025/26 榨季产量预期）、 原油价格走势（影响乙醇需求前景）和中国进口政策。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0411-84807266 邮 ...