投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-09-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期乌克兰不间断袭击俄罗斯境内产油实施，俄罗斯称如有需要延长成品油出口禁令等。 另外美国总统特朗普表示将对俄罗斯进行强有力的关税制裁，显示近期西方国家及乌克兰主要目标 仍是通过各种方式来打击俄罗斯的石油出口。在地缘风险增强的背景下，原油期货价格阶段性走强。 本周三夜盘国内外原油期货价格呈现震荡偏强的走势。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约小幅收涨 1.53% 至 489.7 元/桶，预计本周四国内原油期价或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | 短期 | ...

说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 短期多头了结意愿上升，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：本周沪金增仓上行明显，周内主力期价上涨近 30 元/克，触及 860 元关口，对应纽约金 触及 3800 美元，伦敦金站上 3750 美元。昨日美元指数持续反弹，金价高位小幅回落，短期多头了结 意愿上升。中长线上行趋势未改，短线沪金可关注 5 日均线支撑，纽约金可关注 3800 美元关口压力。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终 ...

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in August 2025 was 50.3%, slightly up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as the 50.3% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, new social financing scale reached 256.68 billion yuan, compared with 113.07 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in August 2025 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively, with M1 showing significant improvement from -3.0% in the same period last year [1] - New RMB loans in August 2025 were 59 billion yuan, compared with -5 billion yuan in the previous month and 90 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in August 2025 decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year but improved from -3.6% in the previous month [1] - Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth in August 2025 was 0.5%, down from 1.6% in the previous month and 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in August 2025 was 4.64%, slightly down from 4.8% in the previous month but up from 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - Export value in August 2025 increased by 4.4% year - on - year, while import value increased by 1.3% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, held a round - table meeting with some Chinese enterprises in the US, aiming to stabilize Sino - US economic and trade cooperation and protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [2] - Huarui Bank will lower RMB deposit interest rates starting from September 26, with the current deposit rate down 2 basis points to 0.1%, and fixed - deposit rates for different terms adjusted down by 5 - 20 basis points [2] - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the price limit and trading margin levels for relevant futures contracts during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays [3] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit for certain futures contracts starting from September 29 [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit for certain futures contracts starting from the close of trading on September 29 [4] - The "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, emphasizing industry management and capacity control [5] 2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally declined, while London base metals rose. Freeport McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary's Grasberg mine suspended production due to a fatal mudslide, with production expected to recover by 2027 and a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026 compared to previous forecasts [6] - Since late August, gold and silver futures prices have been rising due to geopolitical risks and Fed rate - cut expectations, but institutions have warned of holiday - holding risks [6] - On September 23, tin inventory reached a 4 - month high, zinc inventory a 2 - year - 5 - month low, aluminum inventory a 6 - month high, copper inventory a 1 - month low, lead inventory a 6 - month low, and nickel inventory a 4 - year - 2 - month high [7] - As of September 24, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 3.72 tons (0.37%) compared to the previous day [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 0.67% month - on - month but an increase of 4.22% year - on - year; 19.1 million tons of pig iron, an increase of 0.74% month - on - month and 5.41% year - on - year; and 20.61 million tons of steel products, an increase of 5.37% month - on - month and 6.68% year - on - year [8][9] - Global crude steel production in August 2025 was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, and the cumulative production from January to August decreased by 1.7% year - on - year to 1.2306 billion tons [9] - As of mid - September, the price of coke decreased by 4.69% month - on - month, and the price of coking coal decreased by 0.04% month - on - month [9] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices rose due to a surprise decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory and supply concerns after a Russian refinery was attacked [10] - China's largest single - set natural gas purification plant in Sichuan was put into operation, with a daily processing capacity of up to 7.2 million cubic meters and a maximum of 14.4 million cubic meters [10] - The US Energy Secretary said the US is ready to replace Russian energy in Europe [10] - Russia raised its 2025 oil export forecast to 240.1 million tons [11] - Enterprises expect WTI crude oil to reach $63 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas to reach $3.30 per million British thermal units by the end of 2025 [12] 2.5 Agricultural Products - Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU are expected to increase from 3.3 million tons in 2025 to 4 million tons in 2026 [13] - Argentine farmers sold about 1.2 million tons of soybeans on Tuesday [13] - US exporters sold 101,400 tons of soybean cake and meal to Guatemala and 312,956 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [13] - The Philippines will extend the rice import ban [14] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On September 24, the central bank conducted 401.