Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils for August 22, 2025, covering the price trends and core logics of varieties like soybean meal and palm oil [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report provides intraday, medium - term and reference views on soybean meal and palm oil futures, and analyzes the driving factors and core logics of their price trends [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign beans has been repaired. The US soybean futures price is oscillating strongly, while the domestic soybean futures price is in high - level oscillation. The market is in a game between near - term pressure and long - term supply gap. The soybean meal futures price has a high - level volatile market affected by the Sino - US negotiation process [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7] - **Core Logic**: The export growth of Malaysian palm oil exceeds market expectations, indicating strong demand. Coupled with the decline in Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June, the positive expectation of the international palm oil industry chain supports the palm oil futures price. The domestic palm oil futures price follows the international oil market, and is oscillating strongly in the short term with strong support below [7]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of government bond futures is that they will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased. The TL2509 variety is expected to oscillate in the short and medium - term and show a slightly weaker oscillation trend during the day [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is slightly weaker oscillation, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is slightly weaker oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that government bond futures oscillated and slightly rebounded yesterday. As market interest rates continue to rise, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, limiting the upward space of market interest rates, which means government bond futures have strong support. From the perspective of monetary policy, the focus of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the future is on structural loosening, and the possibility of comprehensive loosening has decreased. From the perspective of capital preference, the risk appetite in the stock market has continued to rise recently, and the profit - making effect in the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying government bonds [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a stable and volatile trend on Thursday. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment improved, and the expected production cut in Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries strengthened, reducing the supply pressure. It is expected that the contract will maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a stable and volatile trend on Thursday. After the digestion of previous negative factors, methanol rebounded from an oversold situation. However, the current supply - demand structure of methanol is still weak, and it is expected that the contract will have limited upward space and weak continuation of the rally [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a stable and volatile trend on Thursday. OPEC + oil - producing countries accelerated the expansion of production capacity, increasing supply pressure. The International Energy Agency and the US Energy Agency lowered the global crude oil demand forecasts for this year and next. Against the backdrop of a weakening supply - demand structure and the cooling of geopolitical risks due to the US mediation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the oil premium shrank. In the short term, supported by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected that domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices will maintain a stable and volatile trend [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons (0.50% decline) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12% to 76,900 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% to 539,800 tons. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.64 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.12 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [8]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and 10.55 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and 3.69 percentage points from the same period last year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%, with the growth rates 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 79.00%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8633 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 79,000 tons compared with 1.7843 million tons last year [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.13%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.17%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.56%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.21% [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a slight week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 3.61%. As of August 15, 2025, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week increase of 162 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 891,100 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 295,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 102,100 tons. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 295,700 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 56,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,700 tons compared with 438,400 tons last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 411, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 74 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.327 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 27,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 427 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 3.98 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.051 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 45,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 226,000 barrels [12]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.4%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.5 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.9 percentage points [12]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 116,742 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts (a decline of 36.27%) compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 12, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was maintained at 199,820 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts (a decline of 9.20%) compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,600 yuan/ton | - 250 yuan/ton | 15,800 yuan/ton | + 125 yuan/ton | - 1200 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2330 yuan/ton | + 20 yuan/ton | 2420 yuan/ton | - 4 yuan/ton | - 90 yuan/ton | + 4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 457.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.7 yuan/barrel | 489.3 yuan/barrel | + 6.5 yuan/barrel | - 31.6 yuan/barrel | - 7.2 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Includes charts of rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][15][20][22][24] - Methanol: Includes charts of methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][32][34][36] - Crude Oil: Includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][43][45][47][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On August 21, 2025, all stock indices oscillated and consolidated. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.4603 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume in the stock market remained above 2 trillion yuan, indicating that investors' sentiment was still relatively positive. However, due to the significant gains in some stocks, there was a need for profit - taking among profitable funds, and technically, there was a need for consolidation. Currently, the positive expectations strongly supported the stock indices. Anti - involution policies and consumption - promotion policies promoted a moderate recovery of the price index from both supply and demand sides, facilitating the repair of corporate profits. The capital market was relatively loose, and incremental funds continuously flowed into the stock market, driving the repair of stock index valuations. In general, it was expected that the stock indices would oscillate with a bias towards strength in the short term. - The implied volatility of options had rebounded. