交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-11-03 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3000至3060区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，中国开始采购美国大豆和技术性买盘支撑，美豆短期偏强震荡等 待中美贸易谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升，美豆走 势带动和技术性震荡整理，但需求短期处于淡季和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度，短 期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2970（华东），基差-51，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存105.46万吨，上周97.62万吨，环比增加8.03%，去年同期105.28万吨， 同比增加0.17%。偏空 4. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-3 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1170元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1225元/吨，基差为-55元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.2万吨，较前一周减少0.01%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 利空： 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳回升。 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给高位，终 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-11-3） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 铁矿石港口现货价格 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价848，基差48；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价866，基差66，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存15272.93万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线走平；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel 2512), it is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average, with some support from the cost line below. The overall situation is affected by macro - factors, with a long - term surplus pattern. The short - term situation is affected by factors such as nickel ore price, nickel iron price, and inventory [2]. - For Stainless Steel (Stainless Steel 2512), it is expected to operate with wide fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average. The spot price has declined, and the cost line has loosened downward [4]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Nickel Price**: On October 31, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan, down 390 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel was at 15,250 yuan, unchanged. The spot prices of various nickel types all decreased slightly. For example, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,950 yuan, down 250 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan on October 31, down 70 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions also decreased [11]. 2. Inventory Information - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 31, LME nickel inventory was 252,102 tons, an increase of 462 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,388 tons, a decrease of 144 tons. The total inventory increased by 318 tons [14]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On October 31, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 651,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 73,657 tons, a decrease of 120 tons [19][20]. 3. Cost Information - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Price**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on October 31 compared to the previous day. The price of high - nickel ferronickel decreased slightly, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged. The sea freight also remained stable [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,852 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,012 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,669 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price was 122,291 yuan/ton [28]. 4. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The price of nickel ore is firm, which provides some support to the cost line [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Both domestic and overseas inventories are accumulating [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways with an upward bias" rating for SHFE Zinc ZN2512 [2][19] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw SHFE Zinc rebound sideways, closing with a positive candlestick and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with long positions decreasing more. It was a volume - shrinking rebound, indicating short - term sideways rebound potential. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system with strong support. Short - term indicators KDJ declined while in the strong zone, and the trend indicator rose, with long - side strength increasing and short - side strength decreasing, and the two sides starting to stalemate [19] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2] Basis - The spot price was 22,340, and the basis was - 15, indicating a neutral situation [2] Inventory - On October 31, LME zinc inventory increased by 400 tons to 35,300 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 650 tons to 67,774 tons compared to the previous day, showing a bearish sign [2] Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes - On October 31, the total trading volume of zinc futures was 142,461 lots, with a total trading value of 1.59269604 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 211,109 lots, a decrease of 3,692 lots [3] Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes - On October 31, the domestic zinc concentrate spot TC for domestic ore was 3,200 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; for imported ore, it was 100 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions showed an upward trend [4] National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 20 to October 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 0.03 tons compared to October 23 and decreased by 0.15 tons compared to October 27 [5] Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On October 31, the total zinc warrants on the SHFE were 67,774 tons, an increase of 650 tons, mainly from the increase in Tianjin warrants [6] LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics - On October 31, the total LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared to the previous day [7] National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On October 31, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all increased by 30 yuan/ton [9] National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 31, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all increased by 30 yuan/ton [12] Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production value was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 31, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% - grade ore in different regions were between 3,000 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% - grade ore processing fee was 100 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/dry ton [17] SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2512 on October 31, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 150,088 lots, a decrease of 24,859 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 79,793 lots, a decrease of 4,230 lots, and the total short positions were 77,694 lots, a decrease of 1,393 lots [18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 MEG 每日观点 MEG： 1、基本面：周五，乙二醇价格重心弱势整理，市场商谈一般。日内乙二醇盘面窄幅整理，午后现货基差走弱走势，下周现货成交 回落至01合约升水73-75元/吨附近。美金方面，乙二醇外盘重心低位整理，近期船货商谈在482-486美元/吨展开，市场商谈偏弱。 内外盘成交商谈区间分别4087-4126元/吨，481-487美元/吨。中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：周内因部分合约商补货积极，本周现货基差高位运行，后续关注贸易商补货持续性。周内外轮到货一般，个别大船长江 口等待时间偏久，预计下周初累库不及预期。基本面来看 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-3） 焦煤： 6、预期：下游焦钢企业库存偏低，整体需求尚可，且当前铁水产量仍处相对高位，钢企减产动力不足， 焦煤刚需稳定。但当前煤价涨幅较大，利润承压下，目前焦企提产空间有限，部分小幅限产，影响原料 煤需求力度释放有限，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：目前产地供应尚未有明显提升，煤矿挺价意愿较强。焦钢企业原料库存处较低水平，补库 需求仍存，且焦炭第三轮提涨开启，带动多煤种报价继续上调，线上竞拍整体成交表现良好，成交率较 高。考虑煤矿供应紧张持续，下游用户拉运积极，市场整体供应量仍偏紧，煤企对后市仍有看涨预期； 偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1390，基差104；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-3 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：供给低位企稳回升，但沙河地区"煤改气"等供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单 整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱，库存高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1048元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1083元/吨，基差为-35元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6579万重量箱，较前一周减少1.24%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 早评 期指 1、基本面：中美领导人会晤，达成较大共识短期利好落地，权重指数回落调整，双创领跌，消费医 药板块反弹，市场风格有所改变；偏空 IC2512贴水88.6点，IM2512贴水138.47点，偏空 期债 股指期货早报- 2025年11月3日 2、资金：融资余额24811亿元，减少74亿元；偏空 3、基差：IH2512升水3.65点，IF2512贴水9.27点，中性 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期货市场-上证50基差与价差 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2021/11/10 2021/12/21 2022/2/8 2022/3/18 2022/5/5 2022/6/16 2022/7/27 2022/9/6 2022/10/25 2022/ ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report - November 3, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bond market sentiment is warm, with long - term bonds performing better. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.42%. The 10 - month PMI data led to higher expectations of policy easing in Q4, boosting bond market buying. There is a certain safety cushion for entering the bond market now. The overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions rose slightly and stabilized around 1.31%. The yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined by more than 2bp [3]. - On October 31, the People's Bank of China conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 168 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on that day, the net investment was 187.1 billion yuan [3]. Basis Analysis - TS main basis is - 0.0487, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. TF main basis is - 0.06167, also bearish. T main basis is 0.1238, indicating the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. TL main basis is - 0.0061, bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion, 1493.5 billion, and 2359.9 billion respectively, considered neutral [4]. Disk Analysis - TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. Main Position Analysis - TS main contract has a net long position with an increase in long positions. TF main contract also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5]. Expectation Analysis - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below the boom - bust line. In September, CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 5 consecutive months. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October FOMC meeting [5]. Group 3: Market Quotes - T2512.CFE: Price is 108.680, up 0.04%, trading volume is 66178, open interest is 242555, with a daily decrease of 2555, and the CTD bond is 220019.IB [8]. - TF2512.CFE: Price is 106.065, down 0.01%, trading volume is 51145, open interest is 149424, with a daily increase of 155, and the CTD bond is 250003.IB [8]. - TS2512.CFE: Price is 102.544, down 0.02%, trading volume is 30841, open interest is 72375, with a daily decrease of 1166, and the CTD bond is 250012.IB [8]. - TL2512.CFE: Price is 116.68, up 0.42%, trading volume is 103750, open interest is 142750, with a daily decrease of 1328, and the CTD bond is 210005.IB [8].