投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观情绪降温，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：钢联数据显示，8 月 22 日当周，样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合 计 112.18 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.07 万吨；247 家钢厂铁水日均产量合 计 240.75 万吨，周环比微增 0.09 万吨。库存方面，本周钢厂、港口去库 速度放缓，焦化厂库存小幅累积，统计样本内总库存 888.58 万吨，周环 比小幅增加 1.16 万吨，较去年同期库存偏高 84.94 万吨。现阶段，随着 "反内卷"题材逐渐发酵 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, Shanghai copper showed a weak performance, with little change in open interest and a decrease in amplitude. The domestic commodity market cooled, putting pressure on the non - ferrous sector. The speech of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22 at 22:00 Beijing time is crucial. A dovish stance may be positive for copper prices [5]. - Shanghai aluminum reached the bottom and then rebounded this week, with open interest decreasing during price drops and increasing during price rises. The domestic commodity market cooled, but aluminum prices were stronger than the sector. On Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods continued to decline slowly. With a cooling macro - atmosphere and stronger industrial support, the futures price is expected to be strong [6]. - This week, nickel prices showed a trend of increasing open interest and falling prices, with the main futures price breaking below the 120,000 - yuan mark. The domestic commodity market cooled, and nickel prices were significantly weaker than the sector. High inventories of domestic nickel ore and nickel maintained a weak fundamental situation. With strong downward momentum, nickel prices are expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: This week, the supply - demand weakness in Shandong continued, with stable spot premiums and discounts and low market activity. Downstream demand remained in the off - season, and zero - order purchasing willingness was weak. Holders increased sales to Jiangsu. With no inventory pressure, holders had no intention to cut prices significantly, resulting in a stalemate in spot premiums and discounts [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 21, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 101,900 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons from last week [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 22, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel in the Shanghai market was 121,950 - 122,050 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton; the price of Russian nickel was 119,750 - 119,950 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton; the price of nickel beans was 121,850 - 121,950 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][21]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][31][34]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][45].

Group 1: Report's Core View - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated, with slight declines. The 8 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank emphasized implementing a moderately loose monetary policy with a focus on structural easing, reducing the possibility of comprehensive easing. Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising, and the stock market's profit - making effect has attracted funds, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy rates, the room for market rates to rise is limited, meaning treasury bond futures have strong support. In the short term, treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [1] Group 2: Industry News - On August 22, the central bank conducted 361.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with a 7 - day term at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before [3] Group 3: Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the TL2509 trend, T2509 trend, TF2509 trend, TS2509 trend, treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and central bank open - market operations [4][6][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and on the strong side [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.06% to 15765 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian and domestic producing areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, with high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has falling inventory, reduced operating loads, blocked exports, and slowed growth. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut also affects the market [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price slightly up 0.25% to 11820 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has falling inventory, reduced operating loads, blocked exports, and slowed growth. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut impacts the market [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory - bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed slightly up 1.27% to 492.9 yuan/barrel on Thursday night and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Friday [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, even with increased production from OPEC+ countries. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the release of previous bearish sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed an oscillatory - bullish trend on Thursday night [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Methanol 2601 Trends - Short - term: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: Oscillatory [1] - Intraday: Oscillatory - weak [1][5] Price Calculation and Movement Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is oscillatory - weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory - strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Oscillatory - strong/weak only applies to intraday views [3][4]. Price and Market Analysis of Methanol (MA) - Driven by a weak supply - demand structure, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed 0.08% lower at 2417 yuan/ton on Thursday night, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Friday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy shows mixed trends in different indicators, with some experiencing growth and others facing decline. For example, GDP growth slowed slightly in Q2 2025, while export and import values increased year - on - year in July 2025 [1]. - There are significant developments in the commodity market, including new policies for investment tools, trade agreements between the EU and the US, and changes in metal and energy inventories [2]. - The financial market is complex, with the stock - bond seesaw effect emerging, and different sectors of the bond market performing differently. Meanwhile, the RMB exchange rate has certain fluctuations [15][20][25]. - The stock market has a certain upward momentum, mainly driven by retail investors, and there is still potential for growth, especially in small - and medium - cap stocks [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, also lower than the previous value [1]. - Social financing scale increment in July 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 11320 billion yuan and the same period last year at 7707 billion