作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 | | | 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 231.48 4.95 229.11 2.37 235.74 -4.26 高炉产能利用率（%） 91.32 -0.44 91.60 -0.28 88.54 2.78 表观需求量 247.13 -13.16 259.94 -12.81 278.17 -31.04 钢联建材成交周均值 9.64 -1.36 12.13 -2.49 13.93 -4.29 总库存 604.22 -15.65 702.33 -98.11 784.10 -179.88 厂内库存 187.76 2.77 193.73 -5.97 202.85 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面预期不佳，焦煤偏弱震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本端拖累，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, and terminal ore consumption is continuously declining. Although the current demand is still at a relatively high level this year, the traditional off - season of the steel market is coming, and high - level molten iron production cannot be sustained, so demand will continue to decline. On the supply side, while domestic port arrivals are falling and port inventories are being well reduced, overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly. Domestic mines are also actively producing, so the supply pressure is still large. In general, the iron ore market is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals are weakening. However, due to the high - level demand and the deep discount of futures prices, the downward resistance is large. It is expected that the operation logic of the iron ore market will switch between strong reality and weak expectations, and the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the decline in molten iron production [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,987.83, a week - on - week decrease of 178.26, a decrease of 273.17 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 867.49 compared with the same period [2] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,925.48, a week - on - week decrease of 35.68, a decrease of 147.55 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 413.45 compared with the same period [2] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,271.30, a week - on - week decrease of 83.30, a decrease of 54.00 compared with last month, and a decrease of 575.80 compared with the same period [2] - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,347.80, a week - on - week increase of 318.80, an increase of 422.30 compared with last month, and an increase of 279.10 compared with the same period [2] Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average molten iron production is 243.60, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17, a decrease of 0.75 compared with last month, and an increase of 6.80 compared with the same period [2] - 45 - port daily average port clearance volume is 327.09, a week - on - week increase of 3.20, a decrease of 0.83 compared with last month, and an increase of 28.13 compared with the same period [2] - 247 steel mills' daily imported ore consumption is 301.87, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04, an increase of 0.48 compared with last month, and an increase of 12.42 compared with the same period [2] - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 90.23, a week - on - week decrease of 5.65, a decrease of 15.87 compared with last month, and an increase of 1.79 compared with the same period [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Thursday. With the approaching of June, the rubber - producing areas in Southeast Asia and China are fully opening for tapping. Given the expected increase in supply, the contract is likely to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Thursday. With the expected increase in external imports and the growing pressure of social inventory accumulation in the future, and the weak supply - demand structure, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [4]. - **Crude Oil**: The domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening and falling, and significantly closing lower on Thursday. After digesting the bullish factors, the weak supply - demand structure dominates the market again. With the continuous production expansion of OPEC + oil - producing countries, the expected supply surplus increases, and the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 59.88%, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.08% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.02 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 71.21%, a significant week - on - week increase of 12.81 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 5.29 percentage points [8]. - In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000, showing a year - on - year flat [8]. - In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. For the first time in history, the production and sales of automobiles in China exceeded 10 million in the first four months [9]. - **Methanol** - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants nears completion, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output are rising again. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.46%, a small month - on - month increase of 3.46%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.48%. The average weekly output of methanol in China was 1.9911 million tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 66,700 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 40,500 tons, and a significant increase of 388,700 tons compared with 1.6024 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.02%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.17%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate was 94.67%, a small week - on - week increase of 2.09%. The MTBE operating rate was 41.11%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 5.30%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.64%, a small week - on - week increase of 0.91 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 390,100 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 60,100 tons, and a small year - on - year decrease of 20,900 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 218,000 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 20,600 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 172,100 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 4,400 tons. As of the week of May 22, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 336,100 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 200 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 26,300 tons, and a small year - on - year decrease of 53,300 tons compared with 389,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 473, a small week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 24 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.392 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 5,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 292,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 443.158 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 15.687 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.435 million barrels, a small week - on - week decrease of 457,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 400.493 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 