Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market expected it to be bearish, with limited upside for basis and absolute prices to fluctuate with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price was expected to be sorted at a low level before the holiday. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, September cargo was traded at 01 - 73~75, with prices negotiated around 4570 - 4605. Mid - October cargo was traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to 01, and late - October cargo at a discount of 50 to 01. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 74 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4590, 01 contract basis was - 56, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: PTA futures rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA plants reduced or stopped production due to typhoons, and polyester sales improved. The spot basis strengthened slightly, but the market remained bearish, with limited upside for the basis [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. Night - session trading was weak, with spot trading at a premium of 57 - 62 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The intraday basis recovered slightly, with September futures trading at a premium of 65 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4300, 01 contract basis was 77, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved last week, and polyester factory inventories decreased. However, the intention to hold positions before the holiday was weak. The price was expected to be sorted at a low level. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak [7]. 3. Today's Focus Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 607,000 barrels last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of an increase of 235,000 barrels. The approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season raised expectations of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant was shut down for maintenance and was expected to restart in November [9][10][11]. - **Negative factors**: The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels should be watched for a rebound in the market [12]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The report provided PTA supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on capacity, production, imports, exports, and inventory [13]. - **MEG**: The report provided ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production, imports, and inventory [14]. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The report presented historical price data for bottle chips, production margins, and various spreads for PTA and MEG from 2020 to 2025 [17][20][27]. Inventory Analysis - It included historical inventory data for PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. Upstream and Downstream开工率 - It showed historical开工率 data for PTA, xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][58]. Profit - It presented historical profit data for PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and other products from 2022 to 2025 [63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Nickel**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Downstream transactions were average, and there was no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The SHFE nickel 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, within the range of 120,000 - 123,800. Pre - holiday position control is recommended [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Spot stainless steel prices have declined. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, freight rates are strong, and nickel - iron prices are stable, with a firm cost line. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. The stainless steel 2511 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Downstream transactions were average, and there was no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. Nickel ore prices are firm, and due to the typhoon, mine loading and shipping may be delayed. Nickel - iron prices are stable, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. The destocking of stainless steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" period has slowed down. Although new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, the loading of ternary batteries is still decreasing, with limited increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. 3.1.2 Basis - The spot price is 122,450, and the basis is 1,070, indicating a bullish signal [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - LME inventory is 230,124, a decrease of 462. SHFE warehouse receipts are 25,153, an increase of 48, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.4 Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.6 Price Overview - On September 26, the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,380, a decrease of 1,610 from the previous day; the LME nickel was 15,155, a decrease of 85. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450, a decrease of 1,600 [13]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 26, the SHFE nickel inventory was 29,008 tons, with the futures inventory at 25,153 tons, a decrease of 826 tons and 690 tons respectively. The total inventory was 255,277 tons, a decrease of 414 tons [15][16]. 3.1.8 Import Cost - The import price is converted to 122,235 yuan/ton [28]. 3.2 Stainless Steel 3.2.1 Fundamentals - Spot stainless steel prices have declined. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, freight rates are strong, and nickel - iron prices are stable, with a firm cost line. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down [5]. 3.2.2 Basis - The average stainless steel price is 13,962.5, and the basis is 1,122.5, indicating a bullish signal [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The futures warehouse receipts are 87,505, a decrease of 298, showing a neutral signal. On September 26, the Wuxi inventory was 588,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 281,400 tons, and the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons month - on - month. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 623,300 tons, an increase of 5,400 tons month - on - month [5][20][21]. 3.2.4 Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral signal [5]. 3.2.5 Price Overview - On September 26, the stainless steel main contract was 12,840, a decrease of 90 from the previous day. The cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi was 13,950, unchanged from the previous day [13]. 3.3 Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On September 26, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [23]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost is 13,166, the scrap steel production cost is 13,512, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost is 16,867 [25]. 3.5 Multi - and Short - Term Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and the cost line support at 120,000 [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic output continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to operate SA2601 in the range of 1,250 - 1,300 [2] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: There are few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. Terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period of history. It is bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,293 yuan/ton, the basis is - 93 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. It is bearish [2] - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is a net short position, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and the production is expected to decline [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a high level in the same period of history; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - duty soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4] 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,315 | 1,293 | - 1.67% | | Low - end price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1,220 | 1,200 | - 1.64% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 95 | - 93 | - 2.11% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - duty soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [13] - **Soda Ash Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - duty soda ash by the north China ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and the profit by the east China co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [16] - **Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production Capacity Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 89.12%. The weekly production of soda ash is 776,900 tons, including 430,100 tons of heavy - duty soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19][22] - **Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [23] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 113.40% [26] - **Soda Ash Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [29] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Production (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [37]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to be volatile. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with a weak demand compared to previous years, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, with a weak demand, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and an increasing net short position of the main contract [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating. The agricultural film market is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand. The downstream operating rate has increased, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7130 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -39, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PE market will be volatile today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The downstream market is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic woven products is stable. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6750 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -148, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.1%, which is bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream products is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PP market will be volatile today [6]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130, up 10; the price of the 01 contract is 7169, up 27; the basis is -39, down 17; the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 509,000 tons, down 42,000; and the PE social inventory is 535,000 tons, down 12,000 [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6750, unchanged; the price of the 01 contract is 6898, up 21; the basis is -148, down 21; the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons, down 30,000; and the PP social inventory is 286,000 tons, up 3,000 [9]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4905 - 4965. The market is affected by multiple factors, including supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and export trends [9][13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [13] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7] 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 39.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 76.92%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 72.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7][8] 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 30.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2349.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.40%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Other Aspects - **Basis**: On September 25, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 135 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% [11] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [11] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is still high, while the demand - side recovery is weak. High - price goods have insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The profit of asphalt processing losses has decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. The current demand is below the historical average, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. It is predicted that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7][9][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise shipments were 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated device maintenance volume was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7] - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [7] - **Basis**: On September 25th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [7] - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - factory inventory was 653,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. The social, in - factory, and port inventories are all continuously decreasing [7] - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal [7] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased, which is a bearish signal [7] - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production to relieve supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish, and the inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts, including price changes, inventory changes, production changes, and profit changes. For example, the price of the 01 contract increased by 1.76% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [14] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [19][20] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [22][23] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [25][26][27] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [29][31] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to understand the price changes of asphalt in different regions [32][33] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [34][35] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [41][42] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [43][44] - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt [46][47] - **Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical production trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of local refineries [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production capacity utilization situation of asphalt [56][57] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the exchange [61][62][63] - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the asphalt market [65][66] - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory management situation of factories [68][69] - **Import and Export Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the import and export situation of asphalt [71][72] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical production trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of petroleum coke [77][78] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the overall demand situation of asphalt [80][81] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in highway construction [83][84] - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the impact of policies on asphalt demand [85] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in downstream machinery [87][88][90] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt for different uses [95][96] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the capacity utilization situation of downstream industries [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand situation of asphalt [103][104]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Fundamentals**: Overall, the fundamentals are considered neutral. Supply - side production is relatively high, with the weekly output of lithium carbonate last week at 20,363 tons, a 2.00% increase from the previous week and higher than the historical average. Demand - side inventories of downstream enterprises have increased, with the inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises at 96,217 tons, a 0.81% increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises at 17,545 tons, a 0.09% increase. Cost - side ore production is in a loss state, while the cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - led. It is expected that the production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase from August, and the import volume will be 19,500 tons, a 10.74% decrease from August. It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72,940 - 75,140 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **3.1 Daily Viewpoints** - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,363 tons, a 2.00% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the output in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase from August [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a 0.81% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 75,328 yuan/ton, a 0.04% daily increase, with a production profit of - 2,650 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production profit of - 8,042 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On September 25th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 290 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,456 tons, a 4.85% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,495 tons, a 2.09% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 137,531 tons, a 0.70% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [8]. **3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview** - **Futures Price**: The futures prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees. For example, the 11 - contract futures price increased by 1,160 yuan/ton, a 1.59% increase [13]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decrease from the previous day; the spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decrease from the previous day [13]. **3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore** - **Price**: The price of 6% spodumene was 856 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate was 1,875 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - **Production**: The monthly output of lithium ore has increased, with the monthly output of lithium ore from spodumene being 264,720 tons, a 4.96% increase; the monthly output of lithium ore from lithium mica being 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase [15]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium ore has decreased, with the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate being 470,599 tons, an 18.32% decrease. The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate was 2,741,411 kg, a 34.94% increase [15]. **3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate** - **Production**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, with the total weekly production being 20,363 tons, a 2.00% increase. The monthly output has also increased, with the monthly output in August 2025 being 85,240 tons [8][15]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 tons, a 57.79% increase; the monthly export volume was 274,1411 kg, a 34.94% increase [15]. **3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide** - **Production**: The monthly output of lithium hydroxide has decreased, with the monthly output in August 2025 being 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease [15]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly export volume of lithium hydroxide was 5,673 tons, and the monthly import volume was 1,224 tons [39]. **3.6 Inventory** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The smelter inventory was 34,456 tons, a 4.85% week - on - week decrease; the downstream inventory was 59,495 tons, a 2.09% week - on - week increase; the overall inventory was 137,531 tons, a 0.70% week - on - week decrease [8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The report also provides data on the monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide by source [49]. **3.7 Demand - Lithium Battery** - **Production**: The monthly output of power batteries has increased, with the total monthly output of power batteries being 62,500 GWh, an 11.81% increase [15]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased, with the sales volume being 1.395 million vehicles, a 10.54% increase [15]. **3.8 Demand - Ternary Precursor** - **Price**: The prices of various types of ternary precursors have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of the 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) increased by 600 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase [59]. - **Production**: The monthly output of ternary precursors has increased, with the monthly output in August 2025 being 78,440 tons [59]. **3.9 Demand - Ternary Material** - **Price**: The prices of various types of ternary materials have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of the 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) increased by 600 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase [65]. - **Production**: The weekly production rate of ternary materials has increased, with the weekly production rate at 90%, a 1.08% increase [65]. **3.10 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium** - **Price**: The price of phosphoric acid iron - lithium has decreased, with the price of high - end power - type phosphoric acid iron - lithium being 37,440 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decrease [13]. - **Production**: The monthly output of phosphoric acid iron - lithium has increased, with the monthly output in August 2025 being 85,240 tons [15]. **3.11 Demand - New Energy Vehicle** - **Production**: The production volume of new energy vehicles has increased, with the production volume being 1.391 million vehicles, an 11.91% increase [15]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased, with the sales volume being 1.395 million vehicles, a 10.54% increase [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, supply production scheduling has increased, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8920 - 9190. For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50430 - 52300 [6][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include cost - upward support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. Negative factors include slow post - holiday demand recovery and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week, indicating a rise in demand [6]. - **Inventory**: Crystalline silicon inventory is 204,000 tons, at a low level; silicone inventory is 73,200 tons, at a high level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 71,400 tons, at a high level. Social inventory increased by 0.74% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 7.11% week - on - week, and major port inventory increased by 0.84% week - on - week [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3,050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 245 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Market Indicators**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has risen, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8920 - 9190 [6]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 36.53% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of silicon wafers was 13.78 GW, a 1.00% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 162,300 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components has increased [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,900 yuan/ton [8]. - **Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,185 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. - **Market Indicators**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net long position of the main contract increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later, cost support remains stable, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50430 - 52300 [8]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of most futures contracts increased slightly, and the social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory showed different trends of increase or decrease. The production and cost - profit indicators of organic silicon and aluminum alloy also changed to some extent [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased slightly, the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, and the inventory decreased [16]. 3.4 Other Aspects - **Price and Basis Trends**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, as well as the price trends of polysilicon disks [18][22]. - **Inventory Trends**: It presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the inventory trends of polysilicon [25][16]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises are shown, including the production of different regions and specifications [26]. - **Cost Trends**: The cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions are presented, including Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [33]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of different types of silicon [35][38]. - **Downstream Market**: The market conditions of industrial silicon downstream industries, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, are analyzed, covering aspects such as price, production, inventory, and import - export [41][51][59].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-26甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：多空并存下，预计本周国内甲醇市场或震荡整理为主。内地方面，随着部分下游用户节前备货进入尾声， 传统下游需求或弱化，以及假期临近运输受限贸易商持货意愿不强，另外港口高库存对其周边地区均有一定制约，后期 内地甲醇上涨或有一定压力。但同时产区甲醇工厂库存紧张，贸易商做空谨慎，以及运费上涨对销区价格有一定托底， 预计内地甲醇回调空间同样有限。港口方面，短期看，新兴下游烯烃装置重启和节前备货对市场尚有支撑；中期看，港 口累库预计持续至10月，但伊朗开工下降和国内旺季需求有潜在利多；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为227 ...

2025-09-26原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：国际文传电讯社援引俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克报道，俄罗斯政府计划禁止不生产柴油的供应商 出口柴油，禁令将持续到今年年底，诺瓦克表示政府还考虑将目前的汽油出口禁令延长至今年年底； 乌方消息人士称，袭击行动导致位于俄罗斯新罗西斯克港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端设备瘫痪， 相关设施每日出口原油约200万桶；印度官员再次向特朗普政府表明，若要该国炼油商大幅削减俄罗斯 石油进口，美方需允许其从受制裁的伊朗和委内瑞拉购买原油；中性 2.基差：9月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.83元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69 ...