yuan [1]. - M1 and M2 growth rates increased year - on - year in July 2025, while M0 growth decreased slightly [1]. - Financial institution RMB loans had a net decrease of 50 billion yuan in July 2025, compared with an increase of 2240 billion yuan in the previous month and 260 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - CPI was flat year - on - year in July 2025, and PPI remained at - 3.6% year - on - year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative growth rate slowed to 1.6% in July 2025, and the cumulative growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额 decreased to 4.8% [1]. - Export and import values increased year - on - year in July 2025, with export growth at 7.2% and import growth at 4.1% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - A new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be launched, targeting emerging industries and infrastructure [2]. - The EU and the US reached a new trade agreement, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods, and the EU making corresponding concessions and procurement plans [2]. - The Fed is researching new financial technologies, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a high level [2][3]. 3.2.2 Metals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft standard for jewelry and precious metals [4]. - Metal inventories in the London Metal Exchange changed in August 2020, with zinc inventories at a low level [4]. - Goldman Sachs is bullish on copper prices in 2026 - 2027 due to increased defense demand [5]. - Russia's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves slightly increased by August 15, 2025 [5]. - The US maintains tariffs on EU steel and aluminum, and Argentina is expected to supply a large amount of copper in the future [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Chile's state - owned copper company will reduce its copper production target in 2025 due to a mine accident, resulting in an economic loss of 3.4 billion US dollars [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's total electricity consumption in July 2025 reached 1.02 trillion kWh, with a significant increase in new energy generation [8]. - A large - scale shale gas field in China was approved, and the US government has restricted renewable energy projects [8]. - Russia and India plan to jointly develop resources, and the US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to its purchase of Russian oil and gas [8][9]. - US natural gas inventories increased in the week ending August 15, 2025, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - US exporters sold 228,606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in 2025 - 2026 [10]. - China may conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases due to a decline in pig prices [10]. - Pakistan is tendering for 200,000 tons of white sugar, and the international wheat and corn crop forecasts were raised [10]. - India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30, 2025 [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducted 253 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 21, 2025, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan [12]. - The central bank will issue 30 billion yuan of 3 - month and 15 billion yuan of 1 - year RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong on August 25, 2025 [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Ministry of Finance encourages financial institutions to optimize the financing structure of PPP projects [14]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will conduct a green foreign debt pilot in 16 provinces and cities [14]. - New policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan will be invested in emerging industries and infrastructure [14]. - 20 troubled real - estate developers in China have approved debt restructuring plans, with a total debt resolution of over 1.2 trillion yuan [15]. - The stock - bond seesaw effect is emerging, but the bond market is expected to be stable in the long - term [15]. - The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on August 27, 2025 [16]. - Beijing will prepay part of its government bonds, and Henan will promote the disposal of inefficient state - owned assets [16]. - Many bond funds have suffered losses this year, and Japanese long - term bond yields have reached multi - year highs [17]. - The world is entering a "fiscal - dominated" era, and the independence of central banks is being challenged [17]. - The EU - US trade agreement details were announced, and there are major events in the bond market such as bond suspensions and management changes [18]. - Some companies' credit ratings have been adjusted [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - In the inter - bank bond market, most yields of major interest - rate bonds declined, and treasury bond futures mostly rose. Credit bonds showed different performances, and repurchase rates generally fell [20]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, most Vanke bonds fell, and some bonds had significant price changes [20]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.42%, and the money market interest rates mostly declined [20][21]. - The winning bid yields of financial bonds issued by policy - based banks were announced, and international bond yields generally rose [22][23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose by 15 points at the 16:30 close, and the central parity rate was raised by 97 points [25]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.41%, and most non - US currencies fell [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that during stock market rallies, treasury bond yields tend to move with funds, and insurance investment in bonds is expected to increase [26]. - Changjiang Fixed Income points out that the chemical convertible bond market is in a clearing stage, but there is potential for profit repair [26]. - CITIC Securities believes that the Hong Kong dollar may strengthen in the short - term due to increased demand [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On August 22, 2025, 170 bonds will be listed, 123 bonds will be issued, 157 bonds will be paid, and 284 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [28][29]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market fluctuated on Thursday, with small - cap stocks adjusting more. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, and the trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.24%, and there was net inflow of southbound funds [30]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is cautious about extending trading hours [30]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the Chinese stock market, especially small - and medium - cap stocks, has significant upside potential [31]. - As of August 21, 2025, 98 stocks were jointly held by social security funds and public funds for two consecutive quarters, mainly in high - growth sectors [31][32]. - As of August 21, 2025, 171 A - share companies disclosed semi - annual dividend plans, with a total proposed distribution of 124.584 billion yuan [32].