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan on the day [15] - The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on September 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, continuing the incremental renewal for the 7th consecutive month [15] 3.2 Key News - Premier Li Qiang stated that China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, which is a positive move for global trade [17] - Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash deposits, with specific collateral requirements [17] - A new policy - based financial instrument with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan is being established, and many regions are in the project application stage [18] - The "Blue Book of Local Government Bonds in China (2025)" shows that local government bonds in 2025 have three characteristics, and fiscal stimulus is expected to continue [18] - Nine departments issued 13 measures to support service exports [18] - From January to August, Shanghai's general public budget revenue increased by 1.1% year - on - year, while expenditure increased by 11.8% year - on - year [19][20] - An expert suggested issuing an additional 100 billion yuan of local government bonds to replace hidden debts this year [20] - Many real - estate enterprises issued bonds recently to replenish funds, as the third - quarter debt repayment peak approached in 2025 [20] - UK new government bond issuances have been cold recently [21] - There are some major bond - related events and overseas credit rating adjustments [21] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - Due to tight liquidity and a strong stock market, the bond market weakened, with rising yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market and falling bond futures [22] - In the exchange bond market, most bonds of Shenzhen Investment Holdings and Vanke declined, while some bonds rose [22] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.30%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 1.41% [23] - Money market interest rates mostly rose on September 24 [23][24] - Agricultural Development Bank and Ministry of Finance bond auctions had specific winning bid yields and multiples [25] - European and US bond yields showed different trends [26] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on September 24, down 86 basis points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was 7.1077, down 20 basis points [27] - The US dollar index rose by 0.65% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [27] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that Fujian Province has a strong industrial foundation but lags behind some other provinces, and its industrial structure is related to its natural resources and geographical features [29] - CITIC Construction Investment also suggests that local governments and urban investment companies should focus on attracting and serving high - quality enterprises, and urban investment companies should choose development directions based on the city's development stage [29] - CITIC Securities points out that the combined market share of two convertible bond ETFs in the convertible bond market is about 9.08% as of September 19, and investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [29] 4. Stock Market Key News - The A - share market rose, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 reaching new stage highs, and nearly 4,500 stocks rising. Semiconductor, new energy, and other sectors performed well, while AI hardware and banks declined [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.37%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.64%. Tech stocks rose, while pharmaceutical stocks declined [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, spreads, and price ratios. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data from September 18 to September 24, 2025, shows that the basis on September 18 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, gradually increasing to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 24. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy products, basis data from September 18 to September 24, 2025, and price ratio data of crude oil to asphalt are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 24 was 135.72 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: The basis data of chemical products such as rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 24 was - 820 yuan/ton. Also, spread and price ratio data for cross - period and cross - variety are given, like the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 24 was 2232 yuan/ton [9][11] Black Metals - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 60.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Cross - variety**: The cross - variety price ratios and spreads of black metals from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore price ratio on September 24 was 3.93, and the rebar - hot rolled coil spread was - 193.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on September 24 was 126.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on September 24 was 90 yuan/ton [28] - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London price ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals on September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was (31.37) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 24 was 153 yuan/ton [38] - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of agricultural products are shown, such as the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 50 [38] - **Cross - variety**: The cross - variety price ratios and spreads of agricultural products from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal price ratio on September 24 was 2.77 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 24 was 36.07 [49] - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of stock index futures are shown, such as the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 18.4 [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 24, 2025, all stock indices rose, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 leading the gains. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 234.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.13 billion yuan from the previous day. The rebound was accompanied by a contraction in trading volume and a reduction in the positions of stock index futures, indicating that investors still have differences in their views on the future market [3]. - The main trading logic of the stock market currently comes from policy expectations and capital flows. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. As the valuation has significantly increased, especially when the index rebounds to near the previous high, the demand for profit - taking of profitable funds has increased. On the other hand, the expectation of policy benefits and the long - term net inflow trend of funds constitute the medium - and long - term driving force for the upward movement of stock indices. The fermentation of policy benefits is expected to await the convening of the important meeting in October. The fact that the margin trading balance has exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan and the year - on - year significant increase in new non - bank deposits in July and August indicate that the signs of residents' wealth allocation to the equity market have begun to appear [3]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate widely because the index is close to the previous high and the long holiday is approaching. Currently, the implied volatility of options has declined. Considering the medium - and long - term upward trend of the stock index, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 24, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.59% to close at 3.072; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.89% to