1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower on Wednesday. As the previous positive factors were gradually digested, the rubber market entered a weakly divergent stage. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. With the expected increase in external imports and the increasing pressure on social inventory accumulation in the future, and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating and rebounding, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. Due to the information from the US intelligence department indicating that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, under the background of strengthened geopolitical risks, it is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures may maintain a stable fluctuating trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decline of 1.25%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 59.88%, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.08% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.02 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 71.21%, a significant week - on - week increase of 12.81 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 5.29 percentage points [8]. - In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and an increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level as the same period of the previous year [8]. - In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8%. Notably, for the first time in history, the production and sales of automobiles in China both exceeded 10 million in the first four months [9]. Methanol - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants came to an end, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.46%, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.46%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.48%. The average weekly output of methanol in China reached 1.9911 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 66,700 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 40,500 tons, and a significant increase of 388,700 tons compared with 1.6024 million tons in the same period of the previous year [10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.02%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.03%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 9.17%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.52%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 94.67%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.09%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 41.11%, a week - on - week significant decline of 5.30%. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.64%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.91 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decline of 0.7% [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 390,100 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 25,000 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 60,100 tons, and a slight decrease of 20,900 tons compared with the same period of the previous year. The methanol inventory in East China ports reached 218,000 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 20,600 tons, and the methanol inventory in South China ports reached 172,100 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,400 tons. As of the week of May 15, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 335,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 32,000 tons, an increase of 10.53%, a month - on - month slight increase of 23,500 tons, and a slight decrease of 44,100 tons compared with 380,000 tons in the same period of the previous year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 474, a week - on - week slight decrease of 5 and a decrease of 22 compared with the same period of the previous year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.387 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 20,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 287,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.454 million barrels and a significant decrease of 15.189 million barrels compared with the same period of the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma reached 23.892 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 1.069 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 399.65 million barrels, a month - on - month significant increase of 2.641 million barrels. The operating rate of US refineries was maintained at 90.2%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.2 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.9 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.20 percentage points [13]. - Since May 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weakly fluctuating trend, with the long - making forces in the market increasing and decreasing alternately. As of May 13, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were maintained at 185,301 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 9,873 contracts, and a significant increase of 24,938 contracts compared with the April average of 160,363 contracts, an increase of 15.55%. At the same time, as of May 13, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 145,373 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 49,217 contracts, and a significant decrease of 8,932 contracts compared with the April average of 154,305 contracts, a decrease of 5.79%. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also increased significantly week - on - week [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 14,820 yuan/ton | - 120 yuan/ton | + 120 yuan/ton | + 80 yuan | | Methanol | 2,362 yuan/ton | - 13 yuan/ton | 2,270 yuan/ton | + 14 yuan/ton | - 14 yuan/ton | + 92 yuan | | Crude Oil | 455.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 470.1 yuan/barrel | + 4.7 yuan/barrel | - 4.7 yuan/barrel | - 14.5 yuan | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol inventory in domestic ports, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [42][44][46]

作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 基本面支撑不足，煤焦偏弱震荡 核心观点 焦炭：5 月 21 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1417.5 元/吨，日内录得 0.14%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.34 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1902 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级平仓价最新报价为 1390 元/吨， 周环比下跌 3.47%，折合期货仓单成本约 1530 元/吨。近期，钢厂铁水产 量见顶预期渐浓，下游维持压价采购思路，而焦化厂向上游煤矿传导价格 压力。随着原材料焦煤价格持续下 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price oscillated strongly above 78,000 yuan today, with a slight increase in open interest. The sharp rebound of precious metals may boost copper prices. Recently, the copper price has been oscillating around 78,000 yuan, and the monthly spread has continued to decline. After the peak season, the short - term social inventory of electrolytic copper has started to accumulate, pressuring the copper price. However, the domestic inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the consumption expectation is good under domestic macro - stimulus. It is expected that the copper price will oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price oscillated narrowly below 20,200 yuan today. At the industrial level, recent disturbances in the alumina ore end have led to an upward movement of the futures price, providing some support for the aluminum price. The destocking of aluminum ingot social inventory is normal and at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a strong operation, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom last night, and the main futures price oscillated around 123,000 yuan today. Since last week, the center of the nickel price has continued to move down, and the amplitude has narrowed. Currently, the nickel industry is neutral in the short term and bearish in the long term. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating operation. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at 123,000 yuan, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Ivanhoe Mines, the underground mining operation of the Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was suspended on May 18, 2025, due to multiple mine tremors in the eastern area of the Kakula mine last week [9]. - **Aluminum**: Data from the International Aluminium Institute shows that the global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons, compared with 5.901 million tons in the same period last year and a revised value of 6.237 million tons in the previous month. The estimated primary aluminum production in China in April was 3.621 million tons, with a revised value of 3.742 million tons in the previous month [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 21, for the refined nickel in the Shanghai market, the mainstream reference contract was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,570 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 350 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,770 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,020 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,520 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts of aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the document. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Power Coal - **Base Difference**: From May 14 to May 20, 2025, the base difference of power coal was -184.4, -187.4, -187.4, -189.4, -190.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend [2]. 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are presented, such as the base difference of INE crude oil being -9.79 on May 20 [9]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of crude oil to asphalt on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, is given, with the price ratio on May 20 being 0.1373 [9]. (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of natural rubber on May 20 was -40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of different chemical products in different periods (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are presented, like the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber being 120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of different chemical products on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are given, such as the LLDPE - PVC spread on May 20 being 2289 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Black Metals - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of black metals such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of rebar on May 20 was 122.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of black metals in different periods are presented, like the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar being 12.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of black metals on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are given, such as the rebar/iron ore ratio on May 20 being 4.22 [15]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Difference**: The domestic base difference data of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of copper on May 20 was 910 yuan/ton [23]. - **LME Data**: The LME data of non - ferrous metals on May 20, 2025, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss, are presented, such as the LME premium of copper being 3.16 [30]. (2) London Market - **LME Base Difference, Shanghai - London Ratio, Import Profit and Loss**: Relevant data and trends are presented through charts [32][33][34]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of soybean No.1 on May 20 was -191 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of agricultural products in different periods are presented, like the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 being -8 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of agricultural products on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are given, such as the soybean No.1/corn ratio on May 20 being 1.81 [38]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of CSI 300 on May 20 was 32.77 [48]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of stock index futures in different periods are presented, like the next - month/current - month spread of CSI 300 being -39.6 [48].

Report Summary of Crude Oil 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Wednesday, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of upward movement [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information - **Price and Movement** - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract slightly rose 0.69% to 467.8 yuan/barrel [5]. - News that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities caused international oil prices to jump 3% on Wednesday morning [5]. - **Driving Factors** - Positive factors: The "gray rhino" effect of the approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the expected demand for crude oil is weak. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased again due to the decreasing expectation of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and the news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [5]. - Negative factors: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and the macro - factors have turned optimistic [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-05-21 品种晨会纪要 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观利多因素逐渐消化，驱动甲醇期价继续上行缺乏基本面支撑。目前国内煤制甲 醇多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回升并刷新周度产量历史新高。下游需求改善有限，甲醇制烯 烃期货盘面利润出现回落，不利于港 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday, and the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract is also expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Slightly stronger oscillating; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][5] - Core logic: Macro factors have improved, boosting the confidence to buy in the rubber market. However, the new rubber supply is gradually increasing as the rubber - tapping season arrives. The downstream tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase. Despite a 0.74% decline in the 2509 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Rising; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][7] - Core logic: Although macro factors are turning optimistic, the US debt crisis in June may cause a negative impact. OPEC+ is increasing production, and oil demand is expected to be weak. But the news of Israel's possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has driven up oil prices. Despite a 0.86% decline in the 2507 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [7]

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year-on-year, the same as the previous quarter and higher than the same period last year [1] - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month and 50.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in April 2025 was 50.4%, down from 50.8% in the previous month and 51.2% in the same period last year [1] - Other economic indicators such as CPI, PPI, and social financing scale also showed corresponding changes [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support key areas of the real economy [2] - China's latest LPR has been lowered, and major banks have cut deposit and mortgage rates [2] - China's gold and platinum imports reached new highs in April [2] - The EU is considering zero quotas on Russian natural gas imports [2] Metals - The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF increased by 0.57 tons [3] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Two coke ovens of Tangshan Guoyi Special Steel Co., Ltd. were shut down [4] Energy and Chemicals - The EU may propose to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil [5] - Macquarie Group expects OPEC+ to increase production in July [6] - Turkey discovered a new natural gas field [6] - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reached agreements with US energy companies [6] - Kazakhstan's oil production increased in May [7] Agricultural Products - China's expected summer grain purchase volume in 2025 is about 200 billion jin [8] - Henan Province will implement policies to support grain production [8] - Gansu Province launched a drought emergency response [9] - South Korean flour mills bought US wheat [10] - Japan will not sacrifice its agriculture in trade agreements [10] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - The central bank conducted 357 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 177 billion yuan [11] - The Ministry of Finance issued treasury cash deposits with lower interest rates [11] Key News - China's LPR and bank deposit rates were lowered [12] - The central bank will support the real economy with a moderately loose monetary policy [12] - Fiscal revenue showed positive growth in April, and expenditure progress was fast [13] - Unemployment rates for different age groups were released [13] - A press conference on science and technology finance policies will be held [13] - The government will continue to support infrastructure and urban renewal projects [14][15] - The financial regulator will study a loan management method for urban renewal projects [14] - The scale of wealth management products exceeded 31 trillion yuan in May [16] - Views on the impact of interest rate cuts on bank net interest margins are divided [17] - Large - denomination certificates of deposit are losing popularity [17] - Insurance companies have raised over 74 billion yuan this year [17] - Japan's central bank's reduction in bond purchases affected the bond market [18] - There were various bond - related events and credit rating adjustments [18][19] Bond Market Summary - Treasury futures mostly declined slightly, and bond yields generally rose [20] - Exchange - traded bonds showed mixed performance [20] - Convertible bond indexes rose, and money market rates mostly declined [21] - Domestic and foreign bond yields showed different trends [23] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index declined [24] Research Report Highlights - CICC believes short - end yields may be range - bound, while medium - and long - end yields may decline [25] - Guosheng believes the 4 - month economic data is strong, and mid - term bond rates have room to fall [25] Today's Reminders - Many bonds will be listed, issued, have payments, and pay principal and interest on May 21 [27] 4. Stock Market News - A - shares rose on Tuesday, with small - cap stocks active and the North Exchange 50 and micro - cap indexes hitting new highs [28] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related indexes rose, with biotech stocks performing strongly [29] - Shengsheng Guojian and Shengsheng Pharmaceutical signed a large - scale cooperation agreement with Pfizer [29][30] - Huaxi Bio responded to the "naming brokerage" incident [30] - Xinhua Insurance will participate in the establishment of Honghu Fund Phase III [30] - Bilibili's Q1 revenue increased, and it achieved profitability [30] - CATL's H - share issuance increased after the over - allotment option was exercised [31]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均高开低走，全天震荡整理。消息面，LPR 报价调降 10BP，符合市场预期， 因为 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅上涨。股市全市场成交额 12112 亿元，较上日放量 923 亿元。二 季度政策面托底经济需求，且稳定股市预期，尤其是强调了加强汇金 ...