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indices, investors could continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a moderate bullish outlook [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - On August 21, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.50% to close at 2.990; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.32% to close at 4.378; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.44% to close at 4.515; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.39% to close at 4288.07; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.71% to close at 7253.34; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.56% to close at 6.786; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.59% to close at 2.712; the ChiNext ETF fell 0.62% to close at 2.572; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.10% to close at 3.124; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53% to close at 2862.18; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 0.00% to close at 1.21; and the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 0.08% to close at 1.18 [6] - The trading volume PCR and持仓量 PCR of various options on August 21, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous trading day were provided in detail, including those of 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options, and E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options [7] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were presented, such as the 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options, and E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options [8][9] 2 Related Charts - **Shanghai 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shanghai 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [10][11][12] - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [21][22][23] - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [34][35][36] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [47][48][49] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [60][61][62] - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [74][75][76] - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [87][88][89] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Included charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [102][103][104] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [115][116][117] - **Shanghai 50 Index Options**: Included charts of the Shanghai 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [128][129][130] - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [141][142][143] - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [146][147][148]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non-ferrous metals sector declined slightly, with the strength order being lead, tin, copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel [4]. - The open interest of zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased, that of copper remained basically flat, that of tin decreased slightly, and that of lead decreased significantly [4]. - In terms of basis, the basis of copper rebounded in the past week, while the others continued to decline [4]. - As China approaches the peak industrial seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", industrial support may strengthen, and the overall non-ferrous metals sector may stabilize with fluctuations. The basis and calendar spreads of varieties with low inventories may strengthen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - The report presents charts of copper futures price trends, 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount seasonality, copper concentrate port inventory, copper product operating rates, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [6][11][8][13][10][15]. Aluminum - It includes charts of aluminum futures price trends, aluminum premium/discount seasonality, bauxite port inventory, aluminum product operating rates, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [18][23][20][25][22][27]. Zinc - The content involves charts of zinc futures price trends, zinc premium/discount seasonality, zinc concentrate port inventory, galvanizing operating rates, refined zinc social inventory, and galvanized sheet total inventory [30][35][31][37][33][38]. Lead - There are charts of lead futures price trends, lead premium/discount seasonality, lead concentrate port inventory, lead operating rates, lead social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [41][45][42][46][43][48]. Tin - The report shows charts of tin futures price trends, tin premium/discount seasonality, tin concentrate prices, tin ore processing fees, refined tin social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (LME) [53][59][55][61][57][63]. Nickel - It contains charts of nickel futures price trends, nickel spot - futures spread seasonality, nickel ore port inventory, nickel iron operating rates, nickel social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (LME) [66][72][68][74][70][76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On August 21, the main coke contract closed at 1664 yuan/ton, down 0.95% intraday. The position of the main contract was 38,300 lots, a decrease of 808 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the first-grade wet quenching coke flat price index at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, up 3.40% week-on-week; the ex-warehouse price of the first-grade wet quenching coke at Qingdao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, down 0.68% week-on-week. Since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the news on the supply side of coking coal, the raw material for coke. Although the actual domestic coking coal supply has not been significantly affected so far, market expectations have improved. After a periodic adjustment, coke futures prices may still show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall, with the main bearish risk being that the reduction in coking coal supply falls short of expectations [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: On August 21, the main coking coal contract closed at 1147 points, down 1.50% intraday. The position of the main contract was 699,300 lots, an increase of 634 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1190 yuan/ton, flat week-on-week. Before the 9.3 parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production restriction pressure, and the short-term demand for coking coal is under pressure. Market differences between bulls and bears have increased, and coking coal futures have started to consolidate at high levels. However, considering the subsequent mild and orderly capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the pattern of oversupply of coking coal is expected to gradually ease, and the market supply-demand relationship will be promoted to a more balanced direction. In general, although there is a short-term adjustment, in the medium and long term, the coking coal price center still has an upward basis, with the main risk point being that the policy implementation strength falls short of expectations [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In July 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 1022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. The electricity consumption of the primary industry was 1.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 593.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 208.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 203.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [8]. - On August 21, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking coal with A9, S0.5, V20, and G85 was 1470 yuan/ton, including tax in cash [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week-on-Week Change | Month-on-Month Change | Year-on-Year Change | Year-on-Year Change Compared to the Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port First-Grade Flat Price) | 1520 yuan/ton | +3.40% | +7.04% | -10.06% | -15.08% | | Coke (Qingdao Port First-Grade Ex-warehouse Price) | 1470 yuan/ton | -0.68% | +5.00% | -9.26% | -14.53% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1190 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +3.48% | +0.85% | -15.60% | | Coking Coal (Australian Coal at Jingtang Port) | 1530 yuan/ton | -1.92% | +2.68% | +2.68% | -12.57% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi Coal at Jingtang Port) | 1630 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -1.21% | +6.54% | -4.12% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1664.0 yuan/ton | -0.95% | 1694.5 yuan/ton | 1657.0 yuan/ton | 22,209 lots | -8,512 lots | 38,252 lots | -808 lots | | Coking Coal | - | 1147.0 points | -1.50% | 1178.0 points | 1143.0 points | 1,364,024 lots | -610,454 lots | 699,348 lots | 634 lots | [14] Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][19]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of mine-mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all-sample independent coking plants on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [20][23][30]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [27][29][31]. Market Outlook - **Coke**: The situation is similar to the core view, with the price expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall after adjustment, mainly due to the improvement of market expectations for coking coal supply and the cooperation of the coal industry association and coal enterprises with anti-involution policies [33]. - **Coking Coal**: In the short term, it is under pressure due to production restrictions around Beijing, but in the medium and long term, the price center has an upward basis with the easing of the oversupply pattern through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading [34].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper showed a slight downward oscillation with a slight increase in open interest. Recently, copper prices have been weak, but the amplitude has been narrowing, and open interest has stabilized. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled, and overseas risk appetite has declined. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper began to decline on Thursday. As the peak season approaches, industrial support may continue to strengthen. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation with an increase in open interest. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods continued to decline slowly. As the peak season approaches, industrial support for aluminum prices has increased. