Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias. The main reason is the prominent geopolitical risks [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Outlook - The crude oil 2507 contract has a short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlook of oscillation, with the intraday being oscillation with a slight upward bias and a reference view of running strongly [1] - Although the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract closed 1.09% lower at 463.1 yuan/barrel on Wednesday night, the retracement space is limited, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation with a slight upward bias on Thursday [5] Driving Logic - On the one hand, Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress, and macro - factors have turned optimistic. On the other hand, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production increases, and the demand for crude oil is expected to be weak [5] - The Middle East situation has become chaotic again. Yemen's Houthi rebels have imposed a missile blockade on Israeli ports, and the Chinese embassy has issued an evacuation warning. Israel may face attacks from multiple countries, leading to a resurgence of geopolitical risks and an increase in crude oil premiums [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly. Shanghai rubber 2509 and synthetic rubber 2507 are likely to maintain a slightly stronger and oscillating trend on Thursday, May 22, 2025 [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: running strongly [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macro factors have improved, boosting the confidence of rubber market bulls. However, new rubber supply is gradually increasing as the new rubber tapping season begins in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas. Meanwhile, the procurement demand is expected to increase as the operating rate of the downstream tire industry returns to normal. Against the backdrop of improved supply - demand structure, Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend. On the night of Wednesday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.61% to 14,945 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: running strongly [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production, and the crude oil demand is expected to be weak. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become chaotic again, increasing geopolitical risks. With the recovery of crude oil premium, the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly rose 0.62% to 12,145 yuan/ton on the night of Wednesday. It may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that thermal coal will continue to trade at low levels in the near term due to the high - supply and high - inventory situation, with a subdued atmosphere in the industry chain and strong wait - and - see sentiment [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillating". In the medium - term, it is expected to remain at a low level [4]. - **Core Logic**: This week, the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has changed little, with high production and stable imports. The positive factor is that China and the US reached an important consensus in Switzerland to significantly reduce tariff rates within 90 days, which will ease the drag on coal prices from non - power industries to some extent. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. Domestic coal mines in major production areas have a stable safety supervision environment, and production remains high. May is the off - season for thermal coal, and low residential electricity consumption drags down coal consumption in power plants. As of May 8, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces is at a low level for the year. With strong supply and weak demand, market bearish sentiment spreads, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and thermal coal accumulates at ports [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。目前国债期货的上行和下行动能均较为有限。一方面，国 债到期收益率目前隐含的降息预期接近零，政策利率具有较强的锚定效果，市场利率 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the documents. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, in the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, but in the medium - and short - term, the strong pattern is broken, and the game between bulls and bears intensifies. Investors are advised to be cautious and follow the 60 - day moving average [3]. - For nickel, it is in a neutral position in the short - term and a bearish position in the long - term. Technical support at 123,000 should be noted, but there is a lack of rebound momentum [5]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Time - frame Views**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is to wait and see [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: In the context of the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the futures price breaks below the 20 - day moving average, breaking the strong pattern. However, with frequent global geopolitical events, the futures price still has strong support. After approaching the 60 - day moving average last week, it stabilizes and rebounds [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Time - frame Views**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is to wait and see [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The nickel price oscillated and rebounded last night. Since last week, the center of the nickel price has continued to move down, and the amplitude has narrowed. After the short - term macro - benefits are digested by the market, non - ferrous metals have all declined. On the industrial level, the upstream ore end remains strong, giving support to the futures price; nickel sulfate operates stably; the downstream stainless steel rises and then falls, lacking a continuous upward driving force [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价低位震荡 | （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端平稳运行，周产量环比微增，供应高位平稳运行，而周度表需虽有所回升，但 依旧是近年来同期低位，且后续存季节性走弱，需求表现弱稳，供高需弱局面下螺纹基本面矛盾易 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 12143 亿元，较上日放量 31 亿元，近期 市场情绪较为平稳，股指维持震荡整理走势。目前股市上行动能 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 需求支撑不足，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 终端担忧仍存，焦炭低位震荡 | 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1010.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.5%，折合期 货仓单成本约 983 元/吨。4 月全国原煤产量 3.89 亿吨，同比增 3.8%，增幅收窄，但国内煤炭供应 仍维持较高水平。高频数据方面，最新一期全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量为 81.7 万吨，连续 第八周录得正增长；5 月 5 日~10 日，中蒙甘其毛都口岸通关车数达到 6709 车，为年内最高单周通 车量。可见，焦煤供应维持高 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2509 are expected to be oscillatory, with an intraday bias towards strength. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line, as the current situation is fair and the ore price is relatively strong [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, ore demand is falling from a high level, and steel demand is seasonally weakening. The latest miner shipments have rebounded significantly, and domestic ore production is active, so supply pressure is large. The ore price is under pressure, but due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large. The price operation logic switches between strong reality and weak expectation, and the trend is expected to be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory with a bias towards strength. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the current situation is fair and the ore price is relatively strong [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, ore demand is falling from a high level, and steel demand is seasonally weakening. The latest miner shipments have rebounded significantly to the second - highest weekly level this year, and domestic ore production is active. The ore price is under pressure, but due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large. The price operation logic switches between strong reality and weak expectation, and the trend is expected to be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [3].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国关税政策，美豆油库 存，生柴需求，国内原料供 应节奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 马棕产量和出口，印尼出口， 主产国关税政策，国内到港、 库存，替代需求 策略参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品 ...