交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-31 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1180元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1235元/吨，基差为-55元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.2万吨，较前一周减少0.01%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳回升。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 一、纯碱期 ...

尿素早报 2025-10-31 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率开始高位回落，综合库存小幅回落。需求端，农业需求受天气 影响有所回升，工业需求显著偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价差较大但有所回 落，出口量提升。国内尿素整体仍供过于求，但行情短期预计回暖。交割品现货1580（-0），基 本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-47，升贴水比例-3.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存184万吨（-20.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面，工业需求偏弱，农业需求 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 股指期货早报- 2025年10月31日 早评 期指 IC2512贴水86.71点，IM2512贴水120.68点，偏空 期债 1、基本面：中美领导人会晤，达成较大共识短期利好落地，指数回落调整，期指贴水增加；中性 2、资金：融资余额24885亿元，增加116亿元；偏多 3、基差：IH2512升水1.61点，IF2512贴水9.91点，中性 4、盘面：IH>IC>IF>IM，IH、IF、IC、IM在20日均线上方，偏多 5、主力持仓： IF 主力多减，IH主力多增，IC 主力多减，偏多 6、预期：中美领导人会晤达成较大共识，当天市场短期利好兑现获利了解，四中全会后科技板块走 强，指数迎来反弹上涨，目前来看日内大涨建议适当减仓，指数维持震荡偏强运行。 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2960 - 3020. The US soybean market is affected by the preliminary Sino - US agreement and technical buying, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend, but high imports in October and spot price discounts suppress the market, likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The US soybean market is affected by trade negotiation signals and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean market is supported by the US soybean trend and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports, but high imports and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt There is no specific content provided for the daily prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean weather. The US soybean market will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills declined from a high level in October. The soybean meal market will return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continued to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations will keep the soybean meal market oscillating in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2940, with a basis of - 54, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 3, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Transaction Data**: The report provides the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from October 22 to 30, as well as the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from October 22 to 30 [16][18]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: It shows the warehouse receipt data of soybeans and soybean meal from October 21 to 30, including changes compared to the previous day [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: The sowing and growth progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), and Brazil (2024/25) are presented, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, etc. [34][35][39]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, and exports [43]. - **Other Market Conditions**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from a high level in October but increased year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [44][46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation. The supply side has a high - level production, with the predicted increase in both production and import volume in the next month. The demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. Cost - wise, the cost of some ore - sourced materials is rising, resulting in losses, while the cost of the salt - lake side is low with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Overall, due to capacity mismatch leading to strong supply and weak demand, the downward trend is difficult to change. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 82,480 - 84,320 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% week - on - week decrease, but higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in the next month will be 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 19,597 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 22,000 tons, a 12.26% increase [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,347 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,592 tons, a 3.50% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 80,456 yuan/ton, a 1.11% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,583 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 85,678 yuan/ton, a 1.37% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 8,830 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On October 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 3,400 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 32,051 tons, a 4.83% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 53,288 tons, a 3.59% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, and the basis of most contracts has changed, with the spot generally at a discount to the futures. The prices of upstream lithium ores, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have also changed to different extents [13]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate and related materials have changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the monthly export has also increased significantly [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed, with the overall inventory showing a downward trend [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic large - scale pig farms has begun to decrease after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which supports the short - term price of live pigs. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will both decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double - decline in supply and demand this week, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and maintaining a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,700 - 12,100 [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided for daily prompt. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market has entered a slack season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price of live pigs is weak in the short term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short term after the festivals, but the spot price of live pigs has returned to an oscillating state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [10]. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profits has recently widened, and the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has weakened in the short term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The spot price of live pigs has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The domestic live pig supply has entered a slack season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. - **Bearish factors**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand**: In the supply aspect, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. In the demand aspect, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [8]. - **Base difference**: The national average spot price is 12,510 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 2601 contract is 630 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is high, with refineries reducing production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply may increase next week. The total planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The total sample enterprise output is 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74% [8]. - The demand is weak, with the current demand below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 9.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 12.0898%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 32%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 percentage points [8]. - The cost support is weakening. The daily asphalt processing profit is - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - The inventory shows a mixed trend. The social inventory is 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; the in - plant inventory is 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; the diluted asphalt inventory is 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. The social inventory and in - plant inventory are continuously decreasing, while the port inventory is continuously increasing [8]. - The market is expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term. The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3232 - 3276 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: The supply pressure is high. Although refineries have reduced production this week, supply may increase next week. The planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 shows a significant month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand - side**: The demand is sluggish, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt below the historical average, indicating that the overall demand recovery is weak [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost support is weakening due to the increase in asphalt processing losses and the decrease in the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the weakening of crude oil [8]. - **Inventory**: The social and in - plant inventories are decreasing, while the port inventory is increasing [8]. - **Market Expectation**: The asphalt market is expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3232 and 3276 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 20 yuan to 3254 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%. The social inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 4.38%. The in - plant inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 710,000 tons, a decrease of 2.34% [15]. - **Analysis of Basis, Spread, and Price Ratios**: - **Basis**: On October 30, the Shandong spot price was 3270 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 16 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Spread**: The report provides the spread trends of asphalt contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12), asphalt - crude oil prices, and asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratios, which can help investors understand the price relationships between different contracts and products [20][23][30]. - **Price Ratios**: The price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented, which are important for analyzing the relative value of different products [30]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: - **Profit Analysis**: The asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt are analyzed, showing the profitability of asphalt production and its relationship with coking [36][39]. - **Supply - side**: It includes aspects such as the shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, output, price of Ma Rui crude oil, and production capacity utilization rate. For example, the weekly shipment volume of sample enterprises is 290,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73% [42]. - **Inventory**: It covers the exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio. The social inventory and in - plant inventory are decreasing, while the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing [62][66][69]. - **Import and Export**: The export and import trends of asphalt are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [72]. - **Demand - side**: It includes the output of petroleum coke, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, sales of asphalt - related machinery), and asphalt开工 rates. The overall demand is weak, with most asphalt开工 rates below the historical average [78][81][84]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the relationship between supply and demand in different months of 2024 - 2025, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and output [103][104].

证券代码：839979 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8352，基差184，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：7900-8300附近区间震荡 油脂早报 2025-10-31投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-31） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：受国家宏观调控，超产煤矿产量依旧受压制，焦煤供应释放有限。焦炭价格向好，带动焦 煤市场情绪积极，加之近期下游需求回暖，煤矿库存低位，销售顺畅，线上竞拍价格也以上涨为主，市 场交投氛围良好，煤矿报价也多小幅上行，且部分煤种涨后出货稳定，下游要货依旧积极；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1390，基差102；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 6、预期：焦企原料煤库存均处于中低位水平，加之焦炭市场第三轮提涨开启，市场情绪向好下，对炼 焦煤采购需求不减。但考虑焦钢利润微薄 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格跌破15美分/磅，进口利润窗口打开，进口冲击 加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 白糖早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 ...