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel increased in position and declined, with the main contract price breaking through the 120,000 - yuan mark. At the macro - level, the bullish atmosphere in the domestic market has cooled. At the industrial level, high domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories keep the nickel fundamentals weak. In the short term, with the cooling of the macro - atmosphere and weak fundamentals, the nickel price has broken through the 120,000 - yuan mark, and the futures price is expected to continue its decline [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 21, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 129,700 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to the 14th and 14,500 tons compared to the 18th. The procurement and sales sentiment in the Shanghai area has improved. Looking ahead to tomorrow, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and under the drag of low - priced imported goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, as it is Friday tomorrow, the downstream procurement sentiment is expected to be strong, so the decline of the spot premium of Shanghai copper is limited [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 21, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 579,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the 14th and a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to the 18th. In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 611,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In July 2025, the export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [10]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,700 - 122,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,100 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides various charts for copper, aluminum, and nickel, including base differentials, inventory changes, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper base differentials, domestic and overseas inventory changes, and LME copper cancellation warrant ratios; for aluminum, there are charts of aluminum base differentials, social inventory changes, and alumina inventory changes; for nickel, there are charts of nickel base differentials, inventory changes, and LME nickel trends [12][25][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices continue to face pressure. However, the increase in costs provides some downward resistance. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.44%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the concerns about hot-rolled coil demand remain, and the supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals have not substantially improved. The relatively positive factors are the increase in costs and production restrictions. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.98%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore has certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of ore is high, and the growth space of demand is limited. The fundamentals of ore have not substantially improved, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price is not strong. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In July 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 1022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. From January to July, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 5863.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [6]. - The "Guiding Opinions" require localities to give priority to implementing projects with certain returns, and ensure the completion of projects. For projects close to completion, construction should be accelerated, acceptance and final accounts should be carried out in a timely manner, and they should be put into operation as soon as possible. For slowly progressing projects, measures such as reducing the implementation scale, optimizing construction standards, and adjusting supporting construction content should be studied to reduce unnecessary construction costs. In principle, projects that have not started construction before the end of 2024 should no longer be implemented in the PPP stock project model [7]. - As of August 21, 6 listed steel companies announced their performance in the first half of 2025, with a total operating income of 198.591 billion yuan and a total net profit of 6.755 billion yuan. All 6 companies were profitable [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3270 yuan, 3280 yuan, and 3342 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3420 yuan, 3370 yuan, and 3476 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3020 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2120 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 150 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1150 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 770 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 9.18 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.73 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 101.26 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 100.60 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3121 yuan, with a decline of 0.03%, the highest price was 3145 yuan, the lowest price was 3115 yuan, the trading volume was 1125179 lots, a decrease of 192195 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1458111 lots, a decrease of 65281 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3375 yuan, with a decline of 0.44%, the highest price was 3417 yuan, the lowest price was 3372 yuan, the trading volume was 572544 lots, a decrease of 46710 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1047482 lots, a decrease of 76410 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 772.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.98%, the highest price was 780.0 yuan, the lowest price was 770.0 yuan, the trading volume was 281755 lots, a decrease of 7611 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 451574 lots, an increase of 11185 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of steel inventory (rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (port and steel mill), and steel mill production situation (blast furnace开工率, electric furnace开工率, etc.) [15][20][32]. Market Outlook - The supply-demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.73 tons. Demand has weakened, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate [39]. - The supply-demand pattern of hot-rolled coil has improved. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 0.70 tons. Demand has improved, but the concerns about demand remain, and the supply is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to fluctuate [39]. - The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased. However, the supply of ore is increasing. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the price of iron ore will continue to fluctuate at a high level [40].

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for August 21, 2025, covering multiple commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Not provided in the report Summary by Commodity Category Thermal Coal - The report presents the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of thermal coal from August 14 to 20, 2025. The basis values are -106.4, -103.4, -100.4, -99.4, -97.4 for respective dates, while all spreads are 0.0 [2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on basis, price ratios, and related indicators of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from August 14 to 20, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 20 was 136.18 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - The basis, spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP, etc.) are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 20 was -1075 yuan/ton [9][11] Black Metals - The report shows the cross - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) and cross - commodity spreads (such as screw/ore, screw/coke) of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. The basis data from August 14 to 20, 2025 are also presented [20][21] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from August 14 to 20, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on August 20 was 30 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss of non - ferrous metals in the London market on August 20, 2025 are provided [35] Agricultural Products - The basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) are presented. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on August 20 was 4284.54 yuan/ton [39] Stock Index Futures - The basis and cross - period spreads of stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 20 was 1.40 [51][53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.96% to 15,755 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian producing areas are in the rubber - tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has seen a decline in inventory, a decrease in operating load, and obstacles in export sales with a slowdown in growth. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut also affects the market [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising significantly by 2.03% to 11,790 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has a decline in inventory, a decrease in operating load, and obstacles in export sales with a slowdown in growth. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut also has an impact [7].