1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the asphalt market are bearish. Supply pressure is high, demand recovery is weak, the cost support from crude oil is weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term. The asphalt 2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 3300 - 3368 [7][8][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. The bullish factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78%. Refineries have reduced production, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are mostly lower than or close to historical averages, indicating that current demand is lower than historical averages [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8] - **Other Aspects**: The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. On February 9th, the Shandong spot price was 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 137 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory increased by 5.16% month - on - month, the in - plant inventory decreased by 3.15% month - on - month, and the port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 20.24% month - on - month. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 04 contract closed above the MA20 [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of most asphalt futures contracts decreased, with the 04 contract closing at 3347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 1.59% compared to the previous value [15] - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis at - 137 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan compared to the previous value [15] - **Some Inter - monthly Spreads**: The spreads of some contract combinations changed, such as the 3 - 6 spread changing from - 3 to - 6, a change rate of 100.00% [15] - **Weekly Data**: Weekly inventory, operating rate, output, and other data also showed corresponding changes, such as the social inventory increasing by 5.16% week - on - week, and the national heavy - traffic operating rate decreasing by 4.39% week - on - week [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [20][22] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spreads**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026 [24][25] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spreads**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2026 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratios**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [34][35] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Prices in Different Regions**: The report shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2026 [37][38] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [40][41] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [43][44][45] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [46][47] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [49][50] - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2026 [52][53] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The report shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [56][58] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [59][60] - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [62][63] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [65][66] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [68][69][71] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and in - plant inventory (54 sample enterprises) from 2022 to 2026 [72][73] - **In - Plant Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [75][76] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [82][83] - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [84][85] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][92] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97] - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [99][100] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [105][106][107] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [109][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range this week. The inland methanol market is entering the pre - holiday rest period. Demand is decreasing as traditional downstream devices such as formaldehyde have stopped for holidays and some downstream has completed pre - holiday stockpiling. The supply side remains sufficient with no obvious pressure as domestic methanol factories are increasing sales efforts and inventory levels are low. The port market is expected to oscillate at the bottom before the holiday, with the suggestion to reduce risk exposure. The report also mentions to watch whether and when US President Trump will launch a real armed action against Iran, with a neutral stance. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2605 operating between 2210 - 2280 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The methanol 2605 contract: In terms of fundamentals, the inland market will maintain a light consolidation pattern, and the port market will oscillate at the bottom. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. As of February 5, 2026, the social inventory in East and South China ports decreased slightly, and the tradable supply in coastal areas also decreased. The 20 - day line is flat with the price below the average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2210 - 2280 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some devices like Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped. The methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. The 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16, and Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong's 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously stopped devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operation. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the prices of some varieties such as coking coal in the Bohai Rim and CFR China Main Port remained unchanged, while the prices in Inner Mongolia and Fujian increased by 65 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The futures closing price decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan increased by 11 yuan/ton, and the import spread increased by 1 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operation rate data**: The weighted average national operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions decreased by 2.39%, 1.22%, and 3.55% respectively [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of February 5, 2026, the social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased by 3.24 million tons to 961,400 tons, and the tradable supply in coastal areas decreased by 355,000 tons to 463,900 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic device maintenance**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by region and enterprise [60]. - **Foreign device operation**: In Iran, some devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. Devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally, but some have low operation rates or are in the process of maintenance [61]. - **Olefin device operation**: Some olefin devices in Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions are operating normally, while some are under maintenance or have low loads [62].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant information provided Group 3: Option Quotes - The daily price increase rates of call options for tin, caustic soda, and copper are 145.46%, 114.29%, and 39.01% respectively. The daily price increase rates of put options for log, styrene, and asphalt are 62.50%, 54.94%, and 40.30% respectively [1]. Group 4: Option Positions - The daily changes in call option positions for soda ash, glass, and methanol are 28,697, 19,552, and 18,395 respectively. The daily changes in put option positions for caustic soda, PTA, and glass are 24,635, 18,672, and 14,859 respectively [2]. Group 5: Option Position Put - Call Ratio PCR - High - position PCR varieties include apple (1.6364), offset printing paper (1.2648), and propylene (1.0963). Low - position PCR varieties include soda ash (0.2516), live pigs (0.2569), and alumina (0.2755) [5]. Group 6: Option Trading Volume Put - Call Ratio PCR - High - trading - volume PCR varieties include apple (1.6044), offset printing paper (1.1722), and iron ore (1.1403). Low - trading - volume PCR varieties include ethylene glycol (0.1602), Chinese dates (0.183), and lead (0.2236) [6]. Group 7: Daily Selections - Call option selections include alumina (ao2605C2900), sugar (SR605C5300), and peanuts (PK605C8000). Put option selections include ethylene glycol (eg2605 - P - 3550), industrial silicon (si2605 - P - 8100), and plastic (l2605 - P - 6500) [7]. Group 8: Near - Expiration Options - For call options of near - expiration options, such as cotton (CF603C14800), the remaining days are 2, the option closing price is 22.0, and the break - even target price is 14,825.0 with a break - even target increase rate of 1.02%. For put options, such as cotton (CF603P14600), the break - even target price is 14,552.0 with a break - even target decrease rate of - 0.84% [8][9].

