交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+50），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差67，升贴水比例3.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘 ...

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated August 5, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to adjust the structure of key industries. However, the short - term price increase driven by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. Currently, the spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7300 (-40), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4] Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 21, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [4] Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), also neutral [4] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4] Expectations - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The price increase driven by macro - stability policies has subsided, it is the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral [4] Influential Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, in July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term price increase and oil prices have declined. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak due to summer weather [7] Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 76, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, considered bullish [7] Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), showing a bearish trend [7] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, also bearish [7] Expectations - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The price increase driven by macro - stability policies has subsided, downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral [7] Influential Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been gradually decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate has generally been positive [17]

甲醇周报 （7.28 大越期货投资咨询部 -8.1 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国内甲醇现货价格 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：基本面分化加剧，预计甲醇后期区域性走势特征凸显。港口市场，预计下周进口到货集中 下，港口累库概率较大，同时浙江煤制烯烃装置停车检修加上行业淡季，一定程度上拖累整体需求，预测下 周港口市场偏弱调整为主，需持续关注进口到货及宏观外围消息。内地方面，虽然甲醇开工处于增加趋势， 但内地企业库存偏低短期供应无压力，叠加烯烃装置重启以及西北CTO企业仍有外采需求，供需基本面健康 对内地甲醇价格有支撑，但同时受港口弱势行情拖累，预计后期内地甲醇维持窄幅震荡调整阶段。 | | | | 国内甲醇价格 | （元/吨） | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（7.28-8.1） CONTENTS 目 录 一周数据变化 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 2 1、原料市场状况分析 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 781 | 768 | -13 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 803 | 790 | -13 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -4.74 | -1.69 | 3.05 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 1.3 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2660至2720区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕窄幅震荡，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-75，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周1.51万吨，周环比增加25.83%，去年同期3.4万吨，同比减 少44.12%。偏多 4.盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. Although there are some positive factors such as factory production cuts and reduced imports from Chile, the overall market is still affected by over - supply due to high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends and weak demand from the power battery end. The downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and it is predicted to reach 84,200 tons next month, a 3.27% increase [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,672 tons, a 1.27% week - on - week decrease, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,499 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may decline [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,189 yuan/ton, a 1.02% daily decrease, with a production profit of 2,136 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 75,292 yuan/ton, a 1.21% daily decrease, with a production loss of 6,850 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the enthusiasm for production scheduling is average [8]. - **Base Difference**: On August 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 09 contract was 2,430 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter's inventory was 51,958 tons, a 6.18% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,888 tons, a 7.18% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 141,726 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes below MA20. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: The CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily decrease and is lower than the historical average. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 67,360 - 70,480 [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore 01 increased by 0.61% from 69,140 to 69,560, and the base difference of 01 decreased by 37.41% from 2,860 to 1,790 [13]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, a 2.77% increase. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase. The monthly import of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25%, and the monthly import of lithium carbonate decreased by 16.31% [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 290,700 tons, a 1.86% increase. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate was 2,031,541 kg, a 115.75% increase. The monthly production of ternary materials was 68,640 tons, a 5.75% increase [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has also shown different trends in different years [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months. For example, in July 2025, the balance was 2,816 tons [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) has different trends. The monthly production in July 2025 was 81,530 tons. The monthly capacity also shows different levels [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate varies monthly. In July 2025, the balance was 2,682 tons [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has different trends in different years. The production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) also shows different situations [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different values in different months. In July 2025, the balance was - 3,149 tons [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and recycled materials have different trends. For example, the profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is positive, while that from lithium mica is negative [8][41][44]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of processes such as purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate also shows different trends [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects shows different trends. The overall inventory is higher than the historical average [8][49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters also shows different trends [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of batteries and the production of battery cells show different trends over time. The monthly production of battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries also change [53]. - **Inventory and Export**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the export volume of lithium batteries also show different trends [53][56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Production**: The price of ternary precursors and the production capacity utilization rate show different trends. The monthly production of ternary precursors also changes [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different values in different months. In July 2025, the balance was - 6,410 tons [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials and the cost - profit trend show different situations. The weekly operating rate and inventory of ternary materials also change [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/ Lithium Iron Phosphate - **Price and Production**: The price of phosphoric acid iron/lithium iron phosphate and the production capacity and production volume show different trends. The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate also changes [69][72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate shows different trends [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles show different trends over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index also change [77][78][81].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4080至4180区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆窄幅 震荡，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差178，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存645.59万吨，上周642.24万吨，环比增加0.52%， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data has severely hit the financial market, causing a notable decline in oil prices. The OPEC+ meeting on the weekend decided to continue increasing production in September, completely canceling the previous 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, which restricts the subsequent upward space of oil prices. In the short term, crude oil will oscillate at a low level. Currently, most of the negative news has been released. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs during the week and the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. There is a possibility that the US may impose sanctions on Russian energy, triggering a round of upward movement due to geopolitical concerns. The short - term trading range is between 510 - 515, and long - term investors can add positions on dips [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US trade representative indicated that Trump's tariffs on dozens of countries may continue. US July employment growth was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls of the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. OPEC+ agreed to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [3]. - **Basis**: On August 1st, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.99 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $73.06 per barrel. The basis was 18.53 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25th increased by 1.539 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 7.698 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 690,000 barrels. As of August 1st, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 5.249 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29th, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term trading range is 510 - 515, and long - term investors can add positions on dips [3]. 2. Recent News - OPEC+ reached an agreement at a video conference on Sunday to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September, marking the early completion of the exit from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan implemented by eight member countries in 2023. The meeting lasted only 16 minutes. The organization will retain the option to re - evaluate the suspension of about 1.66 million barrels per day of production, depending on market conditions. OPEC+ has scheduled a follow - up meeting on September 7th [5]. - US President Trump's new round of tariffs on dozens of trading partners caused a global stock market crash on Friday. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7th at 04:01 GMT [5]. - US July employment growth was weaker than expected, with the non - farm payrolls of the previous two months revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year wage increase remained at a high of 3.9% [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased. The decline rates were - 2.83%, - 2.79%, - 0.73%, and - 2.81% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil all decreased, with decline rates ranging from - 1.87% to - 2.79% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories in the US increased in the week ending July 25th [3][10][13]. 5. Position Data - As of July 29th, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3][17][18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.7555%，环比增加3.835个百分 点，全国样本企业出货27.24万吨，环比增加1.26%,样本企业产量为58万吨，环比增加 12.40%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.4万吨，环比减少5.91%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为33.1%，环比增加0.15个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为16 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is influenced by multiple factors, with supply pressure increasing and demand potentially remaining weak. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4960 - 5070 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is sluggish [14]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consumption inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are bearish. In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 324,580 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 127,700 tons, a 12.82% increase. The downstream overall开工率 was 42.05%, slightly increased, but still below the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production increased, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On August 1, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [11]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 345,340 tons, a 3.28% decrease. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 269,190 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 76,150 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 448,000 tons, a 4.91% increase. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, presenting a bearish situation [11]. - **Market Trend**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral situation [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, presenting a bearish situation [11]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream开工率 of different types of PVC enterprises [17]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [19]. - **Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread trends of different main contracts of PVC futures, providing information for spread trading analysis [25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials**: - **Lanthanum Carbon**: It includes the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of lanthanum carbon [29]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and maintenance loss of calcium carbide [32]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It presents the price, production, and inventory trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, and inventory of caustic soda [36]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC [40]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products of PVC. It also shows the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bond issuance, and infrastructure investment data [44]. - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. - **Ethylene - Based**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC, and import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [66].