| 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M1(货币):同比 | % | 6.20 | 7.20 | -2.30 | | 20251 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 偏空氛围主导，焦煤弱势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空因素交织，焦炭偏弱震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be under pressure and decline in a volatile manner, with a weakening supply - demand pattern and the real - world logic taking the lead. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on iron ore 2605 are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively, with an overall view of "weakly volatile" [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "weakly volatile", with an overall view of "weakly volatile". The core logic is that the real - world pattern is weakening, putting pressure on the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. At the end of the year, steel mills' maintenance increases, terminal ore consumption declines, and steel mills' profitability has not improved, resulting in weak ore demand. Overseas miners' shipments have increased month - on - month, and both shipments and domestic port arrivals are at high levels within the year. Even though domestic ore supply has shrunk, overall iron ore supply remains high. The previous positive factors have pushed the ore price back to a high level, but now the demand is weakening while supply remains high, so the ore price is expected to decline under pressure [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report believes that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price will fluctuate at a low level. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are all expected to be in a state of weak fluctuation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively: short - term is volatile, medium - term is volatile, and intraday is weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, with the core logic being the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the steel price fluctuating at a low level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The weekend spot price of rebar decreased slightly, and the trading volume was weak. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Rebar production has dropped significantly, and the supply has reached a low level, which supports the steel price. However, the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are running weakly at a low level, and downstream industries have not improved. Demand continues to decline seasonally, putting pressure on the steel price. Currently, the supply of rebar is at a low level, providing support for the price, but the demand is also weakening. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view for the financial futures stock index sector is oscillating with a bullish bias in the short - term, as the policy - friendly expectations are continuously fermenting [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is oscillating with a bullish bias due to the continuous fermentation of policy - friendly expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating with a bullish bias. - Last Friday, all stock indices rebounded oscillatingly. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 173.9 billion yuan, an increase of 17.73 billion yuan from the previous day. - With the continuous fermentation of policy - friendly expectations in December, the trading volume of the stock market has increased, the margin trading amount and margin balance have rebounded, and the risk appetite of the stock market has recovered. - The Central Economic Work Conference will provide policy guidance for the macro - economic policies of the Two Sessions next year. The policy - friendly expectations will gradually become the main logic of the market. - However, attention should be paid to the short - term disturbances to the stock index caused by the transmission of the risk appetite of external AI assets and the changes in the trading sentiment of domestic capital. In general, the stock index will be mainly oscillating with a bullish bias in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectation still exists [1][5]. - Currently, treasury bond futures are in an oscillatory consolidation stage, with relatively limited upward and downward momentum. In the short term, due to the low possibility of interest rate cuts, the mitigation of market uncertainty risks, the increasing profit - taking demand of institutions near the year - end, and concerns about the long - term bond supply pressure in the first quarter of next year, treasury bond futures are showing weakness. However, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and in the medium and long term, the monetary policy environment is moderately loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Currently, they are in an oscillatory consolidation stage with limited upward and downward momentum. Short - term factors lead to weak performance, but medium - and long - term factors provide support, so they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Report's Core View**: Methanol futures are expected to run weakly in the short - term and show an oscillating trend in the medium - term, with an overall view of weak operation [1][5] - **Summary by Related Catalog**: - **Time - cycle View**: For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view suggests a weak operation [1] - **Core Logic**: After a previous stabilization and rebound, positive factors in the methanol futures market have been digested, and it has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. In the future, more methanol plants in Iran will reduce production due to gas restrictions, leading to a decline in supply expectations and a reduction in China's import pressure. Port inventories may enter a destocking cycle. However, the current domestic methanol supply pressure still exists, which may offset the decline in supply. There is also an expectation of demand release during the heating season in northern China. Against the backdrop of short - term divergence between bulls and bears, domestic methanol futures closed slightly lower in an oscillating manner on the night of last Friday, and are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend on Monday [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][5][7] 2. Report Core View - The domestic market of soymeal is in a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", with prices oscillating weakly under cost support and inventory pressure. The palm oil market is in a complex game between "weak reality" and "strong expectations", and the futures price may turn to oscillate after a continuous rebound [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is weak. The reference view is also weak [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic market is in a "strong supply and weak demand" situation. Soybean supply is abundant, and port soybean inventory has increased significantly year - on - year. The soymeal market is in a game between high - inventory pressure and cost - support expectations, with short - term prices running weakly [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is oscillating weakly. The reference view is oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectations". Supply - side pressure is significant. Malaysia's inventory is expected to reach a six - and - a - half - year high at the end of November due to high production and slow exports. The futures price is in a game between high - inventory and weak - export pressure and potential policy benefits and seasonal production - reduction expectations, and may turn to oscillate after a continuous rebound [7] Other Information - For varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The intraday closing price is the end price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. Oscillation strength/weakness only applies to intraday views, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [3][4] - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, with the previous day's night - trading closing price as the benchmark [6]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-08 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 合成胶（BR） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term stock index is mainly oscillating strongly. With the continuous fermentation of policy - favorable expectations in December, the trading volume of the stock market has increased, the margin trading volume and margin balance have rebounded, and the risk appetite of the stock market has recovered. The policy - favorable expectations will gradually become the main - line logic of the market, but short - term disturbances to the stock index caused by the transmission of the risk appetite of external AI assets and the changes in the trading sentiment of domestic funds should still be noted [3]. - For options, considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index, a bull spread or ratio spread with a mild bullish view can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On December 5, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.93% to 3.145; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.88% to 4.698; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.87% to 4.844; CSI 300 Index rose 0.84% to 4584.54; CSI 1000 Index rose 1.29% to 7342.49; 500ETF (SSE) rose 1.28% to 7.216; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 1.30% to 2.882; GEM ETF rose 1.25% to 3.089; Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.97% to 3.432; SSE 50 Index rose 0.93% to 3002.01; STAR 50ETF remained unchanged at 1.39; E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.15% to 1.35 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options on December 5, 2025, showed different changes compared with the previous trading day, reflecting the changes in market trading sentiment and position structure [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money options of various options in December 2025 are provided, which can help analyze the volatility expectations and historical volatility levels of the underlying assets [7][8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 50ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [9][10][11]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 300ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [20][21][22]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SZSE 300ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [33][34][35]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of CSI 300 Index, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [37][38][39]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of CSI 1000 Index, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [50][51][52]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 500ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [64][65][66]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SZSE 500ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [77][78][79]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of GEM ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [90][91][92]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of Shenzhen 100ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [103][104][105]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 50 Index, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [116][117][118]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of STAR 50ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [130][131][132]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of E Fund STAR 50ETF, the volatility chart, the volume PCR chart, the open interest PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term [140][141][142].