交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-10-30） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价845，基差41；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价864，基差60，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存15109.49万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线走平；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon increased last week, with demand also rising. The inventory situation varies among different downstream sectors. The cost support has increased, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9060. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, such as cost - rising support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply of polysilicon decreased slightly last week, but the October production plan is expected to increase. The demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends, with some experiencing production cuts. The cost is stable, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased, but different downstream sectors have different inventory and profit situations [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On October 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 345 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease; the main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The 2601 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8850 - 9060 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The October production plan is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends. Some are in a loss - making state, and the production plans for October have decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1375 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [8]. - **Expectation**: The short - term supply schedule will increase, and the medium - term is expected to adjust. The short - term production of downstream products will decrease, and the medium - term is expected to recover. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and the cost support is stable. The 2601 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of different contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon have minor fluctuations. The inventory situation of different regions and ports also shows different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of different contracts of polysilicon have decreased to varying degrees. The production, inventory, and export volume of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends [17]. 3.3 Other Information - There are also various trend charts in the report, including price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance trends of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [19][22][25].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-29原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：德国经济和能源部长莱歇告诉路透，美国政府已书面保证，俄油在德国的业务将免受新的 能源制裁，因为这些资产已不再由俄罗斯控制；以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下令军方立即在加沙发动"强 力打击"，以回应士兵在加沙遇袭事件，此举重新引发了市场对中东供应的担忧；印度石油公司高 管：绝不会完全停止购买俄罗斯原油；中性 2.基差：10月28日，阿曼原油现货价为65.60美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.70美元/桶，基差 22.24元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至10月24日当周API原油库存减少4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为76.57%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量31.628万吨，环比减少0.45%,乙烯 法企业产量15.036万吨，环比增加0.47%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.86%，环比增加.27个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为35.87%，环比增加.61个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为41.2%，环比增 加.2个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-10-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 1.国内水产养殖进入长假后淡季，现货市场供应短期进入偏紧预期，需 求端逐渐减少压制盘面预期，加拿大油菜籽进入收割阶段，但中加贸易问题 影响短期出口减少国内供应预期。 2.中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销调查初步裁定成立，并开始征收进口 保证金75.8%，一旦最终裁定成立，保证金将作为加征关税不予退还，但是 未来裁定结果尚有变数，等待中加贸易关系进一步发展情况明朗再行决定。 3.全球油菜籽今年产量保持增产，主要加拿大油菜籽产量高于预期。 4.俄乌冲突尚在进行，乌克兰油菜籽减产和俄罗斯油菜籽产量增加相对 抵消影响，全球地缘冲突未来仍有上升可 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 沥青期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅5 1% 同比增幅17 1% . , . | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33 0777% 环比减少 。 . ， | | | | | 4 31个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货29 066万吨 环比增加14 73% 样本企业产量为 ， . . , | | | | | 55 2万吨 环比减少11 . ， | 53% 样本企业装置检修量预估为67 6万吨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-29甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：内地方面，上游工厂库存不高，以及煤炭价格坚挺，成本端支撑加强，且当前产区甲醇价格已处于偏低水 平，对内地行情均有一定支撑。但同时当前内地整体开工仍处于偏高水平，局部地区如关中有一定供应压力。而烯烃利 润大幅挤压，当前成本压力明显据悉港口部分烯烃装置降负，对甲醇的负反馈逐步显现。另外港口库存居高不下，新一 轮合约周期即将开启，场内货源供应并不紧缺。业者对后市信心一般，预计内地涨跌空间有限。港口方面，受制裁事件 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-29投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8360，基差178，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 近期利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market waits for the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, while silver prices slightly recovered. There is still support from easing expectations, but gold prices face pressure due to optimistic trade negotiations. The downward pressure on gold prices persists with the return of optimistic trade expectations. The impact of the Fed's meeting on prices may be short - term [4][6]. - Gold: Despite the end of the decline in gold prices before the Fed's decision, the pressure from trade optimism remains. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 1 yuan/gram. The Fed's meeting may bring back the support of easing, but the impact time is short [4]. - Silver: Silver prices follow gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has slightly expanded to 420 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remains strong. Silver prices may be supported by the Fed's decision, but the impact is short - term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.01 basis points to 3.976%, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.73, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.28% to $3968.10 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market waited for the Fed's decision. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. COMEX silver futures rose 0.78% to $47.14 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and there are both support from easing expectations and pressure from trade optimism [4]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 3.24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Gold futures warehouse receipts are 87,015 kilograms and remain unchanged, which is bearish [5]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [5]. - **Silver**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and silver prices are slightly recovering. Silver is stronger than gold under the current situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,784 kilograms to 657,427 kilograms, which is bullish [7]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 08:30, Australia's Q3 CPI; throughout the day, the Hong Kong stock market is closed; time to be determined, US President Trump visits South Korea and attends the APEC leaders' summit; at 12:05, New Zealand's central bank governor Hawkesby talks about central bank independence; at 20:30 (possibly), the US September merchandise trade balance; at 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces the interest rate decision; at 22:00, the US September pending home sales index; after the European stock market closes, Deutsche Bank releases its earnings report; at 02:00 the next day, the Fed releases the FOMC monetary policy meeting's resolution statement; at 02:30 the next day, Fed Chairman Powell holds a regular press conference [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic for gold is that after Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality continues, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The influencing factors include both bullish factors such as global turmoil, increased expectation of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and bearish factors such as the end of interest rate cuts and the improvement of economic expectations [14][15]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.25% to 169,983, the short position decreased by 2.02% to 65,686, and the net position increased by 1.73% to 104,297 on October 28 compared to October 27. The SPDR gold ETF position continues to decrease [30][34]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7.41% to 322,389, the short position decreased by 0.46% to 251,213, and the net position decreased by 25.71% to 71,176 on October 28 compared to October 27. The silver ETF position continues to decrease but is higher than the same period in the past two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts stop falling and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [31][37][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent trends show weak external sugar prices while domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities in the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has a short - term rebound, but in the long - term, the divergence between internal and external trends is unsustainable. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure level of 5500 [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a 231,000 - ton supply gap for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. This is bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis is 297 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO predicted a narrowing supply gap to 200,000 tons (basically balanced); StoneX forecast a 2.77 - million - ton surplus; Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons; Datagro predicted a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; Covrig Analytics forecast a 4.2 - million - ton surplus; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicted a 400,000 - ton surplus; Green Pool forecast a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, the sugar production is estimated to be 11.2 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.9 million tons [37]. - **Import Cost**: In September 2025, the average price of ICE raw sugar was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar after 50% tariff was 5454 yuan per ton [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.