交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-07燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构小幅回升，但交易商仍担忧供应充足及季节性公用事业发电需求消 退将压制市场基本面，贸易商表示，尽管西北欧至新加坡的合规0.5%船燃套利窗口持续关闭，但8月预计 将有更多低硫调和组分从苏伊士以西的市场流入亚洲市场；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油406.42美元/吨，基差为173元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为504.5美元/吨，基差 为163元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月30日当周库存为2027.9万桶，增加37万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - PTA: Recently, the macro atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and the cost - end support is insufficient. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity and lacks upward drivers. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival of foreign MEG vessels is relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase periodically. In August, the MEG fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that MEG will be mainly in a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - end and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA: - Fundamentals: The news of Ineos reducing its load during the day boosted the market, and combined with the warming of the commodity atmosphere, the PTA futures market rose rapidly and finally closed up in a volatile manner. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, the spot basis was weak, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The mainstream suppliers offered August goods. There were transactions at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 09 contract for the middle and early August, and at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract for the late August, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4720. The suppliers' August goods were traded at a discount of 20 to the 09 contract. The goods in mid - September were traded at a premium of 0 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 21 to the 09 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4675, the basis of the 09 contract is - 49, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main positions: Net short positions, and short positions increased [6]. - MEG: - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol remained firm at a high level, and the market transactions were okay. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and consolidated. The spot negotiation was at a premium of 78 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market was strong. Traders in the market actively participated in contract replenishment. In the afternoon, the basis of the far - month futures weakened. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market rose slightly. The mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was at 525 - 530 US dollars/ton, and the shipments during the day were traded at around 526 - 529 US dollars/ton. The inquiry intention in the market was okay. The Taiwan tender goods were traded at around 532 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 3000 tons [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4493, the basis of the 09 contract is 79, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main positions: The main net short positions, and short positions decreased [7]. 3.今日关注 No relevant information provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. 5.影响因素总结 - Bullish factors: Some PTA devices are planned to be overhauled in August, and the supply - demand expectation is improved [8]. - Bearish factors: From the demand side, at the end of the export rush + domestic off - season, the downward trend of terminal demand is certain [8]. 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the market rebounds [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-7 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差50，升贴水比例2.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight crude oil prices remained low. Trump's statement on sanctions against Russia will be decided after the envoy's meeting with Russian officials. The threat to India has not completely deterred India's purchases, and the oil price has shed its previous premium due to eased sentiment. Although the API inventory has significantly decreased, it has not significantly boosted the oil price. The market is waiting for more decisions on sanctions against Russia and the upcoming implementation of comprehensive reciprocal tariffs. The oil price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term, with a short - term range of 500 - 508, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - Trump will "significantly" increase the tariffs on goods imported from India from the current 25% within the next 24 hours and will decide whether to sanction countries that purchase Russian oil after the US - Russia official meeting on Wednesday. Fed's Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and two interest rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment, but it's also possible that there won't be two cuts, and more cuts are more likely. The base difference shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, while the EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels in the week ending July 25th. As of August 5th, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. As of July 29th, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3] 3.2 Recent News - The Kremlin is considering making concessions to Trump, possibly including an air cease - fire agreement with Ukraine to avoid "secondary sanctions." Trump threatened to impose heavy taxes on countries like India that purchase Russian oil and other commodities from Friday. The US trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% to $60.2 billion in June, and the trade deficit with China shrank to the lowest in 21 years. In July, the US service - sector business activity was basically flat, orders hardly changed, employment weakened further, and input costs rose at the largest rate in nearly three years [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6] - **Likely to be Bearish**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US has a tense trade relationship with other economies [6] - **Market Drivers**: Geopolitical conflicts are likely to drive up prices in the short term, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the long term [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude decreased by - 1.63%, - 1.70%, - 1.49%, and - 1.12% respectively [7] - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude decreased by - 2.14%, - 1.70%, - 0.81%, - 0.36%, and - 1.36% respectively [9] - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels in the week ending August 1st. The EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels in the week ending July 25th, and the inventory in the Cushing area increased by 690,000 barrels in the same week [3] 3.5 Position Data - As of July 29th, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased, with an increase of 2,692 for WTI and 33,959 for Brent [3][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2980 and 3040. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather and Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the domestic soybean meal market is influenced by import volume and inventory [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also expected to be range - bound, with the A2509 contract fluctuating between 4080 and 4180. It is affected by factors like South American soybean harvest, import volume, and domestic production expectations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4080 and 4180 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the short - term US market has oscillated downward, expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The domestic import soybean arrival volume remained high in July, the oil mill soybean meal inventory continued to rise, and the soybean meal market returned to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig breeding profit has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price expectation, and the uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations has led the soybean meal market to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory continues to rise. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war, so the soybean meal market will maintain short - term oscillations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain US soybean production area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high domestic import soybean arrival volume in July and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of South American soybean bumper harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expectation of increased domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of Brazilian soybean bumper harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 for the global market and from 2015 to 2024 for the domestic market [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include the 2023/24 Argentina soybean planting and harvest progress, 2024 US soybean planting, growth, and harvest progress, 2024/25 Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting and harvest progress [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show data from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The peak of imported soybean arrival volume was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, but it is still considered bullish [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed out, also considered bullish [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with domestic demand recovery being sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4984 - 5100. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8][9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is not smooth [13]. - The main influencing factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, export advantages, overall supply pressure rebound, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Base Price**: On August 5th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 62 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 34534 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous period. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 44800 tons, a 4.91% increase. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Market Trend**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased, showing a bearish signal [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.84%, with no change from the previous period. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 32458 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 12770 tons, a 12.82% increase. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a 0.169 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a 0.439 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a 5.25 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain weak [8]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 84.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 5.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2690.05 yuan/ton, with a profit increase of 0.70% from the previous period, higher than the historical average, and production scheduling may increase [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and operating rates of different production methods and regions [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report presents the historical trend chart of the base price of PVC futures [18]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position trends of the PVC futures main contract [22]. - **Spread Analysis**: It provides the historical trend chart of the spread of the PVC futures main contract [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production trends of Lancoke [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: The price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt are shown [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory trends of caustic soda are provided [35][38]. 3.5.2 Supply Trends - The report shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production, maintenance volume, and overall capacity utilization rate and production trends of PVC [40][41]. 3.5.3 Demand Trends - It presents the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of various PVC products, as well as the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also shows the profit, production, cost, and apparent consumption of paste resin, and relevant data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [43][47][55]. 3.5.4 Inventory - The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the FOB spread of ethylene method and the import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [65].

菜粕早报 2025-08-06 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 1.国内水产养殖进入旺季，国产油菜籽上市，现货市场供应偏紧预期改 善，需求端维持良好预期。 2.加拿大油菜籽年度产量小幅减少支撑外盘期货，中国对加拿大菜子油 和油渣饼加征关税，另外中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销调查尚在进行，未 来结果尚有变数，或会等待中加贸易关系进一步发展情况明朗再行决定。 3.全球油菜籽今年产量小幅减少，主要受欧盟油菜籽产量减少和加拿大 油菜籽产量低于预期影响。 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2700至2760区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，需求良好和技术性买盘支撑，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.31% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The demand side showed a decrease in inventory for some sample enterprises, and the cost side had different trends for different raw materials. The market is expected to see strengthened demand next month, with potential inventory reduction, and the supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some利多 factors such as manufacturers' production cut plans and a decrease in imports from Chile, while利空 factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends and insufficient demand from the power battery end [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.31% [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 93,672 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,499 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32% [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 68,421 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.02%, with a production profit of 1,755 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,292 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 6,997 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production enthusiasm [8]. - **Base Difference**: On August 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 3,360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 51,958 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.18%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,888 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.18%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.42%. The total inventory was 141,726 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk Surface**: The MA20 of the disk surface is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, with potential inventory reduction. The CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat daily and lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.86% to 2.75% [14]. - **Base Difference**: The base difference of different contracts showed an upward trend, with the increase ranging from 35.43% to 81.40% [14]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 14,443, a 14.60% increase from the previous value [14]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and other upstream products had different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some showing slight decreases or increases [14]. - **Prices of Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of cathode materials and lithium batteries also had different trends, with most showing only slight changes [14]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Overview - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different changes, and the production and processing costs of lithium spodumene also had corresponding trends [16]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The production and inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials showed different changes, and the monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron also had corresponding trends [16]. 3.4 Other Supply - Related Data - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore had different trends over time [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The production, import, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources and grades showed different trends over time [27]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The production, export, and capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [34]. 3.5 Cost - Profit Data - **Lithium Compound Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and recycled lithium, showed different trends over time [39][42][45]. 3.6 Inventory Data - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. 3.7 Demand - Related Data - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, shipment, and export of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [50]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [56][59]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time [62][64]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, export, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends over time [66][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [74][75].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-06甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：基本面分化加剧，预计甲醇后期区域性走势特征凸显。港口市场，预计本周进口到货集中下，港口累库概 率较大，同时浙江煤制烯烃装置停车检修加上行业淡季，一定程度上拖累整体需求，预测本周港口市场偏弱调整为主， 需持续关注进口到货及宏观外围消息。内地方面，虽然甲醇开工处于增加趋势，但内地企业库存偏低短期供应无压力， 叠加烯烃装置重启以及西北CTO企业仍有外采需求，供需基本面健康对内地甲醇价格有支撑，但同时受港口弱势行情拖 累，预计后期内地甲醇维持窄幅震荡调整阶段；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2410元/吨，09合约基 ...

1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.7555%，环比增加3.835个百分 点，全国样本企业出货27.24万吨，环比增加1.26%,样本企业产量为58万吨，环比增加 12.40%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.4万吨，环比减少5.91%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为33.1%，环比增加0.15个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 ...