Core View - The report compares the various cuisines around the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange to different trading sessions in the futures market, highlighting the parallels between the unique flavors of each dish and the distinct characteristics of each trading period. It emphasizes the harmonious blend of food and finance, suggesting that just as each dish has its own story, every commodity in the futures market has its unique value and meaning [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalog - **Breakfast (Morning Trading Session)**: The traditional spicy soup at a time - honored shop is like the morning trading session of the futures market, full of energy and promise. The combination of spicy and savory flavors wakes up the taste buds, similar to how the morning session in the futures market starts with vitality and anticipation [2][5] - **Lunch (Afternoon Trading Session)**: The mutton stewed noodles at the "Noodle King" shop are comparable to the afternoon trading session. The well - combined flavors of tender mutton and chewy noodles, along with the addition of scallions, create a stable and satisfying experience, mirroring the steady and reliable nature of the afternoon trading session [2] - **Evening Snacks (Night Trading Session)**: The various snacks such as grilled skewers, fried chicken, and cold noodles in the evening are like the night trading session of the futures market, full of uncertainties and surprises, enticing people with their diverse tastes [2] - **Hidden Gems**: The handmade glutinous rice sweet wine at a dessert shop is a hidden treasure in the futures market, requiring careful discovery to appreciate its charm, much like some undervalued commodities in the market [3] - **Bread (Closing Session)**: The bread from the "Warm Hand - made Bakery" is similar to the closing session of the futures market. Although approaching the end, it still retains its allure and appeal [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties of Baocheng Futures on August 22, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50] Summary by Category Power Coal - The table shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from August 15 to August 21, 2025. The basis on August 21 was - 97.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on the basis of energy commodities (fuel oil, INE crude oil, crude oil/asphalt) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are provided, along with the ratio of crude oil to asphalt and other information [7] Chemical Commodities - The basis data of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on August 21 was - 920 yuan/ton [9] - The table shows the inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, ethylene glycol) and inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 [11] Black Metals - The basis data of black metals (rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are given. For instance, the basis of rebar on August 21 was 199.0 yuan/ton [21] - The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) and inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) of black metals are presented [20] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on August 21 was 220 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on August 21, 2025 are provided, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss [34] Agricultural Products - The basis data of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc.) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are presented [39] - The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc.) are shown [39] - The inter - variety spreads (soybean No.1/corn, soybean No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc.) of agricultural products from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are provided [39] Stock Index Futures - The basis data of stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 21 was 5.87 [51] - The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of stock index futures are presented [53]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both rising. The demand shows good resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not improved under the high supply pattern. The relative positives are cost increase and production restriction disturbances. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coils will continue to fluctuate and rise. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [8] Summary by Directory Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 325.24 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 9.65 tons and a month-on-month increase of 2.45 tons compared with the end of last month. The output has rebounded from a low level to a new high this year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.25%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a month-on-month increase of 0.01% compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 5.95% [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 321.27 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.52 tons and a month-on-month increase of 1.27 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 2.68 tons. The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 86.08 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.11 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 3.31 tons [2] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 361.44 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.97 tons and a month-on-month increase of 13.49 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 80.77 tons. The in-plant inventory is 78.89 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.09 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.41 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.29 tons. The social inventory is 282.55 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 5.06 tons and a month-on-month increase of 13.90 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year decrease of 67.48 tons [2]