交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-6） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期市场观望情绪升温，影响近两日线上竞拍流拍现象增加，且部分煤种成交价格小幅下 跌，竞拍情绪稍有走弱，考虑煤矿多有预售订单待执行，焦企短期仍有一定补库需求，煤企挺价意愿较 强，产地煤矿报价多暂稳为主；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1040，基差-142；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦企经过连续五轮提涨，利润有所修复，当前开工高稳，加之终端高铁水支撑当前需求， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as the peak production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,962, with a basis of 644, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,708, with a basis of 93, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Current Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market of nickel has a slight correction, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel are weakly stable, with some quotes rising, but the cost line remains low. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season from July to August, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has a slight increase this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2509 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel has increased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is weakly stable, the ocean freight is firm, and the price of ferronickel is weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line is still low, and the stainless - steel consumption has entered the off - season. The stainless steel 2509 contract will also fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Changes** - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview**: On August 5th, the price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 120910 yuan, up 280 yuan from the previous day; the price of London nickel was 15055 dollars, down 50 dollars; the price of stainless - steel's main contract was 12960 yuan, up 35 yuan. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121900 yuan, up 650 yuan [12]. - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On August 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, down 1 dollar; the high - nickel ferronickel was 916 yuan/nickel point, up 2 yuan [24]. **Inventory Changes** - **Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: As of August 5th, LME nickel inventory was 211254 tons, an increase of 2172 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 20923 tons, a decrease of 247 tons [15]. - **Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: As of August 5th, stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. On August 1st, the national stainless - steel inventory was 111.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 million tons compared with the previous period, but the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 0.67 million tons [19][20]. **Cost Information** - **Stainless - Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12807 yuan, the waste - steel production cost was 13477 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16399 yuan [26]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price of nickel was 121536 yuan/ton [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2509 is expected to be weak with oscillations. The previous trading day saw a rebound in Shanghai Zinc with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with more reduction in short positions. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is rising but in the weak area, the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is increasing while the short - side strength is decreasing, and the long - side has a slight advantage [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons and consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons and consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons. The overall situation is considered bullish [2]. - The basis is - 40 with the spot price at 22340, which is neutral [2]. - On August 5th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4725 tons to 92275 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 100 tons to 14807 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating rebound and closed below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is neutral [2]. - The main positions are net short, with longs turning to shorts, which is bearish [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On August 5th, for the zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange, different delivery months had various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the 2509 contract had a previous settlement of 22205, an opening price of 22330, a high of 22395, a low of 22250, a closing price of 22380, a settlement reference price of 22315, a price increase of 175, a trading volume of 85449 lots, a trading value of 953599340 yuan, and an open interest of 98472 lots with a decrease of 4253 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On August 5th, in the domestic main spot markets, zinc concentrate price in the material area was 17010 yuan/ton with an increase of 80 yuan/ton; zinc ingot price was 22340 yuan/ton with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price was 4083 yuan/unit with an increase of 3 yuan/unit; galvanized pipe price was 4484 yuan/ton with an increase of 1 yuan/ton; zinc alloy price in Ningbo was 22850 yuan/ton with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; zinc powder price in Changsha was 27360 yuan/ton with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; zinc oxide price in Taizhou was 20700 yuan/ton with no change; and secondary zinc oxide price in Lin was 7742 yuan/ton with a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory Statistics - From July 24th to August 4th, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 8.08 million tons to 8.72 million tons. Compared with July 28th, the inventory increased by 0.36 million tons, and compared with July 31st, it increased by 0.28 million tons [5]. - On August 5th, the SHFE zinc warrant report showed a total of 14807 tons with a decrease of 100 tons, mainly due to a 100 - ton decrease in Tianjin's warehouse [6]. - On August 5th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4725 tons to 92275 tons, and the注销占比 (cancellation ratio) was 47.33% [7]. Price Summaries - On August 5th, the prices of zinc concentrate in major domestic cities were mostly around 17010 yuan/ton with an increase of 80 yuan/ton, except for some areas like Hechi (16810 yuan/ton), Longnan (16960 yuan/ton), and Chifeng (16910 yuan/ton) [9]. - On August 5th, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 130 yuan/ton. For example, Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter's 0 zinc ingot was 22660 yuan/ton, and Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry's 0 zinc ingot was 22800 yuan/ton [13]. - On August 5th, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions varied. For 50% grade zinc concentrate, the fees ranged from 3400 - 4100 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% grade zinc concentrate processing fee was 70 US dollars/kiloton [17]. Trading and Position Ranking - On August 5th, for the Shanghai Futures Exchange member zinc trading and position ranking of the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 35478 lots and an increase of 14503 lots; in terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9092 lots and an increase of 98 lots; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9684 lots and a decrease of 933 lots [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-8-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量大幅下滑， 终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1250元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1271元/吨，基差为-21元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存179.58万吨，较前一周减少3.69%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，政策利好情绪消退，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-6 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1112元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1077元/吨，基差为35元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5949.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.87%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：政策利好消退，玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 3、"反内卷"市场情绪消退。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给下滑至同期较低水平 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral assessment [6]. - The basis is - 1010 with a spot price of 14450, showing a bearish sign [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, with a neutral situation [6]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, with a neutral assessment [6]. - The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sign [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [6][8]. - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on August 5th, and the basis weakened on August 5th [10][37]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [16][19]. - **Import**: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8]. - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao [8]. 3.4 Basis - The spot price is 14450, and the basis is - 1010, showing a bearish situation [6].

铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20510，基差-50，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增1737吨至117527吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 | 地方 地方 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent macro - atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and there is insufficient cost - side support. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity, and there is a lack of upward drive. However, as the basis weakens, the buying interest of traders has slightly increased, and the downward space is limited. Also, pay attention to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - For MEG, this week's ethylene glycol foreign vessel arrivals are relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase stage - by - stage. In August, the ethylene glycol fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the domestic output increase is delayed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will have a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, so pay attention to the cost - side and device changes [7]. - The influencing factors include that the supply - demand expectation of PTA will improve in August due to some device overhauls, but the terminal demand is weakening as it is the end of the export rush and the domestic demand off - season [9]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - aspect. Pay attention to the cost - side, and for the upward rebound of the futures price, pay attention to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level. The spot trading atmosphere slightly improved, the basis was weak, and the trading was mainly between traders. Some polyester factories sold goods. The mainstream suppliers also sold goods. The August goods were traded at a discount of 12 - 25 to the 09 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4650 - 4660 yuan/ton. The goods in the middle and upper part of September were traded at par with the 09 contract, and those in the lower part of September were traded at a premium of 5 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 19 [5]. - **MEG**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, the domestic ethylene glycol market weakened slightly, and the trading was general. The spot was traded at a premium of 78 - 80 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. In the afternoon, driven by the temporary shutdown of the Maoming Petrochemical device, the ethylene glycol futures price rose strongly. By the end of the session, the spot negotiation strengthened to a premium of 79 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the negotiation of recent shipments weakened slightly to around 520 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the negotiation center rose to 523 - 525 US dollars/ton in the afternoon driven by the unexpected shutdown news of the Maoming Petrochemical device. There were transactions of recent shipments at around 523 US dollars/ton during the day. In addition, there were transactions of Taiwan tender goods at around 525 US dollars/ton with a cargo volume of 2000 tons [8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PTA**: The spot price is 4660 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is - 22, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation. The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a negative factor. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position has increased, which is a negative factor [5][6]. - **MEG**: The spot price is 4460 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 61, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation. The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position has decreased, which is a negative factor [7][8]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol over time [12]. 3.5. Price - There are multiple price - related charts, including the spot price of PET bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG's basis, inter - month spread, spot spread, etc., which reflect the price trends and relationships of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2020 to 2025 [15][18][22][23][25][28][31][38]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis - There are inventory data charts of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers, etc., including factory inventory days, port inventory, and inventory days of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which reflect the inventory levels and trends of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2021 to 2025 [41][42][44][46][47][51]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - **Upstream**: There are charts showing the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain from 2020 to 2025, which reflect the production activities of upstream products [52][53][55]. - **Downstream**: There are charts showing the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines in the PTA industry chain from 2020 to 2025, which reflect the production activities of downstream products [56][57][59]. 3.8. Profit - There are profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), etc., which reflect the profit trends of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2022 to 2025. It should be noted that the profit calculation is mainly for observing trends [60][63][66][67][69].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-06燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构小幅回升，但受供应充足及现货船货竞争性报价影响，含硫0.5%船 用燃料油现货升水进一步下跌至四个多月新低。贸易商表示，随着西方套利船货陆续抵达新加坡，8月新 加坡区域库存将显著累积；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油404.53美元/吨，基差为150元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为505.5美元/吨，基差 为157元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月30日当周库存为2027.9万桶，增加37万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓： ...