Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore is running steadily at a high level. This week, the average daily hot metal output of sample steel mills increased slightly week - on - week, while the daily consumption of imported ore decreased slightly, but overall it remained at a high level. The demand showed good resilience, but the profits of steel mills are shrinking, and production restrictions are frequent, weakening the positive effects. - The port arrivals of iron ore have rebounded as expected, and the shipments from miners have increased significantly to the highest level this year. Overseas ore supply has rebounded significantly, while domestic ore supply is weakly stable. Overall, the ore supply has rebounded as expected. - In summary, the high - level operation of ore demand provides support for ore prices, but due to the shrinking profits of steel mills and frequent production restrictions, the positive effects are weakening. On the contrary, the supply has returned to a high level, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, and the over - valued ore prices continue to face pressure and fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,845.20, with a week - on - week increase of 25.93, a month - to - date increase of 187.30, and a year - on - year decrease of 1,187.32. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 9,065.47, with a week - on - week decrease of 70.87, a month - to - date increase of 53.38, and a year - on - year increase of 65.41. [1] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals were 2,476.60, with a week - on - week increase of 94.70, a month - to - date increase of 236.10, and a year - on - year increase of 128.80. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments were 3,406.60, with a week - on - week increase of 359.90, a month - to - date increase of 205.70, and a year - on - year increase of 240.50. [1] Demand - 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal output was 240.75, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09, a month - to - date increase of 0.04, and a year - on - year increase of 16.29. - 45 - port average daily ore removal volume was 325.74, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.93, a month - to - date increase of 23.03, and a year - on - year increase of 23.11. - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption was 297.84, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68, a month - to - date decrease of 1.62, and a year - on - year increase of 21.76. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 106.50, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.88, a month - to - date increase of 17.70, and a year - on - year increase of 21.58. [1]

Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar remains weak with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 58,000 tons week - on - week, but the sustainability of production cuts is to be tracked. Demand is at a low level, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 48,600 tons week - on - week, and high - frequency daily transactions remaining sluggish. The steel price is under pressure, but the rising cost may limit the downside space. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 2.1465 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 35,900 tons. The annual - on - annual increase was 540,500 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points, and an annual - on - annual increase of 5.95 percentage points [1] Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 1.948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 86,100 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 45,400 tons. The weekly average of Steel Union building materials transactions was 95,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 26,900 tons [1] Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 6.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 198,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 607,500 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 447,800 tons. The in - plant inventory was 1.7453 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,800 tons, and an annual - on - annual increase of 40,300 tons. The social inventory was 4.3251 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 175,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 483,700 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 488,100 tons [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the price of manganese-silicon will continue its downward trend in a volatile manner, influenced by the cooling of optimistic sentiment in the commodity market and the adjustment of coking coal and coke prices. With the operating logic returning to the industrial side, the supply remains high while the demand has potential concerns, and the cost advantage is weakening. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price Performance - Since mid-August, the futures and spot prices of manganese-silicon have weakened. The main futures price dropped from a high of 6,262 yuan/ton to around 5,800 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of over 7%. The spot price also declined, with the basis strengthening [2]. Factors Affecting Price Decline - Market sentiment has shifted. The "anti-involution" trading logic has cooled down, and the leading varieties in the previous period have adjusted at high levels. The weak real - estate data and slowing infrastructure investment in July's domestic macro - data have exacerbated the shift in market sentiment. Additionally, the cost side has loosened, as the futures price of coke has fallen by over 9.7% since mid - August [3]. Supply Situation - The supply of manganese-silicon has increased significantly. As of the week ending August 15, the operating rate of 187 independent silicon-manganese enterprises was 45.75%, and the daily output was 29,580 tons, reaching a new high this year. The production in main producing areas is active, and the output in Ningxia and Yunnan has also reached new highs. However, producers are in a loss situation, which may limit the increase in future output [4]. Demand Situation - The demand for manganese-silicon is currently acceptable. Steel mills are actively replenishing stocks, and the production of steel mills is stable. As of the week ending August 15, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills were 83.59% and 90.22% respectively, and the weekly demand for manganese-silicon was 125,400 tons, showing a four - week consecutive increase. However, the decline in finished product prices has squeezed the profits of short - process steel mills, which may drag down the demand for manganese-silicon [5].

Group 1: Report Core View - The short - side advantage in the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract has weakened, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [1][4] Group 2: Market Performance Summary - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, and oscillating stronger. The closing price rose slightly by 0.74% to 15,720 yuan/ton, and the position decreased slightly by 3,473 lots to 128,027 lots, a decrease of 2.64% [2] Group 3: Long - Short Position Changes - The long - short positions of the top 20 seats in the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract both decreased. The long positions decreased by 345 lots to 69,518 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,806 lots to 93,901 lots, resulting in a reduction of the net short position to 24,383 lots [2] Group 4: Specific Seat Changes - Among the top 20 long - side seats, 11 reduced long positions. Newhuadu Futures reduced 500 lots. 8 seats including CITIC Futures and Huatai Futures reduced between 100 - 500 lots, and 2 reduced less than 100 lots [3] - Among the top 20 short - side seats, 9 reduced short positions. Guotai Junan Futures, Huatai Futures, and Ruida Futures reduced more than 500 lots. 3 seats including Galaxy Futures reduced between 100 - 500 lots, and 3 reduced less than 100 lots [3] Group 5: Position Reversal Operations - 4 seats carried out long - to - short operations, including CITIC Futures, indicating that they believe the future rebound momentum is insufficient [4] - 4 seats carried out short - to - long operations, including Guotai Junan Futures, indicating that they believe the rubber price will continue to rise [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are mainly oscillatory, with an intraday tendency of being oscillatory and slightly bullish and a medium - term tendency of being oscillatory and slightly bullish [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Jiao Coal 2601: short - term is range - bound and oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory and slightly bullish, intraday is oscillatory and slightly bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillation due to increased wait - and - see sentiment [1] - Coke 2601: short - term is range - bound and oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory and slightly bullish, intraday is oscillatory and slightly bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillation due to production - limit factors [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - On August 21, the main contract of Jiao Coal closed at 1147 points, with an intraday decline of 1.50%. The main contract's open interest was 699,300 lots, an increase of 634 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1190 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [5] - Before the 93 military parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production - limit pressure, causing short - term demand for Jiao Coal to be under pressure and increasing market divergence. However, through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation of Jiao Coal is expected to gradually ease, and the price center still has an upward basis in the medium - to - long term [5] 3.2.2 Coke (J) - The latest quotation of the Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index was 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%; the ex - warehouse price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [6] - Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the supply side of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual supply of domestic coking coal has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. After a phase of adjustment, coke futures prices may still show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格维持强势运行，截至 8 月 14 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比上涨 18 元/吨，接近 700 元关口。本周以来，国内高温天气蔓延，第三产业和 居民用电需求良好，坑口、港口拉运积极性较高，煤价持续走强。供应方面，8 月 15 日统计局公 布 7 月原煤产量为 3.8 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%，日均产量 122 ...

Report Overview - The report is the stock index futures morning report of Baocheng Futures on August 22, 2025, covering the financial futures stock index sector [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term is expected to be volatile and strong, and the medium - term is expected to rise. For example, for IH2509, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is volatile and strong, and the overall view is rising; for IF, IH, IC, IM, the intraday view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For IH2509, the short - term is "volatile", the medium - term is "rising", the intraday is "volatile and strong", and the overall view is "rising". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.4603 trillion yuan, a 11.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous day. The trading volume in the stock market is still over 2 trillion yuan, indicating that investors' sentiment remains positive. However, due to the large gains of some stocks, there is a need for profit - taking of profitable funds and technical consolidation. Currently, positive expectations strongly support the stock index. Anti - involution policies and consumption - promotion policies promote the moderate recovery of the price index from both supply and demand sides and the repair of corporate profits. The capital side is relatively loose, and incremental funds continuously flowing into the stock market drive the repair of the stock index valuation. Overall, it is expected that the stock index will operate in a volatile and strong manner in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the weak oscillatory trend. The industry contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost has increased, limiting the downward space. The performance of demand should be closely monitored [1][2]. 3) Summaries Based on Related Contents Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and intraday trends are weakly oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of industrial contradictions leading to the weak operation of steel prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar remains weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 58,000 tons compared to the previous week, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked due to acceptable profit per ton. - The demand for rebar is at a low level. The weekly apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons compared to the previous week, and the high - frequency daily trading volume remains sluggish. Both are at the low level of the same period, and the off - season characteristics persist, putting pressure on the steel price. - The supply and demand of rebar are operating steadily, but industrial contradictions are accumulating. The steel price is under pressure, and the increase in cost limits the downward space [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a weak - stable supply - demand pattern, and the ore price is in a state of shock adjustment. The short - term and intraday trends of iron ore 2601 are weakly oscillating, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line [1]. - The ore demand remains high with certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the shrinking steel mill profits and continuous production restrictions weaken the positive effects. Meanwhile, the supply has returned to a high level, causing the ore fundamentals to deteriorate and the over - valued ore price to face continuous pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Market Trend Judgment** - The short - term trend of iron ore 2601 is weakly oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic being the weak - stable supply - demand pattern and the shock adjustment of the ore price [1]. - **Market Driving Logic** - Demand side: Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore is running smoothly at a high level, showing good demand resilience. However, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restrictions are constantly disturbing, weakening the positive effects [2]. - Supply side: Port arrivals have rebounded as expected, and miners' shipments have increased significantly to the highest level of the year. Overseas ore supply has increased significantly, while domestic ore supply is running in a weak - stable state. Overall, the ore supply has rebounded as expected [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For gold, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas market risk appetite has declined, recent US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices, but the strengthening US dollar index is negative. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and strengthening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. However, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price moved sideways [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Overseas market risk appetite has declined, US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices. The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, which is negative for gold prices. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index in the short - term [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the gold price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last night, Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Macroscopically, overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. Industrially, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [5]. - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and inventory decreases at a low level, the basis and calendar spread may continue to strengthen. The futures price should pay attention to the pressure at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5].