交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-10-29） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价839，基差46；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价857，基差64，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存15109.49万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率开始高位回落，综合库存小幅回落。需求端，农业需求受天气 影响有所回升，工业需求显著偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价差较大但有所回 落，出口量提升。国内尿素整体仍供过于求，但行情短期预计回暖。交割品现货1590（+0），基 本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-45，升贴水比例-2.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存184万吨（-20.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面反弹，工业需求偏弱，农业需求回升，国际尿素价格偏强出口量 提升，国内整体供过于求仍明显，短期价格预计回暖，预计UR今日走势震荡偏强 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 2、出口回升 • 3、短期日产回落 • 利空 • 1、国内供过于求 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 尿素早报 2025-10-29 大越期货投资咨询部 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend sideways to the upside today due to factors such as the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the continuation of peak-season demand for agricultural films, and neutral industrial inventories [4] - PP is also expected to trend sideways to the upside today, supported by the same factors as LLDPE and the peak-season demand from downstream industries [6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak-season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production starts, while production starts for other films have declined after inventory replenishment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7040 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 55, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 565,000 tons (-15,000), indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with limited support from crude oil on the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 639,000 tons (-40,000), indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with supply at a low level and showing signs of a slight rebound, while terminal demand remains sluggish. The report anticipates that the glass market will mainly experience a volatile and weak trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1113 yuan/ton, showing a 1.64% increase; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - sized sheets was 1044 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease; the main basis was - 69 yuan/ton, a 60.47% increase [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized sheets in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1044 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis Cost - side No specific content was summarized in the given text. Production and Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, and the daily melting volume was 161,300 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history but showing signs of stabilization and recovery [23][25]. Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. Downstream processing plant orders were generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand was sluggish [29]. Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, a 3.64% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. Negative Factors - Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [5]. Main Logic - Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there have been more supply - side disturbances recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, so it is expected that the glass market will mainly show a volatile trend [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,239 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,185 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 54 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price decreased by 0.56%, the Shahe price decreased by 0.42%, and the basis decreased by 3.57% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process was - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by East China combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. Capacity and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 84.94%. The weekly output was 74.06 tons, including 41 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. Demand Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% was stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline, and the demand for soda ash weakened [27]. Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, etc. [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The daily melting volume of float glass was stable [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the terminal demand declined, the inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry had not been effectively improved [4].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，个别主流供应商有出货，现货基差变动不大。本周主流在01贴水 80~83附近成交，11月中上在01贴水75成交，价格商谈区间在4505~4560附近。11月下在01-70~73有成交。今日主流现货基差在 01-81。中性 6、预期：周内受下游聚酯产销提振，PTA现货基差小幅走强，市场成交重心逐步向11月偏移，绝对价格方面，预计短期内仍跟 随成本端震荡运行，关注装置变动情况。 2、基差：现货4535，01合约基差-79，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.07天 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is -610 with the spot at 14750, showing a bearish signal. Exchange and Qingdao region inventories are decreasing week - on - week, with the former also decreasing year - on - year and the latter increasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation. The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, also neutral. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sign. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 28 [8] Inventory - Exchange inventories have been continuously decreasing recently, and Qingdao region inventories are also continuously decreasing [14][17] Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are also at a record high for the same period [23][29][32] Basis - The basis strengthened on October 28 [35] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢,自由港印尼矿区减产事件 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21160，基差20，升水期货，偏多。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌3860吨至 118168吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、美国全面关税超预期。 2、全球经济并不乐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures contract ZN2512 will show a trend of fluctuating upward, with the LME zinc inventory and warrants continuing to decline while the SHFE warrants remaining at a high level [2][19]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons, and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 9.0885 million tons, and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 22,310, and the basis was 0, showing a neutral stance [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,547 tons to 68,271 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Market Trend**: The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, suggesting a bullish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main players held a net short position, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. 3.2 October 28 Zinc Futures Market Quotes - The trading volume of zinc futures on October 28 was 201,703 lots, with a total trading value of 2.25645709 billion yuan. The open interest was 209,097 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots [3]. 3.3 October 28 Domestic Spot Market Quotes - **Zinc Concentrate**: The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 3,200 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 105 US dollars/thousand tons, both remaining unchanged [4]. - **Zinc Ingot**: The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,260 - 22,360 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,180 - 22,280 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,275 - 22,375 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,305 - 22,405 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 16 - 27, 2025) - As of October 27, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 164,700 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to October 20 and an increase of 12,000 tons compared to October 23 [5]. 3.5 October 28 Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipt Report - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the SHFE on October 28 were 68,271 tons, an increase of 2,547 tons. Among them, Guangdong had 38,470 tons, and Tianjin had 29,801 tons [7]. 3.6 October 28 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, with registered warrants of 28,425 tons and cancelled warrants of 6,825 tons, accounting for 19.36% [8]. 3.7 October 28 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - The prices of 50% zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 70 yuan/ton. For example, in Jiyuan, it was 17,390 yuan/ton; in Chenzhou, it was 17,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.8 October 28 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 60 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22,540 yuan/ton; from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 21,970 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 September 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In September 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15]. 3.10 October 28 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade varied by region, ranging from 3,000 to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. The imported processing fee for 48% grade was 105 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. 3.11 October 28 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2512, the total trading volume of members was 204,047 lots, an increase of 23,222 lots. The total long position was 83,603 lots, an increase of 523 lots, and the total short position was 78,964 lots, a decrease of 114 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel) 2512 is to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy around the 20 - day moving average, testing the cost support. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are some short - term factors affecting the market [2]. - The view of Stainless Steel 2512 is to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Price Overview - **Nickel Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 28, the price of SHFE Nickel main contract was 120,560 yuan, down 1,840 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel was 15,245, down 90; the price of Stainless Steel main contract was 12,750 yuan, down 65 yuan. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,150 yuan, down 900 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,400 yuan, down 900 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 121,500 yuan, down 750 yuan; nickel beans were 123,550 yuan, down 750 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel Spot Prices**: Cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi remained at 13,800 yuan; in Foshan, it was 13,750 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Hangzhou, it remained at 13,700 yuan; in Shanghai, it remained at 13,750 yuan [11]. 3.2. Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 28, LME nickel inventory was 251,436 tons, an increase of 198 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons; the total inventory was 282,821 tons, an increase of 1,803 tons [14]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On October 24, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,100 tons, in Foshan was 302,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 649,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons. As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,896 tons, unchanged from the previous day [18][19]. 3.3. Cost - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On October 28, the price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, unchanged; to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 926.5 yuan per nickel point, down 2 yuan; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost was 12,904 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,125 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,718 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 122,324 yuan per ton [28]. 3.4. Fundamental Factors - **Nickel Fundamentals**: The price of nickel ore is firm, the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, and mines are holding prices. The price of ferronickel is stable with a slight decline, and the cost line has loosened downward. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Stainless Steel Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel has decreased slightly. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, the freight is stable, the price of ferronickel is stable with a slight decline, the cost line has moved down, and the inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly [4]. 3.5. Basis - **Nickel Basis**: The spot price was 122,150 yuan, and the basis was 1,590 yuan, showing a bullish signal [2]. - **Stainless Steel Basis**: The average price of stainless steel was 13,750 yuan, and the basis was 1,000 yuan, showing a bullish signal [4]. 3.6. Market Sentiment (Position) - **Nickel Market Sentiment**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has increased, showing a bearish signal [2].