843,000 barrels. The operating rate of US refineries was 90.7%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points, a small month - on - month increase of 2.6 percentage points, and a small year - on - year decrease of 1.00 percentage point [13]. - Since May 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weakly fluctuating trend. As of May 13, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 185,301 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 9,873 contracts and a significant increase of 24,938 contracts or 15.55% compared with the average in April. As of May 13, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 145,373 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 49,217 contracts and a significant decrease of 8,932 contracts or 5.79% compared with the average in April [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | 40 yuan/ton | + 40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,365 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,241 yuan/ton | 124 yuan/ton | + 124 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 453.9 yuan/barrel | 9.2 yuan/barrel | + 9.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][20][25] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, domestic methanol port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][36] - **Crude Oil**: Charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. Currently, the trend of Treasury bond futures is not strong, and the upward and downward momentum is limited. Since April, as the Treasury bond yield to maturity has rebounded, the implied interest rate cut expectation relative to the policy rate is now close to zero. This is mainly because external risk factors have entered a suspension period, reducing the demand for safe - havens, and the effectiveness of internal policies requires more macro - economic indicators for verification. The possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. However, due to the anchoring effect of the policy rate, the upward momentum of market interest rates is also insufficient. In the second quarter, government bond issuance has accelerated to hedge against external disturbances and support economic demand. Especially since May, the supply of 30 - year ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds has significantly increased, which may put some pressure on the price of 30 - year Treasury bond futures in the short term. Overall, in the short term, the upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On May 22, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method. The operating rate was 1.4%, unchanged from before [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 基本面预期不佳，煤焦维持偏弱震荡 核心观点 焦炭：5 月 22 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1406.5 元/吨，日内录得 0.85%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.47 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +1271 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级平仓价最新报价为 1390 元/吨， 周环比下跌 3.47%，折合期货仓单成本约 1530 元/吨。近期，钢厂铁水产 量见顶预期渐浓，下游维持压价采购思路，而焦化厂向上游煤矿传导价格 压力。随着原材料焦煤价格持 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated narrowly below 78,000 today. After the peak season, the short - term social inventory of electrolytic copper started to accumulate, putting pressure on copper prices. It may also be due to the decline in market demand expectations. However, the domestic social inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and with domestic macro - stimulus, the consumption expectation is good. Additionally, the low processing fees of upstream smelters continue, and the supply is expected to decline. Overall, the futures price has strong fundamental support and is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased in volume and maintained a strong upward trend. At the industrial level, recent disturbances in the alumina ore end led to the rise of futures prices, providing some support for aluminum prices. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is normalizing and is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the downstream aluminum rod inventory is also low. The futures price is expected to remain strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded to 124,000 last night and weakened during the day. The nickel price center has been continuously moving down, and the amplitude has narrowed. Currently, the nickel industry is neutral in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the technical support at 123,000 [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics Copper - On May 22, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 143,700 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons compared to May 19 and 8,000 tons compared to May 15 [9]. - The Kakula underground mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo suspended mining operations on May 18 due to multiple mine tremors in the eastern area of the Kakula mine last week [9]. Aluminum - On May 22, the electrolytic aluminum inventory was 557,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to May 19 and 31,000 tons compared to May 15 [10]. - In April 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.033 million tons, compared with 5.901 million tons in the same period last year, and the revised value of the previous month was 6.237 million tons. The primary aluminum production in China in April is estimated to be 3.621 million tons, and the revised value of the previous month was 3.742 million tons [10]. Nickel - On May 22, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel had a mainstream premium of +2,150 yuan/ton at a price of 125,500 yuan/ton; Russian nickel had a mainstream premium of +300 yuan/ton at a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel had a mainstream premium of +2,600 yuan/ton at a price of 125,950 yuan/ton; and nickel beans had a mainstream premium of - 900 yuan/ton at a price of 122,450 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][25][27] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 纯碱 |专题报告 专业研究·创造价值 姓名：闾振兴 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03104274 投资咨询证号：Z0018163 从历史数据来看，供应是纯碱行情的最大驱动，反应到对应指标上体 现为价格结构的转变幅度大，速度快。需求驱动对行情的影响相对缓和， 对价格结构的影响有限。不同背景和行情下，纯碱价格结构对行情均有较 好的指引性和佐证。 在中短周期中，资金对于价格波动而言，几乎是必要条件，但是在长 周期中不必然。在纯碱这个品种上，大多场景中，资金的敏感性非常好， 所以持仓也是一个重要的指标。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授予 的期货从业资格证书，期货投资咨询 资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态 度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报 告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐 意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任 何形式的报酬。 电话：0571-87633890 邮箱：lvzhenxing@bcqhgs.com 报告日期:2025 年 5 月 22 日 纯碱价格、结构与资金的关系研究 核心观点 价格结 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/21 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/20 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/19 | -189.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/16 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/15 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-22 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | ...