本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 15,300.81 90.69 15,210.12 90.69 15,280.51 20.30 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,984.73 42.25 8,942.48 42.25 9,053.73 -69.00 国内45港铁矿石到货量 2,699.30 -117.80 2,817.10 -117.80 2,327.00 372.30 全球铁矿石发运量 3,323.20 44.78 3,278.42 44.78 3,020.70 302.50 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 232.30 -2.38 234.68 -2.38 235.94 -3.64 45港日均疏港量 318.45 -13.13 331.58 -13.13 325.66 -7.21 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 285.07 -4.36 289.43 -4.36 292.89 -7.82 主港铁矿成交周均值 116.58 12.86 103.72 12.86 109.74 6.84 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20251205） 库存 供给 需求 ...

螺纹钢周度数据（20251205） 期货研究报告 螺纹钢供需两端持续走弱，建筑钢厂生产偏弱，螺纹钢周产量环 比降16.77万吨，降幅超远期，供应降至低位，但钢厂盈利状况在 好转，减产持续性存疑，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求同 样走弱，周度表需环比降10.96万吨，高频每日成交表现弱稳，两 者均位于近年来同期低位，且下游行业未见改善，淡季螺纹需求将 持续走弱。目前来看，螺纹钢供应降至低位，给与价格支撑，但需 求同样在走弱，供需双弱局面螺纹基本面并无实质性改善，上行驱 动存疑，相对利好则是估值偏低，预计走势延续震荡运行态势，关 注钢厂生产情况。 春 节 春 节 当 春 节 春 节 春 节 春 节 春 节 钢联建材成交周度均值（农历） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 189.31 -16.77 206.08 -16.77 233.94 -44.63 高炉产能利用率（%） 87.08 -0.90 87.98 -0.90 88.58 -1.50 表观需求量 216.98 -10.96 227.94 -10.96 230.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures (LC2605.GFE) closed at 92,160 yuan/ton, down 1,540 yuan/ton (-1.64%) from the previous day, showing a downward trend in the past 10 trading days. The spot price of lithium carbonate was 93,190 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis was -10 points, a negative basis (spot discount), 650 points weaker than the previous day, and the basis has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 10,922 lots, an increase of 500 lots (+4.80%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have decreased overall in the past 10 trading days. The supply-demand relationship continued the de-stocking trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 92,160 yuan/ton, down 1,540 yuan/ton from the previous day and 4,260 yuan/ton from the previous week; the settlement price was 93,200 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day and 3,200 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Spodumene**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrates all decreased by 10 - 10 dollars/ton compared to the previous day and 40 - 40 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The price of South African CIF China lithium spodumene ore remained unchanged [6]. - **Lithium Mica**: The prices of different grades of lithium mica in the Chinese market either remained unchanged or increased slightly compared to the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 93,190 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan/ton from the previous day and 590 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 82,110 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day and 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price difference between lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic) and lithium carbonate (99.5% electric, domestic) was -11,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan/ton from the previous day and 560 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Ternary Materials and Related Products**: The prices of ternary precursors and ternary materials remained unchanged compared to the previous day and week, and the price of electrolyte (lithium manganate) also remained unchanged [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of domestic lithium iron phosphate was 39,100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The average price of domestic cobalt acid lithium (≥60%) was 344,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 180,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [6]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts showed the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts presented the price changes of lithium manganate, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][15]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts displayed the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of the main lithium carbonate contract [17][18].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实压力未解，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.13%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 重大会议临近，市场情绪偏暖，钢价震荡企稳，但供需双弱局面下螺纹 钢基本面并无实质性改善，上行驱动存疑，后续走势将延续震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来看， 热卷供应压力缓解有限，而需求持续走弱，基本面表现偏弱，卷价继续 承压，相对利好则是重大会议临近带来乐观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Rubber: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, and stabilizing in a volatile manner. The price center of the contract slightly moved up to around 15,100 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and rubber prices are oscillating within a range [6]. - Methanol: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and closing slightly lower. As the previous bullish factors are gradually digested, methanol futures prices have started to correct and consolidate [7]. - Crude Oil: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, strengthening in a volatile manner, and closing slightly higher. The supply surplus is competing with the seasonal demand recovery, and the weakening macro - sentiment, along with the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, is weakening the geopolitical premium of crude oil [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons or 2.71%. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons, with a growth rate of 0.69%, and the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons, with a growth rate of 3.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. Although there is an expectation of an increase in capacity utilization rate, the overall sales pressure remains, and the increase range is limited [10]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index is above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.53%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 178,400 tons [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the operating rate of domestic formaldehyde was maintained at 31.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 5.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 72.95%, a week - on - week increase of 6.42%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants was 82.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points. As of December 5, 2025, the futures trading profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 115,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 165,700 tons. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 361,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 13,900 tons [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 407, a week - on - week decrease of 12 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.815 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 3.02 million barrels per day, reaching a historical high [13]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 574,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 4.128 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 21.296 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 457,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 411.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 250,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 8.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points [14]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 60,991 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 13,318 contracts and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the September average of 97,848 contracts. As of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 125,587 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 52,240 contracts and an increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the October average of 119,411 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai Rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 15,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis was - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 2,082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - The spot price of crude oil was 416.0 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 453.7 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.1 yuan/barrel from the previous day, and the basis was - 40.5 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1 yuan/barrel [15]. 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Related charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: Related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [33][35][38] - Crude Oil: Related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [49][51][53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper continued to rise with increasing positions, approaching the 93,000 mark at the end of the session, with an increase of about 30,000 contracts during the session. The weakening US dollar index led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The premiums of LME copper and Shanghai copper continued to strengthen, increasing the short - term expectation of spot shortages in non - US regions. Technically, copper prices broke through the 90,000 mark with increasing positions, showing strong short - term upward momentum [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices maintained the strong pattern from last night, with the open interest continuing to rise. Due to the weak US dollar, non - ferrous metals generally rose. Both domestic and international electrolytic aluminum inventories remained stable at low levels. As aluminum prices rose, downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices and purchased on an as - needed basis, causing the spot discount to continue to weaken. Technically, in the short term, aluminum prices rose with increasing positions, breaking through the 22,000 mark and the previous high in 2024, indicating strong short - term upward momentum [7]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly below 118,000. The weak US dollar led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The spot premium continued to strengthen, supporting the futures price. In the short term, nickel prices remained volatile, with little change in open interest and low capital attention [8]. 3. Summary of Each Section Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Goldman Sachs believes that although copper prices recently broke through $11,000/ton, triggering market optimism, this round of price increase may not be sustainable. Unless inventories significantly decrease and demand substantially recovers, copper prices may decline. Goldman Sachs maintains the 2026/2027 price range at approximately $10,000 - 11,000/ton. On December 4, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 164,500 tons, a cumulative increase of 6,000 tons from the 1st [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM statistics on December 5, the total inventory of bauxite at 9 domestic ports was 22.72 million tons, an increase of 420,000 tons from the previous week. On December 4, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 593,000 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,000 tons from the 1st [12][13]. - **Nickel**: On December 5, the price range of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 117,400 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,800 - 5,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 400 yuan/ton [14]. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [15][16][17]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [29][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [41][43][45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending December 5, the total daily coke output of all independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.323 million tons, a weekly decrease of 23,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3,100 tons. Recently, upstream coal mines have given profits to coking and steel enterprises. Some coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, while most steel mills are still in the red, resulting in a phased pattern of increased supply and decreased demand for coke. Considering the possible macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the cost - side pressure on coke is expected to have limited room for further increase, and the main contract may gradually stabilize. The downside risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6][39]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending December 5, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 754,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57,000 tons. In November, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 29,240 vehicles, a 38.5% increase from October, and the Mongolian coal import volume in November is expected to reach a new high for the year. The total daily coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The negative factors in November have been released, and with the expected macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the downside space for coking - coal futures is expected to be limited, and it may stabilize and fluctuate in the near future. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [7][40]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Shanxi aims to deepen the energy revolution, promote the construction of "Five Major Bases", ensure national energy security, and promote the high - end development of the coal industry and the transformation of coal products from primary fuels to high - value products. It also focuses on the high - quality development of the energy and raw - material industries and the green - low - carbon transformation [9]. - On December 5, the prices of coking coal in the Xingtai market remained stable, with low - sulfur primary coking coal at 1,470 yuan/ton and 1/3 coking coal at 1,180 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory prices including cash and tax [10]. 2. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 2.99%, an annual decrease of 4.14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.50%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly increase of 0.69%, an annual decrease of 9.88%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [11]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 6.25%, an annual increase of 1.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.77%. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no weekly, monthly, or year - on - year change, but an annual increase of 5.37%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 3.51%, an annual increase of 7.84%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.37% [11]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15%. The highest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,585 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 214,591 lots, an increase of 18,131 lots, and the open interest was 265,380 lots, a decrease of 527 lots [15]. - The closing price of the active coking - coal futures contract was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%. The highest price was 1,193 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,138.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 785,839 lots, an increase of 448,608 lots, and the open interest was 469,486 lots, an increase of 60,508 lots [15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking - coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking - plant coking - coal inventory), domestic steel - mill production (blast - furnace开工率 and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean - coal inventory and开工率), and coking - plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [16][24][31]. 5. Future Outlook - The future outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current supply - demand situation, potential macro - level positive factors, and expected coal - mine production cuts [39][40].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future, with short - term long - short divergence and a multi - factor influence on the market [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. Core Logic - After a previous round of stable rebound, the bullish factors in the methanol futures market have been gradually digested, and the market has entered a stage of long - short divergence [5]. - In the future, more methanol plants in Iran will reduce production due to gas restrictions, leading to a decrease in supply expectations, a reduction in China's import pressure, and a possible de - stocking cycle for port inventories [5]. - However, the current domestic methanol supply pressure still exists, which may weaken the decline in supply [5]. - There is a release of rigid demand during the heating season in northern China, and there are future demand expectations [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 临近年末资金交投热情下降，但 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 政策利好预期逐渐发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅反弹。沪深京三市全天成交额 15617 亿元，较上日缩量 1219 亿元。 目前股指仍然处于震荡整理阶段，市场 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, the Treasury bond futures are mainly in oscillatory consolidation, with low short - term interest rate cut possibility, alleviated market uncertainty risks, insufficient upward momentum, concerns about long - term bond supply in Q1 next year, possible policy of using long - term bonds to replace short - term bonds, and institutional profit - taking needs near the year - end. However, the long - term monetary policy environment is loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: weak; view reference: oscillatory consolidation; core logic: low short - term interest rate cut probability, medium - and long - term easing expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weak; medium - term view: oscillate; reference view: oscillatory consolidation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with a significant decline in 30 - year Treasury bond futures. Short - term weak performance is due to low short - term interest rate cut possibility, alleviated market uncertainty risks, insufficient upward momentum, concerns about long - term bond supply in Q1 next year, possible policy of using long - term bonds to replace short - term bonds, and institutional profit - taking needs near the year - end. Long - term support comes from the loose monetary policy environment [5].