close at 4.663; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.01% to close at 4.810; CSI 300 Index rose 1.02% to close at 4566.07; CSI 1000 Index rose 1.70% to close at 7534.22; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 2.13% to close at 7.432; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 2.27% to close at 2.972; GEM ETF rose 2.17% to close at 3.160; Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.75% to close at 3.555; SSE 50 Index rose 0.68% to close at 2939.51; Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 3.73% to close at 1.53; E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 3.68% to close at 1.50 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 76.34 (previous day: 83.34), and the position PCR was 78.32 (previous day: 71.27) [6]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in October 2025 was 16.47%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 15.70% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts such as the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [9][11][13][15][17]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts such as the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [20][22][24][26][28][30]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts such as the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [33][35][37][39][41][43]. - **CSI 300 Stock Index Options**: Include charts such as the CSI 300 stock index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [45][47][49][51][53][55]. - **CSI 1000 Stock Index Options**: Include charts such as the CSI 1000 stock index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [58][60][62][64][66][68]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts such as the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [71][73][75][77][79][81]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts such as the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [84][86][88][90][92][94]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include charts such as the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [97][99][101][103][105][106]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts such as the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [110][112][114][116][118][120]. - **SSE 50 Stock Index Options**: Include charts such as the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [123][125][127][129][131][133]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include charts such as the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [136][138][140]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include charts such as the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [143][145][147][149][151][153].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "2025 Year 9 Month 24 Day Non - Ferrous Metals Daily Report" [3] - Report industry: Non - ferrous metals [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices fluctuated around the 80,000 - yuan mark with a narrowing amplitude and little change in open interest. Domestically, the macro - environment is favorable, but copper prices are weak. Downstream pre - holiday restocking provides support. Technically, focus on the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark [5] - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated upwards with a slight decline in open interest. The domestic macro - environment is good, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. As prices fell, downstream restocking increased, and the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, focus on the support of the 60 - day moving average [6] - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel maintained a fluctuating trend with little change in open interest. The domestic macro - environment is favorable, but the industry has an oversupply situation due to rising nickel ore and refined nickel inventories. It is expected to fluctuate. Technically, focus on the support at the 120,000 - yuan mark [7] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The SMM Shanghai copper spot price stabilized at 80,000 yuan/ton. Downstream备货 sentiment was weak, and this year's National Day restocking was weaker than last year. It is expected that tomorrow's spot trading will continue around par [9] - **Nickel**: On September 24, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,100 - 123,800 yuan/ton, with an average of 122,450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10] Group 5: Related Charts Copper - **Copper basis**: Chart shows the relationship between basis and spot price [11] - **Electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory**: Chart includes social inventory and bonded area inventory [13] - **LME copper cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart shows the relationship between LME copper inventory and cancelled warrant ratio [14] - **Overseas copper exchange inventory**: Chart shows the inventory of overseas copper exchanges [19] - **SHFE warrant inventory**: Chart shows the SHFE warrant inventory [20] Aluminum - **Aluminum basis**: Chart shows the relationship between aluminum basis and futures price [23] - **Electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory**: Chart shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [25] - **Alumina inventory**: Chart shows the alumina inventory [27] - **Aluminum monthly spread**: Chart shows the aluminum monthly spread [29] - **Electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory**: Chart shows the overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX) [31] - **Aluminum rod inventory**: Chart shows the aluminum rod inventory [33] Nickel - **Nickel basis**: Chart shows the relationship between nickel basis and spot price [35] - **LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart shows the relationship between LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio [38] - **LME nickel trend**: Chart shows the LME nickel trend [39] - **SHFE inventory**: Chart shows the SHFE nickel inventory [42] - **Nickel ore port inventory**: Chart shows the nickel ore port inventory [44]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 今日国债期货均震荡下跌。由于短期内政策利率下降的可能性不高，降 息预期消退，支撑国债期货向上的动能较为疲弱。不过中长期来看，目前国 内内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，海外美联储启动降息令人民币汇率端压 力大大减小，未来货币政策偏宽松的可能性较高。