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大越期货沪铜周报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:35
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose significantly, with the main Shanghai copper contract up 3.2%, closing at 82,470 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and force majeure at an Indonesian copper mine stimulated the price increase. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, spot trading is mainly for刚需, and copper inventories have decreased. [4] - The copper market will be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. [12] 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Last week, the main Shanghai copper contract rose 3.2% to 82,470 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and an Indonesian copper mine's force majeure stimulated the price increase. Domestically, downstream consumption willingness is average, and spot trading is mainly for刚需. LME copper inventories were 144,400 tons, slightly decreasing, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 7,035 tons to 98,779 tons. [4] b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed data provided. [10] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market will be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. [12][15] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are decreasing, and bonded area inventories remain low. [16][19] c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are at a low level. [22] - **CFTC Position**: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out. [24] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed data provided. [27] - **Import Profit**: No detailed data provided. [30] - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed data provided.
大越期货锰硅周报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost support for silicon manganese remains strong recently. Manganese ore prices are generally stable with minor fluctuations due to inventory pressure, and transportation costs in northern main production areas have increased slightly, raising the overall production cost of alloys [2]. - The silicon manganese futures market has been fluctuating weakly this week, and market sentiment is cautious. Production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia factories has not changed much. With few market incentives, the market is in a wait - and - see mode with low willingness to quote prices, and the difference in spot trading prices between the north and the south is not significant [2]. - This week, steel mills in the north and south are increasingly inclined to lower prices in their tenders for silicon manganese, with prices concentrated at 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton (including tax and delivered to the factory), indicating weak demand for alloys [2]. - Currently, the fundamental driving force of the silicon manganese market is limited. More attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. It is expected that the price of silicon manganese alloy will fluctuate within a narrow range before the National Day, and the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: There is a graph showing the monthly production capacity of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises, but no specific analysis is provided [6][7]. - **Annual Output**: The annual output of silicon manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and the whole of China is presented in a graph, without specific analysis [8][9]. - **Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率**: Graphs show the weekly and monthly output of Chinese silicon manganese and the weekly operating rate of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises, without specific analysis [10][11]. - **Regional Output**: Graphs display the monthly output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi, without specific analysis [12][13]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: Graphs show the monthly purchase prices of silicon manganese by various steel enterprises such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, etc., without specific analysis [15][16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Graphs show the weekly daily average hot metal output and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises, without specific analysis [17][18]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Graphs show the monthly import and export volumes of Chinese silicon manganese ferroalloy, without specific analysis [19][20]. Manganese Silicon Inventory - Graphs show the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of silicon manganese inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region, without specific analysis [21][22]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: Graphs show the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon, southern Africa, and Australia to China, without specific analysis [23][24]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: Graphs show the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China, without specific analysis [25][26]. - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: Graphs show the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian high - grade manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, without specific analysis [27][28]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Graphs show the daily prices of various manganese ores in Tianjin Port, without specific analysis [29]. - **Regional Cost**: Graphs show the daily production costs of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi, without specific analysis [30][31]. Manganese Silicon Profit - **Regional Profit**: Graphs show the daily profits of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi, without specific analysis [32][33].
大越期货玻璃周报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures first rose and then fell. The closing price of the main contract FG2601 increased by 2.96% compared with the previous week, reaching 1252 yuan/ton. The spot price of white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1148 yuan/ton, up 6.30% from the previous week [3]. - The fundamentals of the glass industry show limited improvement. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [3]. - The main logic is that glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream has carried out phased replenishment, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range volatile manner [6]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1252 yuan/ton, up 2.96% from the previous week. The spot benchmark price was 1148 yuan/ton, up 6.30%. The main basis was - 104 yuan/ton, down 23.53% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1148 yuan/ton, up 6.30% from the previous week [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit - Not detailed in the report Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%. The number of operating production lines was at a historical low in the same period [21]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 160,700 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [23]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [27]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 59.355 million weight boxes, down 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [4]. Bearish Factors - The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period [5]. - The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic. Traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [5]. - The market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [5].
大越期货纯碱周报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures first rose and then fell. The closing price of the main contract SA2601 decreased by 1.90% compared to the previous week, reaching 1293 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, a 2.04% drop from the previous week. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain at a high level next week, with an estimated output of 770,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. The demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average, mainly on - demand, with pre - holiday inventory replenishment and more low - price transactions. The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1651,500 tons as of September 25, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, but still at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1318 yuan/ton to 1293 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.90%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1225 yuan/ton to 1200 yuan/ton, a 2.04% decrease. The main basis remained unchanged at - 93 yuan/ton [8]. II. Soda Ash Spot Market 1. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [18]. 2. Soda Ash Operating Rate, Capacity, and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 89.12%. The weekly output was 776,900 tons, including 430,100 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 55.36% [21][24][26]. 3. Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [27]. III. Fundamental Analysis - Demand 1. Soda Ash Production - Sales Ratio - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash was 113.40% [30]. 2. Soda Ash Downstream Demand - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% was stable [33]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1651,500 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [40]. V. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [41].
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-9-29)-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the short - term price may be mainly stable, with a possible weak and stable operation in the short term. The supply increase is limited due to strict safety inspections, demand is stable but downstream's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited, and inventory has decreased slightly [3]. - For coke, the short - term price may remain stable. The inventory level of coke at coking enterprises is not high, some enterprises have increased production - limiting willingness, and the pre - holiday procurement enthusiasm of steel mills has increased, but the terminal demand is weak [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Strict safety inspections limit supply growth, downstream demand is stable, coal mine shipments are smooth, and short - term coal prices may be stable; neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1285, basis is 88.5, spot premium over futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week; bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - Main position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term raw material demand remains high, but the steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may run weakly and stably [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke supply is stable, coking enterprises maintain normal production, but profits are under pressure due to rising raw material coal prices; neutral [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1610, basis is - 82.5, spot discount to futures; bearish [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [7]. - Main position: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [7]. - Expectation: The inventory level of coke at coking enterprises is not high, some enterprises have increased production - limiting willingness, and the pre - holiday procurement enthusiasm of steel mills has increased. It is expected that the short - term coke price may remain stable [6]. Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on September 25, 2025, including the prices and price changes of various types of coking coal at different ports [10]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].