2026年2月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2026年1月PVC产量为214.863万吨，环比增加0.53%；本周样本企 业产能利用率为79.26%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.833万吨，环比增加 0.34%,乙烯法企业产量13.696万吨，环比增加0.62%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修 有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为41.42%，环比减少3.33个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型 材开工率为29.13%，环比减少2.39个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33%，环 比减少4个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24720，基差+180；偏多。 3、库存：2月9日LME锌库存较上日减少675吨至106925吨，2月9日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加176吨至31264吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于25/26年度的470 万吨。Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。2025 年12月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖470.18万吨；全国累计销糖157万吨；销糖率33.39%。 2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97万吨，同 比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-10锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2605： 2 1.基本面：从成本端来看，整体锰矿成交价格仍处于高位且整体市场暂稳，对硅锰合金价格仍有较强成本支撑；2026年内 蒙地区地方电价以及南方电价对合金的成本预计上涨可能性较大。上周硅锰合金成本支撑暂稳。从供应端来看，前期北方 主产区新增硅锰炉子陆续出铁，普硅硅锰供应压力增加。春节将近，南方合金厂开工率稳定较低，厂家选择暂时停产，观 望态度浓厚，等待年后的电费结算价格。当前硅锰供应宽松压力仍存。从需求端来看，河钢集团26年2月硅锰采购情况等 待验证。当前硅锰市场仍以震荡运行为主基调；中性。 2.基差：现货价5750元/吨，05合约基差-62/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 黄金 1、基本面：英国政坛突发"黑天鹅"，金价震荡回升；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧 洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率多数下跌，10年期美债收益率跌0.19个基点 报4.202%；美元指数跌0.78%报96.85，离岸人民币对美元升值报6.9152；COMEX黄金 期货涨2.10%报5084.20美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1125.94，现货1123，基差-4.08，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单104052 千克，不变；偏空 6、预期：今日关注美国12月零售销售和进口价格指数、美联储官员讲话 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2210 - 2270. The market was affected by the easing of China - Canada trade relations, showing short - term weakening in oscillations, but is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations in the medium term. The overall situation will return to an oscillatory pattern after the digestion of negative factors, and the development of China - Canada trade relations should be closely monitored [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the long - holiday off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Due to the China - Canada trade issue, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased, leading to an expected reduction in domestic supply [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relationship has improved in the short term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually lifted, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. The future situation depends on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia relatively offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The demand for rapeseed meal in China is expected to remain good after the Spring Festival, and the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered a short - term off - season, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume due to the improvement of China - Canada trade relations [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Transaction data**: From January 30 to February 9, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2430 - 2470 yuan, and the daily trading volume was mostly 0 or 0.5 - 30,000 tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 667 - 691 yuan [13]. - **Price data**: From February 2 to February 9, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main contract RM2605 fluctuated between 2238 - 2276 yuan, the far - month contract RM2609 fluctuated between 2284 - 2297 yuan, and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2430 - 2460 yuan [15]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From January 30 to February 9, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - **Supply - demand balance data**: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance from 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance during the same period, the total supply and demand also showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **View**: The rapeseed meal market is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical oscillations. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market has returned to an oscillatory pattern. The spot demand has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good. The short - term market is affected by the easing of China - Canada trade relations and shows weak oscillations, while the medium - term remains range - bound [9]. - **Analysis of influencing factors**: The basis is at a premium, which is bullish; the inventory has decreased compared with the previous week and the same period last year, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions have increased and the funds have flowed in, which is bearish [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase as the secondary fattening period in southern China ends and the demand for cured meat and sausages also finishes. Although the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, pork consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the overall future consumption is not optimistic. The market this week may see an increase in supply and a weakening demand expectation, and pig prices may enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of live pigs: The end of the secondary fattening period in southern China leads to a short - term increase in the number of pigs for sale, suppressing pig prices. The demand for cured meat and sausages has ended, and overall, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but pork consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and future consumption is not optimistic. The market this week may have more supply and weaker demand expectations, and pig prices may enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms in the middle of the month and the dynamic changes in the spot price of the secondary fattening market, which may support the bottom of the futures market. The view is neutral. - The basis: The national average spot price is 11,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2605 contract is 145 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor. - Inventory: As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. This is a bearish factor. - The disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. This is a bearish factor. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. This is a bearish factor. - Expectation: In the near term, both the supply and demand of live pigs are increasing. It is expected that pig prices will bottom out and rebound this week and generally maintain a range - bound pattern. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the peak demand season. With the end of secondary fattening in southern China, the number of live pigs for sale has increased, and the supply expectation has increased. The spot price is weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. - As the demand for cured meat at the end of the year gradually fades, the live pig spot market enters a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. The room for further price decline in the short term may be limited, and the price may bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern. - The loss of domestic live pig breeding profit has fluctuated slightly recently and remains slightly in the red in the short term. The enthusiasm for selling large pigs has increased in the short term, and the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets. - The live pig spot price is weak in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate and decline in the short term, bottom out and rebound in the medium term, or maintain a range - bound pattern. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The domestic demand for live pigs is still in the peak season at the end of the year; the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to the historical low range. - Bearish factors: The secondary fattening of live pigs at the end of the year in China has increased, and there is concentrated slaughter; the year - on - year decrease in the live pig inventory is lower than expected. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from February 2 to February 9, including the prices of near - month 2603 and main 2605 contracts, the number of warehouse receipts, and the spot prices of outer - ternary live pigs in different regions [14]. - It also shows the historical trends of live pig basis, contract spreads, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs, and the prices of related indicators on the supply side (such as the average price of binary sows, 7kg piglets, and culled sows; piglet feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate; monthly live pig inventory and its month - on - month trend; monthly inventory of breeding sows; live pig inventory of large - scale farms; monthly pork import trend; fattening cost; feed profit expectation; live pig slaughter volume and average weight; slaughter profit; self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet profit; price difference between pigs and other meats), on the slaughter side (such as the average price of白条, the price difference between live pigs and白条, the slaughter settlement price, the average price in 36 cities), on the demand side (such as the annual pork consumption volume), the pig - grain ratio, and the historical trends of live pig price increases and decreases, and the situation of live pig storage and release [15][17][23][50][60][63][67]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the document