总的来说，预计短期内国 债期货以低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 国债期货低位震荡 核心观点 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 国债期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising on Wednesday. After the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, the rubber market may be dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and the contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, strengthening in oscillation, and slightly rising on Wednesday. Constrained by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, the contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, rising in oscillation, and slightly increasing on Wednesday. Due to geopolitical risks such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential US tariffs on Russia, the contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation's China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. In the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 30,200 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58% [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 487,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 340,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 94,200 tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 2.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [13]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a 19.13% decrease from the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and an 8.94% increase from the August average [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,650 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | - 950 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,358 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | - 88 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 454.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 484.3 yuan/barrel | +11.2 yuan/barrel | - 29.7 yuan/barrel | - 11.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report mentions a chart of rubber basis, but no specific analysis is provided [16]. - Methanol: The report mentions relevant charts but no specific analysis is provided [28]. - Crude Oil: The report mentions relevant charts but no specific analysis is provided [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, showing reduced volume and stable open interest. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of rebar have temporarily improved, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain, continuing to pressure steel prices. The relatively good news is the rising cost. Before the holiday, steel prices will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to changes in open interest [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.24%, showing reduced volume and stable open interest. Currently, the demand resilience of hot-rolled coils is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The supply-demand pattern has weakened, and inventories have increased again, continuing to pressure coil prices. The relatively good news is the rising cost. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be oscillating and weakening. Pay attention to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a daily increase of 0%, showing reduced volume and open interest. Currently, the demand for iron ore is performing well, providing support for ore prices, but the demand benefits are weakening, and the supply pressure is rising. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward drive for high-valued ore prices is not strong. Before the holiday, the trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Be cautious of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics - The OECD raised the global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2%, up from 2.9% predicted in June, while keeping the 2026 forecast unchanged at 2.9%. Both figures are lower than the 3.3% growth rate in 2024. However, the OECD warned that the economic outlook still faces significant risks due to high policy uncertainty and high tariffs [6]. - From January to August 2025, 2.17 million urban old residential areas were newly renovated across the country, with some regions such as Hebei, Liaoning, and Chongqing having completed all planned projects [7]. - On September 23, 2025, South Korea decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel hot-rolled coils originating from China and Japan. The duty rate for Chinese exporters and producers is 33.10%, and for Japanese producers/exports, it is 31.58 - 33.57%. The measure will be effective for four months until January 22, 2026 [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,250, 3,230, and 3,306 respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,400, 3,320, and 3,438 respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 3,030, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,150. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 150, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,100 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 795, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 798. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil are 10.77 and 24.84 respectively. The SGX swap price is 105.69, and the Platts index is 106.20 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,164, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume is 1,205,152, a decrease of 85,224, and the open interest is 1,882,224, an increase of 812 [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,357, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The trading volume is 467,774, a decrease of 181,592, and the open interest is 1,367,761, an increase of 668 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 803.5, with a daily increase of 0%. The trading volume is 202,421, a decrease of 87,266, and the open interest is 539,059, a decrease of 7,511 [11]. 5. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply-demand pattern has improved. The weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons, and the weekly apparent demand increased by 11.96 tons. However, the current inventory is higher than in previous years, and the improvement in downstream demand is uncertain. Before the holiday, steel prices will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to changes in open interest [37]. - For hot-rolled coils, the supply is increasing, with a weekly output increase of 1.35 tons, while the demand is weakening, with a weekly apparent demand decrease of 4.34 tons. The supply-demand pattern has weakened, and inventories have increased. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be oscillating and weakening. Pay attention to the demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, the demand is currently good, with the daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increasing slightly. However, the demand benefits are weakening, and the supply pressure is rising. Before the holiday, the trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Be cautious of the intensification of industrial contradictions [38].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦窄幅震荡 核心观点 焦炭：9 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1730 元/吨，日内录得 1.14%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.50 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+113 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1440 元/吨，周环比 下跌 4.00%。供需方面，截至 9 月 19 日当周，样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日 均产量合计 113.37 万吨，周 ...