大越期货锰硅早报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental driving force of the silicon-manganese market is limited, and more attention should be paid to emotional changes. It is expected that the price of silicon-manganese alloy will fluctuate within a narrow range before the National Day [3]. - The basis of the 01 contract is -48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [3]. - The inventory of 63 independent silicon-manganese enterprises in the country is 221,800 tons, and the average available days of inventory for 50 steel mills in the country is 15.49 days, which is neutral [3]. - The MA20 is flat, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, which is neutral [3]. - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [3]. - It is expected that the price of silicon-manganese will fluctuate this week, and SM2601 will fluctuate between 5,800 and 6,020 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese-Silicon Supply Capacity - There is a chart showing the monthly production capacity of silicon-manganese enterprises in China [7][8]. Annual Production - There is a chart showing the annual production of silicon-manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and the whole country [9][10]. Weekly, Monthly Production and Operating Rate - There is a chart showing the weekly and monthly production of silicon-manganese in China and the weekly operating rate of silicon-manganese enterprises in China [12][11]. Regional Production - There are charts showing the monthly production of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average production of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [13][14]. Manganese-Silicon Demand Steel Tendering Purchase Price - There are charts showing the monthly purchase prices of silicon-manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron & Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. [16][17]. Daily Average Hot Metal and Profitability - There is a chart showing the weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China [18][19]. Manganese-Silicon Import and Export - There is a chart showing the monthly import and export quantities of ferromanganese-silicon in China [20][21]. Manganese-Silicon Inventory - There are charts showing the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon-manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of silicon-manganese inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region [22][23]. Manganese-Silicon Cost Manganese Ore Import Volume - There is a chart showing the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon to China, from southern Africa to China, and from Australia to China [24][25]. Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days - There are charts showing the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China [26][27]. High-Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory - There is a chart showing the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port [28][29]. Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - There is a chart showing the daily prices of South African semi-carbonate manganese ore, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese ore in Tianjin Port [30]. Regional Cost - There is a chart showing the daily cost of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [31][32]. Manganese-Silicon Profit - There is a chart showing the daily profit of silicon-manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [33][34].
大越期货沪铝周报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:34
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated. The main contract fell 0.24%, closing at 20,745 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the carbon - neutral policy, long - term capacity control, weak demand due to domestic real - estate suppression, the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US increasing steel and aluminum tariffs all had a negative impact on domestic aluminum prices, affecting consumption. Domestically, demand has entered the peak season, awaiting consumption recovery. Last week, LME inventory was 517,700 tons, a slight increase from the previous week, while SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 3,108 tons to 124,626 tons [3]. 3) Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾 - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated. The main contract fell 0.24%, closing at 20,745 yuan/ton on Friday. Negative factors such as capacity control, weak demand, policy changes, and tariff increases affected aluminum prices. Domestically, demand entered the peak season, awaiting recovery. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased [3]. 3.2基本面(库存结构) - **供需平衡表**: The Chinese annual supply - demand balance sheet for aluminum (in 10,000 tons) shows that from 2018 - 2024, there were supply shortages in most years, except for a 150,000 - ton surplus in 2024. For example, in 2018, the supply shortage was 476,000 tons; in 2019, it was 686,100 tons; in 2020, it was 13,000 tons; in 2021, it was 142,000 tons; in 2022, it was 299,800 tons; in 2023, it was 43,000 tons [11]. 3.3市场结构 - **期现价差**: No specific content provided. - **进口利润**: No specific content provided.
铁矿石早报(2025-9-29)-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply-side arrivals have decreased this month, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production while the trade war is easing; the overall situation is neutral [2]. - Regarding the basis, the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 828, with a basis of 38; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 844, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; this is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14,450.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; this is neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward; this is neutral [2]. - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short positions are decreasing; this is bearish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan to reduce production capacity is impacting the market, suggesting a high - level consolidation mindset [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrivals have decreased this month, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there will be crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot is at a premium to futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventories are 14,450.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2]. - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward; neutral [2]. - Main Position: Net short position, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing, and the production capacity reduction plan is impacting the market, with a high - level consolidation mindset [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - Import losses exist [6]. - Downstream steel prices are rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipments will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].
大越期货油脂早报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The supply of beans and oils has increased due to Argentina's tariff policy, leading to an overall correction in oilseeds. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro - level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,260, with a basis of 98, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,150, with a basis of - 86, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,300, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,400 [4]. 4. Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [23]. - **Demand**: Includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [14].
大越期货玻璃早报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:34
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证号:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-29 每日观点 玻璃: 1、基本面:玻璃生产利润回落,行业冷修高位,开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位;下游深加工 订单整体偏弱,不及往年同期,地产终端需求疲弱;偏空 2、基差:浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1148元/吨,FG2601收盘价为1252元/吨,基差为-104元,期 货升水现货;偏空 3、库存:全国浮法玻璃企业库存5935.50万重量箱,较前一周减少2.55%,库存在5年均值上方运 行;偏空 4、盘面:价格在20日线上方运行,20日线向上;偏多 5、主力持仓:主力持仓净空,空增;偏空 6、预期:玻璃基本面疲弱,短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多: 1、"反内卷"政策影响